Figma Stock Price Forecast - FIG Slides To $28: AI Design Moat Or Value Trap?

NYSE:FIG – High-Growth Design Platform Reset Around $28

Fundamentals Of NYSE:FIG At A Glance

Figma Inc, traded as NYSE:FIG, is now changing hands around $28–29, with Google Finance showing $28.24–$28.46 today after a prior close at $30.06. The intraday range sits roughly between $28.30 and $29.78, versus a brutal 52-week band of $18.41 at the low and $142.92 at the high. At this price the equity is valued near $14.1 billion, with no dividend and no meaningful P/E multiple because earnings are still negative on a GAAP basis. The story is a classic growth-stock reset: from a July 2025 IPO priced at $25–28, opening at $85 and closing the first day at $115.50, to a subsequent surge above $140, and then a collapse of more than 80% from peak to today. Over the last week NYSE:FIG gained about 2.5%, but that minor bounce is set against a roughly 26% slide over 30 days and about 24% drawdown year-to-date. Volatility is high, sentiment is fragile, and valuation has compressed from bubble territory to mid-teens sales multiples at the top, now closer to high single digits on more optimistic revenue projections.

Business Model, Product Suite And Collaboration Edge In NYSE:FIG

Figma’s platform is the core asset behind NYSE:FIG. The company delivers a browser-based, cloud-native design and collaboration suite that has become standard in UI/UX, product design, and digital marketing workflows. The flagship product, Figma Design, allows teams to build interactive prototypes for mobile applications and websites, with real-time multi-user editing in a single file. FigJam extends this into whiteboarding, brainstorming and workshops. Additional products like Figma Slides, Buzz, Draw and a website creation tool expand its reach into presentations, social media assets and broader content production. The architecture is all about collaboration: product managers, marketers, engineers and executives can work together in real time, comment, edit and iterate on the same design artifacts. That “multi-player” capability, delivered through the browser with shared component libraries, consistent design tokens and enterprise asset management, is the practical moat. It is why Figma is already used by around 95% of the Fortune 500 and why many enterprises have standardised on it as the central design hub.

AI Strategy, Figma Make And Usage-Based Monetisation For NYSE:FIG

The AI layer is now a central part of the thesis for NYSE:FIG. Figma Make allows users to generate layouts, components, copy and sometimes functional code using natural-language prompts. Designers and non-technical stakeholders can describe the desired screen or flow, and Make returns candidate designs that teams can iterate on inside the Figma environment. AI features also handle chores such as auto-organising layers, suggesting layouts and removing backgrounds. These capabilities are integrated into the existing collaboration workflow rather than bolted on. All seats receive AI credits, and from March 18, 2026 Figma will start enforcing seat credit limits. At that point, users who exhaust bundled credits will need to upgrade to higher tiers or buy additional AI credits on a subscription or pay-as-you-go basis. For NYSE:FIG, that transition marks the move from pure seat-based pricing to a hybrid of seat plus usage-based monetisation, with AI consumption as the core meter. Early, conservative guidance does not attempt to quantify the upside, but the structure mirrors other software names that have successfully layered usage onto enterprise subscriptions.

Growth Metrics: Revenue, Net Retention And Customer Expansion In NYSE:FIG

Recent operating numbers behind NYSE:FIG remain firmly in high-growth territory. In the most recently reported quarter, revenue grew about 38% year on year, with sequential growth of roughly $25 million, around 10% quarter-on-quarter. Dollar-based net retention reached around 131%, indicating that existing customers increased their spend by more than 30% on average over 12 months, driven by multi-product adoption and expansion across teams. Paid customers grew about 20% sequentially in that quarter, an unusually strong step-up, with a notable increase in the share of accounts using multiple Figma products. The company has indicated sequential revenue guidance nearer 7% for the following quarter, a downshift to roughly $20 million quarter-on-quarter growth, which already looks conservative relative to the momentum described on the earnings call. Consensus models are even more cautious, with some forecasts effectively assuming flat sequential revenue in the March quarter and sub-4% sequential growth in subsequent quarters. That pulls the market’s base case for 2026 revenue to about $1.29 billion, roughly 24% growth, whereas a simple extension of recent trends and product traction easily supports a path towards $1.33–$1.35 billion, closer to 28% growth.

