Henry Hub Slides Below $2.87 With a Summer Glut in Control — LNG Growth Toward 20 Bcf/d Is the Winter Counterweight

Natural gas futures opened near $2.872 on Monday, sitting at a two-month low and carrying a technical signal flashing a strong sell — the front-month grinding lower under the weight of a summer glut that has overwhelmed the structural bull case. The Henry Hub contract has fallen below $2.87 per million British thermal units, weighed down by rising output, the prospect of softer demand, and reduced export flows, and it now trades well beneath the levels that the official forecasts see as the year's average. The tape is bearish, and the fundamentals behind it are stacked against the price.

The setup is a market drowning in its own supply. Record production, storage running above the five-year average, a fat weekly injection, maintenance at a major export facility dumping would-be export gas back into the domestic market, and cooler weather forecasts capping cooling demand have combined into a bearish confluence that has pushed the front-month to a two-month low. Each factor on its own would pressure the price; together they have produced a summer glut that the market cannot easily clear.

The technical structure reflects the fundamental weakness. The daily buy-sell signal reads strong sell, the price sits at a two-month low, and the momentum points lower. The contract has broken below the $2.87 area that had been holding, and the psychological $3.00 level now sits overhead as resistance the market has to reclaim to signal a bottom. The bears own the near-term tape, and the technicals confirm it.

The thesis for the contract is a summer glut fighting a winter-and-LNG demand story, with weather as the referee. On one side, the bearish summer fundamentals — 110.2 billion cubic feet per day of production, storage 6.6% above the five-year average, soft cooling demand — own the front-month and have driven it to $2.87. On the other side, the structural bull case — liquefied-natural-gas exports climbing toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, record power-sector demand, tighter balances heading into winter — builds a floor and points the price higher over the medium term. The near-term bears control the tape; the structural bulls control the horizon. The swing factor is weather and the weekly storage print, and at $2.87, the glut is winning the summer.

The Summer Glut: 110.2 Bcf/d of Record Production

The foundation of the bearish tape is record production, and the numbers keep climbing. Average gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 110.0 billion cubic feet per day in June — a record pace that keeps flooding the domestic market with supply. That relentless output growth is the primary force weighing on the price, because every incremental billion cubic feet per day of production that is not matched by demand ends up in storage, building the surplus that pressures the front-month.

The production growth has been led by the Permian region, where associated gas — the natural gas produced alongside crude oil — flows regardless of the gas price because it is a byproduct of oil drilling. That structural feature means Permian gas production does not respond to low gas prices the way a pure gas play would, keeping supply elevated even when the price falls. The record output is not a temporary surge; it is the result of the shale complex operating at full tilt, and it establishes the supply-side pressure that defines the summer glut.

The scale of the production is what makes the glut so persistent. At 110.2 billion cubic feet per day, Lower-48 output is running at levels that require enormous demand to absorb, and the summer season — outside of peak cooling periods — simply does not generate enough consumption to clear it. The gap between record supply and seasonal demand is what fills storage and pushes the price to two-month lows. The production is the constant; the demand is the variable, and in the summer the variable is not keeping up.

The record production is the structural bear case for the near term. As long as output runs at 110-plus billion cubic feet per day and demand stays seasonal, the market builds surplus and the price stays pressured. The production growth is a double-edged feature — it is the same abundance that underpins the LNG export boom and the long-term demand story, but in the short term it is the glut that has driven the front-month to $2.87. For the forecast, the 110.2 billion cubic feet per day of production is the weight pressing on the price, and it will not ease until either demand catches up or production finally responds to the low prices. At $2.87, the record output owns the tape.

Storage 6.6% Above the Five-Year Average

The visible manifestation of the summer glut is the storage picture, and it is comfortably oversupplied. U.S. working natural gas inventories ran 6.6% above their five-year seasonal average as of early July, a surplus that signals ample supply and limits any upward price pressure. High storage is the bearish tell that the market watches most closely, because it reflects the cumulative result of production outpacing demand — every week of surplus injection adds to the cushion and pushes the price lower.

The recent injections have deepened the surplus. In the week to July 10, 41 billion cubic feet of gas were added to domestic storage, a build sharply higher than expected that extended a run of larger-than-anticipated injections. Above-consensus storage builds are the most direct bearish catalyst for the front-month, because they confirm that the market is oversupplied and that the surplus is growing rather than shrinking. The 41-billion-cubic-foot injection was a clear signal that the glut was intensifying, and it contributed to the slide to the two-month low.

