Ripple XRP (XRP-USD) Struggles to Hold $3 as Volatility Mounts
Ripple’s XRP-USD has slipped from a weekly high of $3.15 to intraday lows of $2.94, its weakest level in nearly two weeks. At current pricing near $2.97, the token has dropped more than 5% in 24 hours, tracking broad weakness as Bitcoin retreated to $115,000 and Ethereum pulled back from multi-month highs. The correction follows July’s rally, where XRP surged from $2.30 to $3.65 but failed to sustain momentum above the $3.40 resistance.
Profit-Taking and Overbought Signals Trigger Correction
Nearly 94% of XRP supply remains in profit, a stretched condition historically followed by drawdowns. The Relative Strength Index has cooled from 70 in mid-July to 45 this week, while taker cumulative volume delta turned negative, confirming sellers outweigh buyers. Key support rests at $2.81, where 1.7 billion tokens were previously accumulated, followed by $2.70 and $2.24 if pressure builds.
Ripple Whales Step In With Massive Accumulation
Despite retail selling, whales absorbed more than $360 million in XRP during the recent dip, building on a prior spree where 320 million tokens worth nearly $1 billion were acquired in three days. This reduces liquid supply and signals longer-term conviction. Historically, such accumulation phases have preceded rebounds, with retail investors often following whale flows.
Institutional Adoption Anchors Long-Term Value
Ripple’s XRP Ledger continues to expand in global payments. Partnerships in Latin America and the Middle East push cross-border transaction volumes higher, while Ripple targets displacing SWIFT in settlement infrastructure. CEO Brad Garlinghouse stresses reducing settlement times as a strategic priority, reinforcing XRP’s utility beyond speculation.
Technical Picture: Range-Bound With Clear Triggers
XRP trades between $2.81 and $3.30, with upside only unlocked if bulls clear $3.26, paving a path back to $3.65 and potentially $3.90. A decisive close under $3.00 would increase risk toward $2.60 and even $2.24 if momentum worsens. The 50-day EMA at $2.94 and the 200-day SMA at $2.45 remain pivotal markers.
Comparisons to Ethereum’s Historic Rally
Analysts note XRP’s structure mirrors Ethereum’s 2016–2018 breakout, where ETH coiled for months before a parabolic run. XRP’s weekly candlestick compression near $3 resembles that setup, with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2.80 providing a potential launchpad. Holding that level could ignite a surge toward $5–$6.
Macro Drivers: Geopolitics, Fed Policy, and Regulatory Clarity
Trump’s comments on Ukraine–Russia talks added volatility, while markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Traders now price an 85% chance of a September rate cut, a dollar-weakening dynamic supportive for crypto. Regulatory clarity also improves after Ripple’s SEC battle concluded, clearing barriers for U.S. banks and fintechs to adopt XRP.
Price Forecasts: Divided Between Bullish Targets and Deeper Pullback
Forecasts diverge: Standard Chartered sees $5.50 by 2025, $8.00 in 2026, and $12.50 in 2028. Ali Martinez warns of a slide to $2.60 or even $2.10 if bulls fail to reclaim $3.30. Rose Premium Signals points to $4.67 by November if Fibonacci levels hold. Some retail cases extend as high as $10–$13 on a breakout supported by ETF inflows and broader crypto strength.
Scenario One: ETF Inflows Resume and Dollar Weakens
If U.S. crypto ETFs reopen their inflow momentum and September’s Fed cut materializes, dollar pressure would ease while liquidity flows back into risk assets. In this setup, XRP-USD could reclaim $3.30, retesting the July high at $3.65 and aiming for $3.90. A confirmed breakout would then open the $5.00 psychological level, especially as whales continue to absorb supply. Standard Chartered’s $5.50 target by 2025 becomes realistic in this case.
Scenario Two: Powell Signals Hawkishness at Jackson Hole
If Powell signals that inflation risks remain sticky, the market may scale back its 85% priced-in probability of a September rate cut. That would strengthen the dollar and trigger risk aversion, sending crypto flows lower. Under this outcome, XRP could lose its $3.00 foothold, falling back to $2.70, and in an extended selloff, the capitulation floor near $2.24 could be tested. Short-term traders would face significant downside risk in this macro scenario.
Final Verdict: Hold XRP-USD at $2.97 With Leaning Accumulation Bias
At current levels near $2.97, XRP sits on a knife’s edge: macro pressures cap upside, while whale accumulation and regulatory clarity provide strong floors. Technically, the $2.81–$3.00 range is pivotal. For long-term investors with a 12–24 month horizon, this looks like a Hold with a mild bias toward accumulation, given institutional adoption, the SEC overhang removal, and ETF tailwinds. Short-term traders, however, should treat $3.30 as the breakout trigger before committing heavier capital.