IPO Path, Lock-Ups And Sector Rotation Dragging NYSE:FIG

The journey from “must-own” IPO to compressed multiple is central to assigning a risk premium to NYSE:FIG. At launch in July 2025, the stock was priced at $25–28 but immediately opened at $85 and closed at $115.50. That price equated to an extremely high revenue multiple, on the order of 40–50× annualised sales, driven by scarcity of quality new software listings and excitement around design and collaboration themes. The post-IPO run took NYSE:FIG above $140, before a long sequence of declines driven by three levers. First, extended lock-up structures covered about 54% of outstanding shares, with key expirations on September 30 and December 31, 2025, and upcoming windows on March 31 and August 2026. Each unlock event has added significant supply as insiders gained more freedom to sell, visible in insider-transaction logs accessible via the FIG stock profile. Second, sector rotation in public markets shifted capital towards AI infrastructure leaders—semiconductors, hyperscalers, and model platforms—at the expense of application software. Enterprise SaaS valuations broadly dropped from decade-average forward earnings multiples near 55× to around 18×, and revenue multiples fell 30–55% from prior peaks. Third, any IPO that priced in perfection was vulnerable once actual quarterly upside was modest rather than spectacular. Figma beat revenue by about 4% in its last quarter, which is solid but not enough to maintain a peak IPO premium in a cooler tape. The result is an 80%+ drawdown from the top and a 58% decline since the last strong earnings print.

Competitive Landscape: Adobe, Anthropic Claude Cowork And Other Rivals To NYSE:FIG

Competitive risk is the main bear argument against NYSE:FIG. Historically, Adobe was the primary rival via XD, but Adobe has effectively ceded real-time collaborative UI/UX to Figma by putting XD into maintenance mode, especially after antitrust regulators blocked Adobe’s $20 billion attempt to acquire Figma. That abandoned deal is an important benchmark: today’s roughly $14 billion market cap for NYSE:FIG is about 30% below the price Adobe was willing to pay in 2022, even though Figma’s revenues have roughly tripled since then and the company has shifted into cash generation. The new perceived threat is Anthropic’s Claude Cowork. Cowork uses agentic AI to handle multi-step tasks and file management; it can work with Figma files via connectors, assist in prototyping and even generate code from designs. The key distinction is that Figma’s collaboration model is human-to-human multi-player in the browser, while Cowork is an AI agent that executes tasks delegated by a user. At this stage, Cowork enhances Figma workflows rather than replacing them: designers can use Claude to generate first drafts or code and then refine and share them in Figma. Integration between Claude and Figma’s MCP server reinforces that symbiosis. Additional competitors exist in narrower slices: Sketch for macOS-focused teams, UXPin for “Merge” and code-centric design, Penpot as an open-source alternative, Canva as an easy graphic tool expanding into pro use, and newer AI-first tools like Framer or VO by Vercel. None yet combine the same degree of real-time multi-user editing, design system management and enterprise-standard UI/UX depth at Figma’s scale. That is why independent analysts often quote north of 80% share in core UI/UX tools for Figma and around 40% share when considering broader design tooling.

TAM, Multi-Product Expansion And Non-Designer Adoption For NYSE:FIG

The size and composition of the addressable market matter for how far NYSE:FIG can grow before saturation. Traditional estimates put graphic design software on a 7–11% CAGR trajectory. Figma’s own framing is more ambitious: management points to a total addressable market around $33 billion, far beyond just design seats, covering collaboration, workflow, presentation, marketing, and product operations. Figma’s strategy is to broaden use beyond professional designers to product managers, marketers, engineers and executives. FigJam supports cross-functional workshops; Figma Slides and Buzz target internal and external comms; Draw and other tools cover illustration and social content. Over 80% of customers already use at least two products, showing that multi-product penetration is real, not theoretical. This cross-functional expansion is also visible in metrics: deferred revenue doubled year-on-year in the last reported quarter, driven by larger, multi-product deals, and multi-product usage is singled out as a growth driver. For NYSE:FIG, that means the company does not need the core design market to grow 30% annually; it can grow faster by taking share from legacy tools, expanding into adjacent workflows and upselling existing clients.

