Euro Slides to 1.1078, Eyes 1.1270 Upside Target as ECB December Hike Meets a 150bp Fed Rate Gap

The euro broke to a new cycle low on Thursday. EUR/USD fell to 1.1066 during the session, its weakest level since May 2025 and a fresh 52-week low, before trading at 1.1078 by early afternoon in Europe, down 0.11% on the day. The day’s range runs from 1.1066 to 1.1106. Wednesday’s close at 1.1090 was already a cycle low, and Thursday added another 24 pips of damage at the bottom of the range.

The three-session sequence shows how fast the floor gave way. On Monday, November 9, the pair rallied 0.72% to close at 1.1224. On Tuesday it fell 0.53% to 1.1164 after hitting 1.1252 before the U.S. inflation report. On Wednesday it dropped another 0.66% to 1.1090, trading as low as 1.1083. Thursday’s 1.1066 low puts the pair 186 pips below Tuesday’s pre-CPI high in three sessions.

The longer view is harsher. EUR/USD is down 5.60% year to date and 4.36% to 4.78% over 12 months. It has lost 1.08% in the past month and 1.22% in the past week. The 52-week high of 1.2081 came in January 2026. From that peak to Thursday’s low, the euro has dropped 1,015 pips, or 8.4%.

The May 2025 low near 1.1060 now sits just six pips under the current price. That is the last major support from the 2025 base, and it marks the point where the euro’s entire rally from that spring to January’s 1.2081 peak gets fully reversed. A daily close below 1.1060 would put the pair at levels not seen since early 2025.

The thesis of this forecast is direct. The euro is not falling because the European Central Bank is dovish. The ECB is hiking and signaling more. The euro is falling because the Federal Reserve is hiking faster, U.S. yields are higher, and the dollar is the world’s main safe haven in a period of energy-driven inflation and geopolitical stress. Rate differentials, not ECB weakness, drive this move.

The upside case is real and has a clear trigger. If the Fed signals that a December hike ends its cycle while the ECB keeps hiking into 2027, the rate gap narrows and the euro gets room to recover. The path runs through 1.1171, Wednesday’s high, then 1.1252, Tuesday’s pre-CPI high, and on to 1.1270, the November 4 high at 1.1273. That 1.1270 level is the upside target.

The Dollar at a 19-Month High: DXY 103.08 and the Euro’s 57.6% Weight

The euro’s problem is the other side of the pair. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 103.08 on Thursday, its highest level in 19 months, before easing to 102.85 to 102.89 in European trading. That level is a fresh year-to-date high for the dollar and caps a rally that began with Tuesday’s October inflation report in the United States.

The link between the two is mechanical. The euro makes up 57.6% of the Dollar Index basket, so the DXY is mostly a mirror of EUR/USD. When the index hits a 19-month high, EUR/USD hits a matching low almost by definition. The euro’s 0.11% drop on Thursday is the dollar’s strength showing up in its largest component.

The dollar’s rally has been steady and broad. It cleared 101 in June, hit 101.99 in early October, and broke above 103 on Thursday. Each leg higher lined up with a hot U.S. data print that lifted Fed hike expectations. Tuesday’s CPI was the latest, and it pushed the index through 102.5 to its current highs.

The dollar is gaining against almost every major currency, not just the euro. The yen trades past 158 per dollar despite verbal warnings from Japanese officials. Sterling has slid along with the euro. That breadth confirms the move is about U.S. strength rather than any specific euro weakness.

Safe-haven demand adds to the dollar’s appeal. The U.S.-Iran conflict has driven energy prices higher and fed inflation worldwide. In past cycles, geopolitical stress often lifted the euro as an alternative reserve currency. In this one, Europe imports much more energy than the United States, so higher oil and gas prices hurt Europe’s economy more. Investors seeking safety buy dollars and short-term Treasuries paying 4% or more.

Thursday’s market moves fit the pattern. Gold fell 2.90% to $3,871.59, Bitcoin dropped 3.41% to $71,393, and the Nasdaq slid 0.63% after Nvidia’s CEO resigned. All three point the same way: money is moving into the dollar and away from assets that pay nothing or carry risk.

