XRP ($1.38) Adds $4.1B in Market Value as RLUSD Tops $2.5B — Path to $1.55 Runs Through $1.48

XRP ($1.38) Adds $4.1B in Market Value as RLUSD Tops $2.5B — Path to $1.55 Runs Through $1.48

Spot XRP ETFs ended a 13-week inflow streak with a $1.84M weekly outflow while ledger payment volume fell 72.3% | That's TradingNEWS

Itai Smidt 10/21/2026 12:27:14 PM
Crypto XRP/USD XRPI XRPR XRP

Key Points

  • XRP rises to $1.38, a 9.9% rebound from its October 18 to 19 low of $1.2553.
  • Spot XRP ETFs posted a $1.84 million weekly outflow, ending a 13-week inflow streak.
  • Up to 1 billion XRP becomes eligible for escrow release at 00:00 UTC on November 1.

XRP traded at $1.38 on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, up 2.96% to 4.5% over 24 hours depending on the venue, after breaking through resistance at $1.33 to $1.35 during the European session. The token sat at $1.2985 in early UTC trading, carved a daily low of $1.2869, traded at $1.35 by 8:00 a.m. ET and pushed higher as the broader crypto market lifted with U.S. equities. Its market value rose by $4.1 billion over 24 hours. At $1.38 on a circulating supply of 63.13 billion tokens, XRP carries a market capitalization of $87.1 billion, ranking fifth among crypto assets. Fully diluted value across the fixed 100 billion supply stands at $138 billion.

The rebound starts from a deep low. XRP bottomed at $1.2553 on October 18 to 19, and at $1.38 it has gained 9.9% off that level in three sessions. The move came after a 14% drop in the first two weeks of October, driven by heavy long liquidations as sticky U.S. inflation pushed rate expectations higher. XRP traded near $1.49 on October 1, $1.40 on October 10 and $1.55 on September 26, so the current price remains 7.4% below the start of the month and 11% below late September.

Trading activity surged with the move. Spot volume rose 34.65% to $1.94 billion over 24 hours. Derivatives volume climbed 21.27% to $13.79 billion, seven times spot volume, and open interest rose 6% to $6.94 billion. Liquidations totaled $4.4 million, with 80% coming from short positions and shorts losing $2.3 million. Those figures show the rebound began as a squeeze in derivatives, with spot demand following.

This forecast runs on one thesis. XRP’s rebound is a leveraged bounce inside a broader downtrend, while the real growth in the Ripple ecosystem is happening in its RLUSD stablecoin rather than in demand for the XRP token itself. RLUSD passed $2.5 billion in market value with more than $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger, and Standard Chartered, Cross River and DriveWealth all announced RLUSD integrations in October. Over the same period, spot XRP ETFs ended a 13-week inflow streak, ledger payment volume dropped 72.3% below its 30-day average, and XRP fell 14%. For the rebound to become a trend, XRP needs to reclaim $1.40 and then the $1.48 realized price, where the average holder breaks even. A failure sends it back toward $1.29 before the November 1 escrow release of 1 billion tokens.

The broader crypto backdrop supports the bounce. Bitcoin broke above $84,000 after the U.S. equity open and tagged $84,600. Ether broke $2,500 for the first time since October 14. XRP outperformed a broad crypto index on the day, which rose 3.14% against XRP’s 4.56% in the morning snapshot.

October’s Slide: From $1.49 to $1.2553 in 18 Days

XRP’s October began with a scheduled supply event and ended its first half with a liquidation flush. On October 1, Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow in four transfers of 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million tokens, worth $1.49 billion at the time. Within hours, Ripple placed 700 million XRP back into escrow in two transactions of 400 million and 300 million, leaving 300 million outside escrow from that month’s release. The price held near $1.49 through the release.

The selling came over the next two weeks. XRP fell to $1.40 by October 10 and kept sliding as U.S. inflation data reset rate expectations. September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, and the October 14 release pushed odds of an October Fed hike to near 50%. That repricing triggered long liquidations across crypto, and XRP, with derivatives volume running several times spot volume, took one of the larger hits. The token traded at $1.2893 on October 17 and touched $1.2553 on October 18 to 19.

