FCX ($70) Recovers as Guidance Implies 983M lbs Q4 Copper Sales — Upside Toward $80.24 Record

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is trading at $70.66, after opening at $71.39 and moving between $70.57 and $71.80 in early trading. Volume is light at 557,930 shares against a 12.0 million average, as the session is still early. At $70.66, the copper miner carries a market capitalization of $101.46 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.19 and a dividend yield of 0.87%.

The stock is climbing out of a sharp pullback. On Wednesday, Freeport traded between $67.80 and $70.95 and stood at $69.77 during the session. On Monday, it closed at $69.53, down $1.54, or 2.17%. Last Friday it closed at $71.07. The company's market value fell 8.27% over the past week. Today's price sits 4.2% above Wednesday's low and 1.6% above Monday's close.

The damage came from Washington. On September 10, reports said the White House had not decided on tariffs for refined copper imports. Freeport sank 8% that day, while Teck Resources and Southern Copper each dropped 7%. Copper posted its steepest single-day retreat of 2026 on the same report. The tariff uncertainty reversed a record rally in the metal and in copper equities.

The pullback followed a record run. Freeport hit an all-time high of $80.24 on August 26. On September 5, it traded at $72.73, up 44% for the year. Today's $70.66 price is 11.9% below the record high and 2.8% below the September 5 level. Over 52 weeks, the stock has ranged from $35.15 to $80.24. Today's price is 101% above that low.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. The tariff selloff priced policy risk into Freeport, but it did not change the company's volume math or the copper price it realizes. Freeport's full-year guidance implies second-half copper sales 26.8% above the first half, with a fourth quarter near 983 million pounds. Copper futures near $6.46 per pound sit 29 cents above the $6.17 Freeport realized in the second quarter. Every 10-cent move in copper changes Freeport's EBITDA by $390 million. Earnings are set to accelerate into year-end. The stock holds a clear floor at Wednesday's $67.80 low. A hold above it keeps a recovery toward $72.73 and the $80.24 record in play.

The broader tape is helping. The S&P 500 is up 1% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.7% on Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.94%. Base metals are firmer during the day, with three-month LME copper trading between $14,128.38 and $14,338.00 per tonne. Freeport's opening strength reflects that risk-on backdrop.

The Tariff Report That Reversed the Copper Rally

Trade policy is the largest single swing factor for Freeport's stock this month. On September 10, reports that the White House had not made a decision on refined copper tariffs triggered the selloff. Freeport said there has been no final decision on potential U.S. Section 232 copper tariffs. The Commerce Department recommended cathode-specific tariffs for 2027 and 2028, but those recommendations remain unfinalized.

The proposed structure is phased. A Commerce Department recommendation contemplated a 15% duty on refined copper from January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. Washington has already imposed 50% Section 232 tariffs on certain semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives. A 50% tariff on semi-finished copper took effect on August 1, 2025. A later proclamation applied the duty to the full customs value of copper articles from April 6, 2026, with a further adjustment on June 2, 2026. Refined copper cathodes were left out of those measures.

The tariff debate matters for Freeport because of where it sells copper. Freeport operates major mines in Arizona and New Mexico, including a 72% stake in Morenci. U.S.-produced copper sold inside the United States benefits from a tariff that raises the domestic price. A tariff on refined imports would widen the premium that U.S. buyers pay for domestic metal. The market had priced that benefit into Freeport's shares at the August high. The September 10 report questioned whether that benefit will arrive.

The market had positioned for tariffs for over a year. The Section 232 copper report was transmitted to the President on June 30, 2025 and remains unpublished as of September 2026. Traders moved metal into the United States ahead of any duty. Comex inventories rose for 46 consecutive days to a record around 675,185 metric tons. U.S. refined copper imports reached 885,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, more than double the first-half 2024 pace. Full-year 2025 imports hit a record 1.64 million tonnes.

Those stockpiles cut both ways. Record U.S. inventories support a domestic premium while tariff expectations hold. If refined copper is never tariffed, the metal parked in U.S. warehouses becomes surplus in a market that no longer needs it. That is why the September 10 report hit copper and copper equities so hard. The market suddenly priced a scenario in which the premium unwinds.

