Jfrog Erases Thursday’s 13.57% AI Sell-Off as 124% Net Retention — $88–$110 Range Into February

JFrog shares rose $22.66, or 30.37%, to $97.28 on Friday after the software supply chain company reported the largest revenue beat in its history. The stock reached $100.06 during the session, up 34.09%. Thursday’s close was $74.62, after a 13.57% drop in the Nasdaq’s AI-led sell-off. At $97.28, JFrog is worth $11.6 billion and is up 63% in 2026. Its 52-week high of $104.03, set in August, is 6.9% above the current price.

The quarter cleared every target. According to the company’s third-quarter release, revenue rose 31% to $179.2 million, against a consensus of $165.9 million and the company’s own guidance of $164 million to $166 million. Cloud revenue grew 60% to $101.5 million, speeding up from 53% in the second quarter, and now makes up 57% of total revenue against 46% a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.32 per share against $0.23 expected. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $183 million to $185 million sits 9.3% above the $168.4 million consensus.

Our thesis is that JFrog sells to AI rather than competing with it, and the market spent most of 2026 pricing it the other way. Software stocks fell early in the year on fears that autonomous AI agents would replace seat-based software subscriptions. JFrog’s cloud business is priced by consumption: customers pay for the volume of software packages, binaries and AI models stored, scanned and distributed through its platform. Every line of code an AI agent writes produces an artifact that has to be stored, secured and governed. As AI coding tools multiply code volume, JFrog’s usage-based revenue rises with it.

The numbers support that reading. Net dollar retention rose to 124% from 118% a year earlier. Remaining performance obligations, the contracted revenue not yet recognized, rose 60% to $812.4 million. Customers paying more than $1 million a year rose 58% to 112. Full-year revenue guidance is now $680 million to $682 million, 28% growth and the fourth increase this year from the $623 million to $628 million guided in February.

At $97.28, the stock trades at 15.7 times 2026 enterprise value to sales and 85 times non-GAAP earnings. That price assumes cloud growth stays near 50% to 60% for several years. Our base case through the next earnings report in February is a range of $88 to $110, with a midpoint of $99. Holding cloud growth above 50% and clearing the $104.03 high would open $120, 23% higher. A sharp slowdown in AI coding spending or another AI-driven sell-off would send the shares back toward Thursday’s close of $74.62, 23% lower, where the post-earnings gap would close.

The Third Quarter: $179.2 Million and a $13.2 Million Beat

JFrog’s third quarter was the strongest in its history as a public company. Revenue of $179.2 million beat the top of the company’s own guidance range by $13.2 million and the consensus estimate by $13.3 million, an 8% beat. Growth of 31% was the fastest of the year, speeding up from 26% in the first quarter and 29% in the second. Over the past five years, JFrog has grown revenue at a 27.6% compound annual rate.

The cloud business drove the result. Cloud revenue of $101.5 million rose 60% from a year earlier and 16% from the second quarter’s $87.5 million. Cloud growth has accelerated every quarter this year: 50% in the first quarter, 53% in the second and 60% in the third. Self-managed revenue, from customers who run JFrog’s software on their own servers, rose 6% to $77.7 million. The shift toward cloud means a growing share of revenue scales directly with customer usage.

Profitability improved with growth. Non-GAAP gross margin was 83.6% and GAAP gross margin was 79.6%. Non-GAAP operating income was $40.7 million, a 22.7% margin, up from 18.7% a year earlier and 44% above the $28.2 million consensus. Operating expenses were $109.1 million, 61% of revenue. On a GAAP basis, JFrog posted an operating loss of $1.8 million, a margin of negative 1.0% against negative 15.8% a year earlier, and net income of $6.6 million, or $0.05 per diluted share.

Cash generation was strong. Operating cash flow was $69.3 million and free cash flow was $66.5 million, a 37.1% margin. Over the first nine months, free cash flow totalled $157.5 million on revenue of $496.9 million. Cash and investments rose to $880.9 million from $704.4 million at the end of 2025. Billings, which capture cash collected upfront, rose 31.9% to $216 million, faster than revenue.

The quarter also showed deeper customer commitment. Customers adopting the full JFrog Platform Enterprise+ subscription accounted for 61% of revenue, up from 56% a year earlier, and revenue from those subscriptions grew 42%. Customers paying more than $100,000 a year rose 21% to 1,357 from 1,121. Gross retention held at 97%, so JFrog loses only 3% of revenue a year to customers leaving. That combination of rising spending per customer and very low churn is what drives the 124% net dollar retention rate.

