WTI Oil Price Forecast (CL=F): Goldman Sachs Warns $100 Is Days Away as Hormuz Blockade Wipes 20M Barrels Per Day

WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) at $91 and Climbing — The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed, Iraq Is Down 60%, and Goldman Sachs Says $100 Is Days Away

WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) closed Friday at just below $91 per barrel — its largest single-week gain in recorded data going back to 1983 — and by Sunday, Hyperliquid futures had already pushed the price to $115, with Brent (BZ=F) touching $117, the highest level since 2022. Those weekend futures prices are not noise. They are the market's real-time verdict on a supply disruption that JP Morgan describes as a shift "from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption." The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iraq's output has collapsed 60%. Kuwait and the UAE are actively cutting production. Qatar has declared force majeure on its LNG exports. And Goldman Sachs, in a Friday night note, stated plainly that oil prices will likely exceed $100 next week if no solution emerges — and could exceed the 2008 peak of $145 a barrel if Hormuz flows remain depressed through the end of March.

This is not a geopolitical risk premium that fades in two weeks. The physical infrastructure damage, the tanker insurance crisis, the storage overflow across Gulf producers, and the compounding production shutdowns have created a supply shock that will outlast any ceasefire by weeks or months. The oil market is in a structural deficit, and the numbers behind that deficit are staggering.

The Scale of the Supply Disruption: 20 Million Barrels Per Day Gone

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles approximately a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply. That waterway is now operating at 10% of normal capacity — worse than Goldman Sachs initially modeled, which had assumed flows would fall to 15%. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to "set ablaze" any vessel transiting the route, and that threat has proven effective. Over the past several days, only Iran-linked tankers and two bulk carriers claiming Chinese ownership have been seen passing through.

The consequence of that near-total blockade is a supply deficit that Goldman Sachs calculates at 17 times larger than the peak impact of Russian production disruptions following the Ukraine invasion in April 2022 — an event that pushed WTI to $110. The current disruption has already suspended shipments of approximately 140 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait to global refiners. That figure represents roughly 1.4 days of total global demand held in the region with no exit route.

Iraq's situation is the most dramatic individual case. Pre-conflict output ran at approximately 4.3 million barrels per day. Current production has fallen to between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels per day — a decline of roughly 2.5 million barrels daily from a single country. That shortfall alone would have been a major market event in any normal environment. In the current context, it is one of several simultaneous production collapses happening across the region.

Kuwait, UAE, and the Storage Crisis Driving Forced Shutdowns

Kuwait has initiated production cuts of 100,000 barrels per day, with that figure expected to increase as the conflict persists and storage capacity reaches its limits. The UAE, which normally pumps 3.5 million barrels per day, has also begun reducing supply and is redirecting available export capacity to bypass the Strait through alternative routes. The problem is that those alternative routes have nowhere near the capacity to absorb what normally transits Hormuz.

The storage crisis is the mechanism that will force additional cuts even without direct attacks on production facilities. Oil and gas storage at Gulf facilities is filling rapidly because tankers cannot load and depart. Once storage is full, the only option is to shut in production at the wellhead. Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy, has noted that even after the conflict ends, restarting production at fields that have been shut in is not instantaneous — depending on field type, age, and the nature of the shutdown, recovery to pre-conflict levels could take days, weeks, or months.

Saudi Arabia is attempting to compensate by redirecting crude to its Red Sea coast for export. Shipments from western terminals have surged to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day so far in March — roughly 50% above the highest monthly rate since late 2016. But Saudi Arabia exports approximately 6 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf under normal conditions. The Red Sea diversion is absorbing a fraction of that volume. The arithmetic does not come close to closing the gap.

WTI (CL=F) Price Trajectory: $100 Next Week, $150 by Month-End If Nothing Changes

The price progression of WTI (CL=F) since the start of 2026 tells the story in numbers. At the beginning of the year, crude was trading near $60 a barrel. Prices had already been rising in January and February before the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28 — a development that accelerated the move dramatically. The $10 single-day increase in US crude on Friday alone was one of the largest one-day dollar moves on record. Including Sunday's Hyperliquid futures price of $115, WTI has more than doubled from its January lows in roughly ten weeks.

