Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Tests $229 Resistance as ETF Optimism Clashes with Weak Investor Inflow

SOL-USD Momentum Builds Despite Fading On-Chain Participation

Solana (SOL-USD) continues to capture investor attention as the market’s momentum coin of October. The token trades around $229.40, only 1% lower on the day, after gaining more than 10.8% week-on-week and surpassing the $205 technical pivot. Market capitalization has risen to $126.1 billion, positioning Solana sixth among all cryptocurrencies. However, Glassnode data shows new wallet addresses have fallen to their lowest level in twelve months, suggesting enthusiasm among retail entrants is thinning even as prices rise.

This divergence is critical. Historically, shrinking participation during price rallies hints at momentum fatigue, and Solana’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator confirms the slowdown. The CMF sits near neutral territory, implying limited new capital inflows. Without renewed buying from either institutions or retail, the rally risks stalling below $232–$250, the near-term resistance band visible on the daily chart.

ETF Speculation and Institutional Traction Fuel the Bull Narrative

Despite weakening on-chain breadth, macro catalysts remain favorable. Major asset managers such as VanEck and Franklin Templeton have filed for Solana-based ETFs, following the SEC’s streamlined approval pathway that recently green-lit XRP and Dogecoin spot funds. Traders now expect a potential Solana ETF announcement between October 6 and 10 2025. The mere prospect has amplified demand from structured-product desks, where Solana perpetual volumes exceeded $8.2 billion last session, even amid a 10.17% decline in turnover versus the prior day.

Institutional positioning remains cautious but constructive. Open interest in Solana futures on major exchanges sits 18% above September averages, indicating sustained speculative engagement. A confirmed ETF approval could propel SOL toward $262, aligning with the next Fibonacci extension level from its March-to-August rally.

Network Upgrades Boost Throughput and Repair Credibility

The ongoing Alpenglow and Firedancer upgrades form the technical foundation of Solana’s 2025 recovery narrative. Once complete, these updates are expected to increase throughput beyond 65,000 transactions per second and cut latency to under 400 milliseconds. Network fees average $0.02–$0.03 per transaction — a fraction of Ethereum’s median $0.60 — giving developers renewed confidence after last year’s congestion episodes.

DeFi activity is rebounding as well: total value locked (TVL) has stabilized near $7.3 billion, up 14% month-on-month. Still, some institutional allocators remain wary of prior outages, insisting on several quarters of stability before deploying large capital blocks.

Liquidity Compression Signals Short-Term Volatility

While technical structure remains bullish, liquidity trends flash caution. The Chaikin Money Flow has flattened, mirroring shrinking inflows from both new and existing investors. Whale-wallet transaction counts above $1 million have dropped 9% since mid-September. Should CMF slide further into negative territory, SOL could retest $221, its nearest support and a key retracement zone holding 38.2% of the latest rally’s move.

Conversely, a decisive daily close above $232 would open the door to $242 and then $250, marking a full bullish continuation. Sustaining momentum beyond $250 could extend to $262–$270, though that would require a rebound in participation metrics and stronger spot inflows.

Comparative Flows Shift Toward Emerging Altcoins and Presales

A portion of the liquidity leaving Solana has migrated into new presale ecosystems such as Remittix (RTX) and Snorter (SNORT). Remittix — verified #1 on CertiK’s pre-launch leaderboard — has raised more than $27 million and sold 674 million tokens at around $0.113 each, promising crypto-to-bank transfers across 30 countries. Meanwhile, Snorter has collected $4.2 million with a 17-day presale window remaining, offering automated meme-coin trading at sub-1% fees.These early-stage projects have diverted speculative capital from Solana, at least temporarily. For now, SOL remains the established high-throughput chain, but the reallocation underscores that investors are rotating from mature Layer 1s into utility-focused PayFi and DeFi tokens seeking asymmetric returns.

Technical Levels and Market Sentiment Heading into Mid-October

Chart structure favors consolidation. The daily RSI (14) prints near 62 — neither overbought nor weak — while the MACD histogram narrows, reflecting equilibrium between bulls and bears. The immediate resistance stands at $232, followed by $250–$253, with strong support around $221 and deeper protection near $205.

Derivatives data also reveal a tight funding spread: perpetual swap funding has normalized to 0.012%, suggesting balanced leverage. Historically, such neutrality precedes a volatility expansion — a breakout either to $262 on renewed ETF momentum or a slide back toward $215 if liquidity remains thin.

Fundamentals Remain Solid Despite Short-Term Cooling

On-chain fundamentals continue to justify medium-term optimism. Solana’s developer activity ranks second only to Ethereum, and daily active addresses, although declining, still average 511 thousand. The network processes over 48 million transactions per day, surpassing Polygon and Avalanche combined. The low-fee model sustains high usage in DeFi and NFT markets, where Solana commands roughly 26% market share in new NFT mints year-to-date.

Moreover, the anticipated Solana ETF, coupled with strong TradFi interest, could inject fresh liquidity, reviving the CMF and re-establishing bullish dominance through late Q4 2025.

Verdict: BUY with Caution — Short-Term Volatility, Medium-Term Upside Toward $262

The data portray a mixed but constructive landscape. SOL-USD benefits from powerful macro drivers — ETF momentum, high throughput, and real network utility — yet faces immediate challenges in participation and liquidity depth. With price anchored near $229, risk-reward skews positively toward $262 if ETF catalysts materialize and CMF inflows recover.

Recommendation: BUY with tight risk controls.
Support: $221 | Resistance: $250 → $262
Bias: Medium-term bullish into Q4 2025; short-term range-bound until capital inflows strengthen.

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