XRP Defends $1.05 as Binance Outflows Hit 418.5M Tokens and Large Wallets Grow — Targets $1.24

XRP traded at $1.07 at 12:33 p.m. ET on Wednesday, up 2.03% over 24 hours. Early in the European session it fell as low as $1.05, down 3.54% on the day, its first trade at that level since August. The daily range runs from $1.0486 to $1.0631 on the main index, and the token set a new 60-session low earlier in the week. XRP’s market value is $66.5 billion, based on 63.52 billion tokens in circulation, with $2.19 billion traded in 24 hours on one major exchange.

The decline has been long and steep. XRP’s record high was $3.65 on July 17, 2025. At $1.07 it is 70.7% below that peak. It started 2026 near $1.90, so it is down 43.7% this year. A year ago it traded at $2.44, putting it 56.1% lower year over year. Over the past month it has lost 24.8%. On November 4 it traded at $1.27 and on November 9 at $1.16. The drop accelerated after U.S. inflation data on Tuesday.

The 2026 low is close. XRP fell to $0.98 on August 14, its lowest since November 2024, before rallying to $1.70 by August 22. It has given back that entire rally. At $1.07, it is only 9.2% above the August low. The $1 level is the market’s key line. A break would bring the August low back into focus.

XRP is caught between a stronger network and a weaker token. Ripple’s business has grown this year, through its RLUSD stablecoin, a new federally chartered trust bank and a $1 billion acquisition of treasury software provider GTreasury. That growth has not lifted the token. Most of Ripple’s major deals in 2026 settle in RLUSD rather than XRP, so the company’s success does not translate into demand for XRP. Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows for four straight days last week. Until demand for XRP itself returns, rallies will be limited.

XRP is weaker than Bitcoin. Bitcoin trades at $73,905, 41.4% below its record. XRP is 70.7% below its own. Ether trades at $2,073.70, 58.1% below its peak. Among the large tokens, XRP has had the deepest drawdown. Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value has risen to 60.3%, as investors move money into the largest, most liquid coin. XRP’s 2.03% bounce today slightly outpaced Bitcoin’s 1.06% gain, which typically happens when an oversold token squeezes short sellers.

U.S. CPI +0.4% and a Fully Priced Fed Hike: Why XRP Is Under Pressure

The macro backdrop is hostile for all crypto assets. U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% for the month against a 0.3% forecast, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%, and the 2-year jumped 17 basis points, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. XRP fell to $1.05 in the session after that data.

The Fed is now expected to hike in December with certainty. Futures price a December hike at 100%: 88.2% for 25 basis points and 11.8% for 50. The Fed’s target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after the September hike, the first since July 2023. Traders expect three more hikes in the cycle. Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point move should be considered if core CPI came in near 0.3%, and it did.

XRP is especially sensitive to rates. It has no yield and depends on speculative demand and expectations about future adoption. When safe Treasuries pay 5% and cash pays more than 4%, holding a token that has lost 24.8% in a month becomes harder to justify. Rate hikes also tighten financial conditions, reducing the spare cash that flows into smaller crypto assets. The Dollar Index rose to 102.86 today, its highest since October 14.

The U.S. stock market rallied today on AI chip stocks, with the Nasdaq up 1.77%. XRP did not join that rally in a meaningful way. Crypto assets have moved with tech stocks for much of 2026, but XRP has lagged even in risk-on sessions. XRP’s problems go beyond macro conditions to the gap between Ripple’s growth and the token’s demand.

The calendar keeps the pressure on. U.S. producer prices come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed decides December 9, and November CPI comes out December 10. Bond markets reopen Thursday after Veterans Day. If the 10-year yield breaks above 5.015%, XRP could test $1. If it falls below 4.90%, XRP has room to rally toward $1.24. Until the Fed signals that its hiking cycle is close to ending, crypto rallies will stay limited.