For the forecast, the 103 line on the DXY is the level to watch. A sustained hold above 103.08 would push EUR/USD through 1.1060 and toward 1.1000. A drop back below 102 would ease the pressure and give the euro room to retest 1.1171. The dollar’s next move depends on Friday’s U.S. PPI and on how the Fed frames December.

The Rate Gap: Fed at 3.75%–4.00% Against ECB Deposit at 2.50%

The rate differential is what drives this pair. The Federal Reserve’s target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00% after a September 16 hike, its first since 2023. The ECB’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.50% after hikes on June 17 and September 16. At the top of the Fed’s range, U.S. short rates are 150 basis points above the ECB deposit rate. That gap pays investors to hold dollars over euros.

The gap is wider further out the curve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.07% on Thursday. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 3.25% on November 9, its lowest level since late August, tracking a global bond rally during the tech selloff. That puts the U.S.-German 10-year spread above 180 basis points. Global investors can earn nearly two percentage points more a year by holding U.S. government debt instead of German debt.

Both central banks are expected to hike in December, which keeps the gap roughly steady rather than narrowing it. Futures show an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on December 9, taking the range to 4.00% to 4.25%. Odds of a 50-basis-point Fed move rose to 11%. On the ECB side, futures priced an 82% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75% at the December 17 meeting. If both move by a quarter point, the 150-basis-point gap holds.

The asymmetry is in the tails. The Fed has an 11% chance of a half-point hike, which would widen the gap and push EUR/USD lower. The ECB has a smaller chance of skipping December if growth weakens. Both risks favor the dollar. The euro needs the opposite: a Fed that pauses after December while the ECB keeps going.

Markets expect the ECB to hike two to three more times over the next year from the current 2.50%. That would take the deposit rate to 3.00% or 3.25% by late 2027. If the Fed stops at 4.00% to 4.25% while the ECB keeps hiking, the gap narrows to under 100 basis points. That narrowing is the medium-term bull case for the euro.

For the forecast, the 2-year spread between U.S. and German yields is the number that moves EUR/USD day to day. Each 10-basis-point widening in that spread has historically knocked about 0.4% off the pair. The December meetings, eight days apart, will set the spread’s path into 2027.

U.S. October CPI at 0.4%, Core at 0.3%: The Print That Broke 1.1150

The euro’s latest drop traces back to Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. October CPI rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% consensus, and core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. Core has now printed 0.3% for three straight months: August, September and October. Annualized, that works out to a 3.7% core inflation pace.

EUR/USD had traded as high as 1.1252 on Tuesday before the release. It closed at 1.1164, down 0.53%. The selling continued Wednesday with a 0.66% drop to 1.1090, and Thursday extended it to 1.1066. The CPI report triggered 186 pips of euro losses over three sessions, the largest three-day move in the pair since late September.

The details made the report harder for the Fed to look past. Energy rose 0.7% and gasoline 1%, but core prices also ran hot. Motor vehicle insurance rose 0.7%, recreation 0.8% and medical care 0.3%. Shelter rose 0.39% in September, the most since April. Price pressure is spreading beyond energy into services, the category the Fed has the most control over through rates.

The report had a gap. The 2025 U.S. government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting October 2025 prices, so the agency published no year-over-year figure. Markets traded the monthly numbers, and both came in a tenth above forecast.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller set the bar that morning. In a speech in London, he said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered in December if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. It printed exactly 0.3% a few hours later. Half-point odds jumped from zero to 11%, and that shift explains much of the dollar’s surge to 103.08.

For EUR/USD, U.S. inflation now matters more than European inflation. Eurozone inflation is higher than U.S. inflation, but the Fed is moving faster on it. The market rewards the central bank that hikes sooner and harder, and right now that is the Fed.

The next U.S. inputs are close. October PPI lands Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists already estimate core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 0.4% in October. A soft PPI would give the euro its first real relief since Tuesday. A hot one would push the pair through 1.1060.

