IBIT ETF ($44) Holds as $98.14B Category Logs First Negative Month Since July — FBTC and ARKB Lead the Exit While BlackRock Keeps Buying

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust traded at about $44.00 on Monday, November 2, up 1.5% from Friday’s close of $43.36, inside a session range of $43.86 to $44.14. The bounce tracked Bitcoin, which traded between $77,700 and $78,200 after holding its October 30 low. IBIT’s net asset value stood at $43.28 as of Friday’s close, after a 5.31% one-day drop, and its net assets totaled $62.30 billion.

Monday’s ETF flow data will not post until after the U.S. close. The numbers that frame this week come from Friday, and they were the worst in four months. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in net outflows on October 30, their largest single-day exit since June 25. IBIT lost $233.7 million and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $201.0 million. The selling came the day after the $6.36 billion Binance hack, the largest crypto theft on record.

That single day reshaped the month. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finished October with $515 million in net outflows, their first negative month after inflows of $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September. The week of October 26 to 30 ended $202.6 million in the red despite four straight days of inflows, because Friday’s exit wiped them out.

The detail inside the totals tells a more nuanced story. IBIT took in $177 million over the week, the most of any fund, even after its Friday outflow. The selling was concentrated elsewhere: FBTC lost $166 million for the week and ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB lost $130 million. Institutional money is consolidating into the largest fund rather than leaving the category wholesale.

The thesis is clear. The ETF bid has weakened but not broken. Friday’s outflow was a sentiment shock tied to the Binance hack, equal to less than 1% of category assets, and spot ETF holders have no direct exposure to Binance because their Bitcoin sits with regulated custodians. The base case is mixed flows through Friday’s U.S. jobs report, with IBIT trading between $43.10 and $45.79, equivalent to Bitcoin between its October 30 low of $76,141 and $80,900. A daily close above $45.79 would put IBIT back toward its holders’ cost basis and target $47.95. A close below $43.10 would mean Bitcoin has broken its October low and open $41.35.

Friday’s $643 Million Exit: The Largest Daily Outflow Since June and the Second Big Hit in Eight Days

The October 30 session was the defining flow event of the autumn. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $643.3 million in net outflows, ending a four-session inflow streak. Five of the 12 funds recorded outflows: IBIT at $233.7 million, FBTC at $201.0 million, ARKB at $129.6 million, Grayscale’s GBTC at $53.3 million and Bitwise’s BITB at $25.7 million. The other seven funds recorded no flows.

The size put it in rare company. It was the largest daily outflow since June 25 and narrowly beat the $635.5 million outflow of October 22, meaning the two worst ETF days of the autumn came just eight days apart. Across the full history of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the record daily outflow stands at roughly $1.1 billion, and the record daily inflow at roughly $1.37 billion.

The timing explains the trigger. The Binance hack began at 20:05 UTC on October 29, after the U.S. market close. Friday was the first full U.S. session after the theft. Bitcoin fell 5% on the hack news and touched $76,141, its lowest level in weeks. ETF holders reduced exposure as the market absorbed the news, alongside a broad technology selloff that sent the Nasdaq down 2.86% that day.

Market analysts described the move as de-risking rather than capitulation. One chief analyst called the outflows more of a sentiment shock, noting that spot ETF holders have no direct exposure to Binance because the underlying Bitcoin is held with regulated custodians. A head of markets at a derivatives analytics firm pointed out that the $643 million outflow was still under 1% of spot Bitcoin ETF assets, describing it as a de-risking day and not a loss in institutional confidence.

The scale supports that reading. With total net assets of $98.14 billion, a $643 million outflow equals 0.66% of the category. By comparison, Binance recorded roughly $3.64 billion in net outflows in the first nine and a half hours after it began restoring withdrawals on Sunday, and $4.7 billion by Monday morning, still under 3% of its assets. The ETF outflow was small relative to the exchange-level movement of capital.

For the forecast, Friday’s outflow matters more for what follows than for its size. A one-day sentiment shock followed by stabilizing flows would confirm the de-risking interpretation and support IBIT near current levels. A second large outflow day this week would suggest that institutional holders are reducing exposure more broadly.

The Weekly Picture: Four Inflow Days Erased by One Outflow Day

The week of October 26 to 30 shows how quickly ETF sentiment can turn. The first four sessions all brought inflows. Monday added $110.3 million. Tuesday added $176.0 million. Wednesday added $137.3 million. Thursday, the day of the hack, added $17.1 million, a sharp slowdown but still positive. That sequence totaled roughly $440 million in four days.

