Restaurant Brands Stock Price Forecast - QSR Near $69: Dividend Cash Machine Behind The Burger King Turnaround

NYSE:QSR – Where The Stock Really Stands Now

NYSE:QSR Price, Range And Implied Expectations

Restaurant Brands International NYSE:QSR trades around $68.71 after a weak session, down about 1.2% on the day and below the recent peak near $73.70. The 52-week range runs from roughly $58.71 to $73.70, so the stock sits in the upper half of its band but with clear room back to the highs. At this level the group carries a market value of about $22.5B, a trailing P/E near 24.5x, and an indicated dividend yield of ~3.6%. On consensus EPS around $4.0–4.1 for the next 12 months, the forward multiple is in the high-teens, cheaper than many global consumer names that are growing slower and paying out less cash. The market is pricing NYSE:QSR as a solid compounder, not as a hyper-growth story, despite brand momentum and margin expansion across its core banners. For live pricing and intraday moves, the stock is tracked on TradingNews QSR real-time chart.

Multi-Brand Engine Behind NYSE:QSR Revenue And Cash Flow

Restaurant Brands International runs four main restaurant platforms: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, plus the international and “Restaurant Holdings” segments. The economic model leans heavily on franchising, property and supply-chain revenues, with a smaller but important block of company-operated units. In Q3 2025, total revenue reached about $2.45B, up 6.5% year over year from around $2.29B. That pace beat the author projections in the original notes and came in ahead of the 5% growth line that many investors had penciled in at mid-year. Tim Hortons provided about 46% of reported revenue, Burger King delivered a large share of the rest, while Popeyes and Firehouse Subs supplied faster but smaller growth. The structure is deliberate: high-volume, established banners throwing off cash, and younger concepts providing incremental upside through system growth and mix.

Tim Hortons Under NYSE:QSR – Defensive Cash Generator With Real Comp Power

Tim Hortons is the stability pillar for NYSE:QSR. In Q3, system-wide comps for Tim Hortons printed around 4.8%, compared with 2.7% year-to-date and about 2.4% in the prior-year Q3. The brand’s core market is Canada, and management says Tim Hortons is outperforming Canadian quick-service peers by roughly 300 bps on comparable sales. Average sales per Tim Hortons restaurant advanced from roughly $433,400 to about $447,700 year over year, while the store count nudged up from 4,504 to 4,532. That pattern – modest net openings, rising per-unit volumes – is what you want from a mature, cash-rich concept. The mix shift is important as well. Tim Hortons is not only a morning coffee box. Evening bundles around $8.99 and grab-and-go menu items such as Loaded Croissant offers are driving traffic in non-breakfast dayparts. In a still-stressed Canadian consumer backdrop, Tim Hortons functions as a low-ticket habit, which gives NYSE:QSR a defensive revenue stream with attractive incremental margins, especially because RBI controls a large piece of the supply chain and real estate for this business.

Burger King Under NYSE:QSR – Turnaround That Is Finally Showing Up In The Numbers

Burger King is the swing line item that can move the equity. After years of lagging McDonald’s and Wendy’s, the U.S. business is now posting comps that close – and in the latest quarter actually reverse – that gap. In Q3, Burger King delivered roughly 3.1% global comparable sales and about 3.2% comps in the U.S., versus 1.2% growth year-to-date. System-wide sales at Burger King increased from about $2.891B to $2.956B, even though the company cut store count from around 7,119 to 7,043 as part of a clean-up of weaker locations. Average sales per Burger King restaurant rose from approximately $406,096 to $419,708. That combination – fewer units, more volume per unit – confirms the “Reclaim the Flame” capital and marketing plan is working where it counts: unit-level metrics. Revenue recognized by RBI from Burger King climbed around 7% year over year to roughly $387M, and segment adjusted operating margin hit about 31.8%, up roughly 90 bps. On comps, the chain beat McDonald’s U.S. growth of about 2.4% and left Wendy’s negative -4.7% same-store sales far behind. For NYSE:QSR, this is a material shift. Instead of subsidizing a weak U.S. burger chain, the group now owns a brand that is gaining back some ground and expanding margins at the same time.

