Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Futures Climb as META Rallies and Gold Breaks Above $5,500

Stock Market Today - META Rallies and Gold Breaks Above $5,500

Wall Street Futures And Global Indices

U.S. futures are pointing higher, with indices grinding up while volatility rotates into single names and commodities. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures trade around 49,224–49,227, up roughly 0.1–0.12%, with E-Mini Dow (YM=F) hovering near 49,221.00, +54 points. E-Mini S&P 500 (ES=F) sits close to 7,021–7,022, up about 0.2–0.21%, while E-Mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) is near 26,199–26,201, up around 0.17–0.3%. The cash S&P 500 (^GSPC) is lining up another attempt to hold above the 7,000 mark after briefly topping that level yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added just 12 points in the prior session, signaling that leadership remains concentrated in tech and metals rather than classic blue-chips. The Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.2%, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) supporting the move. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 trades near 611.40, up roughly 0.47%, underscoring a broader risk-on bias. In the background, the VIX sits around 16.60, up about 1.53%, showing that index-level worry is contained even as dispersion inside sectors is extreme. For Trading News readers, the message is clear: indices are drifting higher, but the real money is being made in the winners and losers around earnings, tariffs, and commodities, not in the top-down beta trade.

Big Tech Earnings Rotation – META, MSFT, TSLA And AAPL

The Nasdaq 100 tone is being set by four heavyweight tickers: Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). They are driving both outperformance and sharp reversals. Meta Platforms (META) is the main outperformer. The stock closed at $668.73 (-0.63%) but trades near $728.24 in pre-market, up about 8.9%. Q4 EPS reached $8.88 on revenue of $59.89 billion, beating expectations of $8.23 and $58.59 billion. Guidance is even stronger: Q1 revenue is projected in a $53.5–$56.5 billion band, comfortably ahead of the roughly $51.41 billion consensus. Meta is also signaling aggressive AI build-out, with data-center spending plans climbing as it races to dominate AI products. Internally, productivity gains are striking: engineering output is up about 30% since early 2025, and AI power users are seeing around 80% higher output. That combination of revenue beat, strong guidance and operating leverage justifies the stock’s gap-up. For Trading News readers, META is a clear Buy / Bullish, with AI and monetization momentum overpowering valuation concerns in the near term.
Microsoft (MSFT) is the flip side. The stock closed at $481.63 (+0.22%) but trades near $447.54 pre-market, down roughly 7.08%. On paper, the quarter is strong: EPS came in around $5.16 versus forecasts of $3.92, and revenue hit roughly $81.27 billion versus $80.3 billion expected. Microsoft Cloud revenue reached about $51.5 billion, slightly above the $51.2 billion consensus and up from $40.9 billion a year earlier. The problem is the cost of staying ahead in AI. Capex and finance leases climbed to roughly $37.5 billion, well above estimates near $34.3 billion. Investors are pushing back against that spend, especially after the company briefly reached a $4 trillion market cap in July. With the stock priced for flawless execution, any hint of margin compression is punished. At Trading News level, the call is MSFT Hold / Neutral-to-Cautious: structurally bullish on AI and cloud, but short-term risk/reward looks balanced after a >7% pre-market hit.
Tesla (TSLA) is reshaping its own story. The company reported Q4 results that beat expectations even as it logged its first annual revenue decline on record, with sales falling in three of the past four quarters. Deliveries totaled about 1.59 million units last year, with Model 3 and Model Y representing roughly 97% of volume. Management is ending production of Model S and Model X and reallocating the Fremont factory toward Optimus humanoid robots. This is a high-conviction pivot from pure EV volumes to robotics and AI. The stock is up around 2–3% in pre-market trading on the back of the earnings beat and the new narrative. For Trading News, the stance is TSLA Hold / Speculative Bullish: the upside is large if robots scale, but the execution and valuation risk are equally high.
Apple (AAPL) trades modestly lower ahead of results, down about 0.7% in pre-market trading. After META’s surge and MSFT’s pullback, Apple becomes the swing factor for whether the S&P 500 can decisively hold above 7,000. Market focus is on iPhone traction, services margin, and any credible AI device roadmap. Until those numbers arrive, the Trading News position is AAPL Hold: neither cheap enough to be a clear value play nor weak enough to short into an uncertain print.

