XRP Funds Go Silent for 3 Sessions as Holders Sit on a $240M Paper Loss but Refuse to Sell

US spot XRP ETFs have gone quiet. The five-fund group recorded zero net creations or redemptions on Tuesday, October 13, the third straight session without a single share created or redeemed. The same pattern held on Friday, October 9, and Monday, October 12. October 12 was the fourth session this month with no capital movement at all.

The silence stands out against the rest of the crypto ETF market. On the same Tuesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $175.6 million, their best single day of October, while Ether ETFs broke a 10-session outflow streak with $24.8 million in inflows. XRP funds recorded nothing. Trading volume across XRP fund shares fell to just $20.5 million on October 13, the lowest of the month.

The totals have frozen in place. Cumulative net inflows held near $1.81 billion on one five-fund tracker, with combined fund assets around $1.56 billion. Total net assets have held near $1.55 billion to $1.57 billion, about 1.79% to 1.80% of XRP’s market capitalization.

The gap between those two numbers is the defining feature of the category. Investors have put roughly $1.80 billion into XRP ETFs since launch, but the funds now hold only $1.56 billion in value. That leaves a paper loss of roughly $240 million, or about 13% of everything invested. The gap was $133 million on October 2 and about $97 million on October 7, so it has nearly doubled in less than two weeks as XRP’s price fell.

XRP itself weakened again on Wednesday. The token fell 1.23% to $1.3498 after September consumer prices rose 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast, breaking the $1.3624 support level. XRP had closed at $1.497 on October 7 and $1.341 on October 13, a 10.4% decline in under a week.

The thesis for this forecast is direct: XRP ETF holders are not selling, but nobody new is buying. The absence of redemptions despite a 13% paper loss shows a sticky, conviction-driven holder base. The absence of creations shows that new institutional demand has dried up. With October Fed hike odds jumping after the CPI print and XRP below key moving averages, the most likely path is continued flat-to-negative flows until the token stabilizes.

That framing puts the weekly streak at the center of the near-term picture. XRP ETFs have recorded positive weekly inflows for 13 straight weeks. The week of October 12 to 16 has started with two zero-flow days. Without new buying by Friday, the streak will be at risk for the first time since July.

The October 5 to 9 Week: $11.31 Million In, Carried Almost Entirely by Bitwise

The last full week of data shows how narrow XRP ETF demand has become.

Spot XRP ETFs recorded $11.31 million in net inflows for the week ended October 9, extending the weekly inflow streak. That positive figure came even as XRP lost about 8% over the same five trading days.

One fund did nearly all the work. Bitwise’s XRP ETF took in $10.55 million, nearly the entire weekly total, while three of the five sessions logged zero net flow. Excluding Bitwise, every other fund combined added only about $760,000 in net. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ added $4.10 million, while Canary Capital’s XRPC recorded the week’s largest outflow at $3.34 million.

The daily detail shows the concentration. On October 6, XRP spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $3.14 million: Bitwise added $10.55 million, XRPZ lost $4.07 million and XRPC lost $3.34 million. On October 8, XRPZ added $8.17 million, which accounted for the entire session. October 5, 7 and 9 recorded zero net flows.

The week before was even thinner. During the September 28 to October 2 trading week, XRP spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $4.74 million. XRPZ led with $4.065 million and XRPC added $780,900, while Bitwise saw $101,900 in net outflows. October opened with a $4.07 million inflow into Franklin on day one, followed by a $3.28 million outflow on October 2, all from Bitwise.

The trend is decelerating. New money entering the five-fund group has remained far below the total from the September 21 to 25 trading week. Weekly inflows have shrunk from a strong late-September run to $4.74 million and then $11.31 million, with most of the latter coming from a single fund on a single day.

The flows do not track price. XRP ETF inflows measure money entering and leaving funds through creations and redemptions, and they do not establish that fund demand was strong enough to support XRP’s price. XRP fell 8% during a week of $11.31 million in inflows, showing that ETF buying is too small to offset selling elsewhere.

For the forecast, the October 5 to 9 week shows a category that is still positive on paper but increasingly dependent on sporadic purchases in one or two funds. That leaves the weekly streak fragile.

The Fund Scoreboard: Bitwise $688 Million, XRPZ $509 Million, XRPC $487 Million

The lifetime totals show which funds have won XRP ETF demand and how the race has shifted.

Bitwise leads with $688 million in cumulative net inflows, ahead of XRPZ at $509 million and XRPC at $487 million. Those three funds account for $1.684 billion of the category’s roughly $1.80 billion in cumulative inflows, or 94%. The remaining funds, including Grayscale’s GXRP and 21Shares’ product, hold the rest. Grayscale and 21Shares posted no significant flows in recent daily data.