The forecast trajectory keeps the surplus in place through the injection season. The official outlook projects that working inventories will reach 3,966 billion cubic feet by the end of October, 5% above the five-year average — meaning the market is expected to head into winter with a comfortable cushion rather than a deficit. Entering the withdrawal season with above-average storage limits the upside price pressure, because the market has ample supply to draw down before any scarcity develops. The high storage is a bearish overhang that extends well beyond the summer.

The storage surplus is the scoreboard of the summer glut, and it reads bearish. Inventories 6.6% above the five-year average, larger-than-expected weekly injections, and a forecast for above-average storage into winter all point to a well-supplied market that lacks the tightness needed to lift the price. The storage picture is what translates the record production into the two-month low — the surplus is the physical evidence that supply is beating demand. For the forecast, the high storage is the bearish anchor that caps rallies and pressures the front-month, and it will take a sustained demand surge or a production pullback to work it off. At $2.87, the storage glut is the weight the bulls cannot lift.

Freeport Maintenance Dumps Gas Back Home

A specific, temporary factor has deepened the summer glut: maintenance at a major liquefied-natural-gas export facility. Scheduled maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas reduced export flows, and the gas that would have been liquefied and shipped abroad instead stayed in the domestic market, increasing the available domestic supply. That diversion is a direct bearish force, because it adds to the glut precisely when the market is already oversupplied.

The mechanism is straightforward and significant. LNG export facilities consume large volumes of natural gas, converting it to liquid form for shipment overseas — that consumption is a major source of demand that pulls gas out of the domestic market. When a facility like Freeport goes offline for maintenance, that demand disappears, and the gas that would have been exported backs up into domestic storage. The outage effectively converts export demand into domestic surplus, amplifying the bearish storage builds.

The Freeport maintenance was directly implicated in the outsized storage injections. The larger-than-expected builds, including the 41-billion-cubic-foot injection in the week to July 10, were consistent with the export outage preventing gas flows from being readied for shipment, increasing the supply available for domestic storage. The maintenance is a measurable contributor to the glut — remove the export demand, and the surplus grows faster. That connection between the facility outage and the storage builds is a key part of the bearish near-term picture.

The Freeport factor is important because it is temporary, which makes it a swing variable in both directions. While the maintenance persists, the export demand stays suppressed and the domestic glut deepens, pressuring the price. When the facility returns to full operation, the export demand resumes, pulling gas back out of the domestic market and tightening the balance — a bullish shift. The maintenance is thus a near-term bearish force that will reverse into a bullish one when it ends. For the forecast, the Freeport outage is part of why the price sits at a two-month low, and its resolution is one of the catalysts that could help the front-month recover. At $2.87, the export maintenance is dumping gas back home, and the glut is the result.

Cooler Weather Caps Cooling Demand

Weather is the single most important swing factor for summer natural gas demand, and the forecasts have turned bearish. Below-average temperatures are anticipated in the Southwest through July 23, and the cooler outlook limits cooling demand — the air-conditioning load that drives natural gas consumption in the power sector during the summer. When temperatures moderate, electricity demand falls, power plants burn less gas, and the demand side of the balance weakens, adding to the surplus.

The cooling-demand dynamic is central to the summer price. Natural gas is the primary fuel for peak summer electricity generation, and hot weather that drives air-conditioning use is the main source of incremental summer demand. A heatwave can tighten the balance and spike the price; a cool spell does the opposite, suppressing demand and deepening any glut. The forecast for below-average temperatures through July 23 removes the demand support that hot weather would provide, leaving the record production and high storage to dominate.

The renewable-energy dynamic compounds the demand weakness. Solar and wind power generation rose to near-record levels, displacing some of the natural gas that would otherwise be burned for electricity. When renewables generate more, they crowd out gas-fired generation, reducing gas demand in the power sector even when electricity demand itself is steady. The combination of cooler weather and rising renewable output is a double hit to summer gas demand, and it has contributed to the slide to the two-month low.