The policy risk remains unresolved. No final decision means the tariff could still be imposed on the proposed 2027-2028 schedule, modified or dropped. Freeport's stock will react to each headline. The company's operating results do not depend on the tariff decision, but the valuation premium the stock carried at $80.24 did.

Copper at $6.46: The Price Freeport Earns

Copper prices remain near historic levels despite the September pullback. Comex copper futures closed Wednesday at $6.4595 per pound, up 1.85 cents, or 0.29%. On Thursday, three-month LME copper traded toward the top of a $14,128.38 to $14,338.00 per tonne range, as base metals firmed with the dollar easing. LME copper hit a record intraday high of $14,533 per tonne earlier in September.

The metal's 2026 rally has been extraordinary. Comex copper reached a record $6.69 per pound on May 13, driven by Gulf-region sulfur supply disruptions, a 3% decline in Chinese refined output and anticipated U.S. tariffs on refined metal imports. That move extended a rally that had lifted prices more than 10% in 2026 at the time. Copper prices hit another record in early September on tariff concerns and supply problems amid surging demand for AI data-center infrastructure.

Supply tightness outside the United States is real. The Comex-LME tariff arbitrage drained LME warehouse stocks to 90,000 tonnes, supporting a $550 per tonne backwardation in the London market. Chile's state miner offered Korean customers a 2026 copper premium of $330 per tonne, up 288% from the prior year, reflecting supply tightening caused by U.S.-bound copper diversion. Roughly 65,400 tonnes were earmarked for withdrawal from LME warehouses in recent days.

Freeport's realized prices track that strength. In the second quarter, Freeport realized an average copper price of $6.17 per pound, up from $5.78 per pound in the first quarter. Wednesday's Comex close of $6.4595 is 29 cents above the second-quarter realized price, a 4.7% increase. If prices hold near current levels through the third quarter, Freeport's realized price will rise again.

The sensitivity is large. Each 10-cent move in the copper price generates $390 million in annual EBITDA for Freeport. A 29-cent increase above second-quarter realized prices is worth $1.13 billion of annualized EBITDA if sustained. That is why the stock traded at $80.24 when copper set records, and why it fell 8% when tariff doubts hit the metal.

Structural demand supports prices over the long term. Copper remains essential for power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy connections and data center infrastructure. AI-related power build-outs have added a layer of consumption that was barely present in most models a few years ago. On Wednesday, Generac agreed to supply up to $8 billion of backup generators for Amazon's data centers, another sign of the electrical infrastructure buildout that consumes copper wire, transformers and switchgear.

Second-Quarter 2026: The Beat That Came With a Selloff

Freeport reported strong second-quarter results on July 23. Net income attributable to common stock totaled $984 million, or $0.68 per share, compared with $772 million, or $0.53 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted net income reached $1.1 billion, or $0.74 per share, up 37% from $0.54. Adjusted earnings beat analyst estimates of $0.59 by 25.4%.

Revenue also beat forecasts. Freeport reported revenue of $7.03 billion, compared with estimates of $6.71 billion, a 4.8% beat. Revenue declined 7.3% from a year earlier, as lower copper and gold volumes were partly offset by significantly higher realized metal prices. Freeport generated $2.0 billion of operating cash flow in the quarter.

Volumes were the weak spot. Consolidated copper production fell 18.4% year over year to 786 million pounds. Copper sales declined 30.1% to 710 million pounds, primarily reflecting lower operating rates at PT Freeport Indonesia during the phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine. Gold production reached 192,000 ounces and molybdenum production 23 million pounds. Sales totaled 123,000 ounces of gold and 25 million pounds of molybdenum.

Costs beat the company's own estimate. Consolidated unit net cash costs averaged $1.97 per pound of copper, favorable to the April 2026 estimate of $2.24 per pound. The improvement came primarily from higher molybdenum by-product credits and higher copper volumes. Costs were unfavorable to the $1.13 per pound of the second quarter of 2025, reflecting lower copper volumes at the Indonesian operations.

The margin is wide. At a $6.17 realized copper price and a $1.97 unit net cash cost, Freeport earned $4.20 per pound before other costs, a 68% cash margin. Management said consolidated net income rose 65% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, while U.S. mining operations generated 2.4 times more operating income than in the first half of 2025.