Legacy Tech And Software – IBM Outperforms While SAP Lags

In older-guard tech, International Business Machines (IBM) is delivering a major upside surprise. The stock closed at about $294.16 (+0.10%) and is trading near $323.40 in pre-market, rallying roughly 9.96%. Q4 revenue reached around $19.69 billion, beating expectations of about $19.21–$19.23 billion. Segment detail is decisive: software revenue grew 14%, consulting climbed 3%, and infrastructure jumped 21%. EPS printed at approximately $4.52 versus forecasts near $4.32. Adding that to a roughly 30% share price gain over the past year, IBM is proving that its hybrid cloud and Red Hat strategy can generate double-digit growth from a franchise many investors had written off as ex-growth. On Trading News metrics, IBM is a Buy / Bullish: a cheaper AI and cloud proxy than MSFT or META, with positive revisions and less extreme valuation risk.
SAP SE (SAP) is having the opposite experience. The ADR closed at about $236.11 (+0.93%) but trades near $202.09 pre-market, collapsing roughly 14.44%. The company reported Q4 revenue that met expectations, with cloud pre-orders around $25 billion, but that figure missed estimates by roughly 1%. 2026 cloud revenue guidance also disappointed. Management blames delayed ramp-up on a handful of “mega deals,” but the market is trading the print, not the rationale. In a cloud universe priced for relentless acceleration, “almost good enough” has become a sell signal. For Trading News, the call is SAP Hold with Bearish Bias: fundamentals are not broken, yet a >14% gap-down suggests more sideways or downside as guidance resets and confidence rebuilds.

Industrials, Travel And Cyclicals – CAT, HON, LVS, RCL And WHR

Cyclical names are splitting sharply between winners and losers. Caterpillar (CAT) is one of the strongest U.S. industrials today. The stock trades more than 5% higher in pre-market action after posting Q4 adjusted EPS of about $5.26, smashing expectations near $4.68. Revenue came in around $19.13 billion, well above the $17.86 billion consensus. A 23% increase in power and energy sales was the core driver. In a world where AI gets the headlines, CAT is quietly monetizing real-world machinery demand tied to energy, infrastructure, and construction. On Trading News view, CAT is a Buy / Cyclical Bullish: strong earnings, robust pricing and sector tailwinds justify continued outperformance versus the Dow average.
Honeywell (HON) is more muted. The company reported Q4 EPS of about $2.59, beating estimates near $2.54, but revenue of roughly $9.76 billion missed the $9.85 billion consensus. The stock is trading modestly lower, around 0.8–2% down pre-market, suggesting investors are not rewarding margin management when top-line momentum lags. For Trading News readers, HON is a Hold: quality business, but not the best way to express cyclical upside while CAT is delivering double beats.
In travel and leisure, dispersion is brutal. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) closed near $61.26 (+1.51%) but fell to roughly $55.74 pre-market, down about 8.95%, after adjusted earnings undershot expectations. Markets are re-rating Macau and Vegas exposure now that the easy post-pandemic rebound is behind us. On Trading News stance, LVS is a Sell / Bearish: a near-9% gap-down on a miss, with no clear structural growth surprise, is a signal to stay away until the narrative resets.
Royal Caribbean (RCL) goes the other way. The stock is up about 6% pre-market after the company’s 2026 earnings guidance beat Wall Street estimates. Cruise demand and pricing power remain resilient despite rate headwinds. For Trading News, that supports a RCL Hold-to-Buy / Constructive call: the recovery story is intact, but after a huge multi-year run, investors should expect more volatility around future guidance updates.
Whirlpool (WHR) is a clear loser in the rate-sensitive consumer bucket. Shares are down around 10% pre-market after the company reported an unexpected decline in sales. In a backdrop where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are making new highs, appliances tied to the housing cycle are flashing late-cycle strain. From a Trading News perspective, WHR is a Sell / Bearish: weak demand, high rate exposure and limited secular growth make it an unattractive play compared with AI, metals and high-quality cyclicals like CAT.

Autos Under Tariff Pressure – Toyota And Hyundai

Trade policy is hitting autos hard and unevenly. Toyota Motor Corp. expects U.S. tariffs to cut about $9 billion from operating profit this fiscal year. That blow comes despite record 2025 sales that cemented Toyota as the world’s top-selling automaker. Demand for hybrids in Japan and the U.S. remains strong, helping support the share price, which trades around ¥3,448, up roughly 3.02%. The message to Trading News readers is that Toyota is absorbing sizeable policy damage while still executing on product mix and regional demand. That justifies a Toyota Hold / Mildly Bullish stance: upside is constrained by politics, but the fundamental engine remains strong.
Hyundai Motor is dealing with a similarly large shock. The company estimates that U.S. tariffs cost roughly 4.1 trillion won (about $2.9 billion) last year and expects a similar hit in 2026. Despite this, its shares are up about 7.21% to ₩528,000. Investors appear to be betting that the bulk of the tariff impact is now in the price and that management will adapt through cost control and mix. Trading News sees Hyundai as a Hold / Speculative Turnaround: there is room for upside if tariffs ease or cost actions succeed, but the profit hole is real and large.

