Ethereum Price Surges to $4,693 on ETF Momentum and Fed Cut Expectations

Ethereum Pushes Higher as ETF Momentum and Institutional Demand Build

Ethereum (ETH-USD) continues to climb, trading near $4,693.53 after an +8.18% surge, closing the gap to just 6% below its all-time high. The rally follows a renewed wave of institutional interest, with U.S.-listed ETH ETFs reporting consistent inflows since launch. While Bitcoin ETFs have dominated headlines, Ethereum’s recent price action suggests capital rotation is accelerating. Trading volumes on CME ETH futures hit their highest level since March 2024, indicating deepening institutional participation. This shift aligns with growing demand from asset managers seeking yield and staking rewards unavailable in Bitcoin.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Political Pressure Create Macro Tailwinds

The macro backdrop remains highly supportive. The July U.S. CPI print at +2.7% y/y undershot consensus, reinforcing expectations of imminent monetary easing. Fed Funds Futures now price in a 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September, with increasing odds of a 50 bps move. Political pressure is intensifying as U.S. President Donald Trump has openly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting potential legal action and urging deeper cuts totaling 150 bps over the current easing cycle. Lower yields historically benefit ETH and broader crypto markets, both by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and by stimulating speculative flows into digital assets.

Layer-2 Adoption and Scaling Catalysts Strengthen Ethereum’s Position

On-chain data reveals Ethereum’s scaling ecosystem is expanding rapidly. Daily transactions across Layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base have reached record levels, with Arbitrum processing over 1.5 million transactions per day. Gas fees on mainnet remain elevated, maintaining strong incentives for migration to Layer-2 environments. This migration drives ETH demand indirectly, as all Layer-2 transactions settle back to Ethereum’s base layer. The upcoming “Pectra” upgrade, slated for later this year, aims to improve validator efficiency and boost staking rewards, further incentivizing ETH accumulation by long-term holders.

Corporate and Sovereign Participation Gains Traction

Ethereum is increasingly appearing in institutional and corporate treasuries. ETHZilla, formerly known as 180 Life Sciences, disclosed holdings of $350 million in ETH alongside $240 million in cash reserves, propelling its equity up 432% in a week. While Bitcoin remains the dominant treasury allocation, ETH’s staking yield potential and role in DeFi ecosystems are attracting attention from corporates seeking diversified blockchain exposure. Sovereign entities with indirect crypto stakes via public equities, such as Norway’s NBIM, are gaining ETH exposure through positions in Ethereum-heavy companies.

Technicals Point to $5,000 Test If Resistance Clears

ETH/USD remains in a steep ascending channel, with immediate resistance at $4,750. A daily close above this level could open the path to $5,000, which also aligns with psychological resistance and an extended Fibonacci projection. Support is firm at $4,450, where the 50-day moving average converges with prior consolidation zones. The RSI at 65 signals bullish momentum without being overextended, while MACD continues to print positive histogram bars. Open interest in ETH futures has risen modestly without excessive funding rates, suggesting the rally is being driven by spot accumulation rather than overleveraged longs.

ETH vs Competing Smart Contract Platforms

Solana (SOL-USD) and other Layer-1 competitors have outpaced ETH in short-term percentage gains, but Ethereum’s liquidity depth, developer base, and entrenched DeFi dominance preserve its macro advantage. Total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based protocols remains above $58 billion, far exceeding Solana’s $12 billion. This dominance, combined with the network’s staking economics, positions ETH as the primary beneficiary of risk-on flows into smart contract platforms.

Verdict: BUY with Targets at $5,000 and $5,400

Verdict: BUY, with a bullish bias reinforced by ETF flows, macro easing expectations, and Layer-2 adoption. A breakout above $4,750 could accelerate momentum toward $5,000 and $5,400. Risk level is moderate; a close below $4,450 would weaken the near-term bullish structure.

Supporting data:

• ETH price: $4,693.53 (+8.18%)

• CPI y/y: +2.7% (vs 2.8% est)

• Fed cut probability: 96% for Sept

• ETH ETF inflows: consistent since launch

• Layer-2 daily txns: 1.5M+ on Arbitrum

Ethereum’s narrative is shifting from speculative asset to yield-bearing, institutionally integrated blockchain infrastructure. With macro policy turning supportive and adoption metrics breaking records, the path of least resistance remains higher.

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