The slide left XRP below the cost basis of most holders. The realized price, which measures the average price at which circulating tokens last moved on-chain, sits near $1.48. At $1.27 on October 18, roughly 60% of circulating supply was held at a loss. At $1.38, XRP remains 6.8% below that realized price, which means most holders are still underwater even after the rebound. That positioning creates supply overhead: holders who bought between $1.40 and $1.60 may sell to break even as price approaches their entry.

Exchange flows added to the pressure during the decline. Net inflows to Binance averaged 9.3 million XRP per day in the week before October 18, with large single-day transfers of 22 million XRP on October 13 and 29 million XRP on October 14. Rising exchange balances typically precede selling, since holders move tokens to exchanges to trade them. As of early October, 20.30 billion XRP sat on tracked exchanges.

The longer-term picture shows how far XRP has fallen. The token’s all-time high was $3.661 on July 18, 2025, and at $1.38 it trades 62% below that peak. One year ago, it traded at $2.40, so XRP is down 42.5% year over year. Three months ago, it traded at $1.09, which means the current price is still 26.6% above the summer low despite October’s decline.

Short Squeeze Mechanics: $2.3 Million in Short Liquidations, Open Interest Up 6%

The derivatives market drove the first leg of Wednesday’s move. Of the $4.4 million in total liquidations over 24 hours, 80% came from short positions, with shorts losing $2.3 million. Forced short covering requires buying XRP back, and that buying lifted price through the $1.33 to $1.35 resistance zone where shorts had clustered after the October decline.

Positioning data showed shorts dominated ahead of the move. Net short exposure stood at 389.8 million against net long exposure of negative 350.7 million, which meant short positions outweighed longs even as price began recovering from $1.2553. That imbalance created the fuel for a squeeze once price turned higher.

Open interest rose 6% to $6.94 billion during the rebound. Rising open interest alongside rising price usually signals new long positions entering, not just shorts covering. If the move were purely short covering, open interest would fall as positions closed. The 6% rise suggests traders are adding fresh long exposure, which makes the move more durable than a pure squeeze but also adds leverage that can unwind on a reversal.

Derivatives volume of $13.79 billion against spot volume of $1.94 billion shows how much of XRP’s trading happens in leveraged products. That ratio, above 7 to 1, means price discovery is driven by perpetual futures and margin trading more than by spot buyers. It also means XRP is more exposed to liquidation cascades in both directions than assets with deeper spot markets.

Momentum indicators turned higher with the bounce. Short-term relative strength rose near 69.4, medium-term near 61.8 and longer-term near 54.1. The moving average convergence divergence histogram flipped positive. The commodity channel index reached 151.6, a reading that signals strong short-term momentum but also shows XRP may be stretched after a 9.9% move off the low.

The squeeze has likely cleared the nearest short cluster. Liquidations of $2.3 million are small relative to XRP’s $6.94 billion in open interest, which suggests most shorts remain in place at higher levels. The next cluster likely sits near $1.40, the October 10 price and a round-number resistance. A push through $1.40 could trigger a second wave of covering toward $1.42 to $1.48. A failure at $1.38 to $1.40 would leave the fresh longs that entered on the bounce exposed, and a drop back below $1.35 could liquidate them.

Spot XRP ETFs: First Weekly Outflow in Three Months

Institutional demand through U.S. spot XRP ETFs has stalled. The funds recorded $1.84 million in net outflows during the week of October 12 to 16, ending a 13-week streak of positive inflows that began in July. Flows were flat on October 12 and 13. On October 14, the funds took in $740,400, all into the Bitwise XRP ETF. On October 15, they recorded a $104,500 outflow, followed by a $2.47 million outflow on October 16, the second straight day of withdrawals. Without the Friday redemption, the group would have finished the week with $630,000 in net inflows.

The outflow was small but the trend is clear. The week before, ended October 9, the funds took in $11.31 million. The week of September 28 to October 2 saw $4.74 million in inflows, led by Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ with $4.07 million and Canary’s XRPC with $780,900. Weekly inflows have been shrinking for several weeks before turning negative.

The cumulative picture remains positive. Spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.80 billion in net inflows since the complex listed in November 2025. Over the 30 sessions from September 4 through October 16, inflows totaled $118.3 million. The Bitwise XRP ETF leads with $681.8 million in cumulative inflows, 39.2% of the total, followed by XRPZ at $505 million and XRPC at $490 million. As of early October, the funds held 1.19 billion XRP, equal to 1.9% of circulating supply.