Guidance: Fourth Increase This Year and a Q4 Midpoint of $184 Million

The guidance was as important as the quarter. JFrog expects fourth-quarter revenue of $183 million to $185 million, a midpoint of $184 million that is 26.6% above the $145.3 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2025. The consensus estimate was $168.4 million, so the guidance midpoint was $15.6 million, or 9.3%, above what the market expected. For the full year, JFrog now expects revenue of $680 million to $682 million, 28% growth from $531.8 million in 2025.

The guidance history shows a company that sets conservative targets and beats them. JFrog started 2026 guiding to $623 million to $628 million. It raised that to $628 million to $632 million in May, to $648 million to $652 million in August, and to $680 million to $682 million on Thursday. The midpoint has risen by $55.5 million, or 8.9%, since February. JFrog has beaten the top of its quarterly guidance in each of the past three quarters, and the third-quarter beat of $13.2 million was the largest.

If JFrog beats its fourth-quarter guidance by the same margin as the third quarter, fourth-quarter revenue would reach $197 million, growth of 36%. That is not the base case, but the pattern suggests the $184 million midpoint is a floor rather than a target. Management also raised its full-year cloud growth forecast to 52% to 54%, citing strong year-to-date results and adoption of its security products.

The profit guidance is softer. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP operating income is guided at $36.2 million to $38.2 million, a margin of 20.2% at the midpoint, below the third quarter’s 22.7%. Non-GAAP earnings per share are guided at $0.28 to $0.30, below the third quarter’s $0.32. The company expects about 131 million diluted shares in the fourth quarter. Full-year non-GAAP operating income is guided at $142.5 million to $144.5 million and non-GAAP EPS at $1.14 to $1.16, raised 17.3% from the previous midpoint.

The lower fourth-quarter margin is a minor concern. Seasonal costs, investment in sales capacity and higher cloud hosting costs as consumption grows explain part of it. But a company growing revenue 27% to 31% while its operating margin falls by 2.5 percentage points between quarters is spending to support that growth. Investors will watch whether margins recover in 2027 or whether rising cloud costs keep them below the third quarter’s 22.7%.

Cloud at 60%: Why AI-Generated Code Means More Revenue

JFrog’s core product is Artifactory, a system of record for software artifacts, the packages, binaries, containers and libraries that developers assemble into applications. Around it, the company sells security scanning, distribution and governance tools. The cloud version charges customers for consumption: storage, data transfer and the number of artifacts processed. When developers produce more code, customers store and move more artifacts, and the cloud bill rises.

AI coding tools have multiplied that volume. CEO Shlomi Ben Haim put it directly: AI agents are writing code faster than any developer can review it, and every output becomes an artifact that must be stored, secured and governed. When a developer uses an AI assistant to generate hundreds of lines of code in minutes, that code still depends on open-source libraries, builds into binaries and deploys through containers. Each step creates artifacts that flow through JFrog’s platform.

The acceleration in cloud growth reflects that shift. Cloud revenue grew 50% in the first quarter, 53% in the second and 60% in the third, even as software stocks sold off on fears that AI would replace software. JFrog’s consumption model turns higher code volume into revenue quickly, so the effect of AI adoption shows up in quarterly results rather than waiting for contract renewals. Management cited cloud consumption from developers using AI tools as the main driver of the quarter.

JFrog has extended its platform to AI models. Customers now store and govern AI models alongside traditional software packages, treating models as artifacts that need version control, security scanning and access rules. The company launched AI Asset Scanning to check models for vulnerabilities, Agent Guard to secure AI agents, and support for Microsoft’s Agent Package Manager. Those products position JFrog as the governance layer for enterprise AI, not just for traditional software.

For the forecast, the AI link is the core of the bull case. If AI coding adoption keeps growing, code volume will keep rising, and JFrog’s cloud revenue will keep growing at 50% or more. The risk is that the link is less direct than it appears. Some AI-generated code may never reach production, and customers may find ways to reduce storage and data transfer costs as volumes grow. For now, the 60% growth rate and 124% net dollar retention show customers are spending more, not less.

