Stock Market Today - Dow 46,000: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Extend Record Run as Fed Cut Nears

Wall Street Holds Records as Fed Rate Cut Nears

The U.S. stock market is trading on the cusp of history as investors digest a wave of macroeconomic data and corporate news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has locked itself above 46,000 for the first time ever, following a 600-point leap on Thursday that pushed the index into uncharted territory. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) advanced 0.9% and now sits firmly above 6,500, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 0.7%, lifted by large-cap technology stocks. All three benchmarks are pacing for weekly gains of 1.5–1.6%, which would mark the S&P 500’s fifth positive week in the past six and the Nasdaq’s second straight advance. The Russell 2000 (^RUT), often seen as a bellwether of risk appetite, has surged nearly 10% since late July and is up 1.8% on Thursday alone, showing signs of broadening strength beyond megacaps. Futures trading early Friday showed consolidation: Dow futures (YM=F) down 64 points at 46,077, S&P 500 futures (ES=F) flat at 6,592, and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) higher by 0.13% at 24,280.

Jobs Data Overtake Inflation as Fed’s Decisive Trigger

Economic data has changed the conversation inside the Federal Reserve. August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%, and notched a 2.9% year-over-year increase. Under normal circumstances, this would keep the Fed cautious. But the spotlight shifted to the labor market: jobless claims spiked to 263,000, the highest since 2021, with only 20,000 jobs added last month. These figures point to cracks in employment that outweigh the risks of inflation, especially as Trump-era tariffs continue to feed into price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are assigning over a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with 75% odds of at least three cuts by December. The Fed now faces a delicate balancing act: cutting too slowly risks tipping the economy into stagflation, but acting too aggressively risks reigniting price growth. For Wall Street, however, the message is clear — rates are headed lower. Ten-year Treasury yields, now at 4.06%, remain off the highs seen earlier in the summer, and mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in 11 months, although home affordability remains constrained by prices up more than 50% since 2019.

Tech Titans Reinforce Market Leadership

Corporate earnings and AI headlines provided fuel for the rally. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 1% premarket after reaching a restructuring agreement with OpenAI, allowing the AI pioneer to convert into a for-profit entity while handing its nonprofit arm equity valued at over $100 billion. This resolves months of uncertainty about governance and profit-sharing, reinforcing Microsoft’s position as the dominant infrastructure backer of artificial intelligence.

Adobe (ADBE) surged nearly 4% to $362.80 after reporting fiscal Q3 EPS of $5.31 versus expectations of $5.18, on revenue of $5.99 billion against $5.91 billion consensus. Guidance for the coming quarter points to $6.08–$6.13 billion in sales, suggesting AI features in Photoshop and other creative tools are beginning to meaningfully accelerate growth. Annual recurring revenue tied to AI has surpassed $5 billion, a milestone that CEO Shantanu Narayen framed as proof Adobe leads the creative AI software category.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged 6% after confirming shipments of its Nvidia (NVDA) Blackwell Ultra servers to customers worldwide. Demand for AI computing remains white-hot, and SMCI has emerged as the prime beneficiary in the hardware integration space, solidifying its position alongside NVDA in the AI supply chain. Nvidia (NVDA) shares themselves ticked higher, continuing a run that has kept the stock near its August record highs. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) moved slightly higher, while Apple (AAPL) edged lower, reflecting a rotation back toward firms most exposed to AI infrastructure growth.

Media Frenzy: Warner Bros. Discovery and the Deal Race

The entertainment sector delivered one of the most dramatic moves of the week. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) surged 29% Thursday — its best day ever — and added another 8% in Friday’s premarket to $17.53, on reports that Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is preparing a takeover bid. Analysts suggest a bidding war could materialize, with Comcast (CMCSA) seen as a logical rival suitor given potential synergies across streaming, studios, and theme parks. Strategic logic is strong: combining Warner’s IP with Universal’s distribution machine would create a dominant force in global content. Yet antitrust hurdles loom, and Comcast’s pending Versant spin-off could complicate timing. For investors, WBD’s sudden two-day rally has revived speculative interest in a stock that had languished most of 2025.

Tariffs Hammer RH as Outlook Gets Slashed

In contrast, luxury furniture retailer RH (RH) has been punished. Shares dropped nearly 11% premarket Friday to $217.55 after Q2 EPS came in at $2.93, missing consensus at $3.20, on revenue of $899 million versus $905 million expected. CEO Gary Friedman cut revenue growth guidance to 9–11% from 10–13%, citing a $30 million tariff hit and signaling margin erosion from inflationary pressures. He warned of significant cost acceleration into 2026 and beyond, marking a bleak outlook for discretionary housing-related spending. The stock has fallen 42% year-to-date, making it one of the steepest laggards in consumer discretionary.

IPO Market Reopens with Crypto at the Helm

Investor appetite for risk is spilling into the primary market. The Gemini (GEMI) crypto exchange, led by the Winklevoss twins, priced its IPO at $28 per share, valuing the firm at $3.3 billion after being oversubscribed 20 times. Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR), which raised $787.5 million at a $5.3 billion valuation, closed Thursday 24% higher at $31.11 after debuting at $25. Klarna (KLAR), the buy-now-pay-later pioneer, has also joined public markets, raising $1.37 billion and seeing shares climb 16% on day one. The reopening of the IPO pipeline after a dormant 2024 signals risk sentiment is healing, with investors willing to underwrite growth stories again, especially in fintech and crypto.

Commodities Signal Fed Tailwinds

Gold (GC=F) continues to act as the market’s insurance policy. Futures rose 0.36% Friday to $3,686, just shy of the $3,690 record set earlier this week. Silver (SI=F) pierced $42, its highest since 2011. A softer U.S. dollar, now at 94.96 on the dollar index, alongside lower Treasury yields, has buoyed demand for havens. Meanwhile, energy is rebounding: WTI crude (CL=F) climbed 1.9% to $63.55, while Brent crude (BRN00) gained 1.8% to $67.57, recovering losses from Thursday.

Cryptocurrencies are once again showing momentum. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded at $114,942, after hitting $116,300 overnight, edging closer to its mid-August record above $124,000. With risk sentiment strengthening and ETFs continuing to pull in flows, crypto remains in lockstep with broader liquidity conditions.

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