ETF holders are underwater. Total net assets stood at $1.47 billion as of October 16, against $1.80 billion in cumulative contributions. That $330 million gap means investors who bought through ETFs have collectively lost money on their positions. Underwater holders tend to sell on rallies toward their cost basis, which adds supply as XRP recovers.

Bitwise’s filings show the drawdown in detail. As of June 30, 2026, the fund held 286,838,446 XRP at a cost of $480.06 million and a fair value of $299.23 million, a 38% unrealized loss at the time. Net assets had grown from $241.37 million at the end of 2025 to $299.15 million by mid-2026, driven by inflows rather than price gains.

For XRP’s price, the ETF picture means institutional buying is no longer providing steady support. The 13-week streak absorbed supply during XRP’s decline, and its end removes one of the token’s few consistent buyers. A return to weekly inflows would signal that institutions view the drop below $1.30 as a buying opportunity. Another week of outflows would confirm that ETF demand has turned.

RLUSD Passes $2.5 Billion as Banks Integrate the Stablecoin

The strongest growth in the Ripple ecosystem this month has come from its dollar-backed stablecoin, not from XRP. RLUSD’s market value passed $2.5 billion, with more than $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger. As of early October, RLUSD stood at $2.51 billion, with $1.24 billion, or 49%, on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum. More than $1.3 trillion has been settled on the ledger to date.

Four institutional announcements in October expanded RLUSD’s reach. On October 12, Standard Chartered launched institutional custody for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, working with Ripple and LMAX Group to make RLUSD eligible collateral for certain LMAX products under its collateral mirroring model. On October 14, DriveWealth, which powers investing for more than 100 partners, announced it is integrating RLUSD on the XRP Ledger for settlement in Europe, with plans to expand to the United States. The same day, South Korea’s Meritz Securities partnered with Ripple to explore custody and tokenization. On October 15, Cross River said it is embedding RLUSD into its core banking platform, letting issuers and acquirers settle intraday with lower latency.

Other ecosystem developments followed. Ripple partnered with Stripe-owned Privy to bring embedded wallets to the XRP Ledger. Ripple burned 15 million RLUSD in a treasury move. Franklin Templeton’s tokenized value on the XRP Ledger rose more than 6,000%. Distributed tokenized real-world assets on the ledger total $278 million, alongside $4.06 billion of platform-locked registry notionals reported by issuing platforms.

The link between RLUSD growth and XRP’s price is indirect. RLUSD transactions on the XRP Ledger pay network fees in XRP, which are burned, but those fees are tiny relative to XRP’s $87.1 billion market value. Banks using RLUSD for settlement do not need to hold XRP beyond small reserve amounts. The adoption story strengthens the XRP Ledger as infrastructure without creating proportional demand for the XRP token.

That disconnect explains why XRP fell 14% in early October while Ripple announced its busiest stretch of partnerships of the year. Ripple activity and XRP demand are separate measures. Investors buying XRP on the strength of RLUSD announcements are betting that ledger usage will eventually translate into token value, through higher fees, liquidity demand for cross-border payments, or Ripple’s own use of XRP in its products.

For the forecast, RLUSD adoption sets a positive long-term backdrop but does not drive near-term price. Ripple’s Swell conference in New York from October 27 to 29 could bring further RLUSD and institutional announcements, which would support sentiment, but the October pattern suggests those announcements alone will not reverse a downtrend.

XRP Ledger Activity: Payment Volume Down 72.3%, Upgrade on October 23

On-chain activity tells a weaker story than the partnership headlines. XRP Ledger payment volume reached 119.5 million XRP on October 17, down 72.3% from its 30-day average. That collapse in payment activity coincided with the ETF outflow week and the price decline, showing that usage of XRP for transfers fell alongside investor demand.

The ledger has seen technical improvements. The BatchV1_1 and fixBatchV1_2 amendments activated on October 9, allowing up to eight inner transactions per batch, which lets applications bundle multiple operations into a single submission. Batch processing works, but usage has to follow for it to affect demand.

The next network upgrade lands on October 23. A cleanup package has gathered 29 validator votes and targets technical fixes. It does not enable native lending, a feature that would require separate validator approval. Native lending on the XRP Ledger would allow users to borrow against XRP or RLUSD directly on the ledger, which could create new demand for the token as collateral. Until that feature passes, the October 23 upgrade is a maintenance release rather than a demand catalyst.