Security: Zero-Touch Remediation and the Self-Healing Supply Chain

Security is JFrog’s second growth engine. Software supply chain attacks, in which attackers compromise open-source libraries or build systems to insert malicious code, have become one of the most serious threats to enterprises. JFrog’s security products scan artifacts for known vulnerabilities, block malicious packages and enforce policies on which components developers can use. Because JFrog already stores the artifacts, it can scan them without adding a separate tool.

The company expanded its security lineup this quarter. It launched Zero-Touch Remediation, which automatically applies verified fixes for known vulnerabilities without waiting for developers to act. It also announced a self-healing supply chain security ecosystem with partners including Broadcom, Chainguard, Echo, IBM’s Red Hat, Moderne, TuxCare and Seal Security. A partnership with Wiz connects JFrog’s code security to cloud and runtime monitoring, giving customers visibility from the developer’s laptop to production.

Security adoption is growing faster than the rest of the business. At the end of 2025, JFrog Security Core made up 7% of revenue, 10% of annual recurring revenue and 16% of remaining performance obligations. Because security accounts for a larger share of contracted future revenue than of current revenue, it will make up a growing share of revenue as those contracts are recognized. Management cited security adoption among large enterprise customers as one reason it raised full-year cloud guidance.

AI makes security more important. AI coding tools often suggest open-source packages without checking whether they are safe. Attackers have started publishing malicious packages with names similar to those AI models tend to suggest, hoping developers will accept them without review. More AI-generated code means more dependencies to scan and more risk of compromised components. That increases demand for automated scanning and remediation, which JFrog is building into its platform.

For the forecast, security supports both growth and retention. Customers that buy security products alongside Artifactory spend more and are less likely to leave, since replacing an integrated platform is harder than replacing a single tool. The rise in Enterprise+ revenue to 61% of the total and gross retention of 97% show that the bundled platform is sticky. Security is not yet large enough to drive the stock on its own, but it raises the quality of JFrog’s revenue.

Customers: 112 Paying Over $1 Million, 124% Net Dollar Retention

JFrog’s growth is coming from its largest customers. Customers with annual recurring revenue above $1 million rose to 112 from 71 a year earlier, a 58% increase. The count has risen every quarter this year: 80 in the first quarter, 97 in the second and 112 in the third. Customers paying more than $100,000 a year rose 21% to 1,357. JFrog’s customer base includes most of the Fortune 100, and those companies are expanding their use of the platform as they adopt AI coding tools.

Net dollar retention measures how much existing customers spend compared with a year earlier. JFrog’s trailing four-quarter rate rose to 124% in the third quarter, from 121% in the second, 120% in the first and 118% a year ago. A rate of 124% means JFrog would have grown revenue 24% from existing customers alone even if it had signed no new customers. For a software company with $680 million of annual revenue, that is an exceptionally high rate.

The rise in net dollar retention is the clearest evidence that AI is helping JFrog rather than hurting it. If AI agents were reducing the need for JFrog’s platform, existing customers would be spending less, and retention would fall. Instead, it has risen 6 percentage points in a year. Customers are storing more artifacts, adding more security products and moving more workloads to the cloud. The 97% gross retention rate shows few customers are leaving.

Remaining performance obligations show the commitment extends into the future. RPO rose 60% to $812.4 million at the end of September, up from $566 million at the end of 2025. That increase of $246.4 million in nine months reflects larger and longer enterprise contracts, more cloud consumption commitments and more security adoption. RPO growing twice as fast as revenue points to faster revenue growth in coming quarters.

For the forecast, the customer metrics set a high floor under revenue. With 124% net dollar retention, 97% gross retention and RPO up 60%, JFrog has visibility into most of its 2027 revenue before it signs a single new customer. That visibility is why the market rewarded the quarter with a 30% gain. It also makes the forecast less dependent on new customer wins, which can be lumpy, and more dependent on whether existing customers keep growing their usage.

The 2026 Software Sell-Off and Why JFrog Recovered

JFrog’s share price this year has followed the broader debate about AI and software. In early 2026, software stocks fell sharply on fears that autonomous AI agents would replace traditional software tools and reduce the number of developer seats companies pay for. JFrog shares had fallen 8.7% for the year by early May, as investors worried that AI-powered development platforms might reduce demand for traditional software infrastructure. In March, the stock traded near $41.