Goldman Sachs has laid out a specific timeline. If Hormuz flows remain at current depressed levels through next week with no visible solution, $100 is the base case for WTI. If flows remain disrupted through March, Goldman now believes oil prices — particularly refined products — will exceed both the 2022 peak of approximately $120 per barrel and the 2008 peak of $145 per barrel. Qatar's energy minister has put a specific number on the extreme scenario: if the war continues unabated and all Gulf energy exporters are forced to shut down production, $150 per barrel becomes the destination. That is not a fringe projection — it is coming from a major LNG exporter with direct visibility into the region's production constraints.

The Murban crude futures contract — Abu Dhabi's flagship grade — has already closed at $103 a barrel. Oman crude futures are at $107. Chinese crude futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange settled at $109 in US dollar terms on Friday. WTI's $91 close does not reflect the price that physical crude is trading at in the markets closest to the disruption. The price discovery process is still catching up.

The Ceasefire Probability and Trump's Unconditional Surrender Demand

Polymarket data captures the market's assessment of how long this disruption lasts. The probability of a ceasefire occurring this month has dropped to 24%. April is at 47%, May at 61%, June at 69%. These are not probabilities that justify pricing a quick resolution into energy markets. The base case, as reflected in options and futures pricing, is weeks of continued disruption at minimum.

The political dynamics complicate the outlook further. President Trump stated explicitly on Saturday that the US would now consider targeting areas and individuals in Iran not previously included in the strike campaign, and followed that with a social media post stating attacks would continue "until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse." Iran has vowed to continue fighting regardless. The ING base case — two weeks of full disruption followed by two weeks of 50% disruption — is the most optimistic mainstream scenario, and even that model assumes US and Israeli strikes degrade Iran's ability to enforce the Hormuz closure within that timeframe. ING's most dramatic scenario is three months of full disruption to oil and LNG flows, which the bank's analysts predict would drive prices to record highs through Q2 2026.

Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has framed the market situation directly: a deficit of 20 million barrels per day is hitting global balances with no sign of relief. The White House has floated countermeasures including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, providing maritime reinsurance — a $20 billion facility announced Friday — and potentially providing naval escorts for tankers. But Seigle's assessment is unambiguous: none of these measures can offset the loss of 20 million barrels per day "or anywhere in that ballpark." The maritime reinsurance program addresses cost concerns for shipping companies, but the actual barrier to transit is crew safety — and no insurance package solves the problem of Iranian drones targeting vessels in the strait.

Infrastructure Attacks: Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura Closed, Qatar Force Majeure on LNG

The supply disruption extends beyond the Hormuz blockade. Iran has been targeting regional energy infrastructure directly. Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal — one of the largest in the world — has been forced to close following attacks, with no current information on the extent of damage or repair timeline. Israel bombed key energy infrastructure inside Iran over the weekend; Iran responded by targeting Haifa, Israel's major refinery.

Qatar declared force majeure on its LNG exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks on its facilities. Qatar supplies approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas. Sources told Reuters that returning to normal production levels will take at least one month even after the attacks stop. The Qatari energy minister has gone further, warning that if the war continues at its current pace, all Gulf energy exporters will be forced to shut down production within weeks.

Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting the Shaybah oil field over the weekend — a facility with 1 million barrels per day capacity. Attacks on infrastructure in Bahrain and Qatar have also continued. The combination of Hormuz blockade, direct infrastructure strikes, and storage overflow creates a multi-layered supply shock where each individual component would qualify as a major market event on its own.

The Global Economic Cascade: $3.41 Gasoline, Record Jet Fuel, Asian Fuel Rationing

The downstream effects are already measurable in consumer-facing data. The US national average gasoline price reached $3.41 per gallon on Saturday — a $0.43 increase in a single week. That pace of increase, if sustained, translates to roughly $1.72 per gallon over a month, which would push the national average above $5 for the first time since 2022. Goldman Sachs warned explicitly that this inflation risk represents a political vulnerability for Trump heading into midterm elections, with voter sensitivity to energy costs historically among the highest of any economic indicator.