Eurozone Inflation at 4.0%: A Three-Year High Driven by 20.8% Energy

Europe has its own inflation problem, and it is bigger than the U.S. one. The Eurostat flash estimate showed eurozone headline HICP inflation rose to 4.0% in October from 3.8% in September, a three-year high. Energy inflation jumped to 20.8% from 18.9%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held flat at 2.5%.

The country breakdown shows how uneven the energy shock is. Italy’s HICP surged to 5.6%, with national CPI up 5.4% and energy up 31.4% year over year. France’s HICP reached 3.8%. Spain held at 4.9%. Germany came in lowest at 2.8%. Southern economies, with heavier reliance on imported energy and less fiscal room, are taking the biggest hit.

The composition matters for the ECB and the euro. Headline inflation at 4.0% is double the ECB’s 2% target. But core at 2.5% is far closer to target. Most of the gap comes from energy, which the ECB cannot control directly with rates. Energy-driven inflation is a supply shock that hurts growth and raises prices at the same time, the worst mix for a central bank.

That explains why higher European inflation does not help the euro the way higher U.S. inflation helps the dollar. In the United States, core inflation is running hot at a 3.7% annualized pace, so the Fed has to hike, and that lifts the dollar. In Europe, core is steady at 2.5% while energy drives the headline, so the ECB has less reason to hike aggressively. The market sees the ECB as more likely to hold back to protect growth.

Producer prices point to more pressure ahead. Eurozone producer prices rose 8.2% year over year in August, up from 5.8% in July. Producer price increases usually feed into consumer prices with a lag of several months. That suggests headline HICP could stay above 4% for much of the first half of 2027 before falling toward the low twos.

For the forecast, eurozone inflation is a double-edged factor. It keeps the ECB hiking, which supports the euro on rate differentials. It also signals an energy shock that weakens Europe’s economy, which hurts the euro on growth. As long as energy prices stay high, the growth damage outweighs the rate support, and the euro stays under pressure.

The ECB’s Hawkish Hold: Deposit at 2.50% and a December Hike on the Table

The ECB is not the euro’s problem, and its October meeting showed why. On October 29 the Governing Council left all three key rates unchanged: the deposit facility at 2.50%, main refinancing operations at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. Those rates have been in place since September 16, following the June 17 and September 16 hikes.

The hold came with a hawkish message. President Christine Lagarde said policymakers discussed a rate hike before agreeing unanimously to wait. She signaled that conditions could have justified more tightening, and that the decision to hold reflected uncertainty about the outlook rather than an end to the tightening cycle. Traders call that a hawkish hold: rates unchanged, but a clear lean toward higher rates.

The euro’s reaction showed how much the market wanted that signal. EUR/USD fell to 1.1105 on the rate announcement, its weakest level since May 2025 at that point. When Lagarde revealed that a hike had been discussed, the pair erased a 0.4% decline and recovered to 1.1160 by the close. The ECB’s tone gave the euro its strongest one-day reversal of the autumn.

That rebound has now been fully undone. The euro traded at 1.1229 on November 4, near the post-ECB peak, before the U.S. data took over. Thursday’s 1.1066 low is 39 pips below the October 29 ECB low of 1.1105. The ECB’s hawkish signal has been overwhelmed by the Fed’s faster pace.

The December meeting sets up the next test. The ECB meets on December 17, eight days after the Fed, with new staff projections for growth and inflation. Futures priced an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75% after the October meeting, with total hike odds around 85%. Policymakers will weigh incoming GDP, wages, unemployment and November PMIs to judge how the economy is handling tighter financing.

The ECB statement flagged tighter financing conditions since the previous meeting, which can weigh on both growth and inflation. Underlying inflation has been stable so far, and wages have not yet shown a material response to the energy shock. Those points give the ECB room to slow its hikes if growth weakens.

For the forecast, the ECB’s credibility supports the euro over the medium term. A December hike to 2.75%, plus guidance pointing to 3.00% in 2027, would narrow the rate gap if the Fed pauses. That is the policy setup the 1.1270 upside target depends on.

Eurozone Growth: Q3 GDP at 0.4% Against Three Months of Falling Output

Europe’s economy is sending mixed signals, and the split explains the euro’s struggle. Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter, double the 0.2% forecast. EUR/USD rose 0.23% to 1.1202 on the October 30 release. Services demand and defense and AI-related spending in Germany carried the quarter.

