XRP-USD ($1.2566) Coils in a 2-Cent Range as $293M of Unfreezable Stolen XRP Moves — Path to $1.366 Opens Above $1.28

XRP traded at $1.2566 on Monday, November 2, up 0.35% from Sunday’s close of $1.2522. The token has moved in one of its tightest ranges of the year, trading between $1.2423 and $1.2566 through the session, a span of just 1.4 cents. Over the past 24 hours, the range on major venues ran from $1.24 to $1.26 against a 14-day average true range of $0.05, which means the market is compressing rather than trending. XRP carries a market value of $79.2 billion on a circulating supply of 63.35 billion tokens out of a fixed maximum of 100 billion, ranking fifth among crypto assets.

The quiet price action masks a market under stress. XRP was the first asset stolen in the October 29 Binance hack, the largest crypto theft on record. Attackers drained 233.46 million XRP, worth $296 million, from five Binance wallets in four minutes. On Monday morning, the attacker moved the entire stolen balance out of its holding wallet into six new addresses, a development every XRP trader is now watching. At the same time, U.S. spot XRP ETFs closed October with $18.83 million in net inflows, their seventh straight positive month, making XRP the only major altcoin with consistent institutional buying through the October selloff.

That tension defines the forecast. XRP has the strongest institutional demand of any altcoin and the largest hack overhang relative to its own trading activity. The stolen XRP cannot be frozen by anyone, because XRP is the native asset of the XRP Ledger and has no issuer controls. The ETF bid provides a floor; the stolen supply provides a ceiling.

The thesis is clear. XRP’s base case is a range between $1.19 and $1.34 through Friday’s U.S. jobs report. The floor is the October 30 hack-driven low and the bottom of the post-hack recovery. The ceiling is the 50-day exponential moving average at $1.340, where the cluster of overhead moving averages begins. A daily close above the 200-day exponential moving average at $1.366 is the upside target and would mark the first technical repair since October 22. A daily close below $1.19 would invalidate the range and open the $1.00 to $0.98 zone.

The broader context sets the stakes. At $1.2566, XRP trades 65.7% below its all-time high of $3.661, set on July 18, 2025. Over the past 52 weeks, the token has ranged between $0.9886 and $2.5797. It is down 32% since the start of the year, 16% over the past month and 3.5% over the past week. The 2024 U.S. election rally that took XRP from $0.50 to $3.40 has been almost fully reversed on a percentage basis from the peak.

October’s Scorecard: Down 15.7% From $1.4847 and the Second Major Leg of a 2026 Decline

October delivered XRP its worst month since the spring. The token opened the month at $1.4847 on October 2 and closed October 31 at $1.2512, a decline of 15.7%. That move came after three positive months for the broader crypto market and wiped out most of XRP’s late-summer recovery from the $0.99 swing low.

The decline came in three stages. Through mid-October, XRP held in a range between $1.30 and $1.40, with a rally attempt on October 21 that pushed the token to an intraday high of $1.3986 and a close of $1.3647. That rally failed the next day. On October 22, XRP fell 4.15% to $1.3080, breaking below the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since August. The token then drifted between $1.29 and $1.33 for a week.

The Binance hack drove the third leg. On October 29, XRP opened at $1.3257 and fell 6.84% to close at $1.2348, its lowest close in 30 days, on 432 million tokens of volume, more than double the prior day. On October 30, XRP touched an intraday low of $1.2029 on some venues and $1.19 on others, the lowest level since the summer, before buyers stepped in and pushed it back to a $1.2559 close, up 1.71% on the day. The weekend held that recovery, with closes at $1.2512 on October 31 and $1.2506 on November 1.

The volume pattern explains the current setup. Hack-day volume reached 432 million tokens and the next day 392 million. Since then, volume has collapsed to 83 million to 104 million tokens per session, a fifth of the hack-day level. That collapse means forced sellers have exited and the market is waiting for a new catalyst.

