Stock Market Today – Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Slide as Gold Crashes; AAPL, XOM, DECK in Focus

Wall Street Close: Fed Shock, Metals Crash, Earnings Rewire Leadership

Index Performance: Dow Outperforms While Nasdaq and S&P 500 Slip Into Risk-Off Mode

US equities ended Friday under pressure, but the full-month picture is more nuanced. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.43% to about 6,939, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.36% to 48,892. Despite the weak close, January finishes with a modest gain for the S&P 500 of roughly 0.3% and about 1% for the Dow, while the Nasdaq posts a decline near 1%. The clear outperformer is the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT), up roughly 3.5% for the month, signaling a rotation from mega-cap growth into value and cyclicals. Breadth has improved: the Dow and Russell 2000 outperform on the month even as the Nasdaq logs a third straight losing week. That shift matters: the tape is transitioning from a narrow tech-led advance to a broader, more valuation-sensitive market where multiple compression risk in high-multiple software and AI stories is real.

Fed Shift: Kevin Warsh Nomination Reprices Dollar, Yields and Risk Premiums

President Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair is the core macro shock. Warsh has a hawkish reputation from his 2006–2011 stint at the Fed, but in recent years has argued that AI-driven productivity and deregulation could hold down inflation and justify lower rates. Markets now face a chair who has criticized Jerome Powell for “unwise choices” on inflation, rejects wage-driven inflation narratives, and blames fiscal excess and money printing instead. The immediate impact is a stronger dollar and firmer yields. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) climbed around 0.5%, while the WSJ Dollar Index jumped close to 0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) ticked up to roughly 4.24%. Rate-cut expectations are being nudged back: a Warsh Fed is perceived as more orthodox on inflation and balance-sheet size, less eager to validate aggressive easing even with Trump publicly demanding cuts. For equities, that resets the discount rate backdrop just as valuations sit at or near record highs.

Precious Metals Collapse: Gold GC=F and Silver SI=F Suffer 1980-Scale One-Day Damage

The most dramatic move of the day was in precious metals. Gold Apr 26 futures (GC=F) plunged roughly $610, down about 11.4%, to around $4,745 per ounce. Silver Mar 26 (SI=F) was hit even harder, collapsing about 31% to near $78.50. Intraday, the Comex March silver contract dropped roughly 37%, from around $118 to about $74 before stabilizing. That is one of the largest intraday drawdowns ever recorded for silver. The move is a textbook blow-off reversal. Gold had just broken above $5,000 earlier in the week, silver had more than doubled from its October breakout and shattered a 45-year high. Positioning was extended, options activity was frenzied, and realized volatility was already flashing red. Warsh’s nomination, a stronger dollar, and a shove higher in real yields provided the trigger that forced leveraged players to unwind. Large institutional investors aggressively liquidated long futures and options, margin calls cascaded and liquidity thinned, turning a needed correction into a full-scale crash. Even after this, the three-year scorecard is still extreme: since early 2023 gold is up roughly 200% and silver around 366%. The current phase looks like a late-stage bull market shakeout, not yet like the beginning of a structural bear market, but the message is clear: parabolic moves come with parabolic risk.

Silver’s Repricing: From Parabolic Melt-Up to High-Volatility Bull Phase

Silver’s behavior has moved from trending to speculative. Globally, prices fell more than 35% intraday, then closed the month still up around 19%, marking a ninth consecutive monthly gain despite the crash. US-listed silver ETFs that track spot and futures saw single-day drops of roughly 29% in some cases, their worst performance since inception. The pattern is classic: retail and short-term traders piled into silver after dramatic gains, while professional money that accumulated earlier has been taking profits into strength for weeks. Structurally, silver remains anchored by its dual role: a monetary hedge and a critical input for solar panels, EVs and data-center semiconductors. Every solar panel consumes about 20 grams of silver, EVs use 25–50 grams each, and AI data centers consume silver via chip demand. That industrial pull keeps the long-term story constructive. Tactically, after a 30–40% intraday washout, the metal will trade like a high-beta, high-volatility asset. For a medium-term stance, silver remains a high-risk speculative buy with the clear warning that further 10–20% daily swings are possible; for risk-averse investors it is effectively a hold or avoid until volatility mean-reverts.

