XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Struggles Below $2 As 1.86B Sell Wall Holds

Ripple XRP-USD Price: Trading Under A Heavy $2 Ceiling

Current Price Zone And Short-Term Context

XRP-USD is oscillating just below the $2 mark, with spot ranges concentrated roughly between $1.80 and $1.95. Recent pushes toward $1.94–$1.95 have repeatedly failed to establish a stable foothold above that band, and intraday dips back toward $1.86–$1.88 show sellers are still in control whenever price approaches the upper edge of the range. Short-term structure is corrective rather than impulsive: rallies are being sold, not extended, and each failure near $2 reinforces that level as a hard ceiling for now.

Technical Structure: EMAs, Trend Lines And Key Support Zones

On the 12-hour chart, the 20-period exponential moving average around $1.94 is the key short-term pivot for XRP-USD. Every sustained upside leg since December started with a clean reclaim of this 20-EMA on strong volume and then continued with larger follow-through candles. The clearest case was the January 1–6 advance, where a decisive reclaim of the 20-EMA triggered a move of roughly 28% from the low-$1.50s / high-$1.60s area up into the $1.90–$2.00 band. Later reclaims around December 9, December 20 and January 28 were structurally weaker: price briefly pushed above the 20-EMA but volume faded almost immediately, selling pressure came back in, and the average flipped from support back to resistance. On the hourly chart, structure has deteriorated further. XRP-USD broke below a rising trend line that had been supporting the move near $1.91, then slipped under roughly $1.88–$1.89 and the 100-hour simple moving average. That confirms the very short-term bias is now tilted to the downside. Intraday resistance levels cluster around $1.90 and $1.925, with a more important cap near $1.95. Above that, $2.00 and then $2.05 are the next upside checkpoints. On the downside, initial support sits around $1.86, aligning with the 61.8% retracement of the $1.81–$1.945 swing, followed by $1.842, $1.82 and $1.80. Deeper, $1.765 is the next meaningful shelf. On the daily chart, the $1.8193–$1.7713 band marks the primary support zone. A daily close below that area would expose roughly $1.615 as the next larger target. On the top side, the late-January high near $1.9894 is the first daily resistance that needs to be cleared, followed by the $2.0283–$2.0859 resistance pocket and then the early-January spike peak around $2.4159. While XRP-USD remains below about $1.9894 on a daily close, near-term pressure stays bearish; while it trades below roughly $2.19 and above about $1.82, the medium-term structure is neutral with a downside bias.

The 1.96–1.98 XRP-USD Supply Block: Anatomy Of The $2 Failure

The repeated rejection just under $2 is driven by hard on-chain supply, not just sentiment. Cost-basis data shows a dense cluster between approximately $1.96 and $1.98, representing around 1.86 billion XRP that last changed hands in that band. That is a classic break-even zone: when XRP-USD revisits it, a large cohort of holders has an incentive to sell, derisk or exit flat, creating a persistent supply wall. When XRP-USD pushes up off the 20-EMA with only average volume and no surge in underlying demand, the reclaim simply drives price into that 1.96–1.98 block and stalls. The January 1–6 move shows what it takes to cut through it: exchange outflows jumped from around 8.9 million XRP to roughly 38.5 million XRP, signalling that more coins were leaving exchanges for self-custody instead of being deposited to sell. Even though 38.5 million is a fraction of 1.86 billion, the more than 300% rise in outflows, combined with rising spot volume, was enough to absorb marginal selling at the wall and drive XRP-USD through the cluster and briefly beyond $2. More recent pushes have not shown that profile. On January 28, outflows briefly spiked to about 18.1 million XRP, helped price pop intraday, then collapsed to near 5.4 million XRP by January 29. That drop in sustained demand explains why every rebound into the high-$1.90s fails: the market keeps hitting the same 1.86-billion-XRP wall with weaker and shorter-lived buying.

