Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Defends $80 Support While $118 Decides If the Rally Restarts

Solana (SOL-USD) Price – 40% Drawdown, $70–$80 Defense and Why $118 Now Controls the Upside

Solana (SOL-USD) – From a 40% Slide off $130 to an $80–$90 Stalemate

Solana (SOL-USD) has already taken a hit of roughly 40% from the January high around $130, but the market has refused to let it unravel straight through the floor. Current trading is clustered in the mid-$80s, with one snapshot putting price at about $87.16, up 1.65% in the last 24 hours, after flushing into a $76.54 intraday low and then clawing back above the 100-hour moving average. For roughly 12 days, SOL has been boxed between about $77 and $90, with every push into the $90 area sold and every dip toward $80–$82 bought. That price action is typical of a market that has finished the panic phase of the selloff and is now debating the next direction around a key equilibrium zone.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Critical Price Levels from $67 to $138

The entire structure of SOL-USD now revolves around a narrow stack of very specific levels. On the downside, the market has already signaled that $70–$72 matters: after the nearly 40% fall, Solana defended that psychological region and forced short-covering off lows in the $72–$75 band. Just above that, there is a practical floor around $75–$82. The $82 mark aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the bounce from $76.54 to $91.20, and is flagged repeatedly as the first level that must hold to keep the structure constructive; slipping through $82 reopens $78, then the $76.50 swing low, and ultimately another test of $72–$70. On the upside, the market has built a ceiling in the $90–$92 region. Solana has been capped under $90, with two consecutive intraday sell signals triggering right after tagging that zone, and the main resistance for a trend shift sits around $92, where a break would start pointing toward $95 and the psychological $100–$102 range. Above that, the real regime line is the $110–$118 band: Solana broke down through $118, and that break came with a surge in volume and volatility, so reclaiming $110.84–$118 would effectively cancel the breakdown signal and re-open space toward $130 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around $138.03. Below all of this sits the macro zero-Fib support in the $66.88–$67 region, which remains the structural floor if the current defense zones ever fail.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Bear Flag on 4H, Descending Channel on the Daily

Structurally, Solana is still in a downtrend even though the slope has softened. On the 4-hour chart, the drop from about $130 through $115 and down into the mid-$70s built a clean, impulsive leg lower. That leg has now transitioned into a rising, corrective channel, the classic profile of a bear flag. The lower boundary of that flag is sitting roughly near $84, while the upper boundary converges with resistance in the $88–$90 band. Volume has thinned out inside this structure and momentum is fading as price drifts higher into resistance, which fits the pattern of a corrective advance inside a larger bearish leg. A breakdown through the lower channel line around $84 would activate the measured-move target of the flag and point back toward $78, $75, and then into the $72–$70 zone. On the daily timeframe, SOL-USD trades inside a descending channel, printing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since the $130 peak. The correction has already pushed price under the 0.236 retracement at $110.84 and the 0.382 at $138.03, confirming that this is a structural reset of the prior uptrend rather than a shallow pullback. The macro support around $66.88 marks the other side of that channel and would be the last major line of defense if $70 ever fails.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Momentum Reset: Weekly RSI Sub-30 and MACD Still Below Zero

Momentum indicators are showing a late-stage correction rather than the start of a new impulsive downtrend. On the weekly chart, the RSI has dropped under 30, pushing into an oversold zone comparable to readings seen during the 2022 bear market, but it has done so while price is still holding above key horizontal levels. That combination – deeply compressed momentum above a solid set of supports – is typical of markets that are trying to finish a correction rather than begin another one. On the daily chart, the MACD is starting to curl upward after the sharp selling leg, signaling that negative momentum is weakening, but both MACD lines are still below the zero line, which confirms that the dominant trend is still down. The Directional Movement Index shows the negative directional line in charge with an elevated ADX, matching a strong but aging downtrend. None of this is a green light by itself, but it does tell you the move is entering the mature phase where downside risk and upside optionality start to converge.