Pricing Evolution, AI Credits And Potential Revenue Uplift For NYSE:FIG

Pricing architecture is transitioning in a way that could be very meaningful for NYSE:FIG over the next two to three years. Historically, Figma followed a standard seat-based model with tiers like Professional, Organization and Enterprise. AI capabilities like Figma Make were initially included as part of those seats. Late in 2025, Figma announced AI credits per seat and a forthcoming enforcement date. Starting March 18, 2026, each seat’s credit limits will be enforced, forcing heavy users to either move up to higher tiers, which come with more credits, or purchase extra credits via subscription or pay-as-you-go. In practice, this type of structure historically leads enterprises to overbuy credits in anticipation of usage and later expand as teams embed AI deeply into workflows. Because these AI features significantly accelerate design and collaboration, early anecdotal feedback suggests strong usage. Management has not yet quantified expected incremental revenue, and next quarter’s reported numbers will not include meaningful contribution from usage, since monetisation only truly starts once enforcement begins. Nonetheless, the combination of mandatory tier enforcement and a clear AI credit meter sets up a textbook path for increased wallet share per customer. If NYSE:FIG executes this transition well, revenue growth in the high twenties could be sustained even if seat growth downshifts.

Profitability, Free Cash Flow And Margin Trajectory At NYSE:FIG

Despite being haloed as a growth story, NYSE:FIG is already in positive free-cash-flow territory with improving profitability. Free cash flow margins have recently been in the mid-teens, roughly 16–18%, occasionally exceeding non-GAAP operating margins due to strong growth in deferred revenue. Non-GAAP operating margins are tracking around the low- to mid-teens; projecting 15% for the next year is reasonable based on current trends. With projected revenue around $1.33–$1.35 billion, that implies non-GAAP operating income near $200 million. Effective non-GAAP tax rates are expected around 10% under the new corporate tax regime, which would generate roughly $0.36 in non-GAAP EPS, above the current consensus near $0.24. The company has a net cash position of approximately $1.6 billion, which adds interest income and provides ample dry powder for product investment and selective acquisitions without stressing the balance sheet. Free cash flow margins could stabilise around 16%+ over the next year as scale effects and multi-product deals improve unit economics. Stock-based compensation and share-count dilution are real considerations; non-GAAP share counts are around 472 million today, with models that prudently assume roughly 495 million as an average over the next year to account for further SBC and lock-up expirations.

Valuation Frameworks: EV/Sales, DCF And Analyst Targets For NYSE:FIG

The valuation picture for NYSE:FIG is mixed, which explains why some investors see deep value and others still see excess. One detailed fundamental analysis pegs the current enterprise value at about 9.3–9.4× forward sales using a $1.35 billion revenue estimate and the current market cap around $14 billion, arguing this multiple is below peers like Axon, Cloudflare, Shopify and Snowflake despite comparable or higher growth. Another respected commentator focuses on a more conservative consensus of $1.29 billion in 2026 revenue, putting NYSE:FIG closer to 13× forward sales and calling the stock expensive until growth guidance proves more aggressive. On top of that, a Discounted Cash Flow framework from Simply Wall St, using a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model with last-twelve-month free cash flow of about $283.9 million and projected FCF of $428.6 million by 2029, arrives at a fair value of roughly $19.70 per share. Against a price around $28.46, that model labels NYSE:FIG about 44.5% overvalued on strict DCF assumptions. In contrast, the same source notes that the current price sits roughly 49% below an average analyst target around $56, flagging potential upside if the market converges to sell-side expectations. That divergence—overvalued on conservative DCF, undervalued versus analyst targets—is exactly how controversy manifests: the equity is priced as if growth will slow more sharply than bulls expect, but not cheap enough to satisfy classic value investors.