The upgrade adds a short-term event to watch. Network upgrades can produce volatility as traders position ahead of activation, and Wednesday’s rebound came partly ahead of the October 23 date. A smooth activation would remove one source of uncertainty. Any technical issue would weigh on sentiment.

Ledger activity matters for XRP’s long-term value because the token’s case rests on its use as a bridge currency and settlement asset. If payment volume stays 70% below its recent average, the argument that institutional adoption will drive token demand weakens. If volume recovers as RLUSD integrations go live with DriveWealth, Cross River and Standard Chartered clients, ledger fees and XRP reserve requirements would rise.

The divergence between RLUSD growth and XRP payment volume is the clearest data point in the Ripple ecosystem this month. Stablecoin settlement on the ledger is growing. XRP-denominated payments are shrinking. That pattern suggests institutions prefer to settle in dollar-pegged tokens rather than in a volatile asset, which is rational for them but limits the demand pull for XRP.

For traders, the October 23 upgrade is a near-term catalyst with limited fundamental weight. The more important on-chain signal will be whether payment volume recovers toward its 30-day average in the coming weeks, which would confirm that the October drop was temporary.

The November 1 Escrow: Up to 1 Billion XRP Unlocks at 8 p.m. ET October 31

XRP’s supply schedule adds a known event at the end of the month. Ripple’s next escrow window opens at 00:00 UTC on November 1, which is 8:00 p.m. ET on October 31, when two ledger escrow objects containing a combined 1 billion XRP become eligible for release. As of October 18, 31.40 billion XRP remained in Ripple-controlled escrow, 31.4% of the original 100 billion supply. Ripple also holds 4.74 billion XRP in operational wallets.

The release follows a predictable pattern. Ripple created the escrow system in 2017 to make XRP supply changes transparent, with 1 billion tokens unlocking each month. Ripple typically returns most of each release to new escrow contracts. In October, it unlocked 1 billion XRP and re-locked 700 million, leaving 300 million outside escrow. Across the 12 releases from November 2025 through October 2026, 12 billion XRP was unlocked and 8.4 billion was re-escrowed, leaving 3.6 billion outside escrow over the period. That averages 300 million XRP per month.

At $1.38, 300 million XRP equals $414 million. The amount that remains outside escrow does not all enter circulation or get sold. Ripple uses it for operations, ecosystem initiatives, partnerships and other activities, and the escrow data does not establish how much is sold on the market. Still, the monthly release adds potential supply that markets have learned to price.

The escrow schedule matters for positioning into month-end. Traders who expect selling from released tokens often reduce exposure ahead of the first of the month, which can weigh on price in the final days of October. If Ripple re-locks its usual 700 million and the remaining 300 million moves to operational wallets without appearing on exchanges, the event typically passes without lasting price impact, as it did on October 1 when XRP held near $1.49.

The escrow date falls one day after the October 30 crypto options expiry. Bitcoin’s monthly expiry carries 148,585 BTC with max pain at $79,000, and XRP options expire alongside. Dealer hedging into the expiry tends to compress prices across crypto, and the escrow release follows within hours. That clustering makes the final 48 hours of October a period of elevated supply and positioning risk for XRP.

The long-term supply picture is stable. With 31.40 billion XRP still in escrow and roughly 300 million leaving each month, the escrow would take years to exhaust at the current pace. The monthly release is a known factor, not a shock, and its impact depends on whether demand absorbs the new supply.

XRP Versus Bitcoin and Ether: A Beta Trade on the Crypto Rebound

XRP’s Wednesday move tracked the broader crypto recovery. Bitcoin rose to $84,355 after breaking above $84,000 for the first time since October 7, and ether broke $2,500 to trade at $2,518. Total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.88 trillion, up 1.6%. XRP outperformed a broad crypto index in the morning session, gaining 4.56% against the index’s 3.14%, which reflects its higher beta to risk-on moves.

The rebound across crypto was led by Zcash, Hyperliquid and Ethereum among the top assets, with XRP following. That leadership pattern shows XRP participating in the bounce rather than driving it. When crypto rallies on macro relief and short covering, XRP tends to move with or slightly ahead of the market because of its heavy derivatives exposure.

