XRP Price Struggles at $2.80 Support as Shorts and Whale Transfers Drive Volatility
Whale moves of 30M+ XRP and rising short interest weigh on sentiment, but ETF prospects and institutional adoption provide a bullish long-term backdrop | That's TradingNEWS
XRP-USD Falls Below $3.00 as Bearish Pressure Builds
Ripple’s token XRP-USD has slipped to $2.80 after losing more than 22% in August, marking one of its sharpest monthly setbacks since March 2025. The decline of 5.35% on August 29 dragged its market cap down to $178 billion, with daily trading volume surging nearly 79% to $6.7 billion, a sign that selling is being met with strong participation. The monthly chart shows a 6% pullback despite a modest 3% gain on the weekly frame, leaving bulls defending a narrowing price range against heavy short positioning.
Short Position Liquidations Add to Downside Pressure
According to Coinglass data, liquidation volume reached $2.95 million, dominated by long positions worth $2.89 million against short contracts that exceeded 60,000 in count. This imbalance reflects traders leaning heavily on bearish bets, accelerating the move under $3.00. Short exposure has amplified downside velocity, with funding rates skewed negative and derivatives data pointing to further weakness.
Whale Transfers Intensify Market Speculation
A transfer of 30.5 million XRP ($91.4 million) to Coinbase fueled fears of an orchestrated sell-off. Large wallet movements historically precede spikes in volatility, and this instance was no exception, with price breaking down shortly after the transfer. Additionally, on-chain data flagged a separate 50 million XRP transaction (~$140 million) from co-founder Chris Larsen, sparking algorithmic selling that compounded intraday losses. Such whale activity highlights how XRP remains vulnerable to concentrated liquidity events.
Critical Technical Levels: $2.80 Support in Focus
Technically, XRP is compressed within a symmetrical triangle, capped by resistance near $3.05–$3.10 and anchored by support around $2.80–$2.76. Momentum indicators signal weakness: RSI has dropped to 40, not yet oversold but trending bearish, while MACD flattens near a bearish crossover. A breakdown under $2.80 risks retracement to $2.60, and in the extreme, a slide to $2.17 at the 50-week EMA. The longer-term Fibonacci retracement at $1.73 marks the key floor should $2.80 fail to hold. Conversely, reclaiming $3.10 could trigger upside toward $3.20 and $3.50, though this requires a decisive shift in momentum.
Regulatory Clarity Provides Long-Term Tailwind
Despite short-term volatility, Ripple’s settlement with the SEC removed a major overhang. XRP sales on exchanges are officially not securities, with Ripple agreeing to a reduced $50 million penalty. This resolution opens the door for broader institutional participation. Analysts place over 80% probability on a spot XRP ETF approval by year-end 2025, which could unlock billions in capital flows. Ripple’s cross-chain partnership with Cardano adds interoperability and strengthens its case as a settlement layer for institutional networks.
On-Chain Data and Market Flows
Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap identifies a cluster of 1.71 billion XRP acquired between $2.81 and $2.82, positioning this zone as pivotal support. A breach risks cascading profit-taking, especially since more than 90% of holders remain in profit. Exchange flows on August 29 showed $49.3 million in net outflows, suggesting distribution outweighs accumulation phases seen earlier this summer. This supply rotation indicates large holders are using rallies above $3.20 to reduce exposure.
Long-Term Outlook: ETF and Institutional Adoption as Catalysts
Despite short-term risks, 2025 remains transformative for XRP. After rallying more than 400% in a year, the token is consolidating just below multi-year highs. Institutional adoption is picking up, with Japanese gaming group Gumi purchasing 2.5 billion yen (~$17 million) worth of XRP, and new credit-card integrations boosting network utility. Analysts project medium-term targets between $3.50 and $5.00 in 2025, with long-term scenarios envisioning $10 if ETF approval and institutional demand coincide with broader crypto market strength.
Strategic Assessment: XRP-USD Buy, Sell, or Hold?
The XRP-USD chart shows immediate risk if $2.80 fails, with downside toward $2.60–$2.17 possible in September. Whale transfers, heavy short positioning, and a weakening MACD add to near-term caution. However, regulatory clarity, ETF prospects, and rising institutional use cases provide structural support that most altcoins lack. Given this balance, XRP at $2.80 is a Hold for existing investors awaiting ETF catalysts, but for new entrants it leans toward a speculative Buy on dips, with risk strictly defined at $2.60. Valuation risk exists, but the probability of an ETF and cross-border adoption keeps the long-term bullish thesis intact.
