EUR/USD Price Today: Pair Cracks 1.1700 Toward 1.1684 as Brent Hits $115, US Durable Goods Surge 3.3%

EUR/USD is bleeding through the 1.1700 floor and trading at 1.1684 with a 0.17% to 0.22% intraday loss, falling back from a daily high near 1.1720 after a brutal sequence of macro catalysts stacked the deck firmly in favor of the dollar. The pair is sitting on a knife edge ahead of a binary 24-hour catalyst window that delivers Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference at 14:30 ET today, the Q1 GDP print and initial jobless claims Thursday morning, and the European Central Bank rate decision the same day with Christine Lagarde at the podium. The macro setup is uncomfortably one-sided. Brent crude (BZ=F) is up for an eighth consecutive session, testing $115 a barrel and pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to 98.66 to 98.85 with a 0.27% gain on the day. WTI crude (CL=F) sits at $103 to $105.25 with a 5% one-day rip on the extended Iran blockade story. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) jumped 5 basis points to 4.398%, pushing toward the 4.40% breakout level that historically marks a regime shift in fixed income. U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders for March exploded 3.3% versus the 0.6% consensus, with headline orders at +0.8% versus -1.2% prior, signaling that AI-driven business spending is accelerating rather than rolling over. March CPI printed at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% prior, with energy costs surging 12.5% on the month. German HICP missed badly at 2.9% versus the 3.0% consensus, with monthly inflation collapsing from 1.2% to 0.5% versus 0.8% expected — a print that gutted any near-term hawkish narrative the European Central Bank could lean on. The combination is poison for the euro: a U.S. economy printing strong activity data and rising inflation, a euro-zone economy printing softer prices and weakening growth indicators, and a geopolitical backdrop that hits oil-importing Europe far harder than the energy-exporting United States.

Why the Dollar Is the Cleanest Long Trade in G10 Right Now

The dollar's strength here is not narrative — it is mechanical. The United States is a net energy exporter and the marginal beneficiary of higher crude prices through trade-balance channels, while the euro zone runs structural energy deficits and absorbs the inflation shock through import costs that compress household disposable income. The DXY at 98.66 to 98.85 has rejected the 99.00 zone repeatedly across recent sessions but has refused to break beneath 98.20 to 97.80, which forms the lower band of the multi-week consolidation. Any clean break above 99.20 unlocks a path to 100.00, which would coincide with EUR/USD testing 1.1500 and below. The interest-rate differential channel adds the second leg. CME FedWatch prices today's Fed hold at 99.5%, with the central bank expected to keep the federal funds target band at 3.50% to 3.75% through year-end. Kalshi prediction markets show only a 50% probability of any Fed rate cut before 2027, collapsed from 80% to 90% earlier in the year. Compare that against the ECB, which sits at 2.00% and is expected to hold Thursday with Lagarde likely framing higher energy as a temporary supply shock rather than a demand-driven inflation trend that demands tightening. The 150-basis-point policy spread between the Fed and the ECB is the cleanest fundamental driver pulling EUR/USD lower, and that spread is structurally locked in for at least the next two quarters because neither central bank can pivot meaningfully without harming its mandate. Money markets are now pricing roughly 3 basis points of ECB rate hikes by year-end via Prime Terminal's implied forward rate curve, but that pricing assumes the ECB prioritizes inflation over growth — a stance that would crush eurozone activity and drag the euro lower through the recession-risk channel rather than supporting it through the rate-differential channel.

The Strait of Hormuz Story Is the Real Killer for the Euro

Crude oil is the upstream variable strangling EUR/USD in the short run, and the framing of the Iran standoff has shifted in ways that materially extend the pressure window. Brent (BZ=F) at $115 with eight consecutive up sessions is the cleanest tell that the energy market is pricing the Strait of Hormuz disruption as durable rather than transitory. Donald Trump has reportedly briefed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade rather than walk away from the war or pivot to direct conflict, and the rhetoric over the past 48 hours has hardened around the position that the U.S. will squeeze the Iranian economy through the energy channel for as long as it takes to force a deal. The Wall Street Journal reporting that surfaced midweek made clear that the White House sees the blockade as the preferred policy tool rather than military escalation, which means the inflation pressure feeding through to the euro zone will likely persist into the summer. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global energy supply on any given day, and a sustained closure resets inflation expectations across every major developed economy. The euro zone is structurally more exposed than the U.S. because Germany — the bloc's industrial anchor — depends on imported energy to run its manufacturing base. Germany's GfK consumer sentiment index has fallen sharply, the Ifo business survey has weakened, and the European Commission sentiment survey points to slowing economic momentum across the bloc. That stagflationary cocktail — weakening growth alongside rising inflation expectations — is the worst possible setup for a currency facing a strong dollar across both rate and risk channels. The United Arab Emirates exiting OPEC on May 1 layers another structural complication onto the energy backdrop. The fragmentation of cartel coordination during a Hormuz closure means crude supply discipline is breaking precisely when the world needs it most, which keeps the energy premium underneath the dollar bid.