Gold’s Shock Move: Biggest One-Day Dollar Drop on Record but Bull Trend Not Broken

Gold’s drop of about 11% to roughly $4,745 not only erased recent gains but also registered the largest one-day dollar decline in the history of the contract and the worst percentage fall since 1980. Spot gold briefly traded below the $5,000 mark before accelerating lower as stop-loss orders fired and volatility-targeting funds cut exposure. Yet, despite Friday’s damage, gold is still up around 11% year-to-date and far above its level a year ago. The structural drivers—central bank buying, geopolitical risk, concern over long-run fiscal sustainability—are intact. What changed is the near-term rate narrative: a Warsh Fed plus a firmer dollar compresses the “real rate” cushion that had justified extreme upside. Option skews and futures positioning suggest speculative longs were overcrowded. The correction flushes out weak hands and resets positioning at a higher price base. From a medium-term macro lens, gold remains a hold with a bullish bias, but after such a vertical rally and violent flush, fresh long entries should be staggered, not chased.

US Sector Rotation: Consumer Names Outperform, Materials and Tech Take the Hit

Under the surface of the indices, sector performance on Friday underscored the rotation theme. The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) gained roughly 0.5%, while the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) rose around 0.4%, both defying the broader market drawdown. In contrast, the Materials ETF (XLB) dropped close to 0.9% and the Technology ETF (XLK) fell about 1%. The message is that investors are selectively rotating into consumer-oriented names and away from cyclicals tied to commodities and high-multiple tech as real rates tick up. Materials are doubly exposed to both the precious metals crash and concerns about global demand as trade tensions and tariff threats resurface. For allocation, defensive and quality consumer names remain relatively resilient; leveraged metals plays and richly valued software stand on shakier ground.

Big Tech Scorecard: NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN Stabilize While MSFT and META Digest Swings

Big Tech, which dominates the Nasdaq (^IXIC), showed mixed but calmer price action after Thursday’s turmoil. Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) traded roughly flat to slightly positive, signaling that AI infrastructure and cloud growth names remain in demand even as volatility rises. Microsoft (MSFT), which shocked the market with a 10% drop on concerns over decelerating cloud growth, stabilized but did not fully recover. Tesla (TSLA) bounced about 4%, clawing back part of Thursday’s selloff, while Meta Platforms (META) slipped around 2% after a sharp post-earnings surge. Apple (AAPL) ended about 0.5% higher, helped by strong iPhone sales and an earnings beat, offset by margin concerns tied to a global memory shortage. At this stage, the “Magnificent” complex is bifurcating: AI infrastructure winners like NVDA look structurally strong, while high-expectation software and some consumer hardware names face valuation and margin risk. Stance: NVDA and GOOGL tilt Buy, MSFT and AMZN are reasonable Hold with volatility, TSLA is a speculative Hold, META is a Hold after its spike, AAPL is a cautious Buy anchored by hardware and ecosystem strength but margin risk must be monitored.

Software Under Pressure: SaaS Multiple Compression as AI Threatens Legacy Models

Software stocks inside the S&P 500 have fallen roughly 18% over the last six months while the index itself is up around 9% over that span. Thursday’s large drop followed earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), ServiceNow (NOW) and SAP (SAP) that were fundamentally solid but highlighted a deeper concern: AI could enable enterprise customers to build in-house tools using large language models rather than paying premium SaaS subscriptions. SAP (SAP) closed Friday modestly higher around $201, but the sector overall has lost its leadership role. Investors are questioning whether legacy SaaS models deserve the same multiples in a world where AI commoditizes certain workflow and automation functions. Stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and NOW face a long-term test: either integrate AI deeply enough to justify pricing power or accept lower valuations. For now, broad SaaS is a Hold to light Sell, with stock-specific exceptions where AI integration is already driving real revenue and cost savings.

US Corporate Earnings: Apple AAPL, Sandisk SNDK, Exxon XOM, Chevron CVX, AXP, VZ and DECK