Solana (SOL-USD) – On-Chain MVRV Pricing Bands Show Deep Discount, Not Euphoria

On-chain MVRV work reinforces the view that Solana is priced in the late stages of a correction, not near a top. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio has slipped into the “Extreme Lows” deviation band, which requires MVRV to sit below 0.8 for only about 5% of trading days, but Solana has spent roughly 26% of recent sessions under that threshold. Historically, this metric has been blunt but effective: peaks have formed when MVRV pushed above 3.0–3.5, especially during spikes into the 5–6 area, while major bottoms have formed when MVRV compressed into the 0.5–0.8 corridor. In late 2020 and early 2022, that zone preceded multi-month recoveries. Right now, SOL’s MVRV is hovering near 0.6, which puts it squarely in discount territory, far from the euphoric levels seen at prior peaks. That does not force a rally immediately – in 2022, Solana spent about 17 months depressed after similar MVRV readings – but it does show that the current drawdown has already repriced the asset to historically cheap levels rather than leaving it anywhere near froth.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Network Activity at Record Highs While Price Trades Below $100

While price has been retracing, underlying usage of the Solana network has accelerated. Transaction activity has pushed to new all-time highs, with one dataset recording 230.5 million transactions in a single week as SOL dropped below $118. That surge marked a 12-month peak in raw transaction count and was not a one-off spike: trading volumes relative to Solana’s market cap have risen from around 4% at the start of the year to about 14% recently, the second-highest weekly percentage reading in three years. Network usage has exceeded that of several competing ecosystems even as the token trades under $100 and roughly 40% below its recent highs. This kind of divergence – record throughput, sustained developer and user engagement, and depressed token price – is the profile that often underpins later rallies once broader liquidity returns. Fundamentals do not automatically drag price higher on a fixed timetable, but they do set the floor for what the asset can justify once risk appetite improves.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Transaction-Driven Volatility and the $118 Trigger Zone

The behavior around $118 is a critical reference for the next leg. When SOL-USD first broke down through the $118 support, transaction volumes exploded, and volatility spiked as leveraged positions unwound. On-chain data shows that trading volumes and network usage climbed sharply exactly as price cut through that level and then lost the $100 mark. That relationship turns $110–$118 into more than just a technical line; it is the zone where a large amount of forced activity took place. If Solana can climb back above $100 and then retake $110–$118 with sustained volume, the market will treat that as a clean invalidation of the breakdown, forcing shorts to reassess and inviting systematic flows back into the asset. If, instead, $118 acts as a hard cap on any recovery and repeated rejections cluster in that band, the market will treat the recent bounce as a bear-market rally inside a continuing downtrend.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Institutional Flows, ETFs and the $31 Million Inflow Signal

Flows into listed products and funds show that bigger money has quietly started to lean into Solana again. After four straight weeks of outflows, Solana-linked investment products flipped to net buying with about $31 million of inflows in a single week, at the same time that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) products were still being sold. A significant slice of those flows came from European allocators, who used Solana’s 40% drawdown and softer U.S. inflation data to rotate into the token as a high-beta recovery candidate. That shift is happening alongside the growth of Solana-focused funds and structured vehicles, and the expansion of publicly traded exposure via names like Sol Strategies ($STKE) and $FWDI, which are positioning themselves as gateways into the Solana ecosystem. None of these flows are yet large enough to overwhelm the broader market trend, but they are consistent with the pattern seen in previous cycles: institutional capital begins to accumulate while sentiment is still fragile and price is discounted, setting up the next leg once macro conditions turn.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Short-Term Trading Map Between $82, $85, $90 and $92