International Platform – High-Growth Layer On Top Of Core Banners

The international division is less visible in headlines but delivers some of the best growth inside NYSE:QSR. In Q3 2025, international comparable sales reached about 6.5%, accelerating from roughly 4.5% over the year-to-date period. Franchisee-led development across Europe and key emerging markets is underpinning that performance. Markets like France, the U.K., Spain and Germany are now outpacing their local quick-service industries on comps. Growth here is driven less by deep discounting and more by product and marketing innovation. Campaigns such as Baby Burger Boxes in France as a shareable snack, the Gordon Ramsay Wagyu burger using 100% British Wagyu beef in the U.K., and cross-market promotions with global IP like Naruto in Germany, Brazil and China show that NYSE:QSR can execute premium, culturally relevant launches at scale. Because these markets are heavily franchised, incremental system-wide sales in the international segment fall through at attractive margins, reinforcing the free-cash-flow story.

Popeyes And Firehouse Subs – Smaller But Strategic Growth Drivers For NYSE:QSR

Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and Firehouse Subs are still smaller contributors in dollar terms, but they matter for the long-term mix. Popeyes taps into global chicken demand and continues to build a footprint in Latin America and other regions where chicken is a structural staple. Firehouse Subs, which posted revenue growth of around 12% year over year in Q3, plays closer to the fast-casual sandwich space with premium deli meats and toppings. That allows RBI to participate in a higher-ticket, quality-focused segment instead of relying only on pure value menus. Both concepts are heavily franchised, so new units add royalty and supply-chain revenue to NYSE:QSR without requiring the same capital intensity as company-operated expansion. If Popeyes keeps comping positively and Firehouse continues to outgrow the group on revenue, these brands can steadily lift the enterprise growth rate above what Tim Hortons and Burger King would generate on their own.

Margin Profile And Operating Discipline At NYSE:QSR

Beyond brand-level stories, the key line for equity holders is margin. In Q3 2025, NYSE:QSR produced an operating margin of about 27.1%, up from roughly 25.2% a year earlier. Costs – food, paper, labor, occupancy, and marketing – rose, but the increase stayed broadly in line with revenue gains. The result is that each incremental dollar of sales is now more profitable than it was a year ago. Management has shown discipline on restaurant-level economics by closing unproductive Burger King sites, moderating promotions where elasticity is weak, and pushing technology investments that improve throughput and ticket size. The long-term growth plan calls for around 3% annual comp growth at the group level and more than 8% operating-income growth. Q3 performance, with consolidated comps around 4.2% and operating profit growth ahead of that, sits above that algorithm, even with macro headwinds still present.

Free Cash Flow, Dividend And Capital Allocation For NYSE:QSR

The quality of NYSE:QSR is evident in the cash numbers. Over the first three quarters of 2025, free cash flow reached roughly $996M after capex, up about 11% year over year. That implies an FCF-to-sales ratio of roughly 14%, very strong for a consumer platform. That cash funds three agendas at once. First, a cash dividend running near $2.48 per share annualized, or about 3.6% yield at current price. Second, capex for remodels and technology at Tim Hortons and Burger King, plus new units for high-growth franchises like Popeyes and Firehouse. Third, measured deleveraging of the balance sheet. The company has ample capacity to lean harder into debt paydown if conditions change. At today’s valuation, the market effectively gets a mid-single-digit growth profile plus a mid-single-digit cash yield, creating a base case high-single-digit return stream without assuming any re-rating.

Debt Load, Maturity Ladder And Rate Sensitivity At NYSE:QSR

Leverage is the main pushback on NYSE:QSR. Net debt stands around $2.9B, translating to a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the 4.4–4.7x range depending on the precise period used. That is high relative to industrials but typical for a franchise-heavy consumer platform with real estate backing and reliable royalty inflows. The crucial detail is the tenor. About 99% of total debt does not mature within the next 12 months, and roughly 40% carries maturities of four years or longer. That structure limits near-term refinancing risk and gives management flexibility to refinance or retire tranches as rates fall. With policy rates already cut by roughly 75 bps from the peak, blended funding costs should drift lower over time. Persistent free cash flow also offers optionality: if management decides to tilt more aggressively toward deleveraging, that 4-handle leverage ratio can move toward 3x over a few years without starving the business of growth capex or cutting the dividend.