Order Flow, Leverage And Liquidations Around XRP-USD

Derivatives positioning has amplified both the upside and the downside. Ahead of the latest sell-off, futures and perpetuals data showed a build-up of long exposure as traders chased the early-year strength, betting that the January rally from late-2025 lows would extend through $2 and beyond. When XRP-USD stalled, failed to clear $1.95–$1.99, and slipped back below $1.90, funding softened, stops were triggered, and long liquidations accelerated the move. That explains why the decline under $1.90 happened faster than spot selling alone would justify. The same dynamic works in reverse on the way up: when the market is under-positioned and a strong catalyst kicks in (macro dovishness, structural outflows, or a clean technical breakout), short covering and new longs can send XRP-USD through resistance bands faster than the spot tape would suggest. At the moment, the leverage reset and a still-cautious stance from traders mean that price is more sensitive to adverse macro headlines than to incremental positive XRP-specific news.

Macro Drivers: Fed Policy, Dollar Moves And Risk Appetite For XRP-USD

Macro conditions are setting the tone for all high-beta crypto, including XRP-USD. Bitcoin is trading close to $89,000 and ether is around $3,000, but moves are dominated by expectations for the Federal Reserve and the path of US rates. The upcoming Fed decision, with a statement at 2 p.m. ET and a press conference half an hour later, is the major near-term macro event. The base case is no rate cut and a message that there is “no urgency” to ease aggressively, which keeps the dollar relatively firm and caps risk assets. In that environment, every risk-on push in XRP-USD runs into a headwind from the rates side: any hawkish tone or higher-for-longer signal can trigger a quick spike in yields, a stronger dollar and a mechanical de-risking from leveraged crypto positions. Earlier in January, a brief uptick in bond yields and wobbling equity indices triggered risk-off across speculative assets, including a roughly 55% drawdown in XRP-USD from October highs. As equities have stabilised and major indices in the US and Asia have tested or printed fresh records, XRP-USD has managed only a modest recovery, underscoring that while the token participates in relief, it lags when liquidity and attention are focused elsewhere, particularly on the pure AI infrastructure trade. For the next leg, the key questions are whether the Fed can deliver a softer path for rates without reigniting inflation worries, and whether that pivot is enough to attract fresh capital into altcoins like XRP-USD rather than just into mega-cap tech and BTC.

Ripple Treasury, RLUSD And The Institutional Narrative For XRP-USD

Ripple is trying to push XRP-USD deeper into institutional treasuries and corporate workflows. GTreasury, a Ripple subsidiary, has launched “Ripple Treasury,” a unified platform aimed at CFOs and treasurers who want to handle traditional cash and digital assets side by side. The value proposition is straightforward: forecasting, reconciliation and payments in one environment, with faster cross-border settlement using both RLUSD – a dollar-pegged stablecoin – and XRP itself. For XRP-USD, the key angle is not short-term price impact but rails and relevance. If treasurers begin to see RLUSD and XRP as practical tools for global liquidity management rather than speculative chips, that supports sustained transaction demand, deeper liquidity and a stronger use-case narrative. Ripple is also leaning into its ecosystem branding with an XRP Community Day on February 11–12, featuring CEO Brad Garlinghouse and President Monica Long, with sessions around ETFs, wrapped XRP and regulated products. These events and products do not move the chart in a single day, but they reinforce the longer-term story that XRP-USD is more than a trading pair and is being positioned as a backbone asset for settlement and treasury in a regulated framework.

XRP-USD On-Chain Strength: Whale Wallets And Exchange Flows

Despite the price wobble under $1.90, the XRP ledger is flashing accumulation signals. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP increased their balances from about 11.03 billion to roughly 11.19 billion XRP since January 21 – nearly 160 million XRP added in a few days. The very largest wallets with over 1 billion XRP have nudged their holdings higher by around 30 million XRP. Separately, the number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP has risen for the first time since September 2025, with 42 such wallets returning to activity since the start of the year. At current levels, each of these wallets holds at least about $1.8 million in XRP. This pattern – more high-value wallets and moderate net accumulation – shows that larger players are systematically taking the other side of the recent sell-off. They are not forcing an immediate squeeze, but they are using weakness below $2 to build exposure rather than exit. Conversely, small and mid-sized traders have tended to send coins to exchanges during dips, boosting exchange-side reserves and driving short-term price lower. That divergence – big wallets buying, smaller holders selling – is classic late-correction behaviour and supports a medium-term constructive view, provided macro conditions don’t deteriorate sharply.