The first-quarter report in May started the recovery. Revenue rose 26% to $154.0 million, cloud revenue grew 50%, and management raised guidance. The stock jumped 17% to $66.56 the next day and continued higher to $70.55. After the second-quarter report in August, the stock reached its 52-week high of $104.03, then drifted 9.0% lower over the following weeks as investors took profits. Before Thursday’s report, the stock closed at $86.34 on Wednesday.

Thursday’s sell-off nearly erased the gains. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% and entered correction territory, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped more than 12%, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and investors feared tighter regulation of AI and data centers. JFrog fell 13.57% to $74.62, as investors sold anything linked to AI. The stock went into its earnings report at its lowest level since early October.

Friday’s 30.37% jump reversed that drop and more. The results showed that JFrog’s business is benefiting from AI adoption regardless of what happens to AI stock valuations. Two firms raised their price targets to $118 and $120 after the report. Software stocks with consumption-based pricing tied to AI usage have become a distinct group within the sector, and JFrog’s results put it at the front of that group.

For the forecast, JFrog’s link to AI now cuts both ways. The business benefits from AI adoption, but the stock trades with the broader AI complex. Thursday’s 13.57% drop shows that a sell-off in AI stocks can hit JFrog hard even when its fundamentals are improving. If AI regulation fears return or AI spending slows, JFrog would fall with the group. If AI stocks stabilize, the stock’s fundamentals give it room to outperform.

Valuation: $11.6 Billion, 15.7 Times Sales, 85 Times Earnings

At $97.28, JFrog’s market value is $11.6 billion. Subtracting $880.9 million of cash and investments, and with no debt, the enterprise value is $10.7 billion. Against 2026 revenue guidance of $681 million at the midpoint, that is 15.7 times sales. If revenue grows 25% in 2027, to $851 million, the multiple falls to 12.6 times forward sales. Against full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.15, the stock trades at 85 times earnings.

Those multiples are high but not extreme for a company growing 28% with a 37% free cash flow margin in its strongest quarter. Annualizing the first nine months’ free cash flow of $157.5 million gives $210 million for the full year, a free cash flow yield of 1.8% on the market value. Software companies with similar growth and margins have traded at 12 to 20 times forward sales in recent years. JFrog sits in the middle of that range.

The valuation depends on cloud growth staying high. A company growing revenue at 28% and cloud revenue at 55% deserves a premium. If cloud growth slows to 35% to 40% in 2027 and total growth slows to 20%, the multiple would likely compress toward 10 to 12 times sales, implying a share price of $75 to $90. If cloud growth holds above 50% and total growth stays near 30%, a multiple of 15 times 2027 sales would support a share price of $105 to $115.

Analyst targets point higher. After the results, two firms raised targets to $118 and $120, implying 21% to 23% upside from the current price. Market forecasts before the report expected revenue growth to slow to 14.2% over the next 12 months, well below the 26.6% JFrog has guided for the fourth quarter. Those forecasts will be revised higher, and higher estimates will lower the forward multiples.

Share count is a minor drag. JFrog expects about 129 million diluted shares for the full year and 131 million in the fourth quarter, up from previous quarters, as stock-based compensation adds to the count. The company repurchased only $2.0 million of shares in the first nine months and announced no new buyback. With $880.9 million in cash, JFrog could fund a larger repurchase program, but management has preferred to keep cash for investment and acquisitions.

GAAP Versus Non-GAAP: Stock Compensation and the Margin Gap

JFrog’s profitability looks very different depending on the measure. Non-GAAP operating income was $40.7 million, a 22.7% margin. GAAP operating income was a loss of $1.8 million, a margin of negative 1.0%. The difference of $42.5 million comes mainly from stock-based compensation, along with amortization of acquired intangible assets and other items. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.32 per share, while GAAP earnings were $0.05.

The gap has narrowed. A year earlier, JFrog’s GAAP operating margin was negative 15.8%. Over the first nine months of 2026, the GAAP operating loss was $28.0 million, a margin of negative 5.6%, while non-GAAP operating income was $106.3 million, a 21.4% margin. The GAAP net loss for the nine months was $5.9 million, against non-GAAP net income of $109.7 million. GAAP profitability is within reach, and the third quarter showed net income on a GAAP basis.

