Stock Market Slips as Tariff Shock Sends Dow and S&P 500 Lower While Nasdaq Rides Tech Rally

Equity Benchmarks Recoil Under Tariff Escalation

U.S. equity benchmarks slipped as President Trump’s reciprocal duties on dozens of trading partners kicked in at 12:01 a.m. Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43,825.34, down 367.78 points or 0.83%. The S&P 500 fell 24.00 points to 6,321.06 (–0.38%), while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 12.74 points to 21,156.69 (–0.06%). Small caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 at 2,216.83, off 0.20%.

Overseas, Asia-Pacific equities were mostly higher: Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 0.65% to 41,059.15, Topix added 0.72% to 2,987.92, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.92% to 3,227.68, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.69% to 25,081.63. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.14% to 8,831.40. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 was up about 1%, but the FTSE 100 retreated following a surprise Bank of England rate cut.

Tariff Dynamics Inject Sectoral Divergence

Semiconductor and tech names showcased the bifurcation wrought by Washington’s “Make in America” carve-outs. Apple (AAPL) rallied 2.71% to $219.03 after securing an exemption from the newly imposed 100% chip duties by pledging an extra $100 billion U.S. manufacturing investment. Nvidia (NVDA) added 1%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped 6%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gained 1.9%. By contrast, Intel (INTC) slid 3.16% to $19.77 after President Trump publicly demanded the resignation of CEO Lip-Bu Tan. TSMC (TSM) shares climbed 4.41% to $241.58, hitting record highs as the Taiwanese chip-foundry confirmed tariff relief for its Arizona facilities.

Consumer Discretionary and Staples Under Trade-Shock Pressure

E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) plunged 13% following a 30% drop in Q1 profit—tariff-induced margin compression forced a $1 price hike on most of its 75% China-made lineup. Peloton (PTON) bucked the trend, soaring 17% to $7.03 in pre-market trade after swinging to a $0.05 profit per share vs. a $0.06 loss expected and reporting $606.9 million in revenue (+Ux vs. $580.2 million consensus). Crocs (CROX) collapsed 25.96% to $77.84 after refusing to give full-year guidance amid “uncertain and challenging” headwinds; Q2 sales hit $1.41 billion but H2 tariffs now carry a $40 million drag (total $90 million for 2025).

Food delivery leader DoorDash (DASH) climbed 4.11% to $268.57 on a robust Q2 beat—orders rose 20% to 761 million, revenue grew 25% to $3.28 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached $655 million. Airbnb (ABNB) plunged 8.93% to $118.85 after projecting Q3 revenue of $4.02–4.10 billion, slightly below the $4.05 billion Street consensus. Lyft (LYFT) fell 2.71% to $13.65, underlining the margin squeeze in ride-sharing as Uber One subscription growth (36 million members, +60% YoY) limits competitive edge. Duolingo (DUOL) sprinted 26.81% to $435.71 on raised revenue guidance and AI-driven monetization success—average revenue per user rose 6% as paid conversion and pricing tier optimization gained traction.

Pharma Pulses to GLP-1 Trial Outcomes

Eli Lilly (LLY) tumbled 13.41% to $646.30 despite a Q2 beat—revenue of $15.56 billion vs. $14.69 billion expected and EPS of $6.31 vs. $5.56—after orforglipron’s Phase 3 weight-loss data (11.2% mean reduction vs. 13–14% benchmark; 10.3% discontinuation rate) disappointed. Injectable GLP-1 sales (Mounjaro, Zepbound) volume jumped 46% but prices fell 8%, driving U.S. revenue of $10.81 billion. Leerink cut its rating to Market Perform, though BofA’s Tim Anderson maintained a Buy at a $1,000 target, calling the sell-off “overdone.” Meanwhile, Sunrun (RUN) surged 28.39% to $11.65 after reporting a surprise Q2 profit of $1.07 per share vs. a $0.12 loss expected, revenue of $569 million vs. $560 million consensus, and reaffirming a modest tariff headwind estimate of $1,000–1,300 per customer.

Industrial Bellwethers and Trade-Sensitive Staples

Toyota (TM) slashed its full-year operating profit forecast by 16.3% to ¥3.2 trillion ($21.7 billion), now anticipating a ¥1.4 trillion ($9.5 billion) U.S. tariff hit vs. ¥1.2 trillion previously. A.P. Moller–Maersk raised its full-year outlook, citing container demand well ahead of expectations outside of U.S. headwinds. Telecom hardware maker CommScope (COMM) rose 2.60% to $14.82 after Bank of America’s double upgrade to Buy on its $10.5 billion spin-off deal and 3x EV/EBITDA valuation. Industrial materials producer Rogers Corp (ROG) jumped 6.07% to $74.79 after activist Starboard Value built a 9% stake, signaling a push for board changes to unlock value. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) gained over 3% pre-market on Q2 revenue of $9.81 billion vs. $9.76 billion est., net profit of $0.63 per share, 125.7 million streaming subs (+3.4 million), and studio revenue up 55% YoY. Space venture Firefly Aerospace (FLY) priced its IPO at $45, above the $41–43 range, raising $868 million and valuing the company at $6.3 billion.

Fixed Income, Volatility and Macro Indicators

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.234% (–3/32), following a 226,000 spike in weekly initial jobless claims vs. 221,000 expected and continuing claims rising to 1.974 million (highest since Nov 2021). Nonfarm productivity rose 2.4% in Q2 vs. 2% est.; unit labor costs climbed 1.6% vs. 1.5% forecast. The VIX at 16.78 (+0.06) points to muted volatility expectations. Commodities were mixed: Gold at $3,452.90 (+0.57%), WTI Crude at $64.40 (+0.08%), Brent at $67.56 (+1%), and the S&P GSCI at 540.09 (–0.13%). Digital assets rallied: Bitcoin at $116,576.59 (+1.12%) ahead of an anticipated Trump order to open retirement plans to crypto. The U.S. Dollar Index held at 95.44 (+0.02%). Financials lagged, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index at 139.53 (–0.83%).

No significant insider transactions hit the tape today, suggesting corporate executives are maintaining their holdings amid heightened trade-policy uncertainty.

Strategic Allocation and Tactical Stances

• Overweight: Tariff-exempt tech champions (AAPL, NVDA, TSM, AVGO) and high-growth service plays (DASH, PTON, RUN).

• Neutral: Pharma stalwarts with binary catalysts (LLY), mass-media restructurings (WBD, SONY), and industrial bellwethers (COP, TM).

• Underweight: Tariff-vulnerable consumer names (ELF, CROX, INTC, ABNB).

• Commodities & FX: Maintain gold and bitcoin exposures; hold oil.

• Fixed Income: With 10-year yields above 4%, position overweight intermediate-duration bonds to lock in yield.

• Volatility: VIX complacency suggests hedges may be prudent as tariff impacts materialize in fall economic data.

Browser’s Verdict: Tactical Buys, Holds & Sells

• Buy: AAPL, NVDA, TSM, RUN, DASH, PTON — secular growth, tariff insulation, margin expansion.

• Hold: LLY, UBER, WBD, SONY, TM — solid fundamentals offset by policy and macro headwinds.

• Sell: ELF, CROX, INTC, ABNB — direct exposure to escalating tariffs, margin contraction, and/or disappointing guidance.

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