Macro Backdrop, Competitive Pressure And Structural Risks For NYSE:QSR

Macro risk is not gone. Inflation has eased from the recent 3.0% spike to the 2.7% zone but remains positive, which means menu prices and operating costs continue to grind higher. Tariffs on inputs or equipment would add another layer of pressure. At some point, low-income consumers have to trade down in quantity, not just mix, if ticket inflation persists. The competitive field is crowded. Burger King fights McDonald’s, Wendy’s and a range of regional concepts. Tim Hortons sees pressure from global coffee chains and independent cafés. Fast-casual players like Chipotle and CAVA, even while dealing with their own cost issues, target the same lunch and dinner occasions. As their price points converge with fast food, the perceived value gap narrows. Over the longer term, health and regulation are structural risks. Burgers, fried chicken and sugary drinks will remain under scrutiny from regulators and activists. NYSE:QSR must keep evolving menus, adding lighter, higher-quality options, and possibly exploring adjacent categories that align better with health trends, particularly if governments move toward more aggressive labeling or taxes.

Valuation Scenarios For NYSE:QSR – How Much Upside The Numbers Justify

At about $68.71, NYSE:QSR is valued at 24.5x trailing earnings and in the 17–18x band on next-year EPS near $4.0–4.1. With a dividend yield of roughly 3.6%, even flat multiples would deliver high-single-digit total returns if EPS grows in the high-single-digits as guided. A simple dividend-discount approach using a payout of $2.48 per share and a dividend growth rate near 4% produces fair-value estimates around the low-to-mid $70s depending on the assumed cost of equity, which lines up with the $71–75 range implied in prior detailed modeling. That assumes no major positive surprise at Burger King U.S. and no significant uplift from the international segment beyond current run-rate. If Burger King keeps delivering U.S. comps above 3%, Tim Hortons continues to beat Canadian quick-service peers by a few hundred basis points, and international can sustain 6%+ comps, the market has reason to pay closer to 20x forward earnings. At that multiple on $4.10 EPS, the stock would trade closer to $82, which is well above the current quote and above the recent high.

Price Action And Technical Setup For NYSE:QSR

Technically, NYSE:QSR still trades inside a constructive trend despite the recent pullback. From the $58–60 base, the stock pushed above $73 before rolling over into the high-$60s. Most standard charts still show price above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which confirms that medium-term momentum remains positive. MACD has swung back into positive territory, indicating that fresh buying volume is again exceeding selling volume after the consolidation phase. RSI is mid-range, rising with price and not yet close to overbought, so there is room for another leg higher without technical exhaustion. Key support lies in the $64–65 region where prior resistance turned into a demand zone; first support sits in the high-$60s. Resistance is concentrated near $73–74, where sellers capped the last rally. A break above that band on healthy volume would confirm a resumed uptrend; failure at that zone would keep the stock oscillating inside a wide, yield-driven range.

Final View On NYSE:QSR – Rating, Bias And What Needs To Go Right

After folding in the latest numbers, brand performance and balance-sheet details, Restaurant Brands International NYSE:QSR screens as a Buy, not a hold or a short. Tim Hortons is comping ahead of the Canadian industry and lifting average sales per restaurant from $433K to $448K. Burger King U.S. has moved from structural laggard to a chain delivering 3%+ comps with margins improving toward 32%. International is adding 6.5% comp growth on an asset-light base. Free cash flow is near $1B with an FCF margin around 14%, and operating margin has expanded above 27%. Net leverage in the mid-4s is a real risk, but maturities are long-dated and coverage is strong. At roughly $68–69 per share, investors get a 3.6% cash yield, high-single-digit EPS growth, and realistic re-rating optionality if execution at Burger King and international remains on track. The stock is not mispriced enough for a “screaming bargain” label, but the risk-reward skew at today’s quote is clearly favorable to the long side.

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