XRP ETFs: Four Days of Zero Flows and October Inflows Down 85%

Spot XRP ETFs have stopped drawing new money. Canary’s XRP ETF (NASDAQ:XRPC) lost $529,500 on November 2, the only flow among U.S. XRP funds that week. Every fund then recorded zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. Net assets across the funds fell to $1.34 billion from $1.425 billion, equal to 1.82% of XRP’s market value.

The slowdown has been building. XRP ETFs took in $121.4 million in September, after 12 straight weeks of inflows. October inflows fell to $18.8 million, down 84.5%. November has begun with a small outflow and four flat days. XRP funds have gone from a steady source of buying to a neutral factor in less than two months.

The funds started strongly. Spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and took in more than $666 million in their first month. Canary’s XRPC set the record for the largest single-day inflow, $243.05 million on November 14, 2025. Franklin Templeton’s and Grayscale’s funds took in $62.6 million and $67.4 million on their first days. The funds recorded no outflows until January 2026, when $40.8 million left in a single day.

The flat flows matter because ETF buying takes XRP off the market. When an ETF takes in money, it must buy XRP to back the new shares. That demand helped support the price during XRP’s first months as an ETF asset. Without inflows, that support disappears, leaving XRP exposed to selling from other holders. Ripple’s monthly escrow releases add supply that ETF demand used to absorb.

The level to watch is a return to daily inflows above $10 million. Even small steady inflows would show that institutions are buying near $1. A run of outflows would show the opposite, and could push XRP below the August low of $0.98. ETF flows are the clearest signal of institutional demand for XRP, and right now they point to indifference rather than active selling.

Spot Selling Hits $57.74 Million, the Highest Since June

Selling on spot exchanges has picked up. Net spot outflows on November 11 reached $57.74 million, the highest since June 5. That measures more XRP being sold than bought on centralized exchanges. Spot selling is the most direct pressure on the price, because it reflects holders exiting rather than traders shifting leveraged positions.

A former Ripple executive added to the selling sentiment. David Schwartz, Ripple’s former chief technology officer and one of the original designers of the XRP Ledger, said he had sold most of his crypto holdings, including XRP, to reduce risk. Reports put his sales near 23 million XRP. Schwartz is a well-known figure in the XRP community. His decision to sell, even for personal risk reasons, weighed on sentiment as the price slid.

Supply is leaving exchanges at the same time. On November 4, 418.5 million XRP were withdrawn from Binance, the exchange’s largest one-day outflow in nine months. That was larger than the 315 million XRP withdrawn on October 29, the day of the exchange’s $6.3 billion hack. Clients pulled $4.7 billion from the exchange after the hack. Withdrawals pushed a measure of XRP scarcity on exchanges to a four-year high.

The two trends point in different directions. Heavy withdrawals usually signal that holders are moving tokens into personal storage for the long term, which reduces sellable supply. Part of those withdrawals may reflect concerns about Binance’s security after the hack rather than accumulation. The number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP has risen to its highest count of 2026, which suggests large holders are buying at these prices.

For the forecast, the selling pressure is real but may be nearing its end. Spot selling at a five-month high, along with a high-profile insider sale, points to capitulation. Supply leaving exchanges and growth in large wallets point to accumulation. A drop in spot selling over the next few days, combined with continued exchange withdrawals, would signal that the selling has run its course.

Leverage: Funding Rates Elevated, Open Interest Falling

The derivatives market sends mixed signals. Funding rates on Binance, where traders betting on a rise pay those betting on a fall, have been elevated. That means traders are still leaning long and paying to keep their positions. In the past, unusually high funding rates for XRP have often appeared near local price peaks, as crowded long positions unwind.

Open interest, the value of outstanding futures positions, has been falling. Fewer leveraged positions mean less risk of forced selling in a drop and less fuel for a short squeeze in a rally. Falling open interest during a price decline usually signals that leveraged traders are giving up. That can mark the end of a selloff, because fewer positions remain to be forcibly closed.

The combination points to a market clearing out. Elevated funding shows that retail traders still expect a bounce. Falling open interest shows that the most leveraged positions have been closed. XRP’s 2.03% bounce today, from $1.05 to $1.07, came as the market shifted toward balance. Short sellers who piled in below $1.10 were pushed to close.