Results across key US names on Friday cut across tech, energy, financials and consumer. Apple (AAPL) delivered “blowout” iPhone sales and quarterly profit above estimates, pushing the stock to finish about 0.5% higher after an early dip. The risk flagged by Tim Cook is a global shortage of memory chips, which could squeeze future margins even if top-line demand remains strong. That makes AAPL a dominant free-cash-flow machine but with near-term cost risk. Sandisk (SNDK) exploded higher, up about 22% on the session and roughly 1,400% over the last year, after earnings beat estimates by nearly $3 per share and guidance confirmed surging demand from AI and data-center customers. This is a high-beta AI hardware beneficiary, priced for perfection but still fundamentally supported while AI infrastructure spending accelerates. Western Digital (WDC) saw a paradoxical 10% selloff despite also beating forecasts, signaling stretched positioning and investor preference for clearer AI leverage. In energy, Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported 2025 adjusted profit of about $30.1 billion, down from $33.5 billion, while Chevron (CVX) posted $13.5 billion versus $18.3 billion the prior year. Both beat Q4 EPS expectations, with XOM delivering $1.71 versus $1.68 expected and CVX printing $1.52 versus $1.44. XOM closed around $141.40, up 0.63%, with after-hours trading near $141.70. Despite year-on-year profit declines driven by an oil glut, both management teams are leaning into AI-related energy demand and potential Venezuelan regime change as longer-term upsides. In financials, American Express (AXP) is central both as an earnings story and as a macro barometer. While quarterly numbers were solid with double-digit revenue growth, shares slipped roughly 2% as Trump’s proposal to cap credit-card rates at 10% overhangs the sector. CEO Stephen Squeri bluntly warned that such a cap would shrink credit supply and slow small business activity. In telecom, Verizon (VZ) rose 5% after adding 616,000 wireless phone subscribers, far above expectations, thanks to heavy holiday promotions. Revenue and profit guidance were also comfortably ahead of consensus, re-rating the stock from defensive yield play toward modest growth. In consumer and lifestyle, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) was one of the session’s standout winners. The stock closed near $119, up about 19.5%, after record Q3 revenue of about $1.96 billion (up 7.1% year-on-year) and record adjusted EPS of $3.33, up 11% versus the prior year and well ahead of the $2.76 consensus. HOKA brand sales jumped 18.5% to around $628.9 million, UGG revenue rose 4.9% to about $1.31 billion, and international sales surged 15% compared with 2.7% domestic growth. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $5.40–$5.42 billion from roughly $5.36 billion. DECK is executing like a high-quality compounder: strong brands, expanding international mix, and margin discipline. Stance: AAPL – Buy, SNDK – speculative Buy with extreme risk, XOM and CVX – Hold leaning Buy for long-term energy exposure, AXP – Buy on structural earnings power but regulatory headline risk, VZ – Hold to modest Buy as a high-yield defensive, DECK – Buy, with valuation justified by brand momentum and guidance upgrades.

Macro Risk Signal: Insider Selling Spike and Buffett’s AAPL–AXP Rotation

Insider activity and Berkshire’s portfolio shift send a clear caution signal. Across roughly 6,000 US-listed firms, almost 1,000 executives sold stock in January versus just 207 who bought, the highest sell-to-buy ratio in five years. Elevated insider selling at index highs historically correlates with weaker forward returns: leaders use strength to harvest gains when they perceive valuations as stretched and geopolitical risk as elevated. At the same time, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has aggressively trimmed its stake in Apple (AAPL) since mid-2023, selling about three-quarters of the position. At the peak, Apple was worth close to $180 billion in Berkshire’s portfolio, around $154 billion more than American Express (AXP). As of last week, that gap has shrunk to roughly $8.4 billion, and at one point came as close as about $4.3 billion. Apple’s share price has risen about 35% over the last two and a half years, while AXP has more than doubled, up around 106%. Berkshire has not bought AXP since the late 1990s, but the stake has grown to roughly 22% of the company through buybacks. The signal is straightforward: Buffett’s shop is reducing exposure to a mega-cap tech name that had become an outsized concentration risk and letting long-held financials and cash-flow machines rise in relative weight. Combined with record insider selling and high global equity valuations, the message for the broad S&P 500 (^GSPC) is to temper expectations and widen the distribution of outcomes.

India and Metals: Global Silver Shock Meets Domestic Volatility Without Breaking the Cycle

The global silver crash was mirrored in India through futures and local bullion but the structural trend remains higher. Internationally, silver dropped from around $118 to as low as $74 intraday before closing near $84, a fall of roughly 27% on the day while still ending January positive. Over the past three years, gold is up about 200% and silver about 233–366% depending on the reference point. The short-term driver is clear: profit-taking after a vertical rally, forced deleveraging, a sharp rebound in the dollar, and a reset in Fed expectations following Warsh’s nomination. The medium-term story remains supported by geopolitical risk, AI-driven industrial demand, and tight physical markets. With India’s Union Budget 2026 due on Sunday, any tweaks to import duties or tax structure can add a second layer of volatility but do not alter the core global thesis. For now, both gold and silver remain high-volatility macro hedges that have shifted from “one-way trade” to “two-sided market.” Positioning needs to adjust accordingly.