The comparison with the broader market shows XRP’s relative position. Bitcoin lost 7.3% in October, and Ether lost 16.1%. XRP’s 15.7% decline put it in line with Ether as one of the weaker major assets, despite stronger ETF flows than either. The reason is the hack: XRP was hit first and hardest relative to its daily trading activity.

The yearly picture is harsher. XRP is down 32% year to date, a steeper decline than Bitcoin’s 11.5% or Ether’s 23%. At the token’s average acquisition price for current holders, roughly $1.48, about 60% of the circulating supply sits at a loss. That underwater supply creates selling pressure on every rally toward $1.40 to $1.50, as holders who bought higher look to exit near breakeven.

XRP Was Hit First: 233.46 Million Tokens Drained From Five Binance Wallets in Four Minutes

The largest crypto theft in history began on the XRP Ledger. Between 20:05 and 20:09 UTC on October 29, five Binance wallets sent 233.46 million XRP to a single attacker address, leaving each wallet with only its minimum reserve balance. The stolen XRP was worth $296 million at the time. Only after the XRP drain did the attacker move on to Ethereum, Bitcoin, Tron, Solana and five other networks, ultimately taking $6.36 billion across ten blockchains in roughly 20 minutes.

The FBI attributed the theft to North Korean state hackers, and blockchain investigators identified the group as TraderTraitor with high confidence. The evidence points to a compromise of Binance’s hot-wallet signing infrastructure, initially traced to a compromised engineer’s laptop, rather than a flaw in any of the blockchains involved. On the XRP Ledger, the funds left through ordinary signed transfers authorized by Binance’s own keys.

XRP’s price reacted immediately. The token dropped 3.3% in 24 hours after the breach and closed October 29 at its lowest level in 30 days. Across the broader market, Bitcoin fell 5% on the news, Ether dropped 6% and BNB tumbled 10%.

Binance’s response limited the damage to customers. The exchange said it would cover all losses from company funds and set aside more than $6.34 billion to do so. In its October 31 update, Binance stated that its XRP balances, along with Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, BNB, Solana, USDC, USD1, RLUSD and Zcash, were fully backed and reported 90% overall replenishment. Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday, and net outflows from the exchange reached $4.7 billion by Monday morning, under 3% of its $166 billion in assets.

The XRP-specific impact goes beyond the price drop. The theft put 233.46 million XRP, 0.37% of the circulating supply, into the hands of a hostile actor with every incentive to sell. Unlike stablecoins, which issuers can freeze, XRP can only be stopped if exchanges block deposits from the stolen addresses. That makes the stolen XRP a live overhang that will move on the attacker’s schedule, not the market’s.

The scale relative to trading activity matters most. At $1.2566, the stolen XRP is worth $293 million. XRP’s 24-hour trading volume on major venues runs between $560 million and $1.07 billion, depending on the data source. The stolen balance equals between a quarter and a half of a typical day’s turnover, a far larger share than the stolen Bitcoin represents for Bitcoin’s market. If sold quickly, it would overwhelm normal demand. If sold slowly, it would cap rallies for weeks.

Why No One Can Freeze XRP: Ripple Locked 40.5 Million RLUSD, but the Native Token Stays Free

The Binance theft exposed a structural difference between XRP and the stablecoins that live on the same ledger. Ripple, the issuer of the RLUSD dollar-backed stablecoin, froze the attacker’s wallet holding stolen RLUSD at 22:01 UTC on October 29, two hours after the theft. At that point, 40.5 million of the 88.5 million RLUSD stolen remained in the wallet; the attacker had already sold 48 million. Ripple also restricted RLUSD inside the compromised Binance hot wallet so that new deposits could not be swept.

Across the industry, stablecoin issuers froze $2.67 billion in stolen funds by 00:30 UTC on October 30, roughly $2.7 billion including a separate $30 million frozen by a security council on another network. Ripple, Tether, Circle and World Liberty Financial all acted. That response recovered the majority of the stablecoin portion of the theft.

