Ripple XRP (XRP-USD) consolidates near $3 as whales sell into resistance
Ripple’s XRP-USD trades at $3.05, showing intraday gains of 1.5%, but the structure underneath is fragile. The token failed to hold the $3.10–$3.20 breakout zone and now sits within a tight range of $2.96–$3.07, with market cap at $180 billion and 24-hour trading volume of $6.01 billion. The rejection at $3.40 and the sharp reversal from the multi-year high of $3.66 has shifted sentiment, with technical indicators, whale flows, and ledger activity all flashing warning signs.
XRP technical setup: descending triangle and bearish flag patterns
On the daily chart, XRP has been forming a descending triangle since the rally to $3.66, with a flat support near $2.70 and lower highs pressing downward. The attempted breakout above $3.00 turned into a fakeout, leaving resistance stacked at $3.05–$3.15. A bear flag on the same timeframe points to further downside, with measured targets around $2.40–$2.06, implying a 20–31% correction from current prices. Moving averages provide context: the 50-day SMA at $3.00 must be reclaimed to neutralize the bearish setup, while the 200-day SMA at $2.50 is the next critical support if breakdown follows.
Short-term trading levels: support and resistance clusters
Intraday action shows $2.95 as the pivot for immediate momentum. Holding above $3.00 could fuel short bursts to $3.08 and $3.15, but consistent closes above $3.13 are needed to validate a bullish turn. Below $2.95, the path opens to $2.85, and then $2.65, where a retest could trigger either capitulation or accumulation. The oscillators reflect indecision: RSI at 53.2 is neutral, stochastic at 71.7 leans near overbought, and ADX at 17.3 confirms weak trend strength. MACD remains marginally bullish at 0.0215, but momentum is already turning down at –0.201.
Whale activity: over $476 million in XRP sold into $3 rallies
Santiment data shows entities holding 1–10 million XRP reduced balances sharply, offloading more than 160 million XRP worth $476 million during the past two weeks. Supply controlled by these whales has fallen to a six-week low of 6.79 billion XRP, underscoring distribution pressure. Glassnode reports exchange reserves rising by 665 million XRP to 3.94 billion, suggesting inflows prepared for additional selling. Historically, such exchange balance surges have preceded local tops, adding to downside risk despite ETF approval speculation or broader Fed liquidity narratives.
Ledger and network activity declines weigh on sentiment
Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have collapsed from 50,482 in July to just 21,000 currently, a 58% drop. New wallet creation is also down, from 11,000 to 4,300 daily, signaling erosion in retail participation. This contraction reduces transaction volume and network liquidity, weakening bullish cases that rely on growing adoption. While fundamentals like fast settlement and institutional pilots remain intact, price action often tracks usage, and the current decline raises near-term caution.
Macro and regulatory backdrop provide mixed signals
The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, combined with institutional interest in altcoins, offer potential macro support. Former legal headwinds for Ripple have eased with progress in SEC disputes, which could open the door for ETF products. Still, the timing of approvals remains uncertain, and the broader crypto environment shows signs of profit-taking after Bitcoin’s stall near $116,000. Ripple’s $25 million RLUSD commitment to small-business lending highlights corporate engagement, but philanthropy alone is not a direct price catalyst.