The weather is the referee that will decide the near-term direction. The current cool forecast is bearish, capping cooling demand and reinforcing the glut, but weather is inherently variable and can shift quickly. A heatwave later in the summer would revive cooling demand, tighten the balance, and lift the price, while continued mild weather would deepen the glut and pressure the front-month further. The forecast for below-average temperatures through July 23 is the near-term bearish signal, and any shift toward hotter weather is the catalyst that could help the price recover. For the forecast, weather is the swing factor that sits on top of the structural supply-demand picture — the glut is the backdrop, and the weather determines whether it deepens or eases. At $2.87, the cool forecast is capping demand, and the bears have the weather on their side.

The Weekly Storage Print Is the Catalyst

The most-watched recurring catalyst for natural gas is the weekly storage report, published every Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and it is the number that moves the front-month more than any other regular release. The report compares current inventory to the five-year average, and the market reads it as a real-time scorecard of the supply-demand balance: a surplus signals bearish conditions, while a deficit signals bullish ones. For a market defined by its storage glut, the weekly print is the key event.

The recent reports have been decisively bearish. The 41-billion-cubic-foot injection in the week to July 10 was sharply higher than expected, and it extended a run of larger-than-anticipated builds that confirmed the market was oversupplied. Each above-consensus injection reinforces the glut narrative and pressures the price, and the string of bearish storage reports is a primary reason the front-month has slid to a two-month low. The market has been getting weekly confirmation that supply is beating demand.

The upcoming Thursday report is the next catalyst that could move the price. The market will parse whether the injection continues at an elevated pace — confirming the glut and pressuring the price further — or whether it moderates, which would signal the balance is tightening and could support a recovery. With the Freeport maintenance suppressing export demand and the cool weather capping cooling demand, the expectation is for another substantial build, but any surprise in either direction would move the front-month sharply. The storage print is the weekly referendum on the glut.

The settlement calendar adds a near-term technical factor. The next natural gas futures settlement falls on July 29, and as the front-month approaches expiration, positioning around the roll can add volatility independent of the fundamentals. The combination of the weekly storage reports and the settlement schedule creates a rhythm of catalysts that punctuate the summer glut, each one a potential trigger for a move. For the forecast, the weekly storage print is the recurring catalyst that either confirms or challenges the bearish tape, and the Thursday report is the next test. At $2.87, the market is watching the storage builds, and each bearish print deepens the glut. The number that matters most for natural gas arrives every Thursday, and lately it has been bearish.

The Technical Picture: Strong Sell

The technical structure confirms the fundamental weakness, and the signal is unambiguous. The daily buy-sell reading based on technical indicators and moving averages flashes a strong sell, the most bearish technical designation, reflecting a market where the price sits below its key moving averages and the momentum points lower. The front-month opened near $2.872 at a two-month low, and the technical picture offers no support for a bounce — the indicators are aligned to the downside.

The price action reinforces the bearish read. The contract has broken below the $2.87 area that had been providing support, printing a fresh two-month low and confirming the downtrend that the summer glut has driven. Once a support level breaks, it often becomes resistance, meaning the $2.87 zone that failed to hold now sits as a level the price has to reclaim to signal any stabilization. Below it, the market is in fresh territory for the two-month window, with limited technical support until lower levels.

The overhead resistance frames the recovery challenge. The psychological $3.00 level sits above the current price as the first meaningful hurdle — reclaiming and holding $3.00 would be the first technical sign that the summer bottom was in and the bearish momentum had stalled. Until the front-month can climb back above $3.00, the technical structure stays bearish, and the strong-sell signal remains in force. The distance from $2.87 to $3.00 is not large, but the fundamental glut makes clearing it difficult without a demand catalyst.

The technical picture and the fundamental picture point the same direction, which is what gives the bearish tape its conviction. The strong-sell signal, the two-month low, and the break below $2.87 all confirm the downtrend that the record production, high storage, Freeport maintenance, and cool weather have created. The technicals are not diverging from the fundamentals — they are amplifying them. For the forecast, the strong-sell signal is the confirmation that the near-term momentum is bearish, and the market needs a fundamental catalyst — hotter weather, the Freeport return, a tighter storage print — to flip the technicals. At $2.87, the chart and the fundamentals agree: the path of least resistance is lower until something changes. The summer glut owns both the tape and the technicals.