The stock fell anyway. Shares traded at $62.45 after the report, down 3.9% from the prior close of $65. Investors weighed higher capital spending, a larger preliminary price tag for the Bagdad expansion and timing shifts. Freeport maintained its full-year copper sales forecast at 3.1 billion pounds but lowered its third-quarter copper sales outlook to 750 million pounds. From $62.45 on July 23 to the $80.24 record on August 26, the stock then rallied 28.5% in 24 trading sessions.

Guidance: A Second-Half Volume Surge Is Coming

Freeport's full-year guidance contains the forecast's most important number. The company expects 2026 consolidated sales of 3.1 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold and 90 million pounds of molybdenum. First-quarter copper sales totaled 657 million pounds and second-quarter sales totaled 710 million pounds, for a first-half total of 1.367 billion pounds.

The implied second half is large. Reaching 3.1 billion pounds requires 1.733 billion pounds of copper sales in the second half of 2026. That is 26.8% more than the first half. Management confirmed that copper production and sales are set to increase by more than 20% in the second half. With third-quarter sales guided to 750 million pounds, the fourth quarter must deliver 983 million pounds. That would be the highest quarterly copper sales total of the year by a wide margin, 38.5% above the second quarter.

Gold follows the same pattern. Third-quarter guidance calls for 160,000 ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. First-quarter gold sales were 121,000 ounces and second-quarter sales were 123,000 ounces. Reaching 650,000 ounces for the year requires 406,000 ounces in the second half, with 246,000 ounces in the fourth quarter. Gold is trading above $4,300 per ounce, so higher gold volumes add meaningful by-product credits that lower copper unit costs.

Costs are guided lower. Freeport's estimate for 2026 average unit net cash costs is $1.90 per pound, slightly below the April estimate of $1.95, with higher by-product credits more than offsetting other unit cost increases. Third-quarter costs are expected to average $2.00 per pound. Falling costs in the fourth quarter, as volumes surge, would widen margins further.

Cash flow guidance is strong. Freeport projects 2026 operating cash flows of $8.3 billion and capital expenditures of $4.3 billion. The difference is $4.0 billion of free cash flow, equal to a 3.9% yield on today's $101.46 billion market capitalization. Those projections assumed copper prices below current levels.

The multi-year outlook accelerates further. Freeport expects 2027 copper sales to increase by more than 20% compared with 2026, and gold volumes to increase by more than 50%, with additional growth projected in 2028. A 20% increase from 3.1 billion pounds puts 2027 copper sales above 3.72 billion pounds. One timing factor affects 2026: consolidated production is expected to exceed sales by 100 million pounds of copper and 50,000 ounces of gold held as inventory at the Indonesian smelting operations, which will be sold later.

Grasberg: The Ramp-Up That Drives Everything

Grasberg is Freeport's most important asset. The company owns 49% of the Grasberg copper and gold operations in Papua, Indonesia, one of the largest copper and gold mines in the world. Earlier operational disruptions forced a phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine. The pace of that ramp-up determines Freeport's volumes through 2027.

Progress has been rapid. At Grasberg, production doubled from an April average of 34,000 tons per day to 69,000 tons per day in June. Freeport said the ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine is progressing on schedule. The restart of Production Blocks 2 and 3 in the second quarter was the most significant near-term catalyst for the company's global portfolio.

The timeline extends through 2027. Freeport says Grasberg output is phasing up to 65% of capacity in the second half of 2026, with full capacity targeted by the end of 2027. The company expects Grasberg to reach 80% capacity by mid-2027. Upgraded materials handling, rail systems and a restarted new smelter support the ramp. Freeport targets 800 million pounds of copper sales from Grasberg in 2026.

The ramp explains the cost profile. Second-quarter unit net cash costs of $1.97 per pound compared with $1.13 a year earlier, primarily because lower Grasberg volumes spread fixed costs over fewer pounds. As Grasberg returns to full capacity, those fixed costs spread across more copper. Unit costs should fall back toward the prior-year level as volumes recover. That is the operating leverage behind the 2027 outlook.

The smelter adds a timing effect. Production at Grasberg flows through PT Freeport Indonesia's smelting operations before sale. The 100 million pounds of copper and 50,000 ounces of gold held as smelter inventory in 2026 represent volume that will convert to sales in 2027. That deferral depresses 2026 sales slightly but adds to 2027 revenue.