Jet fuel in northwest Europe hit an all-time high of $1,528 per metric ton on Thursday — equivalent to more than $190 per barrel — according to General Index data going back to 2008. Half of the European Union's jet fuel imports typically transit Hormuz. The surge in aviation fuel costs will begin flowing through to airfare pricing within weeks.

In Asia, the impact is immediate and severe. Japan sources over 90% of its crude from the Middle East and has asked for authorization to draw on national oil reserves. China has curbed fuel exports to preserve domestic supply and manage internal price pressures. South Korea is considering reinstating an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years, according to Yonhap. India has been authorized by the US to access Russian crude currently held in floating storage in the region — a measure that provides marginal relief but does not address the structural supply gap.

Egypt's president has described the country's economy as being in a "state of near-emergency." Djibouti's finance minister warned that the conflict will "bring severe economic consequences for developing countries" heavily dependent on maritime trade. The World Bank notes that more than 80% of global trade moves by sea — the Hormuz disruption is not an energy story alone; it is a global trade story with second-order effects on freight costs and delivery timelines across every import-dependent economy.

Energy Stocks Surging: Marathon Petroleum +10%, APA, Valero, Phillips 66 All +5%

While the broader equity market has taken damage — the Dow Jones fell 455 points on Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 90 points, and the Nasdaq 100 shed 365 points — the energy sector is the one area of the market where revenue and earnings estimates are being aggressively revised upward in real time.

Marathon Petroleum surged 10% last week. APA Corporation, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and EOG Resources each gained more than 5%. Diamondback Energy and ConocoPhillips were also among the top gainers. Goldman Sachs specifically flagged Chinese oil-related equities as a category that could benefit from elevated crude prices, given China's role as the world's largest oil importer and the margin expansion available to producers at $90-plus crude.

The energy sector's outperformance in a broadly declining market is textbook commodity shock dynamics: producers with existing production capacity and fixed-cost structures see margins expand dramatically when commodity prices surge, and that margin expansion more than offsets any demand destruction impact in the near term. The caveat is that refiners with significant Middle East crude exposure face feedstock disruption that could limit their ability to capitalize on high refined product margins — a dynamic that has historically created divergence between upstream producers and refinery-heavy integrated majors during supply shocks.

The Oil Price Forecast: Bullish, Buy Dips in CL=F, No Ceiling in the Near Term

WTI Crude (CL=F) is a buy. The supply disruption is not a headline risk — it is a physical reality measured in millions of barrels per day of missing production, overflowing storage tanks, and a waterway that handles 20% of global oil operating at 10% capacity. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and ING all have the same base case: prices above $100 within days under the current scenario. The extreme cases — $145 to $150 — are tied to scenarios where the conflict extends through the end of March, which Polymarket currently assigns a greater than 76% probability.

Stefano Grasso, senior portfolio manager at 8VantEdge, has stated the most concise version of the bull case: "Every additional day of disruption adds pressure, and in that scenario there is effectively no ceiling to prices in the short term." That is not hyperbole — it is a description of what happens when 20 million barrels per day disappears from a market with no short-term substitute supply source capable of filling the gap.

The risk to the bull thesis is a sudden ceasefire or a Trump-brokered diplomatic resolution that restores enough market confidence to allow tanker traffic to resume. That outcome carries a 24% probability this month per Polymarket. Even in that scenario, Rystad Energy's Zaman notes that production recovery from forced shut-ins takes weeks to months depending on field conditions — meaning prices would not immediately collapse back to $60 even if peace broke out tomorrow. The price of oil started 2026 at $60 and has risen over 50% year-to-date. Getting back to $60 requires not just a ceasefire but a complete normalization of Hormuz traffic, full repair of damaged infrastructure, storage drawdown across Gulf facilities, and a restart of shut-in production across Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, and potentially Saudi Arabia — a process measured in months, not days.

Position sizing must reflect the volatility — intraday moves of $10+ per barrel are now routine, and that requires wider stops than most energy traders are accustomed to using. But the direction is unambiguous. WTI (CL=F) is a buy on any meaningful pullback, with $100 as the near-term target, $115-$117 as the current weekend futures price already confirmed, and $145-$150 as the scenario that Hormuz closure through March produces. The only honest risk management question is position size — not direction.

That's TradingNEWS