The Gap Between $3.60 and $2.87

A striking feature of the current market is the gap between where natural gas trades and where the official forecasts see it averaging. The federal energy agency's outlook expects the Henry Hub spot price to average close to $3.60 to $3.70 per million British thermal units over 2026, with the fourth quarter of 2026 projected to average $3.57 — levels well above the current two-month low near $2.87. The spot price sits roughly 70 to 80 cents below the year's projected average, a gap that reflects the depth of the summer glut.

The gap is a function of seasonality and the temporary factors weighing on the summer. The $3.60 average forecast blends the low summer prices with higher winter prices, and the current $2.87 reflects the seasonal trough — the point in the year when demand is weakest relative to the record production. The forecast implies that the price is expected to recover from the summer lows toward and above the average as winter approaches and heating demand, LNG exports, and tighter balances lift the front-month. The gap is the market pricing the seasonal weakness that the annual average smooths over.

The official outlook attributes the moderate downward pressure to record production. The agency's forecast explicitly cites record U.S. natural gas production helping to meet rising demand, putting moderate downward pressure on prices — the same dynamic driving the summer glut. But the forecast also sees inventories remaining above the five-year average through much of the outlook period, which limits the upward pressure even as the price is expected to recover toward the average. The $3.60 forecast is a balance of record supply and rising demand, with the current $2.87 sitting at the low end of that balance.

The gap between $3.60 and $2.87 frames the mean-reversion case for the bulls. If the official forecast is correct and the price averages $3.60 for the year, the current $2.87 represents a summer trough that should recover as the seasonal demand returns — a roughly 25% upside from spot to the annual average. The bulls point to that gap as evidence the current price is a seasonal low, not a durable level. The bears counter that the record production and high storage could keep the price suppressed below the forecast if demand disappoints. For the forecast, the $3.60-versus-$2.87 gap is the tension between the seasonal trough and the annual average, and the resolution depends on whether the winter demand and LNG growth materialize as projected. At $2.87, the market is trading well below where the forecasts see it heading.

The LNG Export Engine Toward 20 Bcf/d

The structural bull case for natural gas runs through liquefied-natural-gas exports, and the growth trajectory is substantial. U.S. LNG export capacity has climbed to around 17 billion cubic feet per day and is rising toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, driven by new terminals coming online. That growth is the most important demand-side development for the domestic market, because every billion cubic feet per day of LNG export capacity pulls gas out of the domestic supply and ships it abroad, tightening the balance and supporting the price.

The new capacity is concrete and coming. Major new terminals — including facilities at Plaquemines and Golden Pass — are adding export capacity that will consume increasing volumes of domestic gas, and the ratings-agency and bank forecasts cite these additions as the reason for tighter market balances ahead. As the new terminals ramp, they create structural demand that competes with domestic consumption for the available supply, and that competition is what supports Henry Hub prices over the medium term. The LNG engine is the counterweight to the record production.

The mechanism transforms the domestic market. High global LNG demand — driven by Europe replacing Russian pipeline gas and Asian power generation — pulls gas away from the domestic market and supports Henry Hub futures prices. As U.S. export capacity climbs toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, a growing share of domestic production is destined for export rather than domestic use, which tightens the domestic balance and raises the floor under the price. The structural floor has risen permanently — with LNG at 17 billion cubic feet per day and climbing, sub-$2 prices are an increasingly historical anomaly.

The LNG export engine is the reason the bull case survives the summer glut. The current oversupply is a seasonal and temporary condition — record production meeting weak summer demand — but the structural trajectory is toward tighter balances as LNG exports grow. The Freeport maintenance that is currently deepening the glut is a reminder of how much export demand matters: when that facility and others run at full capacity, they pull enormous volumes out of the domestic market. As the export capacity climbs toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, the domestic market tightens structurally, and the price floor rises. For the forecast, the LNG export engine is the medium-term bull case that counters the near-term glut, and it is why the forecasts see prices recovering toward $3.60 and beyond. At $2.87, the summer glut owns the tape, but the LNG engine owns the horizon.

Record Power-Sector Demand and Data Centers

The second pillar of the structural bull case is domestic demand growth, led by the power sector. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector is forecast to increase in 2026 and 2027, reaching a record next year — average consumption in the sector rising 2% in 2026 and another 4% in 2027 to 38.1 billion cubic feet per day. On a monthly basis, power-sector consumption is projected to reach 50.6 billion cubic feet per day in peak summer 2027, a level that would strain the supply-demand balance. The power sector is the largest and fastest-growing source of domestic gas demand.

