Natural Gas Price Forecast - Natural Gas Jumps to $4.35 as Arctic Freeze Turns Henry Hub Into a Stress Test

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price After The Arctic Shock

March Henry Hub futures on NYMEX closed Friday at $4.354 per mmBtu. That was an 11% jump on the session and about a 20.6% gain over the week. The front-month contract has now more than doubled in roughly a week off the lows near the low-$2s. The brief drop to about $3.75 per mmBtu on Thursday was mostly a front-month contract switch, not a fundamental collapse. Technically, the contract has pushed through the 52-week moving average around $3.875 and finished above a prior resistance band near $4.326. The next question for the market is simple and binary: can Henry Hub defend the $4 handle once trading resumes and fresh weather and storage expectations hit the tape.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Supply Shock And Production Stress

The rally is anchored in a genuine supply shock. The Arctic blast froze roughly 50 bcf of US output between Saturday and Monday. That is about 15% of total US natural gas production knocked out in a few days. Lower-48 dry gas output is currently near 110.0 bcf per day, about 3.4% higher than a year ago, but that growth was not enough to offset the freeze-offs. Some volumes are returning as conditions ease in Texas and other basins, yet the episode shows how fragile supply becomes in extreme cold. The rig count backs this structure. Active US gas rigs rose by three last week to 125, slightly below the recent 2.25-year high of 130 and up from a 4.5-year low of 94 in September 2024. Drilling has recovered from the trough, but it is not in an aggressive expansion phase. The EIA now projects 2026 US dry gas production at 107.4 bcf per day, down from a prior estimate of 109.11 bcf per day. That cut signals an official shift toward slower growth even before weather disruptions are layered on top.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Demand Spike, Heating Load And LNG Pull

Demand is the other pillar of the move. Lower-48 gas consumption on Friday was estimated near 128.7 bcf per day. That is a 38.4% year-on-year increase driven by extreme heating need under the Arctic dome. US electricity output in the week to January 24 fell 6.3% year on year to 91,131 GWh, but production over the last 52 weeks is still up 2.1%. Direct heating and industrial demand, not incremental power burn, drove this specific spike. LNG exports remain a structural support. Net flows to US LNG export terminals are running around 17.7–17.9 bcf per day. Freeport LNG has climbed back to about 1.8 bcf per day after a compressor fault, still shy of its full capacity near 2.4 bcf per day. At the same time, terminals such as Cove Point and Elba Island have been active even during the cold wave. That is unusual and demonstrates overlapping domestic and export pull. When demand pushes toward 170.7 bcf per day this week, with forecasts dipping to 156.5 bcf per day next week, and exports hold near 18 bcf per day, a price spike becomes almost inevitable in the face of temporary supply losses.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Storage, EIA Prints And The Fast Shrinking Cushion

Storage is moving from comfortable to vulnerable in real time. Working gas in US underground storage sits around 2,823 bcf. The latest confirmed EIA report showed a withdrawal of 242 bcf for the week ending January 23. Consensus expected a 238 bcf draw, and the five-year average for that week is roughly 208 bcf. Even after that heavy pull, inventories were still 9.8% above last year and about 5.3% above the five-year seasonal norm. The forecast for the next report is different in scale. Analysts expect a 352 bcf draw for the week ending January 30. A withdrawal of that magnitude would flip the balance, pushing stocks to about 0.8% below the five-year average. One more large draw after that could take inventories clearly under both last year and the five-year line. That shift from surplus to deficit in two reports is exactly what Friday’s price action started to discount as March Natural Gas (NG=F) printed $4.354 per mmBtu and traders repriced the risk that winter ends with little spare gas.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Global Context, Europe, LNG And Turkish Prices

The international backdrop underlines that US gas is not operating in isolation. European Union gas storage is about 43–43.5% full compared with a typical five-year seasonal level near 58%. In a normal winter, stocks might drop another 15 percentage points by the end of March. EU imports have started the year strongly. For the first twenty days of January, gas imports were about 14% higher than the same period a year earlier. The US supplied roughly 60% of the bloc’s LNG receipts in January, reinforcing the transatlantic link between Henry Hub and European hubs. Shipping risk adds another layer. Tension around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about one-fifth of global seaborne LNG, has returned as a headline. Any disruption there could tighten the Atlantic basin further. Regional spot prices highlight the spread. On Türkiye’s spot gas market, 1,000 cubic meters traded at 14,487 lira on Saturday. With the lira near 43.36 to the dollar, that is around $334 per 1,000 cubic meters, close to $9.5 per mmBtu. Henry Hub near $4.10–$4.35 per mmBtu trades at less than half that, leaving a wide arbitrage window as long as logistics and contracts allow volume to move.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Inventory Overhang And Slow Structural Normalization