Metals Breakout – Gold, Silver And Copper Take Center Stage

The most aggressive move on the screen is in precious and industrial metals. Gold futures (GC=F) have exploded higher, trading around $5,528.90–$5,566.20 per ounce, up roughly 4.23–4.25% on the day and more than 20% year-to-date. Spot gold has pushed above $5,500, with intraday prices near $5,540.24, gaining about 2.61% overnight and extending Wednesday’s jump above $5,300 after the Fed meeting. The Gold Continuous Contract is also quoted near $5,528.90, up about $225.30 on the session.
The move is backed by hard flows. A World Gold Council report highlights record inflows of around $89 billion into gold-backed ETFs last year, translating to more than 800 metric tons of additional demand. That stacks on top of sustained central-bank purchases and large allocations from crypto-linked players such as Tether. With the WSJ Dollar Index sitting near 94.02, its lowest since early 2022, and a broader dollar index around 96.38 drifting lower, the weak-dollar plus geopolitical-risk backdrop is feeding the gold story every day.
Silver is amplifying the move. Silver continuous contracts trade around $119.31 per ounce, up about 5.09% on the session and at record territory. Historically, when gold breaks out, silver often delivers higher beta, and that pattern is repeating.
Copper is joining the melt-up. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange have jumped more than 6%, trading close to $14,000 per metric ton. U.S. copper contracts are higher as well, lifting shares of miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) by more than 4% in pre-market trading, alongside Antofagasta, BHP and Glencore.
From a Trading News perspective, Gold and Silver are Buys / Strong Bullish in this regime. Massive ETF inflows, central-bank demand, a rapidly weakening dollar and explicit political tolerance for FX debasement collectively support higher prices. For copper and miners, the call is FCX and quality copper plays as Buys / Pro-Growth Bullish: a world spending heavily on AI data centers, electrification and energy transition will need copper, and prices near $14,000 are sending exactly that signal.

Crude Oil, Iran Tensions And The Energy Risk Premium

Crude is adding a geopolitical premium on top of its fundamental base. Brent crude (BZ=F) trades around $68.83–$69 per barrel, up roughly 2.17–2.4%, marking the highest levels since late September. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is above $64 a barrel, with quotes near $64.78–$64.81, up about 2.52–2.6%. The broader S&P GSCI spot index stands around 612.96, up about 2.19%, reinforcing the broad commodity bid.
The catalyst is escalating tension between the U.S. and Iran. Trump has warned that Iran must quickly agree to a nuclear deal or face U.S. military strikes, stating that a “massive armada” of U.S. warships is ready to act “with speed and violence, if necessary.” Markets are pricing the risk that any strike disrupts flows from the Middle East, which supplies roughly one-third of global crude, and that Iran could retaliate by targeting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for both oil and LNG tankers. Options markets show traders paying elevated premiums for bullish call structures for the longest stretch in about 14 months, confirming that hedging demand is real.
On Trading News assessment, oil is a Hold-to-Buy / Geopolitical Bullish trade. With Brent near $69 and WTI around $64–65, there is room for spikes if conflict escalates, though large global supply and potential U.S. shale response cap the upside over the medium term. For active traders, buying dips in CL=F and BZ=F while the Iran risk premium persists is justified, but position sizing must respect headline risk.

Fed Policy, Treasury Yields And Dollar Slide

Monetary policy is adding another layer to the risk narrative. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in its first meeting of 2026. The decision passed on a 10–2 vote, with Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissenting, highlighting internal disagreement on how quickly to ease. The statement acknowledges that “economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace” and that the unemployment rate “has shown some signs of stabilization,” signaling no urgency to cut.
The rates market still prices in about two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end, according to CME FedWatch, but expectations for the first cut have drifted further out, potentially beyond the end of Jerome Powell’s term in May. Attention is turning to Trump’s upcoming nomination for the next Fed chair, a decision that will shape the trajectory of U.S. yields and the dollar.
On the curve, short-dated Treasury yields have eased slightly, while long-dated yields have risen. The U.S. 10-year trades near 4.249–4.26%, after briefly pushing above 4.26%, indicating a bear-steepening: front-end anchored, back-end higher. That move reflects a re-pricing of term premium and inflation risk rather than imminent recession.
The dollar is simultaneously breaking lower. The WSJ Dollar Index stands around 94.02, flat on the day but at its lowest level since early 2022. Another key dollar index trades near 96.38, down about 0.06–0.07. Earlier in the week, the greenback posted its worst one-day decline since April 2025, revisiting levels last seen in February 2022. Trump openly supports the weaker currency, saying “No, I think it’s great” when asked if he worries about the decline. That stance validates the market’s move into gold and other hard assets.
Trading News view: Treasuries are a Hold, with a 10-year near 4.25% offering only moderate value while deficits are large and cuts are delayed. The USD is Bearish, and that underpins bullish calls on GC=F, SI, copper and non-U.S. risk assets.