None of it reached XRP. The XRP Ledger’s own documentation states that issuers can freeze the tokens they issue, but that this does not apply to XRP, and that no one can freeze XRP on the ledger. XRP has no central issuer with administrative control. That design is a core feature for decentralization advocates, but it means the 233.46 million stolen XRP sits beyond any recovery mechanism except tracing and exchange cooperation.

The stolen XRP stayed still for four days. Blockchain trackers confirmed the tokens remained unmoved in the attacker’s consolidation wallet through at least early Saturday. On Monday morning, that changed. The attacker moved all 233.46 million XRP, worth $293 million, into six new wallets. Two transfers of 40 million XRP each, worth $50.4 million apiece, were flagged within a minute of each other from the address labeled as the Binance hack wallet. On the same morning, $242 million in other stolen funds moved out through the Tron network.

The movement signals the start of the laundering phase. North Korean groups have historically split stolen funds across many wallets, then moved them through cross-chain bridges, decentralized exchanges and over-the-counter desks over weeks and months. Splitting the XRP into six wallets is the first step in that pattern. Exchanges are now watching the six addresses to block deposits, which forces the attacker to use less-monitored routes and slows any sale.

For the forecast, Monday’s movement is the most important near-term risk for XRP. A gradual sale over several weeks would add persistent selling pressure without crashing the price. A rapid sale through decentralized exchanges or less-monitored venues would push XRP toward its $1.19 low within days. Any sign that the stolen XRP has reached a major exchange will trigger an immediate reflexive sell-off.

The ETF Bid: $18.83 Million in October, a Seventh Straight Positive Month and $1.81 Billion Cumulative

The institutional channel has been XRP’s strongest support through the downturn. U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $18.83 million in net inflows in October, their seventh consecutive month of positive flows, bringing cumulative net inflows since launch to $1.81 billion. That record stands in sharp contrast with Ether ETFs, which lost a record $1.61 billion in October, and Bitcoin ETFs, which lost $515.9 million.

October’s inflows were modest by XRP’s own standards. September brought $121.40 million in net inflows and August $158.18 million. October’s total was down 84% from September and 87% from August. The institutional bid has slowed sharply, but it has not reversed.

The hack-day response was the most telling data point. On October 29, the day of the Binance theft, spot XRP ETFs pulled in $8.43 million, their largest single-day inflow of October and the best day since September 25. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ accounted for $5.57 million and the Bitwise XRP ETF added $2.86 million. Other products, including Canary Capital’s XRPC, recorded no flows. That inflow ended four straight sessions of outflows and came as XRP fell below $1.25.

On the same day, Ether, BNB, Solana and Tron ETFs recorded no inflows. Among altcoin ETFs, only XRP and Zcash products drew new money. Institutional investors bought XRP on the day it was stolen, a sign that ETF holders see the hack as an exchange problem rather than an XRP problem.

The streak has been tested. For the week ending October 16, spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in net outflows, ending a run of 13 straight weeks of inflows. A single $2.47 million withdrawal from Canary Capital’s XRPC drove most of that. The week ending October 30 returned to net inflows of 3.4 million XRP, worth $4.0 million. On Friday, October 30, the funds saw small outflows of 49,932 XRP, worth $62,400.

The fund-level picture shows concentration in two products. Franklin’s XRPZ has reached $524 million in cumulative inflows, the second XRP ETF to pass $500 million. Bitwise’s fund has also been a steady accumulator. Smaller funds have seen more volatile flows.

For the forecast, the ETF bid sets the floor. A product category that buys on the day of a $296 million theft of its underlying asset has a holder base that does not panic. That bid will not drive XRP higher on its own at October’s reduced pace, but it absorbs selling and limits how far the stolen supply can push the price.

