Stock Market Today: Dow 46,000, Nasdaq 22,021, S&P 6,582 on Fed Cut Hopes

Dow Jones Surges Past 46,000 as Rate Cut Bets Intensify

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pushed through 46,000 for the first time on Thursday, rallying 567 points (+1.25%) to 46,060.93. The move was driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut at its September 17 meeting despite hotter-than-expected inflation data. Gains in blue chips like Goldman Sachs (GS $784.17, +1.90%), Caterpillar (CAT $430.46, +1.79%), and Home Depot (HD $421.57, +2.02%) fueled momentum, while broad participation across financials and consumer names underpinned the advance.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Register Fresh Highs

The S&P 500 (SPX 6,582.09, +0.77%) notched another intraday and closing record, supported by nine of eleven sectors in the green and 440 of 503 listed issues advancing. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP 22,021.53, +0.62%) also scaled new highs, led by Tesla (TSLA $360.58, +3.68%) and semiconductor strength from Micron Technology (MU $152.65, +9.04%), which surged after Citi lifted its price target to $175 citing strong DRAM and NAND demand. Mutual fund accumulation trends show institutions increasing exposure to semiconductors, particularly Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM $264.58, +34% YoY sales growth), a key supplier to Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL).

Inflation Data Sparks Mixed Reaction

August CPI rose 0.4% MoM versus expectations of 0.3%, while annual CPI landed at 2.9%, matching consensus but higher than July’s 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY. Sticky energy and food prices, coupled with tariff-related pressures, highlighted inflation persistence. Still, jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, reinforcing a narrative of labor market softening. The combination kept futures pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, with rising odds of multiple cuts into December. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.00%, while Fed funds futures suggest policy could be eased toward 3.50%-3.75% by year-end.

Federal Reserve Dynamics and Political Overhang

Markets are closely watching the Senate’s vote on Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, expected Monday. Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, would join the FOMC in time for next week’s pivotal decision. Political risk continues to shape sentiment, as administration officials including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signaled an end to offshore wind expansion, a clear divergence from prior renewable energy policies. Investors interpret these policy shifts as supportive of traditional energy and industrial equities, but a headwind for clean-energy names.

Sector Leadership: Tech and Consumer Stocks Drive Momentum

In technology, Oracle (ORCL $314.73, -4.14%) reversed part of its 36% surge from Wednesday, as retail investors took profits after a historic rally tied to $455 billion in remaining cloud obligations. Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) extended gains on continued AI-driven demand for semiconductors. Opendoor (OPEN $9.43, +60.82%) jumped after naming Shopify’s Kaz Nejatian as CEO, reigniting meme-stock momentum. On the consumer front, Kroger (KR $68.06, +1.53%) beat EPS expectations and raised guidance, citing stronger same-store sales.

Energy and Commodities Under Pressure

Crude retreated after a three-day rally, with WTI (CL=F $62.41, -1.98%) and Brent (BZ=F $66.33, -1.72%) sliding as OPEC+ signaled intent to expand supply to reclaim market share. Analysts flagged stagflation risks, with inflation showing persistence while growth data softens. Gold slipped modestly, with XAU/USD $3,675 (-0.19%), as traders rotated into equities on Fed cut optimism despite dollar weakness (DXY 97.53, -0.25%).

Small-Cap and Retail Investor Flows

The Russell 2000 (RUT 2,412.97, +1.47%) recorded its highest level since December 2024, marking its biggest daily advance since August. Retail flow data showed profit-taking in large-cap tech after Oracle’s rally, with inflows into small-cap cyclicals and consumer discretionary. ETF breadth was strong, with the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP $189.77, +1.20%) outperforming the cap-weighted S&P, reflecting rotation into laggards.

IPO and Fundraising Activity

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR $35.04, +40.16%) debuted on the Nasdaq after pricing its IPO at $25, above the $20-$22 range, valuing the blockchain-focused lender at $5.3 billion. The deal raised $787.5 million, highlighting investor appetite for fintech names tied to digital assets and consumer lending platforms. Meanwhile, Alibaba (BABA $156.45, +8.70%) advanced after announcing a $3.2 billion convertible note offering, underscoring Chinese tech giants’ push for liquidity amid competitive pressures.

Verdict: Market Leaning Bullish Despite Risks

The breadth of the rally across indices — Dow above 46,000, S&P 500 at 6,582, Nasdaq at 22,021, Russell 2000 at 2,412 — signals a robust bull trend powered by expectations of monetary easing. Persistent inflation remains a concern, but labor market weakness is pressuring the Fed to act. Sector leadership in semiconductors (MU, TSM, NVDA) and consumer staples (KR) reinforces bullish positioning. Oil softness and gold stability indicate confidence in risk assets over defensives. Based on breadth, institutional flows, and Fed policy trajectory, equities remain a Buy, particularly in cyclical and tech sectors, though downside risk rises if the Fed signals a 50bp move instead of 25bp.

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