NBIS ($233.24) Sits 18.6% Below Its Record as H100 Prices Rise to $4.50 — 41% EBITDA Margin Backs Upside

Nebius is giving back a slice of Tuesday's rally on a hostile day for high-growth technology. NBIS traded at $233.24 on Wednesday, down 1.22%, after climbing 5.03% to $244.50 intraday on Tuesday on reports of a fresh GPU price increase. The pullback came as the U.S. composite PMI jumped to 58.4, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.058%, its highest since July 2007, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.06%. A 1.22% decline on a day the Nasdaq lost more than 1% is relative resilience, not weakness.

The operating story is the strongest in the AI infrastructure group. Second-quarter revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% year over year and 46% from the first quarter. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $3.0 billion at the end of June, up 598% year over year and 56% from the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million, a 41% margin, up from a loss of $21 million a year earlier. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance for $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion in revenue and $7 billion to $9 billion in year-end ARR.

Pricing is the new catalyst. From October 1, Nebius will raise on-demand prices for Nvidia GPUs by 17% to 21%: the H100 rises to $4.50 an hour from $3.85, the H200 to $5.40 from $4.50, the B200 to $8.50 from $7.15 and the B300 to $9.50. AMD EPYC Genoa CPU pricing rises 25% and memory pricing rises 41%. It is the company's second price increase in several months, after an average 29% hike for on-demand capacity and 51% for spot capacity in May.

Price increases on older chips are the key signal. Nebius is lifting prices on H100s, a chip first introduced in 2022. Raising rental rates on four-year-old hardware tells the market that AI compute demand is outrunning supply across every generation, not just the newest Blackwell parts. That undercuts the central bear argument against neoclouds, which holds that GPU rental prices will fall as capacity floods the market.

The stock has not yet priced that fully. At $233.24, NBIS sits 18.6% below its all-time closing high of $286.69 from June 18, 2026, and was down 27% over three months as of last week, even while still up more than 150% year to date.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. Nebius combines triple-digit growth, a 41% EBITDA margin, $9 billion-plus of customer prepayments and demonstrated pricing power. That supports a return to the $286.69 record, 22.9% above the current price, as the October 1 price increase lands and formal 2027 guidance approaches. The risks are rate sensitivity, a $20 billion to $25 billion capex budget and funding needs. A close below the 20-day average near $219.67 would signal the rebound is stalling.

Price Action: From $209.37 to $244.50 and Back to $233.24

The recent path shows a stock regaining momentum after a sharp summer correction. NBIS closed at $209.37 on September 16. On September 17, shares jumped 9.14% to $228.51 in premarket trading on reports of the GPU price increase. Peers followed, with CoreWeave up 6.1% and IREN up 5.1% in premarket trade. The price hike lifted the entire neocloud group.

Tuesday extended the move. On September 22, Nebius climbed 5.03% to $244.50, outperforming the technology sector, which gained 0.2%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.47%. At that level, NBIS traded 10.8% above its 20-day simple moving average of $219.67 and 50.2% above its 200-day average of $162.11. From the $209.37 close on September 16 to the $244.50 intraday high on September 22, the stock gained 16.8% in four sessions.

Wednesday brought the pause. At $233.24, down 1.22%, NBIS has given back $11.26 from Tuesday's intraday high, a 4.6% retracement. That is a shallow pullback after a 16.8% four-day run, particularly on a day when rising yields hit every long-duration growth stock.

The summer range frames the volatility. Between late July and late August, NBIS traded as high as $280.83 and as low as $145.80. The stock gained 34% in premarket trading on August 12 after the second-quarter report, one of the sharpest post-earnings moves in the AI group. A $135 range in a single month shows how violently the stock moves on sentiment.

The longer-term record is extraordinary. A $10,000 investment in Nebius when it returned to trading in 2024 is worth about $105,000 now. The stock has multiplied roughly tenfold since relisting.

The peer tape on Wednesday was mixed. CoreWeave traded at $87.20, up 0.51%, on 5.3 million shares in the first half hour, with a 52-week range of $60.55 to $153.20 and a 52-week decline of 34.96%. Nvidia slipped 0.43% to $227.88. NBIS underperformed CoreWeave slightly on the day but has vastly outperformed it over the year.