Execution risk is real. Underground block cave mining is complex, and earlier disruptions show how quickly operations can stop. Any setback at Grasberg would push the fourth-quarter volume surge into 2027 and weaken the second-half earnings acceleration. The doubling of daily output between April and June shows the ramp is working. The fourth quarter is where the market will judge whether it stays on schedule.

The Americas: Morenci, Cerro Verde and the Leach Opportunity

Freeport's Americas operations delivered the strongest performance of the second quarter. In the United States, Morenci reached 900,000 tons per day of material mined, 30% above its five-year average, reflecting better equipment reliability and maintenance. U.S. mining operations generated 2.4 times more operating income in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier.

The asset base is deep. Freeport owns stakes in 10 copper mines, including three of the world's largest: 49% of Grasberg, 55% of Cerro Verde in Peru and 72% of Morenci in Arizona. Its assets also include Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita and Miami in Arizona, Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico, Henderson and Climax in Colorado, and El Abra in Chile. The company employs 29,000 people.

Leaching technology is a low-cost growth path. Freeport is using new leaching technologies to extract copper from previously uneconomic tailings. That initiative could increase production by 140,000 metric tons at much lower capital intensity than building a new mine. Across its portfolio, innovative leaching could unlock 40 billion pounds of copper. The company calls these "shadow mines" in North America.

Brownfield expansions add longer-term growth. Freeport is advancing potential brownfield expansions in the United States and a potential major expansion at El Abra in Chile. The Bagdad expansion in Arizona is a near-term priority, though its preliminary cost estimate increased. One major project needs copper prices near $4 per pound to meet return thresholds, and the board review seeks a year-end decision. With copper at $6.46, the economics look favorable against that hurdle.

Domestic production carries strategic value. Freeport's U.S. operations are the largest source of domestically mined copper. Government incentives and automation support expansion. If refined copper tariffs are implemented, U.S.-produced copper would command a higher domestic price than imported metal. That policy optionality is the reason Freeport's U.S. assets carried a premium at the August high.

Input costs are a pressure point. On the second-quarter call, management discussed cost pressures tied to the conflict in the Middle East, including volatility in oil and related products, sulfur and sulfuric acid. Leaching operations consume large volumes of sulfuric acid. Gulf-region sulfur disruptions helped drive copper's May record while raising Freeport's costs. Oil prices fell to $100.55 per barrel for WTI on Thursday, easing part of that pressure.

Valuation After the Pullback

At $70.66, Freeport trades at 34.19 times trailing earnings. That multiple reflects depressed trailing earnings from the Grasberg disruption, not the earnings power of a fully operating portfolio. In 2025, Freeport generated $25.92 billion of revenue, up 1.81%, and $2.20 billion of earnings, up 16.68%. First-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.57 per share included a $700 million insurance payout.

The run-rate view is lower. Annualizing the second quarter's $0.74 adjusted EPS gives $2.96 per share, which puts the stock at 23.9 times run-rate earnings. That run rate is built on 710 million pounds of quarterly copper sales. If the fourth quarter delivers 983 million pounds at current copper prices, quarterly earnings would rise well above the second-quarter level, compressing the multiple further.

Cash flow is the cleaner measure. Projected 2026 operating cash flow of $8.3 billion against capital expenditures of $4.3 billion leaves $4.0 billion of free cash flow. At a $101.46 billion market capitalization, the stock trades at 25.4 times 2026 free cash flow, a 3.9% free cash flow yield. Earlier in the year, at $6 per pound copper, Freeport's modeled EBITDA was near $18 billion with free cash flow of up to $10 billion. Those projections came before copper rose above $6.40.

Shareholder returns are modest. Freeport declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, consisting of a $0.075 base dividend and a $0.075 variable dividend under its performance-based payout framework. The annual rate of $0.60 per share yields 0.85% at today's price. The variable component rises with cash flow, so higher copper prices and volumes could lift the payout.

The year-to-date gain puts valuation in context. At $72.73 on September 5, Freeport was up 44% for 2026. At today's $70.66, the year-to-date gain is 39.9%. The stock has roughly doubled from its 52-week low of $35.15. Southern Copper and Teck Resources each surged 45% year to date through early September, moving in a tight cluster with Freeport. That clustering signals commodity-driven momentum rather than company-specific re-rating.