The relative picture over October is weaker. Bitcoin is up from its October lows and trades near the top of its two-week range, while XRP remains 7.4% below its October 1 level. Ether trades 6.6% below its October 1 level. XRP’s 14% decline in the first half of October was steeper than bitcoin’s drawdown, and its recovery has not yet closed that gap.

The equity link is clear in the timing. Bitcoin broke $84,000 after the U.S. equity open, when Nasdaq futures rose on SpaceX and Super Micro Computer results. SpaceX reported revenue of $14.58 billion and AI capital spending of $16.44 billion, and Super Micro preannounced quarterly sales of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion. AI hardware stocks recovered $274 billion of market value premarket, and crypto followed the equity bid.

The macro backdrop limits how far the bounce can run. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.12%, and the Federal Reserve is priced for a 16% chance of an October hike and 89% to 94% for December. High rates weigh on all non-yielding assets, and XRP’s lack of a native yield mechanism leaves it exposed to that comparison. Brent crude near $109 keeps inflation sticky.

Meta Platforms and Tesla report after Wednesday’s U.S. close. With crypto trading in step with the Nasdaq, a strong Meta capex print would extend the risk bid into Thursday and support XRP above $1.35. A weak print would hit tech stocks and likely pull XRP back toward $1.30 to $1.33.

For XRP, the beta relationship means its direction in the next week depends heavily on bitcoin holding above $84,000. If bitcoin breaks out toward $87,220, XRP could test $1.48. If bitcoin falls back into its range below $83,000, XRP is likely to retest $1.29.

Technical Levels: $1.40 Ceiling, $1.48 Realized Price, $1.29 Floor

The level map around $1.38 has a clear sequence. The first resistance is $1.40, the October 10 price and a round number where short positions likely cluster. A break above $1.40 opens $1.42, the upper bound of October’s monthly forecast range, then $1.48, the realized price where the average holder breaks even. The $1.50 round number sits just above, followed by $1.55, the September 26 level, and $1.57, the price 30 days ago.

On the downside, $1.35 is the first support, the level XRP broke through during Wednesday’s European session and the top of the prior resistance zone. Below it, $1.33 is the lower edge of that zone. The $1.29 to $1.30 area is a major support where XRP rebounded on Tuesday and where it traded through mid-October. Below that, $1.2553 is the October 18 to 19 low, followed by $1.25, $1.21 and $1.13.

Distances from $1.38 define the risk. The upside to $1.40 is 1.4%, to $1.48 is 7.2%, and to $1.55 is 12.3%. The downside to $1.35 is 2.2%, to $1.29 is 6.5%, to $1.2553 is 9.0%, and to $1.21 is 12.3%.

The realized price at $1.48 is the most important level on the chart. Above it, the majority of holders move into profit, which reduces selling pressure from those trying to break even. Below it, every rally toward $1.48 meets supply from holders exiting at cost. With roughly 60% of supply at a loss at $1.27, the zone from $1.38 to $1.48 is dense with potential sellers.

Momentum supports a test of $1.40. Short-term relative strength near 69.4 and a positive MACD histogram show buyers in control on shorter timeframes. The commodity channel index at 151.6 shows the move is stretched, which raises the risk of a pullback before the next leg. A consolidation between $1.35 and $1.40 would allow momentum to reset without breaking structure.

The broader trend remains down. XRP trades below its October 1 level of $1.49, below the realized price and below its September highs. A sequence of higher lows since October 19 is the first sign of a potential trend change, but it needs a close above $1.48 to confirm.

Catalysts: XRPL Upgrade October 23, Swell October 27–29, Fed October 28, Escrow November 1

XRP faces a dense calendar over the next 11 days. Meta Platforms and Tesla report after Wednesday’s U.S. close, setting the tone for risk assets into Thursday. Spot XRP ETF flow data for the week of October 19 to 23 will show whether the outflow week was a one-off or the start of a trend. A return to inflows would support the rebound.

The XRP Ledger upgrade activates on October 23 with 29 validator votes behind its cleanup package. It targets technical fixes and does not enable native lending. A smooth activation removes uncertainty, and any comment on the native lending timeline would draw attention.

Ripple’s Swell conference runs from October 27 to 29 in New York. Swell is Ripple’s main annual event, and announcements there often include new partnerships, product launches and executive commentary on XRP’s role in Ripple’s products. After a month of RLUSD integrations with Standard Chartered, Cross River, DriveWealth and Meritz Securities, Swell could bring further institutional news.