The level for the rest of the session is $236.12, Tuesday's approximate close. A recovery above it would erase Wednesday's dip. A close near $230 or lower would mark a larger reversal from Tuesday's intraday high.

Technical Structure: $219.67 Support, $286.69 Record, $162.11 Long-Term Floor

The chart has turned constructive after a steep correction. NBIS fell from its $286.69 record close on June 18 to the $145.80 area during the late-July AI sell-off, a drawdown of 49%. The stock has since recovered to $233.24, retracing 67% of that decline.

The moving averages define the trend. NBIS trades above its 20-day simple moving average of $219.67 and far above its 200-day average of $162.11. A stock trading 44% above its 200-day average remains in a long-term uptrend. The 20-day average is the first support for the current leg.

Resistance is layered above. The first level is $236.12, Tuesday's close. Above that, $244.50, Tuesday's intraday high, then $250 as a round number. The major resistance zone sits between $280.83, the late-July high, and $286.69, the all-time closing high. A daily close above $286.69 would put Nebius in price discovery.

Support is layered below. The first line is $219.67, the 20-day average. Below that, $209.37, the September 16 close before the price-hike news, then $200 as a round number. The 200-day average at $162.11 is the long-term floor. A break toward that level would require a broad collapse in AI infrastructure sentiment.

The retracement math frames the risk. The move from $209.37 to $244.50 measures $35.13. A 38.2% retracement lands at $231.08, a 50% retracement at $226.94, and a 61.8% retracement at $222.79. Wednesday's $233.24 has not yet reached even the shallowest level. A pullback to $227 to $231 would be a normal reset within the new uptrend.

Leveraged ETF flows add volatility. NBIS makes up 50.91% of the Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF (NBIG), and large inflows or outflows in that fund can translate into buying or selling of the underlying shares. Leveraged products amplify daily swings, particularly on high-volume days.

The trading range for the rest of the week runs from $219.67 to $250. A close above $250 targets $280.83. A close below $219.67 opens $209.37.

Q2 2026: $582.3 Million Revenue, $236 Million EBITDA, 77% Gross Margin

The second-quarter report showed a company scaling faster than almost any peer. Group revenue rose 454% year over year to $582 million, and Nebius AI revenue rose 514% to $575 million, 98% of the total. The core AI cloud business now accounts for nearly all of Nebius's revenue.

Profitability improved sharply. Group adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million, compared with a loss of $21 million in the same quarter last year and $129.5 million in the first quarter, and the adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 41% from 32% in the prior quarter. A nine-point margin expansion in one quarter reflects both scale and pricing.

Gross margin reached 77% against 74% in the first quarter. For a capital-intensive infrastructure business, a 77% gross margin is exceptional. It reflects high utilization of deployed GPUs and pricing that has moved higher faster than costs.

Cash flow is strong because customers pay up front. Operating cash flow reached $2.2 billion, driven again by customer prepayments. Customer prepayments will bring in more than $9 billion this year, reducing the need for outside financing. Prepayments are the key funding innovation in Nebius's model: customers finance a large share of the buildout in exchange for guaranteed capacity.

Capital spending is enormous. Second-quarter capex reached roughly $5.7 billion. For the full year, Nebius guides capex of $20 billion to $25 billion. That is roughly seven times this year's revenue guidance at the midpoint. The business model depends on converting that capex into high-margin revenue over multi-year contracts.

GAAP earnings are volatile. Net income from continuing operations swung from $502.5 million in the second quarter of 2025 to a loss of $190.4 million in the second quarter of 2026, though first-half net income rose 8% to $430.8 million. The GAAP line includes large non-operating items from Nebius's investment stakes and depreciation on newly deployed capacity. Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow are the better measures of the core business.

Guidance was reaffirmed. Nebius reaffirmed 2026 ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion, group revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin near 40% and capex of $20 billion to $25 billion. Capacity deployed late in the second quarter will contribute revenue in the third quarter. Formal 2027 guidance will come later this year, with expectations for higher capacity deployment and pricing.

ARR and Capacity: $3.0 Billion Now, $7 to $9 Billion by Year-End, 5 GW Contracted

Annualized run-rate revenue is the metric that drives the stock. ARR reached $3.0 billion at the end of June, up 598% year over year and 56% from the first quarter. Nebius calculates ARR as AI cloud revenue from the final month of the quarter multiplied by 12. It is a forward-looking measure of revenue capacity.