Risk Factors: Growth Deceleration, AI Hype, Competition And Supply Overhang In NYSE:FIG

Key risks around NYSE:FIG are real and non-trivial. The first is growth deceleration. Consensus expects revenue growth to slow from about 40% in 2025 to roughly 24% in 2026. If reported guidance in the upcoming Q4 release fails to lift that band meaningfully, the market could compress the multiple further. The second is AI hype and the possibility that investors lose patience with all but the core AI infrastructure winners. Figma is seen as an “AI beneficiary” but not as an AI infrastructure pure-play; if the AI trade sours, high-multiple application names like NYSE:FIG may see more volatility. The third is competition, especially from AI-native entries and from Anthropic’s Claude Cowork, even if current functionality is more complementary than substitutive. Feature commoditisation is a threat: AI-driven design aids are now table stakes across design tools, and pricing power could be pressured if rivals undercut. The fourth is supply overhang: lock-up expirations in March and August 2026 will release more insider shares into the float, which has already contributed to prior drawdowns. Additional risks include execution missteps in rolling out usage-based AI pricing, potential acquisition misfires as Figma uses its cash balance for M&A (Weavy was the fourth acquisition and integrated to bolster AI), and broader macro or rate shocks that hit long-duration growth valuations disproportionately.

Management Quality And Execution Capability Behind NYSE:FIG

Management quality is an integral part of the investment case in NYSE:FIG. Co-founder Dylan Field still leads the company as CEO, widely regarded as a product-obsessed operator with strong credibility among designers and software investors. The team around him is experienced: the Chief Revenue Officer previously drove sales at Datadog; the CTO has been with Figma since 2017 and steers technical strategy; the Chief Product Officer, credited with FigJam’s architecture, oversees AI initiatives such as Make and the broader multi-product expansion. This continuity at the top has underpinned Figma’s ability to out-innovate Adobe in its own backyard, transition from private to public markets, integrate acquisitions like Weavy to bolster AI and collaboration, and maintain high revenue growth with rising free cash flow. Any disruption at the leadership level—especially Dylan Field’s departure—would be a material negative catalyst; conversely, continued execution from this team is a key reason why some long-term investors are prepared to buy through the current drawdown rather than wait for perfect sentiment.

Investment Stance On NYSE:FIG – Buy, Sell Or Hold

Pulling the strands together, NYSE:FIG is a classic high-beta growth name whose stock has overshot in both directions: first to extreme overvaluation above $140, then to a much more reasonable but still debated zone around $28. Revenue is compounding near 38%; net retention is 131%; free cash flow margins are mid-teens and improving; the collaboration and UI/UX franchise is entrenched at 95% of the Fortune 500; and AI features like Figma Make plus upcoming usage-based pricing on AI credits create a plausible path to sustain high-20s growth rather than the mid-20s that consensus models. Against that, the stock still demands a premium multiple, whether you call it 9–10× or 13× forward sales depending on your revenue line. DCF purists can justify a fair value in the high teens using conservative assumptions, while growth investors see almost a 50% discount to an average sell-side target around $56. The market is pricing in real risks: AI competition, sector rotation away from software, unlock overhang and the possibility that Figma’s first full-year guidance disappoints. Based strictly on the data provided and the operating momentum, the balance of evidence points to a mispriced leader rather than a broken story. The current reset around $28 on NYSE:FIG, after a 58% slide since the last strong quarter and more than 80% from peak, offers an asymmetric profile for patient capital. The verdict, with full recognition of volatility and drawdown risk, is a high-risk Buy on NYSE:FIG, sized appropriately and accumulated gradually rather than chased in a single trade.

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