Stock-based compensation is a real cost. It dilutes existing shareholders by adding to the share count, and the diluted share count is rising toward 131 million. For a company with a market value of $11.6 billion, annual stock compensation of roughly $170 million represents about 1.5% dilution a year. That is typical for a high-growth software company but needs to fall as a share of revenue for GAAP margins to keep improving.

Free cash flow gives a cleaner picture than either earnings measure. JFrog generated $66.5 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, a 37.1% margin, because stock compensation is a non-cash cost and customers often pay upfront. Over the first nine months, free cash flow was $157.5 million on revenue of $496.9 million, a 31.7% margin. That cash funds investment without the need to raise capital and supports the balance sheet.

For the forecast, the GAAP-non-GAAP gap is a secondary concern. Investors value JFrog on revenue growth, free cash flow and non-GAAP margins, as they do most software companies. A move to sustained GAAP profitability would widen the pool of investors who can own the stock, including some value funds and indexes that require GAAP profits. The third quarter’s $6.6 million GAAP net income was a step in that direction, but fourth-quarter guidance suggests margins will dip before they improve.

Market Backdrop: AI Regulation, Rates and a Volatile Nasdaq

JFrog’s report landed in a difficult market. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315, the S&P 500 lost 4.36% and the Dow dropped 1,833 points. The selling followed the Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress, which raised fears of tighter AI and data-center regulation. Japan’s Nikkei fell 6.7% overnight and Korea’s KOSPI fell 8.7%, triggering a circuit breaker. Friday brought a partial rebound, with the Nasdaq up around 400 points.

Regulation is the new risk for AI-linked stocks. The new Congress takes office on January 3, 2027, and Democrats have signalled interest in rules on AI safety, data privacy and the energy use of data centers. For JFrog, direct regulation of software supply chains would likely help rather than hurt: governments have pushed for software bills of materials and supply chain security standards, which increase demand for JFrog’s products. The risk is indirect, through slower AI adoption or lower AI valuations.

Interest rates add pressure on high-multiple stocks. The October jobs report showed payrolls rising by 165,000 against a 70,000 consensus and unemployment falling to 4.1%. Futures now price a 74.8% chance of a Fed hike on December 9. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, its first increase since 2023. The ten-year Treasury yield is at 4.90%. Higher yields raise the discount rate on future cash flows, which hurts growth stocks most.

Software stocks have diverged within the sector. Companies with seat-based pricing, which charge per user, face the risk that AI agents reduce the number of users. Companies with consumption-based pricing, like JFrog, benefit when AI increases usage. Thursday’s sell-off hit both groups, but Friday’s rally favoured companies that reported strong results. Moderna, TransMedics and Ubiquiti also rose sharply on Friday after strong reports.

For the forecast, the macro backdrop is a headwind but not a barrier. JFrog’s fundamentals are strong enough to support the stock in a stable market. A further fall in AI stocks or a sharp rise in yields would hit the shares regardless of results, as Thursday showed. The stock has had 21 moves greater than 5% in the past year, and that volatility will continue.

The Technical Map: $104.03 Resistance, $86.34 and $74.62 Support

Friday’s move created a large gap on the chart. The stock closed Thursday at $74.62 and opened Friday above $91, leaving a gap of more than $16. Gaps of this size often partially fill in the days after earnings, as early buyers take profits. The first support is $91.25, where the stock traded before the open, and then $86.34, Wednesday’s close before the AI sell-off.

Resistance starts at $100.06, Friday’s intraday high, and $100.00, the round number. Above that, the August high of $104.03 is the 52-week high and the key level. A daily close above $104.03 would put JFrog at its highest level since its 2020 IPO period and open the way to $110 and the $118 to $120 zone where analysts have set their new targets. From $97.28, $104.03 is 6.9% higher and $120 is 23.4% higher.

Below $86.34, the next major support is the $74.62 to $75.00 zone, Thursday’s close. A full gap fill to that level would erase the post-earnings gain and suggest the market doubted the quality of the quarter. That would be unusual after a beat of this size, but not impossible in a market where AI-linked stocks are falling. Below $74.62, the October lows and the $70 area, where the stock traded after the first-quarter report, would come into view.

The trend since March is up. The stock has risen from $41 in March to $66.56 in May, $104.03 in August and $97.28 now, with a series of higher lows. The August-to-November pullback to $74.62 tested that trend and held above the May breakout level. Friday’s move returned the stock to the upper part of its range and set up a test of the August high.