Bitwise has pulled ahead. Bitwise remains the category’s largest magnet by cumulative inflows, after recording about $677 million at the start of October. Its $10.55 million inflow on October 6 lifted it to $688 million. Bitwise’s lead has widened over the past month as other funds have stalled.

The Bitwise XRP ETF trades on NYSE Arca under the ticker XRP and charges a unitary management fee of 0.34% a year. The fund holds XRP directly and sets its net asset value using the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate. It creates and redeems shares in blocks of 10,000.

Bitwise’s own filings show how investors have fared. At the end of June, the trust held 286.84 million XRP with a market value of $298.65 million at a price of $1.04. During the first half of 2026, the fund added roughly 181.5 million XRP through share creations worth about $269.9 million, while redemptions removed about 25.6 million XRP. That means investors kept buying through the first-half decline.

The price path explains the losses. Bitwise’s quarterly report attributes its losses to XRP’s fall from $1.82 on December 31, 2025, to $1.34 on March 31 and $1.04 on June 30. XRP has since recovered to about $1.35, but remains well below where many early ETF buyers entered.

Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ has been the most active second fund, swinging between inflows and outflows in October. Canary’s XRPC, one of the first spot XRP ETFs, has slipped into net outflows this month, with its cumulative total falling from $490 million to $487 million.

For the forecast, Bitwise is the fund to watch. With other funds largely inactive, Bitwise’s daily flows determine whether the category stays positive.

The $240 Million Paper Loss: Why Holders Are Not Selling

The most notable feature of XRP ETF flows is what is not happening. Despite deep losses, investors are not redeeming.

XRP ETFs took in $11.31 million last week as XRP fell about 8%, while fund assets fell roughly $230 million below lifetime inflows. As of Wednesday, with assets near $1.56 billion against $1.80 billion in cumulative inflows, the gap stands at roughly $240 million.

The gap has grown rapidly. On October 2, net assets of $1.658 billion sat about $133 million below $1.791 billion in lifetime inflows. On October 7, the split was about $97 million, with $1.794 billion in inflows against $1.697 billion in assets. The swing from a $97 million gap to a $240 million gap in one week reflects XRP’s drop from $1.497 to below $1.35.

Holders have absorbed the losses without fleeing. A 13% average paper loss would typically trigger redemptions from tactical investors. Instead, XRP ETFs have recorded zero outflows on most October sessions, and the only significant redemptions have been modest: $3.28 million from Bitwise on October 2, $4.07 million from XRPZ and $3.34 million from XRPC on October 6.

That stickiness contrasts with other crypto ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million in the week of October 5 to 9, Ether ETFs lost $542 million, and Solana ETFs lost $24.8 million. XRP ETFs gained $11.31 million in the same week.

Several factors explain the behavior. XRP ETF investors tend to be long-term believers in Ripple’s payments and institutional infrastructure story rather than tactical traders. Many bought specifically to hold XRP through regulated vehicles. Selling at a loss would lock in that loss.

The absence of rotation is confirmed by the data. Since XRP funds saw no outflows, the $175.6 million that entered Bitcoin funds on October 13 could not have come directly from XRP funds. To confirm capital rotation from XRP to Bitcoin, XRP funds would need to show outflows alongside Bitcoin inflows.

Stickiness has limits. If XRP falls significantly further, toward $1.25 or below, the paper loss would widen toward $400 million, and some holders may capitulate.

For the forecast, the lack of redemptions is a bullish structural signal. The lack of new buying is the bearish near-term signal. Together, they point to flat flows until a catalyst emerges.

XRP Price Context: $1.3498, Below Every Key Short-Term Average

ETF flows and XRP’s price move together, and the token’s technical picture explains why new buyers are waiting.

XRP traded at $1.3498 on Wednesday, down 1.23% after the CPI release. In the 15 minutes after the data, XRP dropped from $1.38 to $1.3574, then broke below the $1.3624 support level. The pre-CPI price stood near $1.3635. XRP’s market capitalization sits at $85.2 billion with 63.13 billion tokens in circulation.

The token sits below its key moving averages. XRP trades below its 20-day exponential moving average at $1.4247, its 50-day EMA at $1.3946 and its 200-day EMA at $1.3794. The 100-day EMA at $1.3402 is the nearest moving-average support. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 41.4.

The recent range is narrowing. XRP has fallen within a descending channel since rejecting the $1.60 to $1.66 zone. On Monday, October 12, XRP touched a low between $1.3103 and $1.3125, forming a double floor with the October 8 low of $1.3200. XRP dropped to $1.30 at one point before recovering to around $1.38.

