Muted Index Performance Despite Job Shock
U.S. equities opened Tuesday with restrained momentum after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipped 53 points to 45,461.72 (-0.12%). The S&P 500 (SPX) eased 0.06% to 6,491.46, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dipped 0.11% to 21,775.41. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lagged sharply, losing 0.56% to 2,381.45, a reflection of heightened pressure on smaller-cap names as investors priced in weaker domestic demand. Bond yields moved in the opposite direction, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury climbing to 4.079%, while the VIX volatility index jumped 1.92% to 15.40, a warning sign that hedging activity is creeping back.
Jobs Data Revisions Hit Labor Confidence
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual benchmark revision, slashing job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 by a staggering 911,000 positions. Economists had expected a downward revision closer to 680,000–900,000. Instead, payrolls that were thought to have grown by 1.76 million over that span now look materially weaker. The downward shift compounds the August nonfarm payroll print of just 22,000 new jobs, far below forecasts of 75,000. June’s revised loss of 13,000 jobs marked the first monthly contraction in over four years. This paints a picture of a labor market cracking faster than the Fed anticipated. Traders are now pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut next week, with CME futures assigning a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut and 10% odds of a larger 50 bps move.
Federal Reserve Dilemma Deepens
Market positioning assumes Chair Powell will deliver easing in September, but the scale of the cut remains hotly debated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly acknowledged the labor data’s fragility, estimating as much as an 800,000-job gap even before today’s confirmation. Some strategists, like Ed Yardeni, warn that cutting into a market already sitting near record highs risks creating a liquidity-fueled melt-up without addressing underlying structural labor shortages. Others argue the Fed cannot ignore consecutive weak employment signals and must act aggressively to avoid a deeper slowdown. Inflation readings due midweek — PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday — will define the scope of cuts. A CPI surprise to the upside could reignite stagflation fears.
Tech Under Pressure Ahead of Apple Event
Shares of Apple (AAPL) fell modestly, trading down 0.4% as investors braced for the unveiling of the iPhone 17 lineup in Cupertino. Expectations are high for the ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air, but analysts caution that slimmer design paired with smaller battery life could limit adoption. With the stock sitting at elevated valuations after tariff-driven buying earlier this year, investors are demanding meaningful innovation to reignite sales momentum. The Nasdaq’s recent surge has been carried by mega-cap names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), both at record highs, but broader participation remains thin, making Apple’s launch a critical sentiment test.
M&A Sparks in Mining and AI
A seismic deal in commodities drove global miners higher. Anglo American (UK:AAL) surged nearly 9% in London after announcing a $53 billion merger with Teck Resources (TECK) to form one of the world’s largest copper producers. Teck’s U.S.-listed shares soared 16% in premarket, while peers Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and Glencore (GLEN.L) gained 2–5%. With copper demand tied to EVs and electrification, the merger signals long-term conviction in resource scarcity. In tech infrastructure, CoreWeave (CRWV) advanced 6% after launching a venture fund aimed at AI startups, leveraging its Nvidia-backed GPU cloud platform. Separately, Nebius (NBIS) exploded 54% in premarket after signing a $17.4 billion AI cloud deal with Microsoft (MSFT), extending its already triple-digit rally in 2025.
Healthcare and Pharma Moves
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) climbed nearly 4% to $332.77 after projecting that 78% of Medicare members will be in four-star or higher-rated plans in 2026, boosting confidence in long-term enrollment quality. In biotech, Tourmaline Bio (TRML) skyrocketed 58% to $47.69 after agreeing to a $1.4 billion acquisition by Novartis (NVS, NOVN.SW) at $48 per share. The deal gives Novartis access to pacibekitug, a Phase III-ready anti-inflammatory therapy, strengthening its cardiovascular pipeline. Novartis shares slipped modestly on execution risk.
Media and Corporate Shifts
Fox Corp (FOX) slid 5% after a family trust settlement gave Lachlan Murdoch firm control of the empire, unsettling investors concerned about governance. Dell Technologies (DELL) declined 3% following CFO Yvonne McGill’s resignation, raising uncertainty around financial leadership despite strong enterprise demand trends. Elsewhere, SailPoint (SAIL) tumbled 12% on weak quarterly optics despite lifting full-year guidance, underscoring investor impatience in identity-security software.