Momentum is strong but stretched. A 30% one-day gain usually pushes momentum indicators into overbought territory, and stocks often consolidate for days or weeks before making another move. Volume on Friday was far above average, which shows institutional buying rather than a short squeeze alone. In the near term, a pullback toward $90 to $91 would be normal and would not damage the trend.

Scenario Map: $120 Upside, $88–$110 Base, $75 Downside

Our forecast covers the period through JFrog’s fourth-quarter report in February 2027, with three scenarios.

The base case, at 50% probability, is a range of $88 to $110, with a midpoint of $99. In this scenario, the AI sell-off stabilizes, the Fed hikes on December 9 as priced and Treasury yields stay near current levels. JFrog’s stock consolidates Friday’s gain, partially fills the gap toward $90, and then tests the $104.03 August high without a sustained break. Analyst estimates rise to reflect the new guidance, lowering the forward multiples. The stock trades with the software sector until the fourth-quarter report.

The bullish case, at 25% probability, is a rally to $120, 23% above the current price. JFrog would need to keep cloud growth above 55%, with fourth-quarter revenue beating guidance by $10 million or more and 2027 guidance pointing to total growth near 25% to 30%. AI stocks would need to recover from Thursday’s sell-off, and yields would need to stabilize. A close above $104.03 would trigger technical buying, carrying the stock toward the $118 to $120 analyst targets.

The bearish case, at 25% probability, is a fall to $75, 23% below the current price. This would follow another wave of AI-related selling, triggered by regulation fears, disappointing results from AI leaders or a sharp rise in yields. JFrog’s own business would not need to weaken for this scenario to happen, as Thursday’s 13.57% drop showed. A full gap fill to $74.62 would put the stock back at its pre-earnings level and test the trend that began in March.

From $97.28, the risk-reward is balanced with a slight upside tilt. The bullish target and bearish target are both 23% away and carry equal probability, while the base-case midpoint of $99 sits 2% above the current price. The signals that will decide which scenario plays out, in order of importance, are the direction of AI-linked stocks, Treasury yields and the Fed’s December 9 decision, cloud consumption commentary from JFrog and its peers, analyst estimate revisions, and the fourth-quarter report in February.

Verdict: Bullish on the Business, Neutral on the Price, Buy Dips Toward $86–$91

JFrog at $97.28 has jumped 30.37% in a day after the biggest revenue beat in its history. Revenue rose 31% to $179.2 million, $13.2 million above the top of guidance. Cloud revenue grew 60% to $101.5 million, accelerating for the third straight quarter. Net dollar retention rose to 124%, remaining performance obligations grew 60% to $812.4 million, and customers paying more than $1 million rose 58% to 112. Fourth-quarter guidance of $184 million at the midpoint is 9.3% above consensus, and full-year guidance has been raised for the fourth time this year.

The quarter answers the question that weighed on the stock for most of 2026. AI coding tools are not replacing JFrog. They are increasing the volume of code, packages, binaries and models that flow through its platform, and JFrog’s consumption-based pricing turns that volume into revenue. Security products, including Zero-Touch Remediation and partnerships with Wiz, Broadcom and Red Hat, add a second growth engine and make customers less likely to leave. Gross retention of 97% and $880.9 million in cash give the company a strong base.

The price already reflects much of that. At 15.7 times 2026 enterprise value to sales and 85 times non-GAAP earnings, the stock needs cloud growth to stay near 50% or more for several years. Fourth-quarter margin guidance of 20.2% is below the third quarter’s 22.7%. The stock also trades with the AI complex, and Thursday’s 13.57% drop showed how hard a sector sell-off can hit it even when fundamentals are improving. Rising yields and a Fed priced to hike in December add pressure on high-multiple growth stocks.

Our call is bullish on the business and neutral on the price. We would buy dips toward $86 to $91, between Wednesday’s close and Friday’s opening level, within a base-case range of $88 to $110 and a midpoint target of $99 through the February report. A daily close above the $104.03 August high would open $120. A close below $74.62, Thursday’s pre-earnings level, would invalidate the view and signal that the AI sell-off is overwhelming the fundamentals. JFrog has shown that AI increases demand for its platform, and the next quarter has to show that growth can continue at this pace.

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