Key levels frame the ETF outlook. Support sits at $1.31, then the 200-day simple moving average near $1.282, then $1.25. Resistance stands at $1.381, then $1.40 to $1.42. A break below $1.31 would target $1.25. A reclaim of $1.381 would target $1.42.

The longer-term picture is weak. XRP’s all-time high of $3.661 came on July 18, 2025. At $1.3498, the token sits 63% below that peak and 44% below its level a year ago. Over 30 days, XRP is roughly flat, while over seven days it has lost 6% to 9%.

ETF buyers tend to follow price momentum. Advisers and institutions usually add exposure when an asset breaks higher and pull back when it breaks lower. With XRP below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day averages, the technical setup discourages new buying.

Derivatives dominate trading. XRP futures volume of $3.82 billion a day compares with spot volume of $680 million, a 5.6-to-1 ratio. Open interest stands at $3.0 billion. Leveraged traders, not ETF buyers, drive most short-term price action.

For the forecast, XRP needs to reclaim $1.381 and its 200-day EMA before ETF inflows are likely to resume in size. A break below $1.31 would raise the risk of the first meaningful redemptions.

The CPI Shock and the Broader Crypto Flow Picture

Wednesday’s inflation data adds a macro headwind to an already stalled flow picture.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% estimate and accelerated to 2.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.278%, and October Fed rate hike odds rose to roughly 45% in futures and 55% in prediction markets.

Crypto sold off broadly. Bitcoin fell 1.98% to $81,776, Ether dropped 3.23% to $2,432.55, and Solana fell 3.7% to $104.14. XRP’s 1.23% decline was among the mildest, but it was enough to push the token below support.

The rate environment is the key headwind for crypto ETFs. XRP pays no yield, while Treasuries now pay more than 5%. Every rate increase raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Institutional allocators who might add XRP exposure through ETFs face a direct comparison with risk-free Treasury returns.

The cross-asset flow picture is mixed. Bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million in the week of October 5 to 9 before drawing $175.7 million on October 13. Ether ETFs posted a 10-session outflow streak totaling $782.8 million before breaking it with $24.8 million. Solana ETFs ended a 14-week inflow streak and have now posted seven straight days of outflows.

XRP ETFs have been the most resilient. On one Thursday this month, XRP-based ETFs recorded $8 million in net inflows while Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and Zcash ETFs posted outflows. XRP funds have avoided the large redemptions that hit other categories.

That resilience has a cost. Solana funds overtook XRP products in total assets in early October, reaching $1.91 billion. Solana fund assets have since fallen to $1.71 billion, still ahead of XRP’s $1.56 billion. XRP’s ranking among altcoin ETF categories will depend on whether its price recovers, since inflows alone cannot close the gap.

The calendar adds pressure. Thursday brings the September producer price index and retail sales. Fed officials speak through Friday before the quiet period. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday. The Fed decides on October 28.

For the forecast, the macro backdrop favors continued caution. A soft PPI and balanced Fed signals could restore risk appetite. A hot PPI and hawkish commentary would keep XRP ETF flows frozen or push them negative.

Ripple’s Ecosystem Momentum: Standard Chartered, Privy and AI Agents

While ETF flows have stalled, XRP’s underlying ecosystem continues to build, creating a disconnect between fundamentals and fund demand.

Institutional infrastructure is expanding. Standard Chartered launched institutional custody for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger on October 12 in Dubai’s financial center, working with LMAX Group. A global bank offering custody on the XRP Ledger adds credibility for institutional users.

Consumer access is growing. Privy, the Stripe-owned wallet infrastructure company, announced an embedded wallet integration with the XRP Ledger on October 13. That allows developers building on Stripe’s ecosystem to integrate XRP Ledger wallets into their applications.

AI agents are a new demand source. The XRP Ledger has processed 13 million payments by AI agents, representing 25% of network activity. AI agents executing automated payments represent a growing use case for fast, low-cost settlement networks.

Ripple’s stablecoin is growing. RLUSD has reached $2.51 billion in circulation, with $1.24 billion on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger total $278 million in distributed float.

Network upgrades are scheduled. The XRP Ledger’s fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled for October 23. The XRPL Foundation confirmed that a recently patched vulnerability did not create new XRP and that the ledger’s 100-billion token supply remains intact.

Ripple’s Swell conference runs October 27 to 29 in New York. Swell traditionally brings partnership and product announcements, and it falls the day before the Fed decision.

