TotalEnergies Stock Price Forecast - (NYSE:TTE) Slashes CapEx by $1B, Targets $88

TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) Reinforces Energy Leadership with LNG Expansion and Strategic CapEx Cuts

TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:TTE) closed at $59.71, gaining 0.39% on October 3, 2025, and extended to $60.15 in after-hours trading. The French energy major, with a $130.16 billion market cap, continues to outperform the CAC 40, delivering a 14.6% YTD return versus the index’s 9.49%, and a five-year gain of 138.6%—more than double its domestic benchmark. Despite the recent pullback from the 52-week high of $69.79, TTE’s valuation and evolving portfolio position it as one of the most disciplined and diversified players among global oil majors.

Balancing Oil Volatility with LNG and Renewables Expansion

TotalEnergies is aggressively expanding its LNG capacity to hedge against oil price volatility and build stable cash flows. The company has positioned LNG as a core profit driver, targeting a 20% free cash flow increase by 2030 compared to 2024 levels under its base case of $70/bbl Brent and $8/MMBtu TTF gas. Recent deals include a 49% acquisition of Anadarko’s gas assets from Continental Resources and participation in the Golden Pass LNG and Plaquemines LNG Phase II projects, designed to capture the third wave of global LNG growth. By owning upstream and power generation assets, TotalEnergies maximizes vertical integration—securing steady margins across the LNG chain while enhancing resilience against market downturns.

Operational Performance and Profitability Metrics

For the trailing twelve months, TotalEnergies generated $187.12 billion in revenue and $12.79 billion in net income, achieving a 6.83% profit margin and 10.92% return on equity. EPS stands at $5.52, with analysts expecting $6.76 for FY2025 and $7.10 for FY2026, suggesting earnings growth of nearly 5% next year. Although quarterly revenue declined 9.2% YoY due to weaker oil prices, the company’s EBITDA of $35.46 billion and levered free cash flow of $10.91 billion underline its strong operating efficiency. Its PE ratio of 10.82 and forward PE of 8.68 reflect undervaluation compared to peers like Shell (NYSE:SHEL) at 12.4 and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) at 11.7.

CapEx Reductions and Portfolio Rebalancing

TotalEnergies announced a $1 billion annual CapEx cut beginning in 2026 while maintaining 3% production growth across its oil, gas, and power segments. This restructuring is expected to generate $7.5 billion in cost savings from 2026 to 2030, improving capital efficiency amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The company recently sold a 50% stake in its North American solar portfolio and offshore Norwegian assets, aligning with its plan to streamline operations and reinforce balance sheet flexibility. At the same time, it is investing in $5.3 billion French wind projects with RWE, signaling commitment to high-return renewable ventures. Despite scaled-back buybacks from $2 billion to $1.5 billion per quarter, the company maintains its shareholder-friendly stance with a 6.77% dividend yield, among the highest in the industry.

Financial Strength and Valuation

TotalEnergies maintains $25.6 billion in cash, a debt-to-equity ratio of 53%, and a current ratio of 1.0, confirming liquidity stability despite energy price headwinds. The company’s book value per share of $52.94 implies a price-to-book ratio of just 1.11, indicating limited downside risk. With an enterprise value of $166.3 billion and EV/EBITDA of 4.27, TotalEnergies trades at an attractive discount to its intrinsic worth. Based on discounted cash flow modeling and management’s long-term projections, intrinsic valuation reaches approximately $88 per share, suggesting upside potential of 47% from current levels.

Credit Rating Ambition and Balance Sheet Optimization

Management continues pursuing an “AA” debt rating—an upgrade from its current A-grade status—by maintaining disciplined gearing levels. Its targeted gearing ratio remains below 25%, with clear guidance to align debt maturities with cash flow expansion. The firm’s free cash flow growth from upstream operations, particularly in low-OPEX LNG and petrochemical projects, supports both the dividend and the credit rating goal. These moves strengthen TotalEnergies’ reputation as one of the most financially sound energy majors, reducing exposure to future rate shocks and supporting long-term investor confidence.

Macroeconomic Landscape and Oil Market Outlook

OPEC+ decisions continue to shape TotalEnergies’ short-term profitability. Recent production hikes have pressured prices near $70 Brent, but medium-term fundamentals remain supportive. Global CapEx cuts across producers could tighten supply beyond 2026, providing upward momentum for prices. The potential for two additional U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and stronger Chinese stimulus could further boost global demand. TotalEnergies, through its gas-centric portfolio and diversified energy mix, stands to benefit disproportionately from any recovery in industrial activity and currency tailwinds.

Shareholder Returns and Market Position

Even after trimming its share repurchases, TotalEnergies remains a cash-return powerhouse, distributing 40% of annual cash flow to shareholders. The stock’s 5-year total return of 138% underscores its execution strength relative to the broader energy sector. Its beta of 0.67 shows defensive characteristics, making it attractive for investors seeking income with stability. Institutional ownership remains modest at 7.16%, leaving room for increased participation as valuation multiples normalize.

Outlook and Investment Verdict on NYSE:TTE

With a disciplined CapEx framework, expanding LNG leadership, and a strong balance sheet, TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is strategically positioned to capture the next phase of energy transition profitability. Its conservative capital management and integrated model mitigate oil price risks while maintaining high dividend visibility. Given the stock’s low forward multiple, strong cash generation, and intrinsic valuation near $88, TTE represents a Buy opportunity with medium-term upside and stable yield support above 6%.

Verdict: Buy (Target Price $88 | Upside +47%)

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