XRPI and XRPR Bounce With XRP, but $10.25M in October Inflows and a 1B Token Unlock Cap the Upside

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPI) traded at $7.10 on Tuesday afternoon, up $0.12, or 1.72%, from Monday’s close of $6.98. It opened at $6.97 and moved between $6.96 and $7.21. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (CBOE:XRPR) last printed at $10.63 in Monday evening trading, and with XRP up about 2% on Tuesday, its value implies roughly $10.85 to $10.95. XRP itself recovered to about $1.33 by the end of Tuesday’s session after trading between $1.29 and $1.34.

The thesis for this forecast is direct. Both funds give investors XRP exposure in a brokerage account, but neither is the cheapest or cleanest way to hold the token, and the market they track has lost its institutional bid. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in just $10.25 million in October through October 16, against $121.4 million in September, and posted their first weekly outflow since early July. With 1 billion XRP set to leave Ripple’s escrow on November 1, the near-term bias for XRP, and for both funds, points lower. XRPI carries a 1.68% expense ratio plus futures roll costs. XRPR charges 0.75%. Both trail lower-cost spot funds charging 0.19% to 0.34%.

The two funds sit well below their highs. XRPI’s 52-week range runs from $5.42 to $16.06. At $7.10, it trades 55.8% below its high and 31.0% above its low. XRPR’s 52-week range runs from $8.10 to $22.26. At $10.63, it sits 52.2% below its high and 31.2% above its low. Both declines mirror XRP’s fall from its all-time high of $3.661 in July 2025 to $1.33 today, a drop of 63.7%.

The structures differ fundamentally. XRPI holds CME XRP futures contracts and rolls them monthly, using Treasury bills as collateral. XRPR holds XRP directly and through a European exchange-traded product. That difference shapes how well each fund tracks XRP over time.

The levels that matter sit in XRP. Support sits at $1.29, then $1.25, then $1.24. Resistance sits at $1.3038, then $1.34, then $1.38 and $1.40. Each 1% move in XRP moves both funds by about 1%.

XRPI: XRP Exposure Through CME Futures at 1.68%

XRPI is the structural outlier among XRP funds. Volatility Shares launched it on May 22, 2025, making it one of the earliest XRP-linked funds in the United States. It predates the spot XRP ETFs, which arrived after regulators approved direct token holdings. Rather than holding XRP, XRPI holds CME XRP futures contracts.

The futures structure has costs. XRPI lists a management fee of 1.15% and a total expense ratio of 1.68%. That is nearly nine times the 0.19% charged by Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ and almost five times the 0.34% charged by the Bitwise XRP ETF. On a $10,000 position, XRPI costs about $168 a year in fees, against $19 for XRPZ and $34 for Bitwise’s fund.

Roll costs add a second drag. Futures contracts expire, so XRPI must sell expiring contracts and buy the next month’s contracts. When later-dated futures trade above near-dated ones, a pattern called contango, each roll costs the fund money. That cost does not appear in the expense ratio but shows up in returns. Over months, roll costs can cause a futures fund to lag the spot price meaningfully.

The fund’s size has moved with the market. XRPI reported net assets of $113.09 million on September 23, with a net asset value of $8.08. That compared with $84.1 million on August 5, after a $591,100 redemption. The rise from August to September reflected XRP’s rally and some new money.

Tuesday’s trading was orderly. XRPI’s range of $6.96 to $7.21 represented a 3.6% spread from low to high. Its 1.72% gain tracked XRP’s daily move closely. Over a single day, futures funds usually track spot well. The drift appears over weeks and months.

XRPI fits a specific investor. Some institutions and advisers prefer regulated futures exposure over holding crypto tokens, for custody or compliance reasons. XRPI served that market before spot funds existed. Now that six spot XRP ETFs trade with lower fees, XRPI’s main advantage has narrowed.

XRPR: The First Spot XRP ETF, Built in Two Layers

XRPR has a distinct place in XRP fund history. REX-Osprey launched it on the Cboe BZX Exchange on September 18, 2025, making it the first U.S.-listed ETF to offer exposure to spot XRP. It arrived before Canary Capital’s launch and before the wave of spot XRP ETFs that followed.

The fund holds XRP through two channels. As of October 9, XRPR held 59.83% of its assets in XRP directly, about $29.43 million, or 21,260,382 tokens. It held another 40.14%, about $19.75 million, in CoinShares Physical XRP, a European exchange-traded product backed by XRP. A Cayman Islands subsidiary holds the crypto assets, which allowed REX-Osprey to offer XRP exposure under the Investment Company Act before spot approvals.