Friday’s $643.3 million exit erased all of it and more, leaving the week at a net outflow of $202.6 million.

The fund-level breakdown matters. IBIT took in $110.3 million on Monday, $151.5 million on Tuesday, $136.0 million on Wednesday and $12.8 million on Thursday, then lost $233.7 million on Friday. That left IBIT with a weekly net inflow of $177 million, the largest of any fund, and brought its cumulative net inflows since launch to $66.31 billion.

The outflows sat elsewhere. FBTC recorded the largest weekly net outflow at $166 million, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $10.17 billion. ARKB lost $130 million for the week, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $964 million. Those two funds alone account for $296 million in weekly outflows, more than the category’s entire $202.6 million net loss.

The pattern has repeated through the autumn. IBIT’s daily flows over the past 15 sessions show that pattern clearly: a run of small outflows in early-to-mid October, a $665.2 million inflow on October 19, steady inflows on October 20 and 21, outflows of $254.1 million and $110.3 million on October 22 and 23, then four straight days of inflows before Friday’s exit. IBIT tends to recover faster than its peers after selloffs.

The October 19 inflow was a signal. IBIT took in $665.16 million that day, its largest daily inflow in a year, with Bitcoin trading in an $82,000 to $83,000 consolidation zone. The category took in $526.6 million that day, meaning IBIT’s inflow exceeded the total, with outflows from Fidelity and Grayscale partly offsetting it. One analyst noted that Bitcoin had remained range-bound while other risk assets traded near record highs, making current levels relatively attractive to institutional buyers.

For the forecast, the weekly pattern argues for resilience in IBIT specifically. The largest fund continues to attract money on dips, while smaller funds bear most of the redemptions. That concentration supports IBIT’s share price relative to the category.

October’s First Negative Month: A $515 Million Outflow After $6.1 Billion in August and September

October marked a turning point in the 2026 flow trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $515 million in net outflows for the month, the first negative month after strong inflows through the late summer. August brought $3.5 billion in net inflows and September $2.6 billion, a combined $6.1 billion over two months.

The reversal followed Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin lost 7.3% in October. It entered the month near $84,000 and ended near $77,750, with the October 30 low at $76,141. ETF flows tend to follow price momentum: inflows accelerate in rallies and slow or reverse in declines. October’s decline produced the expected flow response.

Most of the damage came in two days. The October 22 outflow of $635.5 million and the October 30 outflow of $643.3 million together total $1.28 billion. Without those two sessions, October flows would have been positive by roughly $760 million. The month’s weakness was concentrated rather than broad.

IBIT held up better than the category. Despite the category’s $515 million October outflow, IBIT posted roughly $932 million in net inflows for the month. That means the rest of the category lost roughly $1.45 billion in October while IBIT gained.

The broader 2026 picture is weaker. Some analysts estimate that most of the category’s 2026 inflows have been reversed by the late-October outflows. The H1 data for IBIT shows the scale of the two-way traffic: in the first six months of 2026, IBIT took in $9.36 billion in Bitcoin for shares issued and paid out $5.49 billion for shares redeemed, a net creation of $3.87 billion. Over the same period, the fund’s net assets fell sharply from Bitcoin’s price decline, with a $22.18 billion decrease from operations.

Cumulative flows remain large. The category has taken in $56.98 billion in net inflows since launch in January 2024, though that includes $28.05 billion in outflows from GBTC, which converted from a closed-end trust with higher fees. Excluding GBTC, the other funds have taken in roughly $85 billion.

For the forecast, October’s negative month is a warning, not a collapse. A second negative month in November would confirm that institutional demand has shifted. A return to inflows would mark October as a temporary pause tied to the Binance hack and the AI selloff.

IBIT’s Dominance: $62.30 Billion in Assets, 811,115 Bitcoin and 63% of the Category

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is the center of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market. As of October 30, IBIT held net assets of $62.30 billion, about 63% of the category’s $98.14 billion total. Its cumulative net inflows of $66.31 billion account for more than the entire category’s $56.98 billion net total, because GBTC’s outflows offset inflows elsewhere.

IBIT’s Bitcoin holdings have grown through the decline. The fund held about 811,115 Bitcoin as of October 21, worth $67.7 billion at that time. That compares with 770,792 Bitcoin at the end of 2025 and 734,261 Bitcoin at the end of June 2026. After drawing down in the first half of the year, IBIT added roughly 77,000 Bitcoin in the third quarter and October as inflows returned.