Industrial data tells a different story. Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5% in August, missing forecasts for a flat reading and following a 0.3% drop in July. It was the third straight month of falling output. Year over year, production fell 1.1%. The manufacturing slump lines up with the energy shock, since high power prices make European factories less competitive.

The survey data was stronger. The final HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in September from 52.7, its highest level since May 2022. A reading above 50 signals expansion. German manufacturing gets support from rising AI and defense spending, a structural tailwind from Berlin’s fiscal expansion. Germany’s plan to spend €1 trillion or more on its military and infrastructure is supporting the whole eurozone economy.

The gap between strong surveys and weak hard data matters for the ECB. Surveys show firms are optimistic about orders. Production data shows they are not yet delivering. If the hard data catches up to the surveys, the ECB gets cover to keep hiking. If the surveys fall to match the hard data, the ECB will likely slow down, which would weaken the euro further.

Fiscal stress adds risk. French bonds have been under heavy pressure, with the spread between French 10-year OATs and German Bunds widening to around 170 basis points in late October, its highest since the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Spain called a snap election in early October, which pushed EUR/USD to a new low at the time. Political and fiscal stress in large eurozone economies raises the risk premium investors demand to hold euro assets.

The growth comparison with the United States favors the dollar. The U.S. labor market is tight, with jobless claims at 200,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. Europe’s economy is growing but struggling under an energy shock the United States does not face to the same degree. Investors put money where growth and yields are both higher, and right now that is the United States.

For the forecast, Europe’s growth needs to hold up for the ECB to keep hiking. A weak November PMI would raise the odds that the ECB skips December, which would send EUR/USD toward 1.1000.

The Energy Shock: Iran, Oil at $86.88 and Europe’s Terms-of-Trade Hit

Energy prices are the deepest structural driver of the euro’s slide. December WTI crude futures rose 0.40% to $86.88 a barrel on Thursday after President Trump posted that “We don’t need a deal with Iran,” which dimmed hopes for a Middle East resolution. The U.S.-Iran conflict has kept oil prices well above their 2025 levels and pushed European energy inflation to 20.8%.

Europe is far more exposed to energy prices than the United States. The eurozone imports most of its oil and gas, while the United States produces more energy than it uses. When oil and gas prices rise, money flows out of Europe to pay for imports. That outflow weakens the euro directly through the trade balance. Economists call it a terms-of-trade shock: Europe has to export more to pay for the same amount of imported energy.

The energy hit goes straight into European inflation and growth. Higher energy costs raise prices for households and squeeze factory margins, which explains the three straight months of falling industrial production. They also feed into producer prices, which rose 8.2% in August, and from there into consumer prices.

The euro’s sensitivity to gas prices is high. If European gas prices settle in the €85 to €100 per megawatt-hour range, EUR/USD could move toward 1.12. That level has already broken. A move in oil toward $115 a barrel would add more pressure. Europe’s energy bill is the main transmission channel from Middle East tension to the euro.

The United States gets the opposite effect. As a net energy exporter, it benefits from higher oil prices through its trade balance, and U.S. energy companies gain from higher revenue. Higher energy prices also push U.S. inflation up, which keeps the Fed hiking and supports the dollar on rates. The same oil shock hurts the euro on growth and helps the dollar on rates.

The geopolitical premium has shifted toward the dollar. In past crises, the euro sometimes benefited as an alternative reserve currency. In this one, Europe’s energy dependence makes it more vulnerable, and investors seeking safety go to the dollar.

For the forecast, energy is the variable that could break the euro’s downtrend fastest. A U.S.-Iran deal would cut oil prices sharply, ease European inflation, relieve the trade balance and narrow the growth gap with the United States. That is the geopolitical path to the 1.1270 target, and it can happen in a single headline.

U.S. Labor Data: Claims at 200,000 Keep the Fed on Its Path

Thursday’s U.S. labor print offered the euro no relief. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended November 7. The consensus was 195,000. The prior week was revised up to 191,000 from 189,000, and the four-week moving average held at 195,250.