The two-layer structure adds cost. XRPR charges 0.75% a year, the highest fee among the spot XRP ETFs. The European product it holds carries its own embedded fees, which add to the total cost. On a $10,000 position, XRPR’s headline fee costs $75 a year, before the ETP’s fees.

The fund has shrunk. On October 9, XRPR held $49.07 million in assets, with 4.35 million shares outstanding and a net asset value of $11.31. Its closing price that day was $11.28, a 0.25% discount to net asset value. The median bid-ask spread stood at 0.97%, wide for an ETF. Earlier in the year, the fund held more than $100 million in assets.

XRPR’s performance shows XRP’s volatility. From its September 2025 launch through June 2026, its net asset value fell 65.81%, as XRP dropped from above $3 at launch to near $1.00 in early summer. In the first half of 2026 alone, the fund’s net asset value fell 43.34%.

The fund tracks XRP closely despite its structure. On September 23, XRPR’s net asset value stood at $12.28 with XRP near $1.49, a ratio of about 8.24. On Monday, its $10.63 price with XRP near $1.29 implies a ratio of about 8.24. The ratio has held steady over four weeks, which shows XRPR’s holdings move with spot XRP as intended.

Spot XRP ETF Flows Fell 92% From September

Fund demand has dried up in October. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in $10.25 million in October through October 16, against $121.4 million in September, a decline of 92%. Flows were zero in four of seven trading sessions in mid-October.

The weekly data show the turn. The funds posted $1.84 million in net outflows for the week ended October 16, their first weekly outflow since July 7. That ended a 13-week streak of inflows. The week before brought $11.31 million of inflows, and the week before that about $4.7 million. The trend has moved from strong inflows to a trickle to a small outflow.

The daily detail is thin. Early in the week ended October 16, the funds were largely flat. They took in about $740,000 on Wednesday, October 14. Outflows of $104,510 followed on October 15. On Friday, October 16, a $2.47 million redemption from Canary Capital’s XRPC tipped the week into the red.

Monday’s flows were close to zero. SoSoValue reported $0.00 net flow for October 19. One holdings tracker measured a small inflow of 708,271 XRP, about $920,800, based on day-over-day changes in reported fund holdings. Either way, Monday brought no meaningful new institutional demand.

The cumulative picture remains positive. Spot XRP ETFs have taken in about $1.80 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch. October’s flows of $10.25 million equal 0.6% of that total.

Trading volume has fallen with flows. Weekly trading volume across the spot XRP ETFs dropped to $123.01 million in the week ended October 16 from $200.84 million the week before, a decline of 38.8%. Lower volume means less investor interest and wider effective spreads.

The flow trend matters for both funds. XRPR is one of the six spot funds and competes directly for that shrinking pool of new money. XRPI sits outside the spot category but draws on the same investor interest in XRP.

Net Assets Fell $300 Million From the September Peak

The value of XRP fund holdings has fallen sharply. Total net assets across U.S. spot XRP ETFs fell to about $1.47 billion to $1.48 billion in mid-October from a peak of $1.77 billion on September 25. That is a decline of about $290 million to $300 million, or 16.4%.

The drop came mostly from price. Cumulative inflows barely moved over the period, so the fall in net assets reflects XRP’s decline rather than investors pulling money. XRP traded near $1.51 at its late September high and fell to $1.29 to $1.33 by October 20, a decline of about 12% to 15%.

The token count tells the clearer story. As of the October 19 close, the six U.S. spot XRP ETFs, XRPC, XRP, XRPZ, GXRP, TOXR and XRPR, held 1.17 billion XRP with $1.53 billion in net assets, according to one holdings tracker. Including the XRP held by the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, the total reached 1.19 billion XRP and $1.56 billion. That equals about 1.19% of XRP’s fixed 100 billion token supply.

The share of market cap is small. Net assets of $1.47 billion to $1.48 billion equal about 1.80% of XRP’s market capitalization. That compares with about 6.4% for Bitcoin ETFs, 5.04% for Ether ETFs and 2.64% for Solana ETFs. XRP’s fund market is less developed than Bitcoin’s or Ether’s.

Holders are under water. The average cost basis across XRP ETF holders sits near $1.478. At $1.33, XRP needs to rise about 11% for the average holder to break even. Collectively, investors in the funds sit at a loss of roughly $330 million. Holders at a loss sometimes sell into rallies to recover their money, which can cap price gains.