The Federal Reserve meets October 27 to 28, with its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28. A press conference that frames December as the last hike would ease rate pressure and support crypto. A hawkish signal would weigh on XRP alongside other risk assets. September PCE inflation arrives on October 29.

The month closes with two supply events. The October 30 crypto options expiry concentrates dealer hedging, and the November 1 escrow window opens at 8:00 p.m. ET on October 31 with up to 1 billion XRP eligible for release. Ripple has historically re-locked 700 million of each release, leaving 300 million outside escrow.

The calendar means XRP’s rebound will be tested repeatedly. The October 23 upgrade and Swell are positive catalysts with limited direct demand impact. The Fed decision and the escrow release are risk events. The most likely path is a range between $1.29 and $1.48 through the end of the month, with direction set by bitcoin and the Fed.

Forecast Scenarios: $1.48 Upside, $1.29 Downside, $1.40 Pivot

The bullish scenario needs a break above $1.40 and a sustained crypto rally. If bitcoin holds above $84,000 and extends toward $87,220, and Meta’s capex print supports the AI and tech trade, XRP would clear $1.40 and trigger short covering toward $1.42 and the $1.48 realized price, 7.2% above current levels. A return to weekly ETF inflows and positive announcements at Swell would add fuel. A close above $1.48 would move most holders into profit and open $1.55, 12.3% higher, and $1.57, the late-September level. Open interest rising alongside price, rather than falling, would confirm fresh demand.

The bearish scenario starts with a failure at $1.40. If XRP stalls at $1.38 to $1.40 and the CCI reading at 151.6 resolves through a pullback, longs who entered on the bounce would face liquidation below $1.35. A weak Meta print, bitcoin dropping back below $83,000, or another week of ETF outflows would push XRP toward $1.33, then the $1.29 to $1.30 support, 6.5% below. A break of $1.29 would retest the $1.2553 low, 9.0% below, and open $1.21. Escrow-related selling around November 1 and a hawkish Fed would deepen that path.

The base case is a range with an upward bias into Swell. XRP is most likely to trade between $1.29 and $1.48 through the end of October, with the October 23 upgrade and Swell offering sentiment support, and the Fed decision and escrow release creating risk. The higher-low pattern since October 19 favors the upper half of that range, $1.35 to $1.45, as long as bitcoin holds its breakout.

The pivot is $1.40. A daily close above it confirms the squeeze has turned into a recovery and opens $1.48. A daily close back below $1.35 confirms the move was a short-covering bounce and points to $1.29.

Verdict: Neutral-to-Bullish Below $1.40, Bullish Above $1.48

XRP at $1.38 is neutral-to-bullish after a 9.9% rebound from its $1.2553 low, with a confirmed bullish turn only above the $1.48 realized price. The bounce carries real momentum: spot volume rose 34.65% to $1.94 billion, open interest rose 6% to $6.94 billion, 80% of liquidations came from shorts, and market value rose $4.1 billion in 24 hours. Bitcoin’s break above $84,000 and ether’s break above $2,500 support the crypto-wide risk bid that carried XRP through its $1.33 to $1.35 resistance.

The Ripple ecosystem is growing. RLUSD passed $2.5 billion with more than $1 billion on the XRP Ledger, and Standard Chartered, Cross River, DriveWealth and Meritz Securities all announced integrations or partnerships in October. Tokenized assets on the ledger are expanding, and Swell from October 27 to 29 could add more institutional news.

The demand for XRP itself is weaker. Spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in outflows for the week of October 12 to 16, ending a 13-week inflow streak, and ETF holders sit on a collective $330 million loss with $1.47 billion in net assets against $1.80 billion in contributions. Ledger payment volume fell 72.3% below its 30-day average. Roughly 60% of circulating supply was held at a loss at $1.27, and the realized price at $1.48 marks a supply wall. The November 1 escrow release adds up to 1 billion tokens to the eligible supply, with 300 million typically remaining outside escrow.

The levels decide the call. A close above $1.40 opens $1.48, and a close above $1.48 opens $1.55 and $1.57. A close below $1.35 returns XRP to the $1.29 support and puts the $1.2553 low back in play. Meta tonight, the October 23 ledger upgrade, Swell, the October 28 Fed decision and the November 1 escrow window set the path through the end of the month.

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