The path to the year-end target is steep. With ARR at $3.0 billion in June and guidance calling for $7 billion to $9 billion by December, Nebius needs to add $4 billion to $6 billion of ARR in six months. Most of this year's capacity was always set to come online in the second half. The ARR ramp depends on bringing new data centers and GPUs online on schedule.

Contracted power keeps rising. Nebius raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts, positioning to deploy more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity annually from 2027. Three months earlier, management lifted the year-end target from above 3 gigawatts to above 4 gigawatts. Nebius continues to secure power faster than its own guidance can keep up.

Connected power is the near-term constraint. The company guides year-end 2026 connected power of 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt. Contracted power is secured but not yet built; connected power is live and generating revenue. The gap between 5 gigawatts contracted and roughly 1 gigawatt connected shows the scale of the buildout ahead.

The revenue yield per megawatt sets the upside. Nebius's core AI cloud business won deals averaging above $20 million in revenue per megawatt, driven by rising prices for new-generation GPUs and more than 30% higher pricing on older GPUs versus the first quarter. At $20 million per megawatt, 1 gigawatt of connected power implies $20 billion of annual revenue capacity. At $25 million, the figure reaches $25 billion.

Management could sell out 2027 today. Nebius says it could sell its entire 2027 capacity on current terms of $20 million to $25 million per megawatt, with upfront payments covering 50% to 60% of associated capex, but is choosing not to. It is holding back some capacity for shorter-term premium contracts.

The ARR math frames the valuation. At the midpoint of the $7 billion to $9 billion target, year-end ARR of $8 billion would be 2.7 times the June level. If Nebius hits the top of the connected-power range and prices hold, 2027 ARR could run far higher. Formal 2027 guidance, due later this year, is the single largest scheduled catalyst for the stock.

Pricing Power: The October 1 Hike and the May Precedent

Pricing is the most important new data point in the Nebius story. From October 1, Nebius will raise the H100 hourly rate 16.9% to $4.50 from $3.85, the H200 20% to $5.40 from $4.50, and the B200 about 18.9% to $8.50 from $7.15. The B300 rises 21% to $9.50. CPU pricing for AMD EPYC Genoa climbs 25% to $0.015 per vCPU-hour, while memory pricing rises 41% to $0.0045 per GiB-hour.

This is the second increase in a short span. In May, Nebius raised prices by an average of 29% for on-demand capacity and 51% for spot capacity. The B300 rate has climbed about 56% from its pre-May level of roughly $6.10 an hour. Two rounds of double-digit price increases within five months show a market where demand is outrunning supply.

The H100 increase carries special weight. Nebius is raising rental rates on H100s, chips first introduced in 2022, which shows AI chips are holding their value despite concerns about falling prices. The bear case for neoclouds rests on the assumption that older GPUs lose value quickly as new generations arrive. A 16.9% price increase on four-year-old hardware contradicts that assumption.

The auction data confirms it. Nebius launched a capacity auction that cleared at a record price 15% above previous highs for Blackwell chips. When customers bid up capacity in an open auction, the price reflects real scarcity rather than list-price posturing.

The peer group is moving the same way. CoreWeave raised prices by about 25% across SKUs in July. After Nebius announced its increases, CoreWeave followed with commentary that it continued to contract new compute capacity at higher rates. Industry-wide price increases point to a supply-demand imbalance across the neocloud market.

The revenue impact will be gradual. Much of Nebius's revenue comes from large long-term contracts with custom pricing, so on-demand price increases will not flow fully into near-term results. The October 1 increase affects on-demand and spot capacity directly, while long-term contracts reprice as they renew. The signal matters more than the immediate revenue.

For the forecast, pricing power is the strongest bull argument. A company raising prices 17% to 21% across its fleet while growing revenue 454% has both volume and price working in its favour. That combination supports margin expansion beyond the current 41% adjusted EBITDA level.

Deal Flow: Four $1 Billion-Plus Contracts, Microsoft and Meta

Nebius's customer base now includes the largest buyers of AI compute. Nebius closed four landmark AI cloud deals in the second quarter averaging over $1 billion each, with upfront payments covering 50% to 60% of associated capex. Deal sizes and new customer counts set records.