XRP Ledger Activity Records: DEX Volume, Transactions And Network Usage

Three structural records on the XRP ledger underpin the long-term case for XRP-USD. First, the multi-million-XRP wallet cohort is expanding again, as noted above, which historically has aligned with medium-term bottoms rather than tops. Second, decentralized exchange activity is surging. The 14-day average number of DEX transactions on XRPL recently broke above 1.014 million, punching through a ceiling that held since early 2025. That’s not a one-day spike; the moving average confirms a persistent expansion in on-chain swapping and DeFi behaviour on XRPL. Third, daily on-chain transaction counts have exceeded 2 million and reached around 2.5 million at points this month. In 2025 there were two similar phases – January–March and June–July – when XRPL activity moved above 2 million daily transactions; both were followed by sharp XRP-USD rallies, including a “god candle” above $3 and an all-time high close to $3.60 in July. That historical pattern does not guarantee a repeat, but it shows that surging on-chain activity and DEX usage have coincided with major impulsive legs in the past. Taken together, rising whale counts, record DEX volume and elevated transactions suggest that the underlying network is strengthening even as spot price consolidates below $2.

Sentiment, ETFs, Community Events And The Narrative Around XRP-USD

Sentiment in the XRP-USD ecosystem is being pulled in two directions. On one hand, traders focus on unresolved catalysts: the potential for XRP-linked ETFs, the evolution of wrapped XRP products, and the pipeline of regulated offerings that would make XRP more accessible to traditional investors. On the other, the broader market is fixated on AI infrastructure and macro policy, leaving less immediate capital for alt-specific stories. The upcoming virtual XRP Community Day aims to re-concentrate attention on the asset’s ecosystem roadmap, with leadership highlighting regulated products, treasury integrations and cross-border settlement use cases. Market participants also pay close attention to “liquidity signals” such as wallet-level inflows, exchange order book depth and cross-venue spreads. Commentary from trading desks has emphasised that XRP-USD still benefits from deep order books on major venues, which helps absorb episodic shocks but does not, on its own, generate sustained uptrends. The narrative risk is straightforward: if macro remains tight and AI-themed assets keep dominating flows, XRP-specific events may move sentiment only briefly before the market reverts to trading the dollar and yields.

Risk Landscape For XRP-USD: Levels Where The Setup Fails

The main technical risk for XRP-USD is a clean break below the current structural support band. A decisive daily close under approximately $1.82–$1.80 would invalidate the current consolidation thesis and point to a deeper corrective leg toward roughly $1.765 and potentially into the low-$1.60s, with around $1.615 as a logical downside objective. From a macro perspective, a more hawkish Fed stance or a renewed spike in yields and the dollar would quickly pressure all high-beta crypto; in that environment, XRP-USD tends to underperform on the downside because of its leverage profile and the speed at which speculators cut risk. On the sentiment side, any delay or disappointment around XRP-linked ETFs, wrapped products or institutional use-cases could drain narrative support just as the market is testing critical technical levels. Finally, prolonged macro stress would likely weaken network activity, DEX volume and whale accumulation, eroding the on-chain pillars currently supporting the medium-term bullish case.

Trading Stance On XRP-USD: Buy, Sell Or Hold And Directional Bias

Pulling together price structure, on-chain data, macro context and order flow, XRP-USD sits in a compression zone that does not justify a blunt directional extreme. The token trades below a clearly defined supply block at roughly $1.96–$1.98 and under multiple resistance bands up to about $2.09, while resting on a support shelf that starts near $1.82 and extends to around $1.77. At the same time, whales are accumulating, XRPL usage is printing records, and Ripple is adding institutional infrastructure with Ripple Treasury and RLUSD. That combination points to a market where fundamentals are improving but technicals are still capped by big overhead supply and macro uncertainty. The stance that fits this mix is Hold, with a cautiously bullish medium-term bias. The risk-reward for aggressive new buying at $1.85–$1.95 is not attractive as long as the 1.86-billion-XRP wall between roughly $1.96 and $1.98 remains intact and the 20-EMA at $1.94 keeps flipping back to resistance. The better asymmetric entries sit closer to the $1.82–$1.77 band, where support, whale accumulation and on-chain strength converge. A daily close above roughly $1.99–$2.03 with strong volume, rising exchange outflows and sustained DEX activity would flip the short-term profile to decisively bullish and reopen the path toward the $2.19 area and, later, the $2.40s. Until then, the data supports patience, disciplined risk management and a structurally constructive, but not blindly bullish, view on XRP-USD.

That's TradingNEWS