Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Climbs to $4,140 as Dollar Eases, CPI in Focus — Bulls Eye $4,200–$4,380 Breakout

Gold Rebounds to $4,140 as Investors Reenter the Market Amid Dollar Pause and CPI Focus

Gold (XAU/USD) traded at $4,140.67, up 1.01% on Wednesday, as traders cautiously rotated back into safe-haven assets following two sessions of steep losses. The rebound, driven by renewed demand from central banks and dip buyers, comes as the U.S. dollar paused its rally and markets positioned for Thursday’s U.S. CPI report—a release expected to dictate the Federal Reserve’s tone into year-end.

The metal had fallen more than 5% earlier in the week, its worst two-day decline since 2013, dropping from record highs above $4,380 after a wave of profit-taking triggered by ETF outflows and higher Treasury yields. Yet gold’s recovery near the $4,140 mark reflects resilience: investors continue to see every pullback as a buying opportunity in a macro environment defined by high debt, policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth.

The U.S. 10-year yield stabilized near 4.62%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) slipped slightly to 98.8, easing pressure on precious metals. According to CFTC data, net long positions in COMEX gold rose 8% week-over-week, indicating hedge funds are positioning for a rebound ahead of CPI data that could confirm disinflation and reinforce expectations for a December rate cut.

At the same time, physical demand remains solid. The People’s Bank of China added roughly 15 tons of gold in September, marking its 17th consecutive month of accumulation, while India’s central bank increased holdings by 5 tons. These steady purchases underscore how official institutions are diversifying away from U.S. assets, particularly as Washington’s debt nears $36 trillion and political gridlock over fiscal policy persists.

Spot demand is also visible in Asia. The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium widened to $37/oz over London prices, signaling tight local supply and strong retail demand ahead of China’s Golden Week. Meanwhile, ETF flows remain mixed: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) saw outflows of 7.5 tons this week, while European-listed funds recorded their first inflows in over two months. The divergence highlights how Western investors are trading short-term volatility, while Eastern buyers continue accumulating at every dip.

Technically, gold is attempting to base above key support at $4,100, with the next resistance near $4,200, followed by $4,250. A daily close above $4,200 would confirm renewed bullish momentum and potentially retest the $4,380 record high. On the downside, $4,050 remains the critical support zone—losing it could trigger a correction toward $3,940, where the 50-day moving average currently sits. The RSI at 57 suggests there’s still room for upside before conditions become overbought.

J.P. Morgan’s commodities desk maintained a bullish target of $5,055/oz for late 2026, citing sustained central-bank demand and investor diversification away from fiat currencies. The bank projects prices could even reach $6,000/oz by 2028 if global reserves shift just 0.5 percentage points from U.S. dollar holdings into bullion. Scotiabank echoed that optimism, lifting its 2025 forecast to $3,450, with 2026 projected at $3,800, and upgrading gold producers like Newmont (NYSE:NEM) and Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) to Sector Outperform.

The broader precious-metals complex followed gold higher: silver (XAG/USD) rose 2.3% to $49.10, platinum (PL/USD) advanced 3.6% to $1,610, and palladium (PA/USD) climbed 2.8% to $1,285. Analysts noted that the sharp rebound across the complex indicates renewed speculative appetite as the dollar rally loses steam.

Despite short-term volatility, the structural setup for gold remains bullish. Global liquidity is expanding again as central banks from Asia to Europe turn dovish, and investors continue to view bullion as protection against currency debasement and fiscal excess. With geopolitical tensions from the Middle East to Eastern Europe still unresolved, gold’s safe-haven premium remains firmly in place.

Outlook: As long as gold holds above $4,100, the path of least resistance remains higher. A confirmed breakout above $4,200 could open the door to retesting the $4,380–$4,400 area and potentially set the stage for a new leg higher toward $4,500 by November.

Verdict: Hold with bullish bias — support $4,050–$4,100, resistance $4,200–$4,380, long-term target $5,000+

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