ETF Holdings and AUM: 1.20 Billion XRP, $1.51 Billion in Assets and a $260 Million Price Hit

The ETF holdings show steady accumulation even as asset values fell. As of the October 30 close, the six U.S. spot XRP ETFs, XRPC, XRP, XRPZ, GXRP, TOXR and XRPR, held 1.18 billion XRP with $1.49 billion in net assets. Including the XRP held by the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, total ETF holdings reached 1.20 billion XRP and $1.51 billion in net assets.

That equals 1.20% of the fixed 100 billion XRP supply and roughly 1.9% of the 63.35 billion circulating supply. XRP ETFs hold a larger share of their underlying asset’s circulating supply than many observers expected at launch, a sign of sustained institutional interest.

The asset value has fallen even as holdings rose. On October 5, total ETF assets stood at $1.77 billion. By October 30, they had dropped to $1.51 billion, a decline of $260 million. Holdings rose from 1.19 billion XRP in mid-October to 1.20 billion by month-end, so the entire asset decline came from XRP’s price drop, not from redemptions.

That divergence is the clearest sign of ETF conviction. Holders added tokens through the selloff rather than selling. The same pattern held through September, when XRP traded between $1.31 and $1.53. ETF holders have now accumulated through three distinct price dips without a meaningful redemption wave.

The cumulative inflow figure frames the cost basis. With $1.81 billion in cumulative inflows and $1.51 billion in current net assets, ETF investors as a group are sitting on paper losses of roughly $300 million, a 17% drawdown. That is a smaller loss than Ether ETF holders face, and the absence of panic selling at that loss level suggests the holder base is long-term.

The risk is that ETF patience runs out. If XRP falls toward $1.00, ETF holders would face losses of more than 30% on average. A sustained break of the $1.19 low, particularly if driven by the stolen XRP hitting the market, could test whether the seven-month inflow streak can hold through an eighth month.

For the forecast, the 1.20 billion XRP in ETF custody is supply removed from the trading float. It does not trade, it does not sell into rallies and it grows on dips. Every month of positive inflows reduces the tradable supply available to absorb the stolen tokens. That structural absorption is why the forecast treats $1.19 as a defended floor rather than a temporary pause.

The Supply Map: 31.40 Billion in Escrow, a 1 Billion Monthly Unlock and 22.48 Billion on Exchanges

XRP’s supply structure is unique among major crypto assets, and it shapes the forecast. Of the fixed 100 billion XRP supply, 31.40 billion sits in escrow controlled by Ripple. Under the escrow schedule, 1 billion XRP unlocks on the first day of each month. On November 1, another 1 billion XRP was released, worth $1.25 billion at current prices. Ripple typically re-locks most of each monthly release into new escrow contracts and uses the remainder for operations and sales, but the monthly unlock is a predictable source of potential supply.

Exchange balances moved in the right direction last week. Publicly attributed exchange wallets held 22.48 billion XRP as of the October 31 snapshot, down 133.0 million XRP over the prior seven days. Falling exchange balances mean tokens are moving into self-custody or ETFs rather than sitting on exchanges ready to sell. The week before the hack, exchange balances had risen by 79.8 million XRP. The reversal after the hack is a mildly bullish sign.

The math of the stolen XRP against exchange supply is instructive. The 233.46 million stolen tokens equal 1% of the 22.48 billion XRP on exchanges. If the attacker successfully deposits and sells the full amount, it would roughly match two weeks of the recent exchange outflow. That is meaningful but not overwhelming in the context of total exchange liquidity.

The holder cost basis is the most important supply factor for the forecast. The realized price of XRP, the average price at which current tokens last moved, sits near $1.48. At $1.2566, roughly 60% of the circulating supply is held at a loss. Those underwater holders create layered selling pressure: each move toward $1.30, $1.40 and $1.48 brings holders closer to breakeven and increases the odds they sell.