The share count confirms the growth. IBIT had 1,358,680,000 shares outstanding at the end of 2025, 1,382,480,000 at the end of March, 1,414,960,000 at the end of September and 1,439,480,000 as of October 30. Shares outstanding rise when authorized participants create new shares by delivering Bitcoin to the fund, so a rising share count signals net inflows.

The cost basis tells a harsher story. IBIT’s Bitcoin had a cost of $64.70 billion at the end of 2025 against a fair value of $67.42 billion, a small gain. By the end of June, the cost had fallen to $61.00 billion against a fair value of $43.40 billion, a paper loss of $17.6 billion, after Bitcoin’s first-half decline. Bitcoin has recovered partly since June, but the fund’s holders remain underwater in aggregate.

IBIT’s role extends beyond its own flows. With one fund holding around 62% to 63% of category assets and often capturing more than half of daily flows, IBIT’s daily numbers function as shorthand for institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin. A large IBIT inflow day typically coincides with Bitcoin strength.

BlackRock continues to expand around IBIT. On October 19, the firm filed with the SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF, which would seek upside exposure to IBIT up to an approximate limit while providing a level of downside protection. A structured product built on IBIT would broaden the fund’s appeal to advisers and institutions that want Bitcoin exposure with defined risk.

For the forecast, IBIT’s dominance means its flows set the tone for the category. A week of IBIT inflows would support Bitcoin and the category even if smaller funds continue to see redemptions.

FBTC, ARKB and GBTC: Where the Outflows Are Concentrated

The outflows are hitting specific funds harder than others, and the pattern says something about who is selling.

Fidelity’s FBTC is the second-largest fund and the largest source of outflows last week. It lost $166 million in the week of October 26 to 30, including $201.0 million on Friday alone. FBTC’s cumulative net inflows stand at $10.17 billion. Fidelity’s fund is self-custodied, meaning Fidelity holds the Bitcoin directly rather than using a third-party custodian, and it carries a fee of 0.25%, the same as IBIT.

ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB lost $130 million for the week, including $129.6 million on Friday. Its cumulative net inflows stand at $964 million, the lowest of the major funds after a series of large redemptions. ARKB charges 0.21%.

Grayscale’s GBTC continues to bleed. It lost $53.3 million on Friday. Its cumulative net flows stand at negative $28.05 billion, reflecting the steady exit of investors since it converted from a closed-end trust in January 2024. GBTC charges 1.50%, by far the highest fee in the category. Grayscale’s lower-fee Bitcoin Mini Trust, which charges 0.15%, has taken in $2.93 billion cumulatively.

Bitwise’s BITB lost $25.7 million on Friday, with cumulative inflows of $2.01 billion. VanEck’s HODL holds $1.01 billion in cumulative inflows, Franklin’s EZBC $335 million and Invesco’s BTCO $136 million.

Morgan Stanley’s MSBT is the newest major entrant. It charges 0.14%, the lowest fee in the category, and has taken in $810 million cumulatively.

The concentration in FBTC and ARKB suggests specific holder bases are reducing exposure. Funds with larger shares of hedge fund and tactical holders tend to see sharper redemptions during volatility, while funds with more adviser and long-term institutional money see steadier flows. IBIT’s ability to take in money during the same week that FBTC and ARKB lost it points to a difference in holder composition.

For the forecast, the outflow concentration limits the read-through to Bitcoin’s price. Redemptions from smaller funds force those funds to sell Bitcoin, but IBIT’s inflows partly offset that selling. The net effect on Bitcoin depends on the category total, which is why the $202.6 million weekly net outflow matters more than any single fund’s number.

The Binance Hack’s Effect on ETFs: A Sentiment Shock Without Direct Exposure

The October 29 Binance hack drove Friday’s outflow, but its effect on ETFs is indirect. An attacker drained $6.36 billion from Binance hot wallets across ten blockchains in about 20 minutes. Bitcoin losses totaled 18,270 Bitcoin, valued at about $1.5 billion. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor group on October 31.

ETF holders were not affected directly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold their Bitcoin with regulated custodians, not on exchanges. None of IBIT’s, FBTC’s or any other fund’s Bitcoin was at risk in the Binance breach. The outflow reflected a broader reduction in crypto exposure rather than a concern about the funds themselves.