Leverage risk sits near round numbers. Long positions are concentrated just above $1, where traders who bought the dip have stop orders. A break of $1 would trigger those stops and could push XRP to $0.98 or lower quickly. Short positions cluster above $1.10, where traders who sold this week’s drop have stops. A move above $1.10 would force those shorts to buy back.

For the forecast, leverage is less of a danger than earlier in the decline. Falling open interest reduces the risk of a cascade of forced selling. Elevated funding remains a warning, since crowded longs can unwind on bad news. The next move is likely to be sharp in whichever direction breaks first: below $1 or above $1.10.

Escrow Release: 1 Billion XRP Unlocked on November 1

Ripple’s monthly escrow release added supply this month. On November 1, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP in two transactions of 500 million XRP each. At the time, each batch was worth $626.43 million, implying a price of $1.25. Ripple originally locked 55 billion XRP in escrow contracts in 2017, set to release 1 billion tokens on the first of each month.

Not all released XRP reaches the market. Ripple has typically returned about 700 million XRP of each monthly release to new escrow contracts, keeping the rest for operations, liquidity and ecosystem activity. That means about 300 million XRP a month enters circulation from escrow. At $1.07, that is worth $321 million a month, larger than total XRP ETF inflows in October.

Supply has grown steadily. In June, 61.85 billion XRP were in circulation, with 38.15 billion remaining in escrow. Circulating supply has since risen to 63.52 billion, an increase of 1.67 billion XRP in five months. Each new token dilutes existing holders unless demand grows to match it. In 2026, demand has not kept pace, which helps explain the price decline even as Ripple’s business has grown.

The release schedule is predictable, so markets usually price it in. Escrow releases rarely trigger sudden moves, because traders know the timing and amount in advance. The issue is the steady addition to supply over time, without ETF inflows or new demand to absorb it. Ripple’s sales of XRP have historically funded its operations, though the company now aims to reach a $1 billion annual operating revenue run rate by the end of 2026, excluding XRP sales.

For the forecast, escrow supply sets a baseline of selling pressure. Unless ETF inflows or new uses for XRP pick up, the monthly release keeps adding supply. The December 1 release is the next scheduled event. A return to strong ETF inflows would offset the release. Continued flat flows would leave the release as a steady weight on the price.

Ripple’s Growth Is Not Lifting XRP: RLUSD, a Trust Bank and GTreasury

Ripple’s business has expanded sharply in 2026, but much of that growth bypasses XRP. RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, reached a record supply. RLUSD on the XRP Ledger rose from 18.4% of total issuance at the start of 2026 to 58.9% recently, with $963 million on the XRP Ledger and $1.1 billion on Ethereum. On November 2, Ripple minted 110.57 million RLUSD in one of the largest single mints on the network.

Ripple gained regulatory standing. On October 28, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gave final approval to Ripple National Trust Bank, a federal charter that lets the bank manage RLUSD reserves and custody. RLUSD received a top-tier short- and long-term credit rating the same day. A global bank launched custody services for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger. Ripple partnered with C2FO to settle supplier invoices in seconds using RLUSD.

Ripple has also bought its way into new businesses. Early in 2026 it acquired corporate treasury software provider GTreasury for $1 billion. Its business now spans brokerage, payments, custody, corporate treasury, tokenization and RLUSD. Payment company Convera, which handles $190 billion a year in cross-border volume, integrated RLUSD for its settlements.

That growth has not reached the token. Ripple closed ten major deals in 2026, and none used XRP as the settlement asset. Most run through RLUSD. A stablecoin pegged to the dollar does not create demand for XRP the way XRP-based settlements would. XRP holders benefit from network activity on the XRP Ledger, where transaction fees are paid in XRP, but those fees are small. XRP Ledger daily transactions rose 21% to 2.4 million by September, while the token fell.

