EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Holds 1.17 as 1.18 Breakout Builds—Next Stop 1.1860?

EUR/USD Bulls Are Still Writing The Tape Above 1.1700—But The Next 24 Hours Decide If 1.1800 Breaks

EUR/USD Price Location And The “Why Now” Setup

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1720–1.1750 after snapping a four-day slide and rebuilding traction into Christmas-week liquidity. The pair is not rallying on hope. It is rallying on a concrete mix: a softer USD tone, rate-path repricing, and a market that is positioning into Tuesday’s US data with thinner risk limits. The key point is simple: above 1.1700, bulls still control the structure. Below that zone, the chart stops forgiving.

What makes this specific level range dangerous is how compressed the decision points are. Your closest “line in the sand” levels are stacked tightly: 1.1713 (short EMA support) sits almost on top of the channel floor near 1.1710, while the next magnet lower is the 50-day EMA at 1.1648. In low liquidity, price often jumps from one shelf to the next with minimal trading in-between.

EUR/USD Momentum Check: RSI Is Bullish, But Not Exhausted

On the daily read, the 14-day RSI at 61.63 is not a decoration. It’s a clean confirmation that upside pressure remains active. An RSI above 60 tends to keep dip-buying behavior alive, because it signals buyers are still defending pullbacks rather than distributing into strength.

A separate read from another desk placed RSI near 59, which is consistent with “bullish but not euphoric.” Those two numbers do not conflict. They describe the same condition from slightly different timing and framing: momentum is positive, but not yet at the kind of extreme that forces a violent mean reversion.

EUR/USD Trend Structure: The Ascending Channel Is Still In Control

The dominant technical backdrop is an ascending channel. EUR/USD is still holding slightly above that rising structure, which keeps the trend bias pointed upward as long as the channel floor holds. That matters because in trending markets, the channel boundary is not “support.” It’s the market’s preferred re-entry zone.

If the pair loses the channel, the move will not be “a small break.” It mechanically shifts the playbook from trend continuation to trend repair, and that is when the market starts leaning back toward moving averages like 1.1648 and then deeper reference lows.

EUR/USD Moving Averages: Short-Term Bulls Still Own The Alignment

The short-term trend stack stays constructive: the nine-day EMA is rising and remains above the 50-day EMA, which keeps the bias pointed higher. As long as EUR/USD remains above both, the market is signaling that pullbacks are corrective rather than the start of a reversal leg.

This is why the 1.1713 area matters more than it looks. It is not just a number. It is the front edge of the bullish moving-average “support belt,” and it aligns with the channel floor around 1.1710. When two independent tools land on the same zone, price tends to react there with force.

EUR/USD Resistance Map: 1.1800 Is Not A Guess—It’s A Cluster

The upside targets are built around clear clustering.

The first target is 1.1800, the psychological level. That level also aligns with the two-month high at 1.1804 printed on December 16. That pairing is why bulls keep circling it: psychology plus a recent swing high is where stops sit, where breakout orders stack, and where momentum traders demand proof.

If EUR/USD clears that resistance area cleanly, the next trend reference is the channel top near 1.1860. Beyond that, the chart’s next major historical waypoint is 1.1918, described as the highest level since June 2021. That is the zone where the market stops treating the rally as “a move” and starts treating it as a regime.

EUR/USD Support Map: The Market Has Two Floors Before It Breaks

The immediate support is tight and defined: 1.1713 (nine-day EMA) and ~1.1710 (channel base). If that area holds, the trend remains intact and dips remain buyable.

If that area breaks, the next structural shelf is the 50-day EMA at 1.1648. That is not optional support. It is where trend followers usually reassess whether the move is still “uptrend with pullback” or “failed breakout.”

Below that, the next major reference is 1.1589, the three-week low from December 1. If price gets there, the narrative changes. The market would be admitting that the entire post-mid-month rebound failed and the pair is back into deeper mean-reversion territory.

A separate framework also highlights 1.1680, 1.1600, 1.1550 as support zones, with 1.1770, 1.1830, 1.1900 as resistance zones. Those levels fit logically inside the same map: the 1.1680–1.1710 band is the first defense area; the 1.1830–1.1900 band is where the next breakout phase either confirms or stalls.

EUR/USD Macro Driver: The USD Side Is Softening Into Key Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping toward 98.60 is not just background noise. It shapes the probability distribution for EUR/USD. The market is leaning into Tuesday’s US Q3 GDP print, expected around 3.8% versus a prior 3.2% estimate. In normal liquidity, that’s a clean directional input. In holiday liquidity, it can be a volatility trigger.

The rate path is also a direct driver. Markets were pricing a 79% probability of an unchanged Fed decision in January, while the probability for a 25 bp cut sat near 21%. That rate distribution caps USD upside because it keeps the market in “wait and reassess” mode rather than “USD carry is back” mode.

EUR/USD Inflation And Sentiment: The Numbers That Hit The Dollar

The inflation impulse in the data mix is explicitly USD-negative.

Headline US CPI was cited at 2.7% YoY for November, down from 3.0% in October, against an expectation of 3.1%. Core CPI was cited at 2.6%, down from 3.0%, when the market expected no change. Right after that, DXY was referenced at 98.20, while EUR/USD hit 1.1750 and GBP/USD reached 1.3440.

Consumer confidence also matters in FX because it feeds the growth story that feeds rate expectations. The University of Michigan sentiment reading was cited at 52.9 for December, while inflation expectations were cited at 4.2%. That combination is toxic for the dollar: fragile confidence plus elevated inflation expectations increases policy uncertainty, which tends to flatten USD momentum rather than extend it.

EUR/USD Cross-Checks: GBP/USD Confirms The USD Tone

This is not only a euro story. GBP/USD holding around 1.3415 inside a rising channel reinforces the same USD narrative. The structure described support around 1.3350–1.3370, with a push above 1.3450 opening 1.3500. If sterling is bid while the dollar index is heavy, that is a consistent FX tape. It supports the case that EUR/USD rallies are not isolated.

EUR/USD Positioning Risk: Holiday Liquidity Makes Levels Matter More

This week is structurally different. Liquidity is thinner, and that amplifies “level behavior.” That means the market is more likely to overshoot resistance and snap back, or slice through support faster than normal.

So you treat levels like switches, not suggestions:
Above 1.1710–1.1713, bulls have structure.
Below 1.1710–1.1713, the market starts hunting 1.1680 and then 1.1645–1.1648 rapidly.
Above 1.1760, the market starts leaning hard into 1.1800–1.1804.

EUR/USD Tactical Bias: What The Data Actually Says To Do

You have multiple independent signals pointing in one direction:
Daily RSI is bullish at 61.63.
Short EMA is above longer EMA, with trend alignment intact.
Price is holding the ascending channel.
DXY is soft near 98.60, with 98.20 already referenced during recent weakness.
Rate expectations keep USD upside limited.

That is a bullish EUR/USD setup until proven otherwise by price.

EUR/USD Verdict: Buy, With Tight Invalidations

EUR/USD is a Buy while it holds above 1.1710–1.1713. The first upside objective is 1.1800–1.1804. If that breaks, the next objective is ~1.1860, then ~1.1918.

The trade is invalidated on a sustained break below 1.1710, because that shifts the market toward 1.1680 and then the 1.1645–1.1648 moving-average shelf. A deeper loss of structure brings 1.1589 back into play and flips the stance to neutral-to-bearish.

Net: momentum, structure, and USD conditions all support upside. The only thing bulls cannot lose is 1.1710–1.1713.

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