Asia-Pacific Markets And Emerging-Market Stress

Asia is digesting Fed policy and tech earnings with a mixed tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) trades near 53,375.60, slightly positive at around +0.03% after earlier small losses. Some technology companies posted strong earnings, including chip-related names such as Advantest (ATEYY), which jumped roughly 6.7% after better-than-expected results, but broader Tokyo trade remains cautious.
South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) is the regional outperformer, up about 0.9% to 5,218.81, a fresh record. SK Hynix added around 2% after a strong earnings report, confirming that Korean chipmakers are direct beneficiaries of the global AI and memory-upgrade cycle. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (^HSI) gained about 0.3% to 27,905.24, and China’s Shanghai Composite edged down around 0.1% to 4,147.15, reflecting ongoing skepticism about the strength of China’s recovery. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) slipped 0.6% to 8,883.30, hurt by local rate concerns and commodity volatility.
The real shock is in Indonesia. The BISNIS-27.JK index dropped about 7.4% after MSCI warned about market risks, reminding investors that liquidity can evaporate quickly in smaller emerging markets when global risk appetite shifts.
From a Trading News angle, the stance is Selective Bullish on Asia, with preference for Korea and Japan as AI and advanced-manufacturing plays, while being cautious on high-beta EM indices like Indonesia that are exposed to sudden index-provider and policy shocks.

Crypto Reaction – Bitcoin Bends As Gold Leads

While metals rally, cryptocurrencies are under pressure. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $87,809–$87,809.45, down roughly 1.34% on the session, leading a broader decline in digital assets. Iran tensions and the rush into gold are reshaping the risk ladder. Instead of functioning as a safe haven, BTC is trading more like a high-beta equity proxy, selling off as investors move into physical hedges such as gold and silver, which now sit at $5,500+ and $119+ respectively.
From a Trading News point of view, Bitcoin is a Hold / Volatile Neutral. Structural adoption and ETF flows may support the asset class over the medium term, but in this regime, gold clearly owns the safe-haven narrative, while BTC is being treated as risk capital.

Overall Trading News Stance – Indices, Sectors And Buy/Sell/Hold Calls

Putting the full tape together, Trading News sees U.S. equities with a Bullish bias on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and a Neutral stance on the Dow. Futures in ES=F around 7,021–7,022 and NQ=F near 26,199–26,201, backed by strong META and IBM prints, suggest further upside as long as AI capex and earnings surprises keep arriving. The Dow will lag unless industrials and financials broadly match the beats seen in CAT.
By sector and stock, the strongest opportunities are: META (Buy / Bullish) on AI-driven guidance and powerful productivity gains; IBM (Buy / Bullish) as a hybrid-cloud and AI beneficiary with accelerating revenue; CAT (Buy / Cyclical Bullish) on double-digit beats and energy-linked demand; Gold, Silver and Copper (Buy / Strong Bullish) via GC=F, SI, and quality miners such as FCX; and RCL (Hold-to-Buy) as a cruise recovery name with better-than-expected 2026 guidance.
Names warranting caution or avoidance include MSFT (Hold / Neutral-Cautious) after a >7% pre-market markdown on heavy AI capex; TSLA (Hold / Speculative Bullish) as the robot pivot creates a binary long-term story; SAP (Hold / Bearish Bias) following a >14% guidance-driven sell-off; LVS (Sell / Bearish) on a nearly 9% gap-down after an earnings miss; and WHR (Sell / Bearish) as housing-linked demand shows late-cycle weakness.
Across macro assets, Trading News keeps oil (CL=F, BZ=F) at Hold-to-Buy, with Brent near $69 and WTI around $64–65 supported by Iran tension; U.S. Treasuries at Hold with a 10-year near 4.25% in a steepening curve; and the USD at Bearish, unlocking further upside potential for metals and non-U.S. risk assets. In today’s market, outperformance is clustered around AI leaders, high-quality cyclicals and the metals complex, while underperformance is concentrated in high-expectation software misses, weaker travel names and rate-sensitive consumer stocks.

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