RLUSD adds a separate dimension. Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin has a supply of $2.42 billion, down slightly from $2.45 billion in early October. RLUSD activity drives transaction volume on the XRP Ledger, and XRP serves as the ledger’s base asset for fees and reserves. Ripple expanded RLUSD’s reach in October through an integration with Cross River Bank for stablecoin payments on the XRP Ledger. Growth in RLUSD supports XRP Ledger usage, but the connection to XRP’s price is indirect.

For the forecast, the supply map argues for a capped recovery. The escrow schedule adds predictable supply each month, 60% of holders are underwater and the stolen XRP is now in motion. Falling exchange balances and growing ETF holdings work in the opposite direction, but not with enough force to drive a sustained breakout above $1.40 without an external catalyst.

Order Flow and Derivatives: A 0.7708 Taker Ratio, Price in the Lower Fifth of Its Bands

The derivatives and order-flow data show sellers still in control at the margin. On Binance futures, the taker buy/sell ratio stood at 0.7708 for the hour ending 07:00 UTC on November 2, with buy volume of 6.71 million and sell volume of 8.70 million. A ratio below 1 means aggressive sellers hitting bids outweigh aggressive buyers lifting offers. A reading near 0.77 shows meaningful net selling pressure even as the price holds steady.

Open interest is contracting. Futures traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones, which means leverage is leaving the market. Funding rates are neutral, with neither longs nor shorts paying a meaningful premium to hold positions. That combination, contracting open interest with neutral funding, describes a market that is deleveraging and waiting rather than building a directional bet.

The Bollinger Band position confirms the compression. XRP’s %B reading stood at 0.1342 on November 2, placing the price in the lower fifth of its band range. The lower Bollinger Band sits at $1.2323, just 3.4 cents below the current price, and the 20-day moving average, the band’s midline, sits at $1.2999. Price hugging the lower band with narrowing bands typically precedes a volatility expansion. The direction of that expansion is the question.

The short-term moving averages sit directly overhead. On Binance spot, XRP trades below all six tracked moving averages. The seven-day simple moving average and immediate resistance sit at $1.27, and the 12-period exponential moving average clusters near $1.28. That cluster, within 2.5 cents of the current price, will be the first test of any bounce.

The volatility setup favors a move soon. A 14-day average true range of $0.05 against a 24-hour range of just $0.02 means XRP is trading at 40% of its normal daily volatility. Compressions that extreme rarely last more than a few sessions. The most likely triggers are a move in the stolen XRP wallets, a Bitcoin break out of its $77,000 to $78,700 range, or a macro shock from Tuesday’s midterms or Friday’s jobs report.

For the forecast, order flow argues that the first move from the compression is more likely down than up. Net taker selling, price in the lower fifth of its bands and the stolen XRP in motion all point to a test of the $1.2323 lower band and potentially the $1.19 low before any sustained recovery. That test would be a buying opportunity if the ETF bid holds, and a breakdown signal if it does not.

Midterms, Macro and the Bitcoin Anchor: XRP’s Post-Election History and Friday’s Jobs Report

Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections carry specific historical baggage for XRP. In the periods after past midterm elections, XRP averaged a 6.8% decline in the following first quarter, a 20.1% gain in the second quarter and roughly zero over the first six months compounded. Bitcoin averaged 19.7%, 59.7% and 86.5% over the same windows. XRP has historically lagged Bitcoin badly after midterms.

The 2024 presidential election offers a contrasting precedent. After that vote, XRP rallied from $0.50 to $3.40, driven by expectations of friendlier crypto regulation and the resolution of Ripple’s long-running legal dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That catalyst was specific to XRP and is not repeatable in the same form. A 600% repeat from current levels would imply $8.82, a scenario with no fundamental support in the current market.

The current election setup is less favorable for crypto policy. Prediction-market pricing as of November 1 put Democratic odds of winning the House at 93.3% and the Senate at 71%. Comprehensive crypto market structure legislation has stalled in the Senate over disputes on stablecoin yield and conflict-of-interest provisions. A Democratic Congress would likely slow that legislation further, removing a potential catalyst for XRP specifically.