The disconnect is visible. Despite advances in tokenization, institutional infrastructure and ETF inflows, XRP’s price does not always reflect these developments. Ecosystem growth has not translated into new ETF demand this month.

For the forecast, the ecosystem provides the long-term case for XRP ETFs. Announcements at Swell could revive interest. But in the near term, macro conditions and price momentum dominate ETF flows.

Evernorth’s XRPN: A New Channel for XRP Exposure

A new listed vehicle for XRP exposure launched this week, and it competes directly with spot ETFs for investor capital.

Evernorth Holdings, a company holding roughly 473 million XRP in its treasury, completed a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company and began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 13. The stock debuted at $16.91, up 1.38%, and fell about 6% in premarket trading on October 14 after the CPI data. Evernorth raised roughly $300 million in gross capital.

XRPN’s holdings rival the ETFs’. At $1.3498, Evernorth’s 473 million XRP are worth about $648 million. That compares with the spot ETFs’ combined holdings of nearly 1.13 billion XRP. Evernorth alone holds more XRP than any single spot ETF; Bitwise held 286.84 million at the end of June, though its holdings have grown since.

The treasury company model differs from an ETF. Evernorth can actively deploy its XRP holdings, potentially earning yield through lending or other activities, and can issue new shares or debt to buy more XRP. Its stock price can trade at a premium or discount to its XRP holdings. Spot ETFs hold XRP passively and track the token’s price closely.

The competition for capital matters. Investors who want listed exposure to XRP now have a choice between spot ETFs and Evernorth’s stock. Some of the demand that might have flowed into ETFs this week may have gone to XRPN’s debut instead.

The Bitcoin parallel is instructive. In Bitcoin, Strategy’s corporate treasury model and spot ETFs have coexisted, each attracting different investors. Strategy bought only 250 Bitcoin in the week of October 5 to 11, its smallest weekly purchase of the year, as capital costs rose. Treasury companies depend on access to capital markets, which tightens when rates rise.

Evernorth’s first days of trading will show investor appetite for leveraged or actively managed XRP exposure. A premium to XRP holdings would signal strong demand. A discount would signal that investors prefer the simpler ETF structure.

For the forecast, XRPN is a new variable. If Evernorth attracts significant capital, it could divert demand from ETFs in the near term. Over time, a healthy treasury company sector could expand overall institutional demand for XRP.

Supply: 31.68 Billion in Escrow and the November 1 Unlock

XRP’s supply structure is unusual among major crypto assets and creates a predictable source of selling pressure that ETF demand must absorb.

Ripple holds 31.68 billion XRP in escrow, or 31.7% of the token’s fixed 100 billion supply. Another 4.74 billion sits in Ripple’s operational wallets. Each month, 1 billion XRP is released from escrow, and Ripple typically returns 700 million to 800 million to new escrow contracts. The remainder can be sold or used in Ripple’s business.

The next unlock comes November 1. The October 1 release followed the usual pattern. The monthly unlocks create a steady supply overhang that markets have learned to anticipate.

Exchange holdings are large. About 20.30 billion XRP sits on exchanges, available for immediate trading. That large exchange float means XRP has plenty of liquid supply to meet demand, which limits the price impact of ETF buying.

ETF holdings are small by comparison. The spot ETFs hold nearly 1.13 billion XRP, about 1.8% of circulating supply. Even at the peak of September’s inflows, ETF demand absorbed only a fraction of the XRP released from escrow each month.

The supply math explains the price disconnect. When ETFs record $11.31 million in weekly inflows, they buy roughly 8 million XRP at current prices. Ripple’s monthly net escrow release of 200 million to 300 million XRP, if sold, would far exceed that demand.

Corporate treasuries add a new demand source. Evernorth’s 473 million XRP represent significant buying absorbed from the market. If more treasury companies emerge, they could provide a demand channel larger than ETFs.

For the forecast, XRP’s supply structure means ETF flows need to be much larger than current levels to move the price. Weekly inflows in the low tens of millions are not enough to offset supply from escrow releases and exchange selling.

Chart Map for XRP ETF Holders: $1.31 Floor, $1.381 Trigger

The levels that matter for XRP ETF flows are the token’s own technical levels, since the funds track XRP’s price directly.

Support begins at $1.3402, the 100-day EMA. Below that, the $1.31 level forms a double floor from the October 8 and October 12 lows. The 200-day simple moving average sits near $1.282. A break below $1.31 would target $1.25. At $1.25, ETF holders’ average paper loss would widen to roughly 17%, increasing the risk of capitulation.

