XRP Price Forecast – XRP-USD Slides to 90-Day Lows Near $1.60

XRP-USD PRICE STUCK IN A DOWNWARD CHANNEL AROUND $1.60–$1.70

Short-Term XRP-USD Price Action And Key Support Zones

XRP-USD has shifted from attacking the $3.00 area earlier in the cycle to defending the $1.60–$1.70 band. Recent prints show drops of roughly 3–4% in a single session, extending the weekly loss to around 11%. One key leg lower took XRP down to about $1.69, a fresh 90-day low, with daily trading volume around $4.0 billion and down more than 20% compared with prior days. Across large venues, spot quotations cluster around $1.63–$1.70, with intraday lows close to $1.61. The $1.61–$1.65 range is now the first meaningful floor; if that area fails, price will likely probe the psychological $1.50 region next. On higher time frames, XRP-USD is clearly in a corrective phase rather than an impulsive uptrend. The 50-day moving average sits near $1.97, and the 200-day moving average is up around $2.53, while spot trades well below both. That distance confirms that the medium-term trend has turned decisively bearish even though the long-term adoption story has not disappeared.

ETFs, REGULATORY WINS AND THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN XRP FUNDAMENTALS AND PRICE

On the fundamental side, the tape looks far better than the chart. XRP spot ETFs have launched and managed to generate roughly 22 consecutive sessions of net inflows, lifting combined ETF assets above the $1 billion mark. Ripple has reduced legal overhang with major SEC progress and has expanded its footprint in regions like Singapore, the Middle East and Africa, supported by the $1 billion GTreasury acquisition. Those are the kind of developments that normally underpin a sustained rerating. Instead, XRP-USD has dropped about 17% from the $1.87–$1.90 area and remains far below the recent highs above $3.00. The clear conclusion is that positive headlines are being recycled into liquidity for sellers. Structural selling pressure from large holders and a broader risk-off tone in crypto are overpowering the apparently bullish news flow.

Long-Term XRP Holders Realizing Hundreds Of Millions In Daily Profits

On-chain data shows that the most aggressive selling is not panicked retail capitulation; it is methodical profit-taking from very early holders. Realized profits have surged by about 240% since September, rising from approximately $65 million a day to nearly $220 million a day. One wallet that accumulated seven years ago at around $0.40 exited roughly $721 million of XRP in the region of $2.00. That single wallet is a clear illustration of the cohort that dominates the supply side: long-term investors crystallizing multi-fold gains after regulatory clarity and ETF launches. For that group, the $1.80–$2.20 zone is acceptable exit territory. As long as they keep unloading into strength, every approach toward the $2 region attracts a wall of supply, turning what looks like a breakout attempt into another lower high and trapping late buyers near the top of each bounce.

Derivatives, Liquidations And XRP Leverage Reset After The October Shock

The October liquidation event that erased close to $19 billion of leveraged positions across crypto still defines the structure of the XRP market. Estimated leverage ratios on major platforms dropped to roughly 0.18, one of the lowest readings of this cycle. For XRP this means there is far less speculative long leverage pushing price up, and every clean break below support triggers another forced liquidation wave. When XRP slipped below the $1.73 extension and then lost the $1.70 support band, around $70 million of XRP futures positions were liquidated, with the bulk of the pain on the long side. These were traders betting on a rebound and forced out as their margins were wiped. Leverage has come down but not been completely flushed. Until there is clear capitulation and a long period of stabilization, every attempt at a recovery rally will remain fragile and easy for sellers to fade.

Exchange Balances, Liquidity Drain And Order-Book Sensitivity For XRP-USD

The most important structural shift is the collapse in exchange balances. Centralized venues used to hold roughly 3.76 billion XRP. That inventory has shrunk to around 1.64 billion, a more than 50% drop and the lowest available exchange supply since 2017. At the same time, taker buy volume has fallen off a cliff, from about $5.8 billion to roughly $250 million, a decline of 95.7% in active buying. The taker buy-sell ratio has stayed negative, so sell-side market orders have consistently outweighed aggressive buys. Tokens have migrated to self-custody, institutional custodians and OTC settlement accounts, which removes immediate liquidity from visible order books but does not reduce the total float. This configuration cuts both ways. In the short term, smaller exchange balances reduce instant sell pressure, but they also mean that when demand does return the book is thin and small flows can cause violent price swings in either direction. For now, with demand weak and market sells dominant, thin books are amplifying downside rather than upside.

Whale Accumulation, Contrarian Flows And Retail Behavior In XRP-USD

Despite the aggressive decline, not every large holder is exiting. Whale-level on-chain data shows accumulation patterns even during the drop under $1.70. High-profile buyers have disclosed seven-figure entries, using the downturn to build positions; a $1 million purchase in the $1.60–$1.70 zone is an example of that contrarian appetite. The structure therefore is a tug-of-war between early capital locking in huge gains above $2 and fresh participants willing to absorb supply in the mid-$1s, betting on a recovery toward $2.00 and beyond. So far, the distribution side still dominates. The main practical impact of whale accumulation at these levels is that it reduces the probability of a complete collapse and creates the conditions for sharp short squeezes if sentiment turns. But until those new flows exceed the size and persistence of early-holder selling, any rebound remains tactical.