On short timeframes, SOL-USD is dealing with an extremely clean set of levels. Immediate support sits around $85, where buyers have already stepped in to defend the rising intraday channel and the 100-hour moving average. Just below that, $82 is the more important line: it is both a horizontal shelf and the 61.8% retracement of the bounce from $76.54 to $91.20. A break under $82 opens the path to $78, then the $76.50 swing low, and raises the odds of a full retest of $72–$70. On the upside, resistance lies first at $88, where the intraday rising channel currently tops out, then at $90, and finally at $92. The last rally into $90 produced two consecutive sell signals on the hourly chart and was followed by a drift lower, a setup that has already rewarded traders targeting a move back into the high-70s. A decisive hourly or 4H close above $92 would flip that short-term picture, invalidate the recent sell cluster and point toward $95 and $100–$102. The message is straightforward: above $92, bears lose control of the intraday tape; below $82, they regain momentum and aim at the mid-70s.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Medium-Term Scenarios and the Role of the $110–$118 Band

For medium-term positioning in Solana, the debate is much less about ticks between $85 and $90 and far more about whether the asset can hold its current floor and climb back into the $110–$118 band. The constructive path is clear: defend $80–$82, avoid any weekly close below $70–$72, reclaim $90–$92, then take back $100 and push into $110–$118. That sequence would turn the current move into a standard deep correction within a larger uptrend, with the January peak near $130 and the $138.03 retracement level back on the table over time. The bearish path is also straightforward: fail to clear $90–$92, slide through $82, lose $78 and $76.50, and eventually test $72–$70 and potentially the macro support at $66.88–$67. In that scenario, the downtrend channel on the daily chart remains intact, MVRV stays depressed for longer, and Solana spends an extended period in accumulation rather than quickly pivoting into a fresh trend.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Risk Factors, Invalidation Levels and What Would Break the Bull Case

Owning SOL-USD here means accepting several clear risks. The first is technical: as long as the 4H bear flag and the daily descending channel remain in place, any bounce that fails below $92 and then rolls over under $82 has to be treated as a continuation setup for another leg lower. The second is macro: broader crypto sentiment has already swung through phases of Extreme Fear, and another shock in Bitcoin or in risk assets generally could easily drag Solana back toward the $70 area or force a capitulation flush into the mid-60s. The third is structural: despite record network usage, valuations in high-beta Layer-1 assets can stay compressed for long periods if capital is rotating into other narratives. From a pure risk-management perspective, the bull case on this structure is invalidated on a sustained break below $70, with $66.88 being the last macro support before the chart opens up toward prior cycle congestion much lower. Conversely, the bear case is seriously compromised if Solana can trade back above $100 and hold weekly closes inside the $110–$118 band; at that point, the market would be forced to treat the present weakness as a completed reset rather than an ongoing unwind.

Solana (SOL-USD) – Verdict: High-Risk Buy with $70–$72 Invalidation and $110–$118 as the First Real Target

Putting all the data together, Solana (SOL-USD) screens as a high-risk Buy, not a neutral hold and not a straightforward short. Price is down roughly 40% from the $130 peak, the weekly RSI is in oversold territory, MVRV is sitting near 0.6 inside the Extreme Lows band, the network is processing record transaction volumes with weekly volume-to-market-cap metrics peaking around 14%, and institutional products have flipped from four weeks of outflows to about $31 million of inflows, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw capital exit. At the same time, the trend is still technically bearish on the daily chart, and the 4H structure is a bear flag until proven otherwise. That combination argues for a speculative buy with strict risk control, not blind dip-buying. The clean invalidation zone for that view sits at $70–$72; a sustained break below that band makes the structure far less attractive and likely drags price toward $67–$66.88. On the upside, the first serious medium-term target for a successful recovery sits in the $110–$118 range, with any decisive reclaim of that band turning attention back to $130 and $138.03. As long as Solana continues to hold above $80–$82 and buyers keep defending $70, the risk/reward profile favors being bullish with discipline, using the current discounted zone to build exposure while the network prints growth numbers that are more consistent with the early stages of a new cycle than with the end of the old one.

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