The hack’s market effects reached ETFs through price. Bitcoin fell 5% on the hack news, Ether 6% and BNB 10%. ETF holders who track Bitcoin’s price and use it to set position sizes reduced exposure when the price fell. Some tactical holders also sold to avoid the uncertainty of a potential exchange crisis spreading.

The stolen Bitcoin represents a potential supply overhang. The attacker holds roughly 18,270 Bitcoin, worth about $1.42 billion at current prices. North Korean groups have historically laundered stolen Bitcoin slowly through mixers and over-the-counter channels. The hacker has already converted other stolen assets, including roughly $46 million in Solana, into Bitcoin, which slightly increases rather than decreases Bitcoin holdings in the attacker’s hands. A sale of the stolen Bitcoin would add selling pressure, but at roughly 1.4% of a day’s spot ETF assets, it would not overwhelm the market.

Binance’s response limited the systemic risk. The exchange said it would cover all losses from company funds and set aside more than $6.34 billion. It reported covering 95% of affected assets by November 1 and began resuming withdrawals in phases. Net outflows from Binance reached $4.7 billion by Monday morning, under 3% of its $166 billion in assets.

The ETF structure looks better after the hack. A regulated fund with institutional custody avoids exactly the type of hot-wallet compromise that hit Binance. Over time, the hack could strengthen the case for ETF ownership over direct exchange exposure, which would support inflows.

For the forecast, the hack’s effect on ETF flows is likely to fade. If no further exchange incidents follow and Binance completes its recovery, the sentiment shock should ease, and flows should return to tracking Bitcoin’s price and macro conditions.

The Price-Flow Link: $100 Million in Inflows and Roughly 53 Basis Points of Bitcoin Price

ETF flows and Bitcoin’s price move together, and research quantifies the link. One major bank’s research using daily data from the five largest U.S. spot Bitcoin funds found that every $100 million in net inflow correlates with a same-day Bitcoin price move of roughly 53 basis points, building to about 96 basis points over ten trading days.

That relationship helps size the October outflows. Friday’s $643.3 million outflow would correlate with a same-day Bitcoin decline of roughly 3.4%, and a ten-day effect of roughly 6.2%. Bitcoin’s actual Friday decline, including the hack and technology selloff, was in that range. October’s $515 million monthly outflow correlates with a roughly 5% effect over ten days, close to Bitcoin’s 7.3% monthly decline.

The causation runs both ways. Inflows push Bitcoin higher because authorized participants buy Bitcoin to create new shares. But rising prices also attract inflows, as momentum-driven investors add exposure. The relationship is strongest during sustained trends, when flows and price reinforce each other.

Single sessions mostly do not move the trend. A single day of large inflows or outflows has a measurable effect on that day’s price, but sustained flows over weeks drive the trend. A week of $500 million in daily inflows would push Bitcoin significantly higher; a single $643 million outflow day followed by stabilization would have a limited lasting effect.

The cost basis of ETF holders matters for the next move. The average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders sits between roughly $81,906 and $84,714, based on flow-weighted entry prices. At $77,750, Bitcoin trades 5% to 8% below that range, meaning the average ETF holder is underwater. Holders near breakeven often sell into rallies to exit without a loss, which would turn the $81,906 to $84,714 range into resistance.

The ETF net asset ratio provides context. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $98.14 billion, equal to 6.34% of Bitcoin’s total market value. That share has grown steadily since launch and makes ETF flows one of the largest single sources of marginal demand for Bitcoin.

For the forecast, the price-flow link means IBIT’s share price and the category’s flows will move together. A return to inflows of $100 million to $200 million per day would push Bitcoin toward $80,900 and IBIT toward $45.79. A second wave of outflows would push Bitcoin toward $73,059 and IBIT toward $41.35.

Strategy, Corporate Treasuries and Other Sources of Bitcoin Demand

ETFs are not the only institutional buyers. Corporate treasuries, led by Strategy, provide a separate source of demand that can offset ETF outflows.

Strategy disclosed the purchase of 811 Bitcoin for $65.5 million in the week of October 26 to November 1. Its total holdings reached 849,327 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,451, equal to about 4.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy holds more Bitcoin than IBIT, though its buying pace has slowed compared with earlier periods. Strategy also reported $20.9 billion in third-quarter operating income as its chief executive declared a Bitcoin bull market.

Strategy’s average cost of $75,451 sits just below the current price. At $77,750, Strategy holds a modest unrealized gain. A Bitcoin decline below $75,451 would put Strategy’s holdings underwater on average, a psychological level for corporate treasury holders and for investors who track Strategy as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy.