The upfront payment structure is the core of the model. When customers prepay half or more of the capex needed to serve them, Nebius reduces its external funding needs and locks in revenue. The company has described its approach as building ahead of contracts and choosing when to sell, to whom and on what terms.

The hyperscaler contracts anchor the base. A significant share of Nebius capacity is tied to Microsoft and Meta at lower rates, while more recent contracts carry substantially better economics. Those anchor deals provide volume and credibility but dilute the average yield per megawatt. Newer contracts at $20 million to $25 million per megawatt carry higher margins.

Meta's spending is a double-edged factor. Meta could spend $62 billion with CoreWeave and Nebius and then become their competitor. Meta's capex guidance of $130 billion to $145 billion this year includes large commitments to outside cloud capacity while it builds its own data centers. That makes Meta a major customer today and a potential in-house competitor tomorrow.

Short-term premium contracts add margin. Nebius sells shorter-duration capacity, typically up to six months, to customers with immediate needs who pay a significant premium. By keeping some capacity out of long-term contracts, Nebius captures spot-market pricing when demand spikes.

The asset-light model extends reach. Nebius introduced an asset-light partnership model in which partners own AI infrastructure built to Nebius standards, while Nebius converts that partner-financed capacity into high-margin revenue with minimal capital outlay. That model reduces capital intensity and addresses the funding concerns that have weighed on the stock.

The demand backdrop remains strong. Nvidia's CEO has said a 1-gigawatt facility is worth $50 billion to $60 billion. Google announced a record $15 billion AI infrastructure investment in Europe in September. Hyperscaler capex across the industry continues to rise, and neoclouds absorb overflow demand.

For the forecast, deal flow supports the growth trajectory. Four $1 billion-plus deals in one quarter, with upfront funding, show that Nebius can win large contracts on favourable terms. Another major contract announcement would be a significant positive catalyst.

Valuation: 17.7x Current ARR, 6.7x Year-End ARR Target

Nebius's valuation looks stretched on current revenue and reasonable on forward ARR. The company carried a market value near $53.2 billion heading into this week, compared with CoreWeave at $38.6 billion. On that base, Nebius trades at 17.7 times its $3.0 billion June ARR.

Forward ARR changes the picture. Against the year-end ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, the same market value implies 5.9 to 7.6 times ARR, or 6.7 times at the $8 billion midpoint. Against 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, the multiple runs 15.6 to 17.7 times. The gap between trailing and forward multiples shows how much of the valuation rests on hitting the second-half ramp.

The EBITDA margin supports a premium. A 41% adjusted EBITDA margin on $582.3 million of quarterly revenue implies an annualized EBITDA run rate near $944 million from the second quarter alone. If year-end ARR reaches $8 billion at a 40% margin, annualized EBITDA would approach $3.2 billion. At $53.2 billion, that would put Nebius near 17 times forward run-rate EBITDA, a moderate multiple for a company growing revenue at triple-digit rates.

The CoreWeave comparison is revealing. CoreWeave reported second-quarter revenue of $2.575 billion, up 112.3%, with a backlog near $104 billion, but carries total liabilities of $72.05 billion against $5.02 billion in shareholders' equity. CoreWeave is larger by revenue but far more leveraged. Nebius's higher valuation relative to revenue reflects faster growth, stronger margins and a balance sheet funded more by customer prepayments than debt.

Price targets follow from the ARR multiple. At 7.5 times an $8 billion year-end ARR, the market value would reach $60 billion. At 8.5 times, it would reach $68 billion. Scaling the $53.2 billion base to those levels implies share-price gains of 13% to 28% from the valuation reference point, consistent with a path back to the $286.69 record.

The valuation risk is execution. If Nebius misses the connected-power target or the ARR ramp slips into 2027, the forward multiple would compress quickly. The stock's 49% drawdown from June to July showed how fast the market can de-rate AI infrastructure names on sentiment alone.

For the forecast, the valuation is justified if the second-half ramp delivers. At 6.7 times forward ARR with a 40% margin target, Nebius is priced for execution, not perfection.

Competition: CoreWeave, IREN and Hyperscaler Captive Fleets

Nebius competes in a crowded but supply-constrained market. Both Nebius and CoreWeave compete for the same Nvidia GPU allocation, similar hyperscaler and AI-lab customers, and gigawatt-scale power. The competition is less about price and more about securing chips, power and data center space fast enough to meet demand.