Resistance starts at $1.3624, the level XRP broke after the CPI data, which now acts as resistance. Above that, $1.381 aligns with the 200-day EMA at $1.3794. The 50-day EMA at $1.3946 and the 20-day EMA at $1.4247 form the next barriers. A reclaim of $1.381 would target $1.40 to $1.42.

The relationship between price and flows is clear. ETF inflows have tended to arrive during periods of price stability or modest gains, and to dry up during declines. A move back above $1.381 would likely revive inflows. A break below $1.31 would likely produce the first sustained outflows of the month.

The momentum signal is weak. The 14-day RSI at 41.4 shows bearish momentum but not oversold conditions. XRP has room to fall further before technical buyers step in.

Volume is falling. XRP fund trading volume hit a monthly low of $20.5 million on October 13. Falling ETF trading volume signals fading interest from both buyers and sellers.

The weekly picture matters. XRP has traded in a descending channel since rejecting $1.60 to $1.66 earlier this autumn. A break above the channel would signal a trend change. Until then, the trend remains lower.

For the forecast, the levels are clear. A daily close above $1.381 would support renewed ETF inflows and target $1.42. A close below $1.31 would raise redemption risk and target $1.25.

Catalysts: PPI Thursday, the Weekly Streak, Swell and October 28

The next two weeks bring several events that will decide whether XRP ETF flows resume or turn negative.

Thursday, October 15: US September PPI, retail sales and jobless claims. A hot PPI would extend the risk-off move and keep ETF flows frozen.

October 15 and 16: Fed speakers before the quiet period begins Saturday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday.

Friday, October 16: the end of the trading week. XRP ETFs need net inflows across the week to extend their 13-week streak. With two zero-flow sessions already recorded, the streak depends on buying over the remaining three sessions.

Daily: Evernorth’s XRPN trading. A premium to XRP holdings would signal strong appetite for XRP exposure. A discount would suggest weak demand.

October 23: XRP Ledger fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment activation.

October 27 to 29: Ripple’s Swell conference in New York. Partnership and product announcements could revive interest.

October 28: Fed decision. A rate hike would weigh on all crypto ETFs. A hold with balanced guidance would support renewed inflows.

October 29: US September PCE inflation.

November 1: monthly escrow unlock of 1 billion XRP.

Background factors include the strong dollar, oil prices near $106, and broader crypto liquidations. Monday’s crypto liquidation wave reached $771 million, with XRP falling 6.4%.

The sequence suggests patience. With macro data and a Fed decision ahead, investors may hold off on new XRP ETF purchases until late October.

XRP ETF Flows Forecast and Verdict: Flat to Slightly Negative, Weekly Streak at Risk

The verdict for US spot XRP ETF flows is neutral with a negative bias. The five-fund group recorded zero net flows on October 9, 12 and 13, with trading volume falling to a monthly low of $20.5 million. Cumulative inflows have frozen near $1.80 billion, while net assets of about $1.56 billion leave holders with a roughly $240 million paper loss.

The structural picture is resilient. XRP ETFs have recorded 13 straight weeks of positive inflows and avoided the large redemptions that hit Bitcoin, Ether and Solana funds in early October. Bitwise leads with $688 million in cumulative inflows, followed by XRPZ at $509 million and XRPC at $487 million. Holders have absorbed a 13% average loss without selling.

The near-term picture is weak. XRP broke below $1.3624 after the CPI print, trading at $1.3498 below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMAs. October Fed hike odds jumped to 45% to 55%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.278%. Evernorth’s new XRPN listing competes for XRP exposure capital. Ripple’s ecosystem announcements have not translated into new ETF demand.

The base case is flat to slightly negative flows through the October 28 Fed decision. Expect more zero-flow sessions, with occasional small inflows into Bitwise or XRPZ and small outflows from XRPC. The 13-week inflow streak is at serious risk this week.

The bullish path requires XRP to reclaim $1.381 and its 200-day EMA, a soft PPI and positive news from Swell. That combination could restore weekly inflows of $10 million to $20 million and target XRP at $1.42.

The bearish path runs through a break below $1.31. At that level, the paper loss would widen toward $300 million and test holders’ patience. A move to $1.25 would likely trigger the first meaningful redemptions of the month, potentially $10 million to $30 million over several sessions.

Forecast: weekly flows between -$10 million and +$10 million through late October, with the 13-week inflow streak more likely to end than extend. A daily XRP close above $1.381 would shift the outlook toward renewed inflows. A close below $1.31 would shift it toward the first sustained outflows since launch. The holder base has proven sticky; what the category lacks is new buyers, and those are unlikely to arrive while XRP trades below every key short-term average and the Fed is debating another hike.

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