Concentration is high. Three funds hold about 82% of the spot XRP ETF assets. Smaller funds such as XRPR, with $49 million, account for a small share. Fee competition favors the largest and cheapest funds, which leaves higher-cost products like XRPR at a disadvantage in drawing new money.

XRP Price: $1.33 After a 12.5% October Slide

The underlying token has struggled. XRP recovered to about $1.33 on Tuesday from a morning low of $1.29. It has fallen about 12.5% in October and sits 26.9% lower for the year. The market cap stands at about $83.87 billion on a circulating supply of 63.13 billion XRP.

The month’s path was steady decline. XRP traded near $1.51 in late September. It fell through $1.40 on October 10 and slid toward $1.30 in mid-October. A 7% weekly loss through October 19 took it to $1.31 before Tuesday’s bounce. The September average was $1.49, and the October average is about $1.34.

Exchange data point to selling pressure. XRP reserves across all exchanges reached 11.81 billion tokens on October 17. Deposits to exchanges totaled 6.05 billion XRP over 30 days, a seven-month high. Large holders withdrawing XRP from Binance fell to $49.7 million over 90 days, a five-year low. Tokens moving onto exchanges usually signal intent to sell, while withdrawals signal intent to hold.

Leverage has unwound. Open interest on Binance fell 15.8% during the mid-October decline. The drop shows traders closing leveraged positions rather than opening new ones. Deleveraging reduces the risk of forced selling but also removes speculative demand.

On-chain activity sent mixed signals. The total dollar value of XRP transferred on the XRP Ledger rose to $49.70 billion as prices hovered near $1.25 support. Large transfers can reflect institutional movements or exchange rebalancing. But payment volume fell 72.3% to 119.5 million XRP on October 17, well below the 30-day average of 629.3 million XRP. One weak day does not set a trend, but the drop added to caution.

The broader crypto market recovered on Tuesday. Bitcoin rose to $83,042 after a $526.6 million spot ETF inflow on Monday. Ether rose 1.77% to $2,436. XRP’s gain of about 2% to 2.5% roughly matched the market. The rebound came without any XRP-specific catalyst.

The November 1 Escrow Unlock: 1 Billion XRP

The next catalyst is a supply event. On November 1, 1 billion XRP will be released from Ripple’s escrow, as happens on the first of every month. Ripple typically returns 60% to 80% of each monthly release to new escrow contracts. That leaves a net 200 million to 400 million XRP available for circulation.

The unlock adds supply at a weak moment. At $1.33, 200 million to 400 million XRP is worth about $266 million to $532 million. With spot ETFs drawing just $10.25 million in October, fund demand would absorb only a small fraction of that supply. Ripple uses the released XRP for operations, sales and liquidity, and the market tends to watch these releases closely.

The escrow pattern is predictable, which reduces surprise. Traders know the unlock is coming and can position for it. In weak markets, though, the extra supply tends to weigh on price in the days around the release. In strong markets, it is absorbed easily.

The regulatory backdrop limits Ripple’s flexibility. The CLARITY Act failed a Senate procedural vote on September 15, and XRP slid on the failure. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the defeat stung but that Ripple has clarity through the July 2023 federal court ruling that XRP itself is not a security. A passed CLARITY Act might have let Ripple keep more of each escrow release in circulation for its stablecoin RLUSD and foreign exchange liquidity, according to an August SEC filing for a Cryptex ETF.

Institutional products continue to expand. Germany’s Sparkassen savings banks began offering crypto, including XRP, to retail customers on October 20. Evernorth, which holds 473 million XRP, about 0.75% of circulating supply, trades on Nasdaq. Ripple Prime has opened perpetual swaps on more than 100 assets, using RLUSD as collateral rather than XRP. These developments widen access to XRP over time, but none has produced a surge in demand this month.

For XRPI and XRPR, the escrow release is a headwind. A drop in XRP from $1.33 to $1.24 around the unlock would take XRPI to about $6.62 and XRPR to about $10.15.

Tracking Compared: XRPR Holds, XRPI Drifts

The two funds track XRP differently over time, and the data show it.

XRPR’s ratio to XRP has held steady. On September 23, its net asset value of $12.28 against XRP at $1.49 produced a ratio of about 8.24. On Monday, its price of $10.63 against XRP at about $1.29 produced the same ratio of about 8.24. Over four weeks, XRPR tracked spot XRP almost exactly, losing only its small daily fee accrual.