CoreWeave is the largest pure-play rival. With second-quarter revenue of $2.575 billion and a $104 billion backlog, CoreWeave has more than four times Nebius's revenue. Its stock has struggled, down 34.96% over 52 weeks at $87.20, as investors focus on its leverage. Nebius has outperformed CoreWeave on the stock market by a wide margin.

IREN and other neoclouds follow the same pattern. IREN rose 5.1% in premarket trading when Nebius announced its price increases. The neocloud group trades together on industry-wide news, which amplifies both rallies and sell-offs.

The bear thesis centers on unit economics. A bearish view on the neocloud group argues that falling GPU rental prices, hyperscalers scaling captive fleets and rising financing costs on multi-billion-dollar buildouts will eventually compress returns. The key question is whether economics remain attractive as the market scales, not whether demand is real. Nebius's price increases directly contradict the first leg of that argument for now.

Hyperscaler captive fleets are the long-term threat. Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon are all building their own AI infrastructure at record scale. Meta's capex guide of $130 billion to $145 billion and Google's $15 billion European investment show how much in-house capacity is coming. As hyperscalers bring their own capacity online, demand for neocloud overflow could weaken.

Nebius's differentiation is its software and platform. Nebius serves the full AI workload lifecycle on one platform, as training and inference converge, unlike standalone inference providers. The company has also emphasized an open ecosystem that gives customers data control and avoids vendor lock-in. A full-stack platform with managed services commands higher margins than raw GPU rental.

The Nvidia relationship matters. Nebius has a strategic alliance with Nvidia to support its cloud expansion. Nvidia's investment portfolio has grown to $99 billion, including stakes across the AI infrastructure ecosystem. Access to GPU allocation is the single most important competitive factor for neoclouds.

For the forecast, competition is not yet limiting Nebius. Price increases, record auction prices and the ability to sell out 2027 capacity show supply remains the constraint. The competitive risk rises in 2027 and 2028 as hyperscaler captive capacity comes online.

Funding and Capex: $20 to $25 Billion a Year and $9 Billion of Prepayments

Funding is the central risk in the Nebius story. The company guides 2026 capex of $20 billion to $25 billion, roughly seven times its revenue guidance. Nebius shares fell 10% at one point amid concerns over funding needs and its asset-light strategy. Investors worry that a company spending that heavily will need to raise large amounts of equity or debt.

Customer prepayments are the answer. Nebius expects customer prepayments of more than $9 billion this year, reducing the need for outside financing. Operating cash flow reached $2.2 billion in the second quarter, driven by prepayments. When customers fund 50% to 60% of the capex required to serve them, Nebius's external funding need shrinks dramatically.

The math on the remaining gap is manageable. With capex of $20 billion to $25 billion and more than $9 billion of prepayments, Nebius needs to fund $11 billion to $16 billion from other sources this year. Long-term contracts with investment-grade customers provide a strong base for asset-backed financing. Contracted revenue from creditworthy customers can be borrowed against at lower rates than unsecured corporate debt.

The asset-light model reduces future capital intensity. Under the partnership model, partners fully own the AI infrastructure assets, while Nebius converts partner-financed capacity into high-margin revenue with minimal capital outlay. If that model scales, Nebius can grow revenue faster than its own capex.

Rising rates increase funding costs. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.058% on Wednesday. Asset-backed and project financing prices off Treasury yields, so every basis point higher raises Nebius's cost of capital. The bear thesis on neoclouds explicitly cites rising financing costs as a key pressure.

Nebius's legacy stakes offer optional funding. The company owns Avride, which develops autonomous driving and delivery robots, and TripleTen, an edtech platform, and holds stakes in Toloka and ClickHouse. Monetizing those stakes could provide non-dilutive capital.

Insider selling is a minor signal. Director John Boynton executed a stock sale on September 17. Insider sales can reflect personal financial planning rather than a view on the company, but they draw attention during a period of funding concern.

For the forecast, funding is a manageable risk. Customer prepayments, investment-grade contracts and the asset-light model give Nebius more funding options than most neocloud peers. The risk rises sharply only if prepayments slow or credit markets tighten further.