The demand growth is driven by a structural shift in electricity consumption. Natural gas remains the primary fuel for baseload and peaking electricity generation, and as total electricity demand rises, gas consumption in the power sector rises with it. The growth reflects both the retirement of coal plants — with gas filling the gap — and the increase in overall electricity demand from economic growth and electrification. The record power-sector consumption is the demand engine that, alongside LNG exports, tightens the domestic balance over time.

The data-center dynamic is the wildcard that could accelerate the demand growth. The explosive growth in artificial-intelligence computing has driven a surge in electricity demand from data centers, and much of that incremental power is generated by natural gas. As data-center power needs outpace supply growth, the demand for gas-fired electricity rises, and some forecasters project that dynamic driving prices meaningfully higher over the medium term. The data-center demand is a structural tailwind that was not fully appreciated even a year ago, and it adds a new source of gas consumption that could tighten the balance faster than the base forecasts assume.

The record power-sector demand and the data-center growth are the demand-side complement to the LNG export engine. Together, they represent the structural bull case — domestic consumption and export demand both rising, competing for a supply that, while at record levels, faces the risk of insufficient growth to meet both. The power-sector consumption reaching 38.1 billion cubic feet per day, with data centers adding incremental demand, is the story that tightens the balance into 2027 and supports the higher price forecasts. For the forecast, the record power-sector demand is the medium-term bull case that counters the summer glut, and the data-center dynamic is the wildcard that could amplify it. At $2.87, the demand growth is a horizon story, but it is the reason the structural floor has risen and the forecasts point higher.

The Bull Case: $4-$5 Into Winter

The forecasts from the institutional desks lay out the bull case, and the targets sit well above the current price. One ratings agency forecasts Henry Hub at $4.10 per million British thermal units for 2026, citing tighter market balances from the LNG capacity additions offsetting flat production, with sustained European and Asian demand providing a floor. One major bank projects $4.15, and another bank's model points above $5 under normal winter conditions — with a cold snap capable of amplifying that upside significantly. These targets, ranging from the low $4s to above $5, reflect the structural tightening that the LNG and demand growth are expected to produce.

The supply-side argument underpins the bull case. One bank notes that production has been trending lower from its late-2025 peaks, with declines in the Haynesville basin and insufficient rig-count increases leaving little spare capacity as LNG demand approaches 20 billion cubic feet per day. That view — that production is not growing fast enough to meet the combined pull of LNG exports and domestic demand — is the crux of the bull case. If production plateaus while demand climbs, the balance tightens and the price rises, potentially sharply if a cold winter adds heating demand on top.

The winter weather is the amplifier. The bull-case forecasts hinge on normal-to-cold winter conditions driving heating demand, and one bank's model shows that normal winter conditions alone are sufficient to push prices above $5, with a cold snap amplifying the upside significantly. Winter is when natural gas demand peaks — heating load is the largest seasonal driver — and a cold winter drawing down the storage surplus faster than expected would tighten the balance dramatically. The winter weather is the catalyst that could translate the structural tightening into a price spike.

The structural floor has risen, which limits the downside even in the glut. With LNG exports at 17 billion cubic feet per day and climbing, the days of sub-$2 gas are an increasingly historical anomaly — the export demand puts a floor under the price that did not exist before the LNG boom. That rising floor is why the bull case sees the current $2.87 as a summer trough rather than a durable level, and why the forecasts cluster in the $4-$5 range for the medium term. For the forecast, the bull case is the structural counterweight to the summer glut — tighter balances, rising demand, a higher floor, and the winter weather as the catalyst. At $2.87, the front-month sits far below the bull-case targets, and the gap is the upside if the LNG growth, the demand, and the winter weather deliver.

The Middle East Wildcard

A geopolitical factor adds a twist to the natural gas picture, and it cuts differently for the U.S. than for the rest of the world. The Iran-U.S. conflict has led to a blockade of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf, limiting liquefied-natural-gas flows to major European and Asian consumers. That disruption tightens the global LNG market and lifts international gas benchmarks, but the U.S. market has been shielded by its ample domestic supply — a divergence that has kept Henry Hub weak even as global prices firm.