Indian Earnings Pulse: Sun Pharma, IDFC First Bank, Delhivery, GAIL, CDSL and Others

Outside the US, Friday’s results from India offer a read on global demand, financial intermediation and healthcare. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries delivered a strong Q3 FY26 print: net profit grew 16% year-on-year, revenue increased 13.5%, and EBITDA rose 23.4%. EBITDA margin slipped from 31.9% to 29.3%, still very healthy. That combination—double-digit top-line growth with high-20s margins—confirms resilient pharma demand and disciplined cost control. The stance on Sun Pharma as a global generics and specialty player is clearly Buy. IDFC First Bank reported a 48% year-on-year increase in net profit and 12% growth in net interest income, with earlier quarters showing similar momentum. Net interest margin remains robust around the mid-5% area, even as it moderates slightly from peaks. That profile—rapid profit growth and high spreads—is typical of an early-cycle retail-focused lender. For a macro lens, it signals that Indian credit demand and consumption are still expanding solidly. IDFC First screens as a Buy, albeit with the usual emerging market bank risk. Delhivery posted revenue growth of 18% year-on-year, EBITDA up 103%, and margin expanding from 4.3% to 7.4%, with net profit up 58.5%. This is a levered bet on e-commerce and logistics with visible operating leverage. The move from low single-digit to mid-single-digit margins points to a business that is scaling into profitability; stance is speculative Buy. GAIL (India) saw net profit fall 27.7% sequentially and revenue slip 2.7%, while EBITDA and margins weakened from the previous quarter. The stock remains tied to gas spreads, policy, and global LNG cycles; on current numbers it is a Hold, with upside requiring a clearer margin upcycle. CDSL delivered revenue growth of 15.2%, net profit growth of 14.3%, and EBITDA margin above 56%, a powerful combination for a market-infrastructure provider leveraged to rising retail participation. With such high margins and steady double-digit growth, CDSL tilts Buy as a structural play on financialization. Across smaller names like Reliance Infrastructure, RR Kabel, Delhivery’s peer group and others, the pattern is mixed but broadly constructive: many mid-caps are expanding EBITDA and margins even when revenue is flat to slightly down, indicating a focus on profitability as rates remain elevated.

Trump Tariffs, Trade Noise and Global Risk: From Greenland to Cuba and Beyond

Trump’s renewed trade threats remain a key tail risk. He has floated a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft and threatened to decertify new jets from companies like Bombardier (BDRBF) in retaliation for perceived certification barriers to US Gulfstream jets. At the same time, he has signaled new levies on countries supplying oil to Cuba. Earlier in the month, tariff talk over Greenland triggered a sharp sell-off that was later reversed when the threats were walked back, drawing comparisons to the “Liberation Day” volatility episode last April. Warsh’s view that tariffs are one-off price shocks, rather than systemic inflation drivers, may calm some of the macro inflation anxiety, but for specific sectors—aviation, industrials, and some commodities—the policy risk remains binary. The index-level conclusion is that geopolitical and policy headline risk is fully live; it just oscillates between metals, industrials and trade-sensitive stocks instead of hitting everything at once.

Market Stance: Buy, Sell or Hold Across Key Assets After Friday’s Shock

For the S&P 500 (^GSPC), valuation, insider selling, Warsh’s nomination and the metals crash all argue for caution. Earnings are not collapsing, but multiples are rich and policy uncertainty is rising. The stance here is Hold, with a negative skew: upside exists but is not compelling enough to justify aggressive new exposure at these levels. The Dow (^DJI), benefiting from value and cyclicals, earns a Hold leaning Buy: its sector mix is better aligned with a world of modestly higher real rates and a broader earnings base. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) is more fragile; multiple compression risk in software and pockets of AI euphoria remain high. It is a Hold to selective Buy only in core names like NVDA, GOOGL and AMZN, not a blanket buy. In small-caps, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) has outperformed with a 3.5% monthly gain and improving breadth, but also carries more balance-sheet and credit risk. It is a selective Buy for investors who want cyclical and domestic leverage, but not a low-risk trade. For gold (GC=F), the long-term thesis remains intact, but the short-term technical picture is damaged. After the largest one-day dollar drop on record, gold is a Hold with a medium-term bullish bias, favoring staggered accumulation rather than aggressive buying. For silver (SI=F), the volatility is too extreme for conservative capital; structurally it remains an industrial and monetary play, but tactically it is a high-risk speculative Buy only for investors who can absorb further double-digit declines. Among individual US stocks, AAPL is a Buy on earnings power, even as Berkshire trims exposure; NVDA is a Buy on AI infrastructure dominance despite volatility; MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL are solid Holds that can be leaned into on weakness; SNDK is a speculative Buy with genuine AI tailwinds but extreme sentiment risk; AXP is a Buy as a structural compounder, even with regulatory overhang; XOM and CVX are Holds leaning Buy as cash-rich energy majors navigating an oversupplied oil market with long-term AI and emerging-market demand as support; DECK is a clear Buy off record numbers and raised guidance. For India-linked names, Sun Pharma and CDSL stand out as Buys, IDFC First and Delhivery as higher-beta Buys, GAIL as a Hold. Overall, Friday’s tape is not a broad “get out” signal, but it is a clear warning: leverage and crowded trades in metals and high-multiple software have been punished. From here, the market favors quality balance sheets, durable cash flows and realistic expectations over speculative momentum.

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