Historical November data is mixed. XRP’s average November return has been strongly positive, at 78.3%, but that average is skewed by a few extreme rallies. The median November return is a 9.1% decline. Averages tell you about tail events; medians tell you about the typical outcome, and the typical November has been negative.

Bitcoin remains the anchor. XRP traded flat on Monday while Bitcoin held near $77,749, and the two have moved in close correlation through the October decline. A Bitcoin break above $80,000 would likely lift XRP through its short-term moving average cluster at $1.27 to $1.30. A Bitcoin break below its October low of $76,141 would push XRP toward the $1.19 low.

The macro calendar adds two more tests. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 with two dissents in favor of a hike, and markets price a December hike at odds between 70% and 85%. Friday’s October jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus at 65,000 new jobs after September’s 29,000, will set the tone for risk assets into the weekend. A soft print would support crypto through lower rate expectations. A hot print above 120,000 would lock in the December hike and weigh on high-beta assets like XRP.

The Support Map: $1.2423, $1.2323, $1.19 to $1.20, the 50-Week Average, $1.00 and $0.9886

The XRP downside levels are layered closely near the current price, then spread wider below the October low.

The first support is $1.2423, Monday’s intraday low and the bottom of the current two-cent range. It sits 1.1% below the current price. A break below would end the compression and signal that sellers have taken control of the next move.

The second is the lower Bollinger Band at $1.2323, 1.9% below spot. This level has acted as dynamic support since the hack and coincides with the $1.23 area that most short-term analysis identifies as the line holders must defend. A daily close below $1.2323 would put XRP outside its bands, an oversold extreme that often precedes either a sharp bounce or an acceleration lower.

The third and most important is the $1.19 to $1.20 zone. That band includes the October 30 hack-driven intraday low of $1.19 on some venues and $1.2029 on others. It marks the point where forced selling ran out and ETF buyers absorbed supply. A daily close below $1.19 would invalidate the range thesis and mean that sellers have found fresh supply beyond the hack panic, most likely the stolen XRP reaching the market. It sits 5.3% below the current price.

Below that, the weekly 50-week moving average marks the major medium-term support. Holding that average keeps the broader structure intact; breaking it opens the deeper downside.

The $1.00 level is the psychological floor, 20.4% below spot. It aligns with the summer swing low near $0.99, the point from which XRP’s August-to-October recovery began. The 52-week low of $0.9886 sits just below, and the $0.98 level has been named as the downside target if the weekly support breaks.

The probability distribution is skewed toward testing the first two levels. Net taker selling, price in the lower fifth of its bands and the stolen XRP in motion make a test of $1.2323 likely this week. The $1.19 floor requires a larger shock: a rapid sale of the stolen XRP, a Bitcoin break below $76,141 or a hot jobs report. The $1.00 zone requires both a break of $1.19 and a sustained selling wave that overwhelms the ETF bid.

For risk management, $1.19 is the line. Above it, the base case is a range with a capped upside. Below it on a daily close, the forecast shifts to $1.00, with $0.98 the extended downside.

The Resistance Map: $1.26 to $1.28, $1.30, the $1.325 to $1.366 EMA Band and $1.40 to $1.43

The XRP upside is crowded with moving averages, and the first layer sits within pennies.

The first resistance is the $1.26 to $1.28 cluster. Immediate resistance sits at $1.26, the top of Monday’s range. The seven-day simple moving average and strong resistance sit at $1.27, and the 12-period exponential moving average at $1.28. A daily close above $1.28 would mean the post-hack fear is fading and would be the first sign that buyers have regained short-term control. It sits 1.9% above spot.

The second is $1.30, the psychological round number and the 20-day moving average at $1.2999. XRP traded above $1.30 for most of October before the hack. Reclaiming it would erase the hack-day damage. It sits 3.5% above the current price.