XRP To $50 Or $100 Narratives Versus Actual Investor Behavior

The narrative layer is full of bold targets, with some commentators pushing scenarios where XRP trades between $50 and $100. Ripple’s former CTO David Schwartz provided a useful sanity check on those expectations. His argument is that if a meaningful number of rational investors really believed there was even a 10% chance of XRP hitting $100 in a few years, they would be aggressively accumulating and would refuse to sell anywhere below $10. In that scenario, supply under double-digit prices would vanish, and the market would quickly reprice. The fact that heavy selling appears around $2.00 and that size is still available well below $10 is a direct signal that the aggregate probability assigned to the $50–$100 path is low. Schwartz explicitly avoids claiming such prices are impossible, but he emphasizes that behavior in the order book does not match the loudest social-media predictions. Crypto bubbles often overshoot, yet they usually do so on catalysts that the majority did not fully discount in advance, not on targets that everyone broadcasts for years.

Technical Indicators, Death Cross And XRP-USD Fibonacci Structure

Technically, XRP-USD is firmly in a downtrend. The market failed multiple times inside the $2.19–$2.29 band, which had been an important support area and now acts as a strong supply zone. A clear supply pin bar formed near that region and was followed by a seven percent single-day drop to roughly $2.05, signaling demand exhaustion. The decisive break below the $1.93 Fibonacci level confirmed that the prior floor had become overhead resistance. On the moving-average side, the 50-day average has crossed below the 200-day average, generating a textbook death cross that frequently precedes extended bearish phases. Shorter-term Fibonacci projections place the 1.618 extension near $1.73, which already failed, the 2.272 extension around $1.64, where price is oscillating now, and the 2.618 extension in the $1.60–$1.59 area, coinciding with previous liquidity pockets. On the four-hour chart the RSI is below 40 without convincing bullish divergence, which points to continuing weakness instead of a confirmed bottom. Daily data from other feeds shows RSI in the mid-60s with an ADX reading close to 35, meaning the downtrend is strong but not yet in a capitulation blow-off. MACD shows a slightly positive histogram near 0.05 while the signal line remains negative around -0.08, hinting at a modest loss of downside momentum without yet flipping the trend.

Volume, Capital Flows And Institutional Footprint In XRP-USD

Volume and flow metrics confirm that this is real selling, not random noise in illiquid markets. Daily spot turnover has climbed to roughly 139.5 million XRP in some samples, slightly above a 90-day average near 134.3 million. The rise in volume while price falls is consistent with active exits, not a lazy drift. Futures data show more than $70 million of positions liquidated during the break below $1.73 and $1.70, with the majority of the damage happening to over-leveraged longs. On-Balance Volume around -96.9 billion reflects sustained net outflows. The Money Flow Index near 64 suggests that capital is leaving XRP-USD despite the lower price, which is normally a bearish signal. Long-only ETFs and selective whale accumulation show that certain institutional players are willing to buy this weakness, but the aggregate footprint still supports the idea that larger, older positions are unwinding faster than new ones are being created.

Macro Conditions, Bitcoin Performance And Altcoin Risk Appetite

XRP-USD’s slide is also part of a broader pattern within the digital asset market. Bitcoin has stalled after strong earlier gains, with volatility spikes followed by hesitancy. When BTC stops trending up and starts chopping sideways to down, risk appetite for high-beta altcoins tends to evaporate. The last few sessions show XRP underperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum, losing around nine percent over five days while the large caps have held up relatively better. That is classic late-cycle altcoin behavior during cautious phases. At the same time, macro uncertainty around Fed policy, growth expectations, and volatility in commodities like gold and oil is pushing institutional portfolios to prioritize liquidity and reduce speculative exposures. In that environment, even coins with strong fundamental narratives suffer as a source of cash.

XRP-USD Scenario Map Around $1.24, $1.60 And $4.00

Quantitative forecasts built on current volatility and trend structure point to a possible monthly path toward roughly $1.24, which would represent another 20–30% downside from the $1.60–$1.70 zone. The same models put a 12-month central scenario around $4.00–$4.20, implying 140–160% upside from current levels if the market stabilizes and capital rotates back from Bitcoin into select altcoins. Three- and five-year projections in the $6.00–$9.00 region assume steady institutional adoption and no major regulatory shock. These numbers are not guarantees; they are probability-weighted paths based on current information. The key asymmetry is that the local downside from here to $1.24 is limited compared with the potential upside back to $3.00 and beyond if sentiment and flows recover. The risk is that the market may insist on testing the lower bands first before pricing in that long-term story again.

Final XRP-USD Stance: SPECULATIVE HOLD WITH BEARISH NEAR-TERM BIAS

Taking all the data together, XRP-USD sits at a critical juncture. Price trades in a clear downtrend below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the $1.61–$1.65 range acting as near-term support and $1.50 as the next obvious downside magnet if that band fails. Exchange balances are historically low, which will amplify whatever move comes next. Early holders are realizing very large profits, forcing the market to absorb heavy supply even as ETFs and regulatory wins improve the headline story. Leverage has been punished but not completely flushed, and every break of support is still triggering liquidation waves. At the same time whales, ETFs and some contrarian buyers are positioning around these levels, hinting that the long-term thesis is not broken, only under pressure. In this configuration, XRP-USD looks like a speculative hold rather than a clean buy or outright short. The near-term bias remains bearish toward the $1.50–$1.24 area as long as price stays locked below $1.75–$1.80 and cannot reclaim the $1.86 zone and the $1.97 50-day moving average. Only a decisive recovery through those levels would justify upgrading the view from defensive to constructive.

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