GBP/USD Price Forecast - Clings to 1.3650 Support As Bulls Eye Break Above 1.3700

GBP/USD – Rebound Holds Above 1.3650 As Dollar Momentum Fades

GBP/USD – Spot structure, range and immediate pivots

GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.36s to high-1.36s, holding clearly above the 1.3650–1.3660 band after recovering from the sharp post-BoE drop. Price failed to secure acceptance above the 1.3700–1.3729 ceiling, but the sequence of higher lows off 1.3600–1.3632 is intact. The market has effectively drawn a working range between support at 1.3632–1.3657 and resistance at 1.3700–1.3729, with a broader extension target at 1.3788 and the 1.38 handle. As long as daily closes stay above the 1.3630 region, that structure reflects a controlled pullback inside an up-slope rather than the start of a topping phase.

GBP/USD – Technical profile: ascending channel, EMAs and momentum

On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades inside an ascending channel, with the nine-day EMA trending above the 50-day EMA, which sits around 1.3518. Price remains comfortably above both moving averages, confirming that the near-term and medium-term bias is still pointed higher. The 14-day RSI around 55–56 stays above the mid-line without entering overbought territory, which leaves room for further upside before momentum looks stretched. A daily close below the rising nine-day EMA near 1.3650 would be the first warning that the short-term up-move is losing grip; a clean break under 1.3630 would signal a deeper re-pricing toward the prior congestion zone below 1.36.

GBP/USD – Tactical levels: 1.3657, 1.3632, 1.3700, 1.3729 and 1.3788

Intraday strategies around GBP/USD are concentrated on a narrow but well-defined ladder of levels. On the downside, 1.3657 and 1.3632 are mapped as long-entry areas on bullish hourly reversals, matching prior swing lows and the EMA support band. On the topside, 1.3700, 1.3729, and 1.3788 are mapped as sell-zones on bearish intraday signals, consistent with the last rejection from the 1.3729 area that produced a clean short move. That sets a functional map: buyers are willing to defend 1.3657 and 1.3632, while sellers are active from 1.3700 upward. A sustained break above 1.3729 would show that supply at that shelf has finally been absorbed and would open a path toward 1.3788–1.3800.

GBP/USD – USD background, DXY and cross-asset context

The broader USD backdrop still supports upside in GBP/USD. The dollar index stalled at a key Fibonacci resistance near 97.94, where the last recovery leg ended before sellers took control. Since that failure, USD weakness has been driven heavily by USD/JPY, where a sharp unwind in carry positioning knocked the pair lower from elevated levels and dragged DXY with it. At the same time, EUR/USD has pushed up into the 1.1909–1.1919 resistance band, while gold continues to test the $5,000–$5,100 zone, signalling persistent demand for dollar hedges and inflation protection. As long as DXY trades below the 97.9–98.0 cap, the dollar is not in a position to impose a sustained down-leg on GBP/USD; that leaves the pair free to grind higher within the channel rather than break down aggressively.

GBP/USD – GBP side: politics, growth concerns and relative performance

Sterling is not leading the major-FX performance table, but it is no longer under heavy pressure. Domestic political uncertainty and structural growth concerns keep a mild risk premium embedded in GBP, which explains why EUR/USD has rallied more cleanly while GBP/USD is still battling with 1.37 resistance. Even with that drag, the pound has retraced prior losses and is now trading near weekly highs above 1.3680, backed by the channel structure and positive EMAs. The message from price is straightforward: GBP is not being dumped, it is simply underperforming the strongest currencies while still participating in USD weakness. That profile is consistent with a rising but choppy GBP/USD, not a pair ready to roll over.

GBP/USD – Rate expectations: Bank of England versus Federal Reserve

The last Bank of England decision triggered the sharp slide that tested the lower band of support, but that shock is now largely priced in. The BoE has moved closer to an easing stance, yet UK inflation remains elevated enough to prevent an aggressive cutting path, which limits downside for GBP. On the other side, the Federal Reserve is also approaching a cutting phase, with markets sensitive to every jobs and inflation print for clues on timing. With UK policy drifting only gradually and the Fed facing softer pockets in US data, the rate differential no longer drives a clear bearish story for GBP/USD. Instead, it supports the current pattern: moderate GBP discount relative to the euro, but still enough carry and inflation to justify GBP/USD trading closer to 1.37 than 1.34 while the dollar is capped.

GBP/USD – Event risk: NFP, wages and short-term volatility bands

The delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls release is the immediate volatility trigger for GBP/USD. Market expectations point to US job growth around 70K after 50K previously, with unemployment near 4.4% and annual wage growth easing from 3.8% to roughly 3.6%. A softer-than-expected report, especially weaker wages, would reinforce dollar selling and likely drive a clean break through 1.3700–1.3729, putting 1.3788–1.3800 in play. A strong upside surprise, particularly in wages, would push yields higher and could force a fast drop back to 1.3657 and potentially 1.3632. The current structure makes those zones clear: 1.3630–1.3657 is the support band that must hold to keep the bullish map intact; 1.3700–1.3729 is the ceiling that needs a fundamental catalyst to give way.

GBP/USD – Medium-term roadmap and directional stance

From a structural standpoint, GBP/USD trades with a firm base and a defined ladder of triggers. Support is layered at 1.3680, 1.3657, and 1.3632, with deeper structural support at 1.3600. Resistance sits at 1.3700–1.3729 and then 1.3788–1.3800. Holding above 1.3630 keeps the ascending channel, bullish EMAs and positive RSI configuration valid and favors continued tests of the 1.37–1.38 band rather than a slide back into the mid-1.35s. A daily close below 1.3630 would break that pattern and revert the pair into a neutral, range-bound regime.

GBP/USD – Bias: buy-the-dip above 1.3630 with 1.3788–1.3800 in focus

Given the current price structure, technical signals and USD backdrop, the stance on GBP/USD is bullish with a buy-the-dip bias while price remains above 1.3630–1.3650. Dips into the 1.3657–1.3632 support band fit a constructive strategy as long as DXY stays capped under 97.9–98.0 and no extreme upside surprise in US data reverses the dollar. The primary upside focus sits on a sustained move into 1.3788–1.3800. Only a daily close below 1.3630 would neutralize that view and force a reassessment toward a flatter, more defensive outlook for GBP/USD.

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