The valuation is tied to copper. Each 10-cent move in copper changes EBITDA by $390 million. With 1.436 billion shares outstanding at today's market capitalization, a 10-cent copper move is worth $0.27 per share of annual EBITDA. The stock trades as a leveraged copper instrument. Tariff headlines move the copper price, and the copper price moves the stock.

Copper Peers and the Sector Selloff

Freeport trades as part of a tight copper complex. On September 5, Southern Copper traded at $198.76, up 73.95% over the past year, and Teck Resources traded at $69.10. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) traded at $90.66. All three copper equities had surged alongside the metal's record run.

The September 10 selloff hit the group together. Freeport fell 8%, while Teck and Southern Copper each dropped 7%. A single policy update reversed a record rally across the sector. The uniform decline confirms the move was driven by the copper price and tariff expectations, not company fundamentals.

Southern Copper carries higher valuation risk. Its 73.95% one-year gain exceeds Freeport's performance, and its operations are concentrated in Peru and Mexico. Southern Copper would not benefit from a U.S. refined copper tariff in the same way Freeport's Arizona mines would. If tariffs are imposed, Freeport's U.S. footprint gives it an advantage over Latin American-focused peers.

Teck offers a diversified comparison. Teck Resources has exposure to copper and zinc, with operations in Canada and Chile. Its 45% year-to-date gain matched Freeport's. U.S.-Canada trade tensions escalated in September, with the White House banning certain Canadian dairy and alcohol imports and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of goods taking effect. Trade friction adds risk for Canadian producers selling into the U.S. market.

Gold miners offer a partial hedge. Freeport's gold production, guided at 650,000 ounces for 2026 and rising more than 50% in 2027, gives it exposure to gold prices above $4,300 per ounce. Gold rebounded more than 1.3% on Thursday. Agnico Eagle, a large gold producer, gained 2.74% during the session. Freeport's gold by-product credits lower copper unit costs, so strength in gold supports Freeport's margins even when copper pauses.

The sector's direction depends on copper supply. Record Comex inventories of 675,185 tonnes and LME stocks drained to 90,000 tonnes show a market split by geography. Chinese refined output fell 3% earlier this year. Any renewed supply disruption, from Gulf-region sulfur shortages to Latin American mine outages, would tighten global supply and lift the entire copper complex. Freeport, with the largest U.S. production base, benefits most from a domestic premium.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Hike, Dollar and Industrial Demand

The Federal Reserve's first rate hike since July 2023 affects Freeport through three channels. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday. Sixteen of 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year, and money markets price 75 basis points of additional tightening by next June. Higher rates slow construction and manufacturing, the largest end markets for copper.

The dollar is the second channel. Copper is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers. The dollar index touched 100.37 on Thursday, its strongest level since July 31, before easing to 100.08. The dollar's partial retreat on Thursday supported the firmer tone in base metals.

Interest rates affect valuation. Freeport's growth projects, including Bagdad, El Abra and leaching initiatives, deliver cash flows over many years. Higher discount rates reduce the present value of those future cash flows. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% earlier this week before falling to 4.94% on Thursday. The decline in yields supports mining equities with long project lives.

Energy costs hit mining directly. Mines consume large amounts of diesel for haul trucks and electricity for processing. U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.3103 per gallon on Wednesday, up 70.5% from a year earlier. WTI crude traded at $100.55 on Thursday, down from its $105.83 close on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's plan to restore half of its damaged East-West pipeline capacity within days eased supply fears. Lower oil prices reduce Freeport's operating costs.

The AI and grid buildout is the demand counterweight. U.S. electricity sales are forecast to reach a record 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, driven by data center development and manufacturing activity. Every new data center, transmission line and substation requires copper. That structural demand supports copper prices through economic slowdowns that would otherwise weigh on industrial metals.

China remains the largest demand center. China's Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 slipped on Thursday, and Chinese refined copper output declined earlier this year. China's economic direction determines global copper demand more than any other factor. Signs of Chinese stimulus or infrastructure spending would lift copper prices and Freeport's shares, while a slowdown would weigh on both.