The third is the exponential moving average band between $1.325 and $1.366. The 100-day exponential moving average sits at $1.325, the 50-day at $1.340 and the 200-day at $1.366. The 50-day average crossed below the 200-day in October, a bearish signal that turned both into overhead resistance. This band rejected the mid-October rally attempt and will cap any recovery until XRP closes above it. The 50-day average at $1.340, 6.6% above spot, marks the top of the base-case range. The 200-day average at $1.366, 8.7% above spot, is the primary upside target.

A daily close above $1.366 would put XRP above its 200-day average for the first time since October 22 and would mark the first technical repair of the October breakdown. That would require a catalyst: a clear signal that the stolen XRP will not hit the market, a Bitcoin breakout above $80,000 or a sharp acceleration in ETF inflows back toward September’s pace.

Above that, $1.40 is the psychological level where mid-October rallies stalled, and $1.43 marks the resistance where the October 21 bounce failed. The $1.48 realized price, where the average holder breaks even, sits 17.8% above spot and would bring heavy selling from underwater holders. The $1.53 level, the early-October high, and $1.70, the summer high, define the outer boundary.

The sequencing is clear. XRP needs a close above $1.28 to confirm a bounce, above $1.30 to erase the hack damage, and above $1.366 to repair the trend. Each step faces heavier supply than the last.

XRP Price Forecast and Verdict: Range $1.19 to $1.34, Target $1.366, Bearish Below $1.19

The forecast rests on a contest between institutional demand and a hostile supply overhang. On the demand side, U.S. spot XRP ETFs closed October with $18.83 million in net inflows, their seventh straight positive month, bringing cumulative inflows to $1.81 billion. ETF holdings rose to 1.20 billion XRP through the selloff, and the funds pulled in $8.43 million on the day of the Binance theft itself. Exchange balances fell 133.0 million XRP last week as tokens moved into self-custody. No other altcoin has an institutional bid this consistent.

On the supply side, the attacker holds 233.46 million stolen XRP that no one can freeze, worth $293 million, between a quarter and half of a typical day’s trading volume. On Monday morning, the attacker split the entire balance into six new wallets, the first step in laundering it toward a sale. Another 1 billion XRP unlocked from escrow on November 1. Roughly 60% of circulating supply sits below the $1.48 realized price. Taker order flow shows net selling at a 0.7708 ratio, and price sits in the lower fifth of its Bollinger Bands.

The base case, with the highest probability through Friday’s jobs report, is a range between $1.19 and $1.34. The floor is defended by the October 30 low, the ETF bid and falling exchange balances. The ceiling is set by the 50-day exponential moving average at $1.340 and the overhead band of moving averages that rejected October’s rally attempts.

The bull case targets $1.366, the 200-day exponential moving average, an 8.7% gain from the current price. It needs the stolen XRP to stay off major exchanges, Bitcoin to break above $80,000, and ETF inflows to accelerate in the first week of November. A daily close above $1.28 would confirm the bounce; a close above $1.366 would repair the October breakdown and open $1.40 to $1.43.

The bear case activates on a daily close below $1.19. That would mean the stolen XRP has reached the market or Bitcoin has broken below its October low, overwhelming the ETF bid. The next target would be $1.00, with the 52-week low at $0.9886 and $0.98 as the extended downside.

The asymmetry tilts bearish in the near term. XRP sits 5.3% above its invalidation level and 8.7% below its primary target, but order flow favors sellers, the volatility compression is likely to resolve with a test of the lower band first, and the stolen XRP has just started moving. The ETF bid makes a collapse below $1.00 unlikely without a broader crypto market breakdown.

The verdict is neutral with a bearish tilt: XRP holds the $1.19 to $1.34 range through Friday’s U.S. jobs report, with a near-term test of the $1.2323 lower band likely as the stolen tokens move, a daily close above $1.366 opening $1.40 to $1.43, and a daily close below $1.19 invalidating the range and shifting the target to $1.00.

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