The details pointed to a firm U.S. labor market. Continuing claims fell 20,000 to 1.697 million for the week ended October 31. Fewer people on ongoing benefits means laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly. Claims have stayed at or below 200,000 every week since mid-September. The mid-July low of 189,000 matched the lowest level since 1969.

The October jobs report released last week had already shown a surge in payrolls and U.S. unemployment falling to 4.1% from 4.2%. A labor market that tight keeps wage pressure feeding into services inflation, and that keeps the Fed hiking. For EUR/USD, every strong U.S. jobs number adds to the dollar’s rate advantage.

The euro’s reaction to the 8:30 a.m. ET release was muted, with the pair holding near 1.1078. The 5,000-claim miss against forecast was too small to change the Fed outlook. The broader message stays clear: the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle more Fed hikes, and that keeps the rate gap open.

The contrast with Europe matters. The eurozone faces an energy shock that is slowing its factories, with industrial production down for three straight months. The U.S. economy, with near-record-low layoffs and a 4.1% jobless rate, faces no comparable drag. Investors comparing the two see a stronger U.S. economy with higher yields, and they buy dollars.

A structural factor shapes the U.S. data. Part of the low claims count likely reflects a smaller labor force after the immigration crackdown, meaning fewer workers available to file. That makes claims a less precise guide to economic health, but it does not change the Fed’s view. A low unemployment rate keeps policymakers focused on inflation.

The euro bull case needs U.S. labor data to weaken. A run of claims above 230,000 or a weak November payroll report on December 4 would push the Fed toward a pause after December. That would narrow the rate gap and give EUR/USD its best chance to rally toward 1.1270.

Cross-Market Read: Gold, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Confirm Dollar Dominance

The euro’s drop is part of a broader dollar move that showed up across every major market on Thursday. Gold fell 2.90% to $3,871.59, its third straight loss and lowest price since November 4. Bitcoin dropped 3.41% to $71,393. Silver hit a new 2026 low at $50.19. The S&P 500 fell 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.63% after Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang resigned.

The common thread is the dollar and U.S. yields. Gold, priced in dollars and paying no interest, falls when the dollar rises and real yields climb. Bitcoin, a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, falls when financial conditions tighten. The euro, as the main counterpart to the dollar, falls when the DXY rises. All three moved in step on Thursday.

The Nvidia shock added to the risk-off tone. The world’s second most valuable company lost its founder overnight, and the stock fell as much as 14% at the open. Risk-off moves in U.S. tech usually pull money into the dollar and Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.07% rather than falling, which shows the inflation and Fed story outweighed the safe-haven bid for bonds.

The yen’s weakness gives the dollar’s strength a fuller picture. USD/JPY trades past 158 per dollar, with the Bank of Japan’s hawkish signals failing to slow the move. When the dollar gains against both the euro and the yen, its two largest rivals as reserve currencies, the move reflects U.S. strength, not just European or Japanese weakness.

European stocks showed some resilience. Germany’s DAX rose 217 points to 26,880 on Thursday, and the FTSE 100 gained 38 points to 10,874. A weaker euro helps European exporters, since their goods get cheaper for foreign buyers. That gives European stocks a partial offset to the currency’s slide.

The Bund market adds another layer. German 10-year yields fell below 3.25% on November 9, their lowest since late August, as investors sought safety during the U.S. tech selloff. Lower Bund yields widen the gap with U.S. Treasuries at 5.07%, which pushes more money toward dollar assets and keeps pressure on the euro.

For the forecast, the euro’s recovery depends on the dollar losing its broad momentum. When the DXY turns lower, gold, Bitcoin and the euro will likely rally together. Until then, the euro is trading as the main expression of dollar strength.

Technical Structure: Below 1.1100, With 1.1060 the Last 2025 Support

The chart confirms the euro’s breakdown. EUR/USD broke below 1.1100 on Thursday, a round-number support level that had held since the October 29 ECB meeting, when the pair bottomed at 1.1105. The new low at 1.1066 sits just six pips above the May 2025 low near 1.1060, the last major support from the 2025 base.