Technical Map: Support at $67.80, Resistance at $72.73

The support structure starts at today's lows. The first level is $70.57, today's intraday low, 0.1% below the current price. The second is $69.53, Monday's close, a 1.6% decline. The third is $67.80, Wednesday's intraday low and the bottom of the post-tariff selloff, a 4.1% decline.

The $67.80 level is the line that matters. It marks where buyers stepped in after an 8% single-day drop on the tariff report and a further slide through the Fed decision. A daily close below $67.80 would break the post-selloff low and signal that the market is pricing a no-tariff scenario and weaker copper demand. Below $67.80, the next reference is $65.00, the pre-earnings close from July, an 8.0% decline.

Deeper support comes from the summer range. The post-earnings low of $62.45 on July 23 sits 11.6% below today's price. That level marked the start of the rally to the $80.24 record. A return to $62.45 would erase the entire August advance and require copper to fall well below $6 per pound.

Resistance begins at today's high. The first level is $71.80, the intraday high, 1.6% above today's price. The second is $72.28, which marked the 52-week high before the August breakout, a 2.3% gain. The third is $72.73, the September 5 close, a 2.9% gain. Reclaiming $72.73 would erase the tariff selloff.

The upper resistance is the record. The all-time high of $80.24, set on August 26, sits 13.6% above today's price. Clearing $80.24 would require copper to return to its record territory, with Comex near $6.69 per pound or LME above $14,533 per tonne, or a final decision implementing refined copper tariffs on the proposed schedule.

Volatility is elevated. Freeport carries a beta of 1.60 and a recent volatility reading of 3.16%, meaning it moves more than the broader market in both directions. An 8% single-day decline on a policy headline shows how quickly the stock can reprice. Traders should expect wide daily ranges until the tariff decision is resolved.

Freeport-McMoRan Stock Price Forecast Verdict: Bullish Above $67.80, $72.73 Target

Freeport-McMoRan enters the session at $70.66, 11.9% below its $80.24 all-time high and 4.2% above Wednesday's $67.80 low. The stock fell 8% on September 10 when reports said the White House had not decided on refined copper tariffs, and its market value dropped 8.27% over the past week. It opened Thursday at $71.39 as the S&P 500 rose 1% and base metals firmed.

The earnings case is building. Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.74 beat estimates by 25.4%, revenue of $7.03 billion beat by 4.8%, and unit net cash costs of $1.97 per pound came in 27 cents below the company's April estimate. Freeport realized $6.17 per pound for copper, and Comex futures now trade at $6.4595. Full-year guidance of 3.1 billion pounds implies second-half copper sales of 1.733 billion pounds, 26.8% above the first half, with a fourth quarter near 983 million pounds. Grasberg output doubled from 34,000 to 69,000 tons per day between April and June, and 2027 copper sales are guided more than 20% higher.

The risks are concentrated. The refined copper tariff decision remains unfinalized, and the September 10 report showed how fast the premium can unwind. Record Comex inventories of 675,185 tonnes could become surplus if tariffs are dropped. Grasberg's ramp carries execution risk, sulfur and acid costs tied to the Middle East conflict pressure leaching operations, and the Fed's hike weighs on construction and manufacturing demand. The stock trades at 34.19 times trailing earnings and 25.4 times projected 2026 free cash flow.

The forecast is bullish with a defined line. First resistance sits at $71.80, then $72.28 and the $72.73 September 5 close, with the $80.24 all-time high as the extended target. Support holds at $70.57, $69.53 and the $67.80 post-selloff low. A daily close below $67.80 invalidates the bullish bias and opens a move toward $65.00 and $62.45.

The trigger is copper and volumes. Comex copper holding above $6.40 per pound with third-quarter sales tracking toward the 750 million pound guidance confirms a break above $72.73. A final decision implementing refined copper tariffs on the proposed 2027-2028 schedule would extend the move toward $80.24. A confirmed decision to exclude refined copper from tariffs, or a Grasberg setback, sends Freeport back to test $67.80.

Verdict: bullish bias above $67.80, targeting $72.73 near term and $80.24 on sustained copper prices and a confirmed second-half volume ramp, with the forecast invalidated on a daily close below $67.80.

That's TradingNEWS