The divergence is instructive. The blockade of Persian Gulf tankers restricts the LNG that flows to Europe and Asia, tightening those markets and supporting their benchmark prices. But the U.S. is a net exporter with record domestic production and high storage, so the global tightness does not translate into domestic scarcity — instead, the U.S. glut persists because the domestic supply is more than sufficient to meet domestic demand. The ample domestic supply shielded the U.S. from the export pressures emanating from the Middle East, and the front-month fell to a two-month low even as global benchmarks rose.

The Middle East dynamic is a potential bullish catalyst for U.S. gas over the medium term, however. If global LNG markets stay tight because of the Persian Gulf disruption, the demand for U.S. LNG exports increases — buyers in Europe and Asia turn to American cargoes to replace the restricted Gulf supply. That incremental export demand would pull more gas out of the U.S. domestic market, tightening the domestic balance and supporting Henry Hub prices. The conflict that is currently weakening domestic gas through the supply-shield dynamic could strengthen it through the export-demand dynamic as the LNG capacity grows.

The Middle East wildcard illustrates the tension between the U.S. domestic glut and the tightening global market. In the near term, the ample U.S. supply insulates Henry Hub from the global disruption, keeping the front-month at $2.87 while international benchmarks rise. Over the medium term, the global tightness could boost U.S. LNG export demand, pulling the domestic market tighter and lifting the price toward the bull-case targets. For the forecast, the Middle East conflict is a wildcard that is currently neutral-to-bearish for U.S. gas but structurally bullish as the export engine grows. At $2.87, the domestic glut is shielding the U.S. from the global tightness, but the divergence contains a bullish seed for the medium term.

The Forecast: Summer Glut vs Winter Demand, Weather the Referee

Pulling the forces together produces a clear framework, and the scenarios define the paths. The base case is continued weakness through the summer, with the front-month grinding in a range near the two-month low. With record production at 110.2 billion cubic feet per day, storage 6.6% above the five-year average, the Freeport maintenance suppressing export demand, and cool weather capping cooling load, the highest-probability near-term outcome is more of the same — the glut keeping the price pinned in the $2.80-$3.00 zone, with the strong-sell signal and the weekly storage builds reinforcing the bearish tape.

The bull case requires the structural forces and the winter weather to assert. As the Freeport facility returns to full operation, the LNG export capacity climbs toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, and the heating season approaches, the balance tightens and the price recovers toward the official $3.60 average forecast and the institutional targets in the $4-$5 range. A normal-to-cold winter would draw down the storage surplus and could push prices above $5, with a cold snap amplifying the upside. The structural demand growth — record power-sector consumption of 38.1 billion cubic feet per day, plus data centers — is the medium-term tailwind, and the winter weather is the catalyst.

The bear case is a continuation of the glut. If production stays at record levels, the weather stays mild, the Freeport maintenance extends, and the storage builds keep coming in above expectations, the front-month breaks below $2.87 and works lower — the surplus overwhelming the structural demand story and keeping the price at the low end of the range or beneath it. The renewable-energy displacement of gas in the power sector and the above-average storage heading into winter are the forces that would drive this path, and the strong-sell technical signal confirms the near-term risk is to the downside.

The thesis holds across all three paths: natural gas is a summer glut fighting a winter-and-LNG demand story, with weather as the referee. The near-term tape is owned by the bears — record 110.2 billion cubic feet per day of production, storage 6.6% above the five-year average, a 41-billion-cubic-foot injection, Freeport maintenance dumping export gas back home, and cool weather capping demand have driven the front-month to a two-month low near $2.87 with a strong-sell signal. But the horizon is owned by the bulls — LNG exports climbing toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, record power-sector and data-center demand, and tighter winter balances build a rising floor and point toward the $3.60 average forecast and the $4-$5 institutional targets. The gap between the $2.87 spot and the $3.60 forecast is the seasonal trough versus the annual average, and the resolution depends on the swing factor: weather. A hotter summer or a cold winter tightens the balance and lifts the price; continued mild weather and record production deepen the glut. At $2.87, the summer glut is winning, but the structural demand is building, and the weekly storage print and the weather forecasts are the referees that will decide when the winter-and-LNG story finally overtakes the summer surplus.