Other demand channels contribute. Ether ETFs, by contrast, lost a record $1.61 billion in October, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for 88% of the outflows. Solana ETFs posted their largest weekly outflow since launch at roughly $71 million in the week ended October 30. XRP ETFs bucked the trend with $18.83 million in October inflows, their seventh straight positive month. Bitcoin ETFs sit in the middle: weaker than in the summer but far more resilient than Ether funds.

Global exchange-traded products add another layer. European and Asian Bitcoin funds report flows separately from U.S. spot ETFs, and their direction has tended to track U.S. flows with a lag.

Long-term holders and miners shape the supply side. Miners sell a portion of newly mined Bitcoin to cover costs, and long-term holders tend to sell into rallies after extended gains. With Bitcoin well below its January 2026 highs, long-term holder selling has eased.

For the forecast, the combination of Strategy’s continued buying and IBIT’s relative resilience provides a floor under Bitcoin near $76,000. Strategy’s buying alone does not offset a large ETF outflow day, but over weeks, steady corporate accumulation and IBIT inflows can absorb the redemptions from smaller funds.

The Calendar: Monday’s Flows, the Midterms, Apple and Palantir, and Friday’s Payrolls

The week ahead is packed with catalysts that will drive ETF flows.

Monday’s flow data arrives first. The U.S. session closed with the Dow up more than 500 points and Bitcoin near $78,000. A positive Monday print would confirm that Friday was a one-day sentiment shock. A second outflow day would raise concern that the de-risking is continuing.

Apple and Palantir report after Monday’s close. Their results will shape technology sentiment, which has driven crypto flows through the autumn. Friday’s 2.86% Nasdaq drop on AI capex doubts coincided with the ETF outflow. A strong technology rebound would support risk appetite and crypto flows.

Tuesday brings the U.S. midterm elections. Prediction markets price Democratic control of the House at 93.3% and the Senate at 71%. Bitcoin historically fell sharply in prior midterm years: 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018 and 27% in 2022, though analysts disagree on whether those patterns apply in an ETF era. A Democratic Congress would likely slow comprehensive crypto market structure legislation, which has stalled in the Senate.

Wednesday and Thursday bring secondary data and the Bank of England’s expected hike. Thursday also brings weekly jobless claims.

Friday’s October jobs report is the key macro event. Consensus calls for 65,000 new jobs after September’s 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. A soft report would reduce the odds of a December Fed hike, currently priced between 70% and 85%, and support Bitcoin and ETF inflows. A strong report would lock in the hike, push Treasury yields toward 5% and pressure risk assets.

The longer calendar includes Nvidia’s earnings on November 17, a major test for the AI trade, and the Fed’s December decision. BlackRock’s Managed Protect ETF filing will move through SEC review over the coming months.

For the forecast, the jobs report is the swing factor. ETF flows through Thursday will reflect technology sentiment and the midterm outcome. Friday’s data will decide whether the week ends with inflows or a second straight weekly outflow.

The IBIT and Bitcoin Support Map: $43.10, $41.35 and the 52-Week Low

IBIT’s share price tracks Bitcoin closely, with each share representing about 0.000566 Bitcoin. That ratio allows IBIT levels to be mapped directly from Bitcoin levels.

The first support for IBIT is the $43.28 to $43.36 zone, Friday’s net asset value and closing price. It sits 1.5% below the current price. IBIT bounced from that zone on Monday.

The second and most important support is $43.10, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s October 30 low of $76,141. It sits 2.0% below the current price. A daily close below $43.10 would mean Bitcoin has broken its October low, confirming that Friday’s outflow was the start of a broader decline rather than a one-day shock. That level is the floor of the base case. Just above it, Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average near $76,459 translates to roughly $43.28 for IBIT.

Below that, Bitcoin’s support at $75,451, Strategy’s average cost, translates to roughly $42.70 for IBIT. A break below Strategy’s cost basis would be a psychological blow to corporate treasury holders.

The next major support is $41.35, corresponding to Bitcoin’s $73,059 support level, 6.0% below IBIT’s current price. One analyst has flagged $73,000 as critical support for Bitcoin in the post-midterm window.

The 52-week low for IBIT stands at $32.84, set during Bitcoin’s spring decline. That level corresponds to Bitcoin near $58,000. A return there would require a full-scale crypto bear market.

The probability distribution favors holding the first two levels. Bitcoin held $76,141 through the weekend and bounced Monday. A test of that low this week would require another large ETF outflow day or a soft macro shock. The $41.35 level would require sustained outflows over multiple sessions and a Bitcoin break below Strategy’s cost basis.