XRPI’s ratio has slipped. On September 23, its net asset value of $8.08 against XRP at $1.49 produced a ratio of about 5.42. On Tuesday, its price of $7.10 against XRP at $1.33 produced a ratio of about 5.34. That is a decline of about 1.5% in four weeks. The figure is a rough measure that includes fees, roll costs and timing differences between the fund’s price and XRP’s spot price, but it points in the direction the structure predicts.

The longer record shows the same pattern. In August, XRPI traded at $5.87 with XRP near $0.9972, a ratio of about 5.89. From August to October, XRPI’s ratio to XRP fell from about 5.89 to about 5.34, a decline of roughly 9%. Part of that gap reflects timing, but most of it reflects the cost of holding futures rather than tokens.

The reasons are structural. XRPI pays a 1.68% annual fee and absorbs roll costs each month when it replaces expiring futures. XRPR pays 0.75% and holds the asset directly or through an ETP that holds it directly. Over short periods, both track XRP closely. Over months, the futures fund falls behind.

The tracking gap matters for holding period. A trader who buys XRPI for a few days to express a view on XRP will see returns close to XRP’s. An investor who holds XRPI for a year could see returns several percentage points below XRP’s even if the token ends flat. XRPR’s tracking is closer, but its 0.75% fee still costs more than the cheapest spot funds.

Fee Comparison: XRPI and XRPR Against Cheaper Spot Funds

Investors choosing an XRP fund face a wide fee range.

The cheapest spot funds charge well under 0.5%. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ charges 0.19%. The Bitwise XRP ETF charges 0.34%. Several issuers have run temporary fee waivers in 2026 to attract assets. Those funds hold XRP directly in institutional custody, with no futures roll and no ETP layer.

XRPR sits at the top of the spot range. Its 0.75% fee is the highest among the six spot XRP ETFs. Investors pay roughly four times what XRPZ charges for similar spot exposure, plus the embedded fees of the European ETP in XRPR’s portfolio. XRPR’s historic role as the first spot XRP ETF does not lower its cost.

XRPI sits above all spot funds. Its 1.68% total expense ratio exceeds every spot fund by a wide margin. It also falls in the “strategy” category alongside other non-spot XRP funds. The Amplify XRP 3% Monthly Option Income ETF (XRPM) charges 0.75% and writes call options for income. The leveraged funds cost more: ProShares Ultra XRP (UXRP) charges 2.43%, Teucrium’s 2x Long Daily XRP (XXRP) 2.77%, and Volatility Shares’ 2x XRP ETF (XRPT) 3.13%. XRPI should not be confused with XRPT, which is the leveraged product.

The cost difference compounds. On a $10,000 position held for three years, assuming XRP ends flat, XRPZ costs about $57 in fees, Bitwise’s fund about $102, XRPR about $225, and XRPI about $504 before roll costs. XRPI’s roll costs could add several hundred dollars more.

Fees shape flows. The three largest spot funds, which hold about 82% of assets, are among the cheaper products. New money has gone to low-fee funds. XRPR’s assets have fallen from more than $100 million to $49 million, while XRPI’s have swung with the market. Higher-cost funds tend to lose share to cheaper competitors over time.

For investors who already hold XRPI or XRPR, switching has tax implications that depend on their gains or losses. For new money, the fee comparison points to the cheaper spot funds for any holding longer than a few weeks.

Technical Map: $1.25 Support, $1.40 Resistance

The chart frames the outlook for both funds.

XRP’s support levels sit close. The daily pivot sits near $1.30. Tuesday’s low of $1.29 marks the first support. The $1.25 level, where on-chain transfer volume spiked and buyers stepped in, is the key floor. Below that, $1.24 marks the bearish target for October, and a break of $1.25 would open a path toward $1.00.

Resistance sits above. The $1.3038 level is the first hurdle, followed by $1.34, Tuesday’s high. The weekly 200-period exponential moving average near $1.38 is a major barrier. The $1.40 level, where XRP traded on October 10, sits 5.3% above the current price. A sustained close above $1.56 would open a path toward $2.

The momentum is weak. The MACD histogram has stayed negative through the October decline. XRP has made lower highs and lower lows since late September. Tuesday’s bounce from $1.29 to $1.33 is the first sign of buying, but it has not broken the downtrend.