Despite the recent tightening, a residual overhang remains in US storage. Before the Arctic blast, inventories sat about 5–5.3% above the five-year average, and the week-to-week change in that gap was small. That slow pace of normalization kept a ceiling on Natural Gas (NG=F) rallies during most of 2024 and late 2025. Every move toward the high-$3s met selling from traders who looked at the surplus and assumed that LNG capacity and robust production would prevent any sustained squeeze. The current sequence of draws is the first realistic chance to erase that surplus within a single heating season. If the 352 bcf forecast is close to reality and the next report also shows a withdrawal above 200 bcf, the residual 5% cushion vanishes quickly. Once inventories drop decisively below the five-year line, the market will stop treating storage as an anchor and start treating it as a risk factor, especially if late-season forecasts keep adding demand days beyond mid-February.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Weather Path, 10–15 Day Forecasts And Risk To The Rally

Weather remains the largest swing variable. Current guidance keeps below-normal temperatures entrenched across the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast into the February 4–8 window. That outlook guarantees at least one more week of strong heating load. The cold has been intense enough to push unusual lows down the Gulf Coast and into South Florida. Even the Miami area is facing temperatures that are rare for that region. The key point for pricing is that this cold wave was not a surprise to the market. Traders had several days of warning, which means much of the impact is already reflected in Friday’s settlement at $4.354 per mmBtu. The focus now shifts to the 10–15 day forecast updates. If those runs stay cold or turn even more supportive, the curve has room to march toward the mid-$4s or low-$5s. If the models flip toward seasonal or warmer patterns in the Midwest and Northeast while production fully recovers, the weather premium evaporates fast, and Natural Gas (NG=F) could slide back toward the $3.40–$3.70 band as the market re-prices toward structural averages.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Technical Structure, Breakout Levels And Support

The technical backdrop is constructive but unforgiving. March Natural Gas (NG=F) has broken and closed above the 52-week moving average at $3.875. It has also cleared a prior main top near $4.326, an area that capped several attempts higher over the past year. The expiring nearby contract briefly printed a three-year high earlier in the week, driven by aggressive short-covering during the worst of the freeze. The March contract carries a different positioning profile, so further upside from here is more likely to be uneven rather than a vertical squeeze. The first key support now sits in the $3.85–$4.00 zone, defined by the moving average and the prior resistance shelf. If that band holds on pullbacks, the breakout remains valid and a retest of $4.75–$5.00 becomes plausible in a continued cold and tight storage scenario. A clean break back below $3.85, especially after a milder forecast update or a softer EIA draw, would signal that the recent rally was mainly a weather shock and that the market is slipping back into range trading around the mid-$3s.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Cross-Market Relative Value And Global Spread

Relative value still leans in favor of US gas. European storage around 43–43.5%, potential declines of another 15 percentage points by late March, and ongoing dependence on imported LNG underscore how exposed the region is to external shocks. EU imports being 14% higher year on year in the opening weeks of 2026 highlight how heavily the bloc leans on inbound gas. The US currently supplies about 60% of European LNG, making Natural Gas (NG=F) a global swing factor rather than a purely domestic commodity. Spot price signals from hubs such as Türkiye around $9.5 per mmBtu, combined with US inventories that are only about 5% above the five-year average and likely heading lower, argue that Henry Hub remains discounted relative to its strategic importance. As soon as the US storage surplus fully disappears, that discount becomes harder to justify unless production steps up materially or LNG flows face a constraint.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Directional View: Buy, Sell Or Hold After The Spike

The current configuration for Natural Gas (NG=F) is high risk but still skewed to the upside. Supply has been hit by a 50 bcf freeze-off event, demand has surged to roughly 170.7 bcf per day at peak, LNG export flows are near 17.7–17.9 bcf per day, and storage is transitioning from a 5.3% surplus against the five-year average to a likely deficit if the next one or two EIA reports confirm draws above 200 bcf. Overseas hubs trade near or above $9 per mmBtu, while Henry Hub sits in the low-$4s. EU storage sits near 43–43.5% with winter far from over, and US production growth is being revised down by the EIA to 107.4 bcf per day for 2026. The main bearish checks are the remaining storage overhang, output still near record levels at 110.0 bcf per day, a gradual rise in the rig count to 125, and the chance that extended forecasts flip warmer and erase the weather premium. Balancing those forces, the setup supports a Buy stance on Natural Gas (NG=F) at current levels for traders who can manage volatility and respond quickly to weather and storage surprises. The thesis is not based on slow carry; it is a conviction that storage will punch below the five-year average, winter will stay supportive for at least another one to two weeks, and global LNG demand will keep a floor under prices once the immediate Arctic shock moderates.

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