Macro Headwinds: A 58.4 PMI, 5.058% Yields and an October Hike in Play

Nebius is highly sensitive to rates through valuation and funding. The U.S. composite PMI jumped to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, both five-year highs, and input costs rose at the fastest pace since October 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.058% and the 2-year rose almost 10 basis points to 4.874%. October Fed hike odds climbed above 53%.

Higher rates hit Nebius in two ways. First, they raise the discount rate on future cash flows, which compresses valuations for long-duration growth companies. Second, they raise the cost of the debt and asset-backed financing that funds part of Nebius's $20 billion to $25 billion capex program. Both effects work against the stock.

The AI trade has absorbed the rate shock so far. After the Fed's September 16 hike, the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose more than 14% in five sessions and the Nasdaq 100 posted a record close on Tuesday. Nvidia's blowout earnings in late August added more than $400 billion to its market value. AI infrastructure demand has been strong enough to overpower rate headwinds.

Wednesday tested that resilience. The Nasdaq fell 1.06%, Nvidia slipped 0.43% and communication services fell more than 1%. NBIS's 1.22% decline tracked the Nasdaq closely. The stock is not immune to rate shocks, but it is not falling harder than the index either.

Consumer AI is creating new demand. Meta's Muse agent reached 2.8 million downloads in its first 12 days and 448,000 daily users. Consumer AI products at that scale require inference capacity, which feeds demand for GPU cloud providers. Meta is both a major Nebius customer and an indicator of downstream AI demand.

The policy calendar adds volatility. The U.S.-China summit, with President Xi Jinping's first visit to Washington in 11 years, puts AI and technology export policy on the agenda. Any change in chip export rules could affect GPU supply for global cloud providers. The Fed's October 28 decision will set the rate path into year-end.

For the forecast, the 10-year yield is the key macro input. A close back below 5% would support a push toward $250 and $280.83. A sustained move toward 5.15% with October hike odds above 70% would likely pull NBIS back toward $209.37 regardless of company news.

Nebius Stock Price Forecast: $286.69 Target, $219.67 Support, Verdict

The forecast breaks into three scenarios, each keyed to execution on the second-half capacity ramp, pricing and rates.

The bull case targets $286.69, the all-time closing high, 22.9% above the current price, with $300 as an extension. It requires the October 1 price increase to take effect without customer pushback, third-quarter ARR to show clear progress toward the $7 billion to $9 billion target, formal 2027 guidance to confirm more than 1 gigawatt of new annual capacity, and the 10-year yield to ease below 5%. A daily close above $250 would signal continuation, and a close above $280.83 would open the record. Another $1 billion-plus contract would add fuel. This path carries a 40% probability.

The base case is consolidation between $215 and $255 into the third-quarter report. Rates stay elevated near 5%, the price increase lands as expected, and the stock waits for hard ARR data. Buyers defend the 20-day average near $219.67, and sellers cap rallies near $244.50 to $250. This path carries a 40% probability.

The bear case targets $200, then $185, 14.3% and 20.7% below the current price. It requires a rate shock that pushes the 10-year toward 5.15%, October Fed hike odds above 70%, delays in bringing capacity online, or renewed funding concerns. A daily close below $219.67 would weaken the trend, and a close below $209.37 would erase the price-hike rally. The 200-day average at $162.11 is the deep floor. This path carries a 20% probability.

Levels to trade: resistance at $236.12, $244.50, $250, $280.83 and $286.69. Support at $231.08, $226.94, $219.67, $209.37, $200 and $162.11.

The verdict on Nebius for September 23 is bullish. NBIS slipped 1.22% to $233.24 on a day the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.058% and the Nasdaq fell 1.06%, a modest pullback after a 16.8% four-session run. The fundamentals are exceptional: second-quarter revenue up 454% to $582.3 million, ARR up 598% to $3.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $236 million at a 41% margin, 77% gross margin, four $1 billion-plus deals, 5 gigawatts of contracted power and more than $9 billion of customer prepayments this year. The October 1 price increase of 17% to 21% across H100, H200, B200 and B300 GPUs, including a 16.9% rise on four-year-old H100s, shows demand still outrunning supply. The risks are real, including $20 billion to $25 billion of capex, rising financing costs and future hyperscaler captive capacity. Buy dips toward $227 to $231 and the 20-day average near $219.67, target a return to $286.69, and use a close below $209.37 as the risk marker.

That's TradingNEWS