The fund levels follow XRP. At XRP $1.25, XRPI would trade near $6.67 and XRPR near $10.30. At XRP $1.40, XRPI would trade near $7.47 and XRPR near $11.54. At XRP $1.56, XRPI would trade near $8.33 and XRPR near $12.86. XRPI’s 52-week low of $5.42 corresponds to XRP near $1.00.

The funds’ own charts show their ranges. XRPI’s Tuesday range of $6.96 to $7.21 matches XRP’s range of $1.29 to $1.34. XRPR’s spread to net asset value has stayed tight, near 0.25%, though its median bid-ask spread of 0.97% means traders should use limit orders.

Three Scenarios for XRP, XRPI and XRPR Into November

The next two weeks will be decided by fund flows, the November 1 escrow release and the Fed decision on October 28.

The bearish case, a 45% probability, is a drift lower. Spot ETF flows stay flat or negative, the escrow release adds 200 million to 400 million XRP of supply, and exchange deposits remain elevated. XRP falls to $1.24 to $1.25, a decline of 6.0% to 6.8%. XRPI falls to about $6.62 to $6.67, and XRPR to about $10.15 to $10.30. A break below $1.25 would extend the decline toward $1.10 to $1.15.

The base case, a 35% probability, is a range. XRP trades between $1.25 and $1.40 as the escrow release is absorbed and the Fed holds rates on October 28. Fund flows stay small. XRPI trades between $6.67 and $7.47, and XRPR between $10.30 and $11.54. XRPI loses a small amount to roll costs and fees over the period.

The bullish case, a 20% probability, is a recovery. Spot ETF inflows return above $10 million a week, Bitcoin breaks its October high of $87,229, and the escrow release passes without heavy selling. XRP breaks $1.40 and tests $1.50 to $1.56, a gain of 12.8% to 17.3%. XRPI rises to $8.01 to $8.33, and XRPR to $12.37 to $12.86.

The probabilities reflect the flow data. A 92% drop in monthly ETF inflows, rising exchange deposits and a scheduled supply release all point lower. Tuesday’s bounce and the broader crypto rebound offer some support.

The confirmation signals are clear. A daily close below $1.25 confirms the bearish case. A daily close above $1.40 shifts the outlook to neutral. A return to weekly spot ETF inflows above $10 million would signal that institutional demand has resumed.

XRP ETF Verdict: Underweight XRPI and XRPR, Target XRP $1.24

The verdict on XRPI and XRPR is Underweight, with a near-term XRP target of $1.24, 6.8% below the current $1.33. XRPI trades at $7.10, up 1.72% on Tuesday, and XRPR last at $10.63, implying about $10.85 to $10.95 with Tuesday’s XRP gain. Both sit more than 50% below their 52-week highs, tracking XRP’s 63.7% fall from its all-time high.

The demand picture has weakened sharply. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in $10.25 million in October through October 16, down 92% from September’s $121.4 million. They posted their first weekly outflow since July 7, ending a 13-week streak, and recorded zero net flow on Monday. Net assets fell to about $1.47 billion from a $1.77 billion peak, and the average holder sits about 11% under water at a $1.478 cost basis. Exchange reserves reached 11.81 billion XRP, and 1 billion XRP leaves escrow on November 1.

The fund structures add their own drag. XRPI holds CME futures, charges 1.68% a year and absorbs monthly roll costs, which have pulled its ratio to XRP lower by roughly 9% since August on a rough measure. XRPR tracks spot XRP closely through its direct holdings and European ETP but charges 0.75%, the highest fee among spot funds, and holds just $49 million. Franklin’s XRPZ at 0.19% and Bitwise’s XRP fund at 0.34% offer the same spot exposure at a fraction of the cost.

The trade is to sell rallies in XRPI toward $7.40 to $7.47 and in XRPR toward $11.40 to $11.54, matching XRP at $1.38 to $1.40, with a stop on an XRP daily close above $1.40. The targets are XRPI at $6.62 and XRPR at $10.15, matching XRP at $1.24. From Tuesday’s prices, that sets upside risk to the stop at about 5.2% against downside to the target of about 6.8%. Investors who want to hold XRP for the long term should consider the lower-cost spot funds rather than either XRPI or XRPR.

XRPI and XRPR both did what they were built to do in Tuesday’s session, tracking XRP’s bounce from $1.29 to $1.33. The problem is the market they track: a token with stalled fund demand, rising exchange supply and a billion-token unlock arriving in 11 days.

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