The pair has broken a series of important levels on the way down. It fell below 1.1400 in June, a support that had held since June 2025. It broke 1.1300 on October 1 for the first time since May 2025. It cut through 1.1150 on October 5 after Spain called a snap election. It then broke 1.11296, the 50% retracement of the rally from the January 2025 low to the January 2026 high. Each broken support has become resistance on the way back up.

The resistance map is clear. The first level is 1.1100, broken support that now caps rallies. Next comes 1.1171, Wednesday’s session high. Above that sits 1.1252, Tuesday’s high before the U.S. CPI release. The November 4 high at 1.1273 completes the cluster. A break above that zone would open 1.1300, the October 1 breakdown level.

The support map is thin below the current price. The May 2025 low near 1.1060 is the last structural support. Below that, 1.1000 is the big round number. Under 1.1000, the chart has little support until the levels of early 2025.

Momentum readings show the pair is stretched. The euro has fallen in three straight sessions and lost 186 pips since Tuesday. A decline that fast usually leads to a bounce before the trend continues. A bounce toward 1.1171 or even 1.1252 can happen without changing the downtrend. A daily close above 1.1300 is what would end it.

The 2026 range frames the scale. The pair opened the year near 1.17, peaked at 1.2081 in January and has fallen 8.4% since. The 2026 average through October was 1.1568, so the current price sits 490 pips below the year’s average. That gap shows how far the euro has dropped from its 2026 trading range.

For the forecast, 1.1060 decides the near-term direction. A hold above it and a reclaim of 1.1100 would set up a bounce to 1.1171, then 1.1252. A daily close below 1.1060 would put 1.1000 in play quickly, with stop-loss orders under the May 2025 low adding to the selling.

EUR/USD Price Forecast and Verdict: 1.1060 Floor, 1.1270 Upside Target

The forecast breaks into three paths. The bear path is a daily close below 1.1060, the May 2025 low. That would erase the euro’s entire rally from 2025, break the last structural support on the chart and open the way to 1.1000. The triggers are on the calendar. A hot U.S. PPI Friday, a rise in the Fed’s half-point hike odds above 11%, or a weak eurozone November PMI that puts the ECB’s December hike in doubt would each push the pair toward the bear path.

The base path is a range between 1.1060 and 1.1252. The euro has fallen 186 pips in three sessions and sits right at major support. Markets in that condition usually bounce to test broken support, here at 1.1100 and then 1.1171, before deciding direction. That range holds as long as the Dollar Index stays near 103 and the U.S.-German rate spread stays above 180 basis points on the 10-year.

The bull path is a reclaim of 1.1100, then 1.1171, then 1.1252, which opens the 1.1270 upside target at the November 4 high. That is a 192-pip move from 1.1078, about the distance the pair fell in the three sessions since CPI. Three things need to happen. Friday’s U.S. PPI has to come in at or below the 0.3% core forecast, taking the Fed’s half-point scenario off the table. The Fed has to signal on December 9 that a 25-basis-point hike ends its cycle. And the ECB has to hike on December 17 with guidance pointing to more, narrowing the rate gap from the European side.

Two catalysts could speed up the bull case. A U.S.-Iran deal would cut energy prices, ease Europe’s terms-of-trade hit and drop eurozone inflation, all of which favor the euro. A crack in U.S. labor data on December 4 would bring forward the end of the Fed’s hikes.

The verdict on EUR/USD is bearish in the short term, with a defined floor and recovery path. Thursday’s drop to 1.1066 confirms that the dollar, not the ECB, is driving this pair. The ECB is hiking, with a 2.50% deposit rate and a December move to 2.75% likely, but the Fed is hiking faster from a higher base, and the U.S. 10-year at 5.07% pays more than 180 basis points over Bunds. Europe’s 20.8% energy inflation hurts growth more than it helps the euro on rates. The 1.1060 floor decides whether this is a deep pullback or a break into early-2025 territory. The 1.1270 upside target stays valid, but it needs the Fed to signal an end to hikes while the ECB keeps going, and until that rate gap narrows, every rally toward 1.1252 meets sellers.

That's TradingNEWS