Technical Map: 1.1665 Floor, 1.1745 Wall, 1.1500 the Trapdoor

The chart structure has compressed into a setup that resolves violently in either direction within days. EUR/USD at 1.1684 to 1.1700 is sitting just above the 200-day moving average and the prior support/resistance confluence in the 1.1665 to 1.1680 zone, which represents the cleanest multi-month support level on the daily chart. The triple simple moving average cluster around 1.1649 reinforces that floor and is the first level any sustained dollar rally has to break to open the deeper downside path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 50.4 hovers around neutral, which signals a loss of directional conviction after the recent recovery from mid-1.15s territory but does not yet flag the kind of momentum exhaustion that triggers a snap-back rally. The 20-day exponential moving average at 1.1698 is acting as a magnet, with price stuck to that line as the market waits for Powell to deliver the binary catalyst. A daily close beneath 1.1665 to 1.1680 cracks the structure and exposes deeper supports at 1.1600, then the 1.1567 zone tied to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with 1.1500 as the next major psychological level and 1.1408 as the structural floor below it. To the upside, immediate resistance sits at 1.1745 to 1.1750 (the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 1.1800 (the 20-day broader downward resistance trend confluence), with extended targets at 1.1825 (the 61.8% retracement), 1.1850, 1.1938, and the cycle high near 1.2082 acting as the upper band. A clean break above 1.1750 with volume confirmation would shift the bias back to the bulls, but the current setup makes that break unlikely without a dovish surprise from Powell or a Hormuz de-escalation headline that flips oil lower. The 1.1665 to 1.1680 floor is doing the heavy lifting on the long side of the trade, and a daily close beneath it accelerates the unwind toward 1.1500 fast.

The Powell Wildcard: His Last Press Conference Could Be the One That Matters Most

Today's FOMC decision is functionally a non-event for direction — the Fed holds at 3.50% to 3.75% with 99.5% probability priced. The press conference is where the trade gets made or broken. Powell's 14:30 ET appearance is almost certainly his final at the helm before his term ends in May, with Kevin Warsh clearing the Senate Banking Committee 13-11 along party lines and heading to a full Senate confirmation vote that the Republican majority effectively guarantees. The wrinkle that nobody has fully priced in: Powell could choose to remain on the Board of Governors after his term as chair ends, which would keep one of his allies on the committee and limit Trump's ability to stack the FOMC with rate-cut doves. If Powell signals he is leaving the Board entirely, the dollar could rally further on the assumption that Warsh plus additional Trump nominees deliver a more dovish committee composition that the market has not yet priced. If Powell signals he is staying on the Board through 2028, the dollar could face a tactical pullback because the FOMC composition becomes structurally less dovish than the consensus currently expects. Beyond the personnel question, Powell's framing of the energy-driven inflation shock matters enormously. The Fed has consistently described rising inflation as supply-driven and temporary, which gives the committee room to hold rather than hike. If Powell maintains that framing, it caps any dollar upside because the rate-hike path stays off the table. If he hardens the language around inflation expectations becoming unanchored — referencing the New York Fed's consumer survey showing 9.4% year-ahead gas-price expectations, the highest since March 2022 — the market starts pricing tail-risk hikes and the dollar rips through 99.20 toward 100.00. EUR/USD trades inversely to that scenario in real-time, and 1.1500 becomes the 7-day target.

ECB Walks the Stagflation Tightrope With No Good Options

The euro-zone outlook is becoming structurally uncertain in a way that limits EUR/USD upside even if the ECB turns hawkish at Thursday's meeting. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.00% on April 30, with money markets pricing roughly 3 basis points of cumulative hikes by year-end. The dynamic is poisonous for the euro: tightening policy in a stagflationary environment risks accelerating the growth slowdown that Germany's sentiment data is already flagging, while looking through the inflation pressure invites criticism that the ECB is letting prices spiral. Lagarde's communication challenge at Thursday's press conference is to thread a needle between acknowledging the Hormuz-driven supply shock and signaling that the ECB will not allow second-round inflation effects to take hold. Eurozone growth is forecast at 1.1% to 1.3% for 2026, while inflation has stayed sticky at 2.0% to 2.2% despite the energy shock. The German CPI miss this week — 2.9% versus 3.0% consensus, with monthly inflation dropping from 1.2% to 0.5% — signals that price pressure may already be peaking in the bloc's largest economy, which removes the urgency for ECB action and weakens the rate-differential argument that euro bulls have been leaning on. The ECB keeping the door open to a June move via guidance language would normally support the euro through the rate channel, but in the current stagflation backdrop, a hawkish ECB could actually weaken EUR/USD because the market would price in higher recession risk that overwhelms the rate-differential boost. Germany is the cleanest read on whether the euro can stabilize. As Germany goes, so goes the euro, and Germany is currently looking shaky with industrial activity facing both the Hormuz shock and the structural challenges that have been weighing on its manufacturing base for two years.