For risk management, $43.10 is the line. Above it, the base case is mixed flows with IBIT in a range. Below it on a daily close, the forecast shifts to $41.35.

The IBIT and Bitcoin Resistance Map: $44.60, $45.79 and the $47.95 Cost-Basis Ceiling

IBIT’s upside levels correspond to Bitcoin resistance levels that have capped rallies through October.

The first resistance is about $44.60, corresponding to Bitcoin’s $78,800 resistance. It sits 1.4% above IBIT’s current price. Bitcoin stalled near $78,800 on Monday and through parts of the weekend.

The second and primary target is $45.79, corresponding to the top of Bitcoin’s $79,200 to $80,900 resistance zone. It sits 4.1% above IBIT’s current price. A daily close above $45.79 would put Bitcoin above $80,900 and signal that the post-hack decline has fully reversed. That would require a return to ETF inflows of $200 million or more per day.

The third is the $46.36 to $47.95 zone, corresponding to Bitcoin’s $81,906 to $84,714 range, which marks the cost basis of the average U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holder. That zone sits 5.4% to 9.0% above IBIT’s current price. As Bitcoin approaches that range, ETF holders near breakeven are likely to sell, turning the cost basis into resistance. The October 19 inflow of $665 million came when Bitcoin traded between $82,000 and $83,000, inside that zone.

Above that, IBIT’s early-October levels near $47 to $48 correspond to Bitcoin near $84,000, where the month began. IBIT’s 52-week high of $61.39 corresponds to Bitcoin near $108,000, a level that would require a full bull-market recovery.

The sequencing is clear. IBIT needs a close above $44.60 to confirm the bounce, above $45.79 to reach the base-case ceiling and above $47.95 to clear the ETF holder cost basis. Each step requires stronger inflows than the last.

Bitcoin ETF Forecast and Verdict: Mixed Flows, IBIT Range $43.10 to $45.79, Target $47.95 on Inflows

The forecast rests on an ETF market that has wobbled but not broken. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on October 30, their largest daily outflow since June 25, and finished October with $515 million in net outflows, the first negative month after $6.1 billion in inflows across August and September. The week of October 26 to 30 ended $202.6 million in the red as one outflow day erased four inflow days. Total net assets stand at $98.14 billion, equal to 6.34% of Bitcoin’s market value, with cumulative net inflows of $56.98 billion.

Underneath the headline, IBIT held up. BlackRock’s fund took in $177 million last week, the most of any fund, and roughly $932 million in October despite the category’s net outflow. It holds about 811,115 Bitcoin and $62.30 billion in net assets, roughly 63% of the category. The outflows concentrated in FBTC, which lost $166 million, and ARKB, which lost $130 million. Analysts described Friday’s exit as a sentiment shock tied to the Binance hack, under 1% of category assets, with no direct exposure for ETF holders. Strategy continues to buy, adding 811 Bitcoin last week to reach 849,327 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,451.

The base case, with the highest probability through Friday’s U.S. jobs report, is mixed flows with IBIT trading between $43.10 and $45.79, equivalent to Bitcoin between $76,141 and $80,900. The floor is Bitcoin’s October 30 low. The ceiling is the top of Bitcoin’s near-term resistance zone.

The bull case targets $47.95 for IBIT, equivalent to Bitcoin at $84,714, the top of the ETF holder cost basis, a 9.0% gain from the current price. It needs a return to daily inflows above $200 million, a strong technology rebound after Apple and Palantir, and a soft jobs report. A daily close above $45.79 would confirm the move.

The bear case activates on a daily close below $43.10, meaning Bitcoin has broken its October low. That would likely coincide with another large outflow day and open $41.35, equivalent to Bitcoin at $73,059.

The asymmetry is balanced in the near term and favorable over a longer horizon. IBIT sits 2.0% above its floor and 4.1% below its primary target. Flows have been weak but concentrated, and the largest fund continues to attract money on dips. The holder cost basis between $81,906 and $84,714 will cap rallies until Bitcoin clears it.

The verdict is neutral with a constructive bias on IBIT: spot Bitcoin ETF flows stay mixed through Friday’s jobs report, IBIT trades $43.10 to $45.79 while the largest fund absorbs redemptions from smaller funds, a return to daily inflows above $200 million opens $47.95, and a daily close below $43.10 on renewed outflows shifts the target to $41.35.

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