For the forecast, Ripple’s success is a long-term positive with little short-term effect. A stronger XRP Ledger, more stablecoin activity and regulatory approval make the ecosystem more durable. Unless Ripple starts using XRP directly in its deals, those gains will not create enough token demand to offset escrow supply and weak ETF flows. The gap between Ripple’s growth and XRP’s price is likely to persist.

Regulation: Ripple Gains a Charter as the CLARITY Act Stalls

XRP’s legal status is clearer than it was a few years ago, but crypto legislation has stalled. On September 15, the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on crypto market structure, falling short of the 60 votes needed. Prediction markets give the bill a 3% chance of becoming law in 2026. The midterm elections on November 3 changed control of Congress and made passage even less likely in the near term.

The CLARITY Act would have given the Commodity Futures Trading Commission primary oversight of assets like XRP. That would have reduced uncertainty about how XRP is regulated. Without the law, XRP’s status relies on court rulings and agency guidance, which can change. The stalled bill removes a potential catalyst that some investors expected to lift XRP in 2026.

Ripple has made gains on its own. Final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gives the company a federal charter. That lets it hold RLUSD reserves and custody directly, without relying on outside banks. A credit rating for RLUSD puts the stablecoin on the same footing as established competitors. These steps strengthen Ripple’s position in regulated finance.

Enforcement against other parts of the industry continues. The U.S. Treasury took action against crypto exchange MEXC over $16 billion in alleged illicit flows. A federal market regulator is reportedly preparing charges against prediction-market operator Kalshi. These actions show that regulators remain active, which keeps some investors cautious about crypto exposure.

For the forecast, regulation is a neutral factor in the near term. Ripple’s charter and RLUSD’s rating are positive but already known. The stalled CLARITY Act removes an expected catalyst. No major regulatory decision affecting XRP is scheduled before year-end. Regulation will matter again if Congress revives market structure legislation in 2027, but that is not likely to affect XRP’s price in the coming weeks.

Cycle Context: From $3.65 to $0.98 and Back to $1.07

XRP’s move from its 2025 record to its 2026 low has been severe. The token peaked at $3.65 on July 17, 2025, amid optimism about ETFs and a friendlier U.S. regulatory approach. It started 2026 near $1.90, already 48% below the record. By July 2026 it had fallen to $1.06. On August 14 it set a yearly low of $0.98, its lowest since November 2024, and briefly traded below $1 for the first time in that cycle.

The August rebound shows what can happen near $1. XRP rallied from $0.98 to $1.70 by August 22, a 73% move in eight days. That rally came as XRP ETFs took in money and the broader crypto market rebounded. It then drifted back to $1.36 and eventually to $1.07 now. The August low and the rally that followed make $1 an important support level.

The cycle resembles past crypto bear markets. Previous downturns took tokens like XRP down more than 70% from their highs before a bottom formed. XRP’s 70.7% drawdown is in line with that history. Bitcoin’s drawdown has been smaller at 41.4%, which suggests smaller tokens are bearing more of this bear market. That pattern is typical when rates are rising and investors favor the largest, most liquid assets.

Network activity has grown during the decline. XRP Ledger daily transactions rose 21% to 2.4 million by September. Stablecoin and tokenization activity on the ledger has expanded. The number of wallets holding 1 million or more XRP has reached its highest count of 2026. Strong usage alongside a falling price is a pattern seen in past cycles before recoveries, though it does not guarantee one.

For the forecast, the cycle points to a possible bottom zone between $0.98 and $1.10. XRP has tested that zone twice in 2026, in July and August, and is testing it again now. A third successful defense would strengthen the case for a floor. A break below $0.98 would mean the cycle has further to fall, with $0.80 and $0.588 as the next possible levels.

echnical Map: $1.00 Support, $1.24 Resistance, $1.36 Upside Target

XRP’s chart is in a downtrend. The token trades below its 20-day moving average of $1.24 and well below its 200-week exponential moving average of $1.36. Its 30-day range has moved steadily lower, from $1.41 a month ago to $1.05 at today’s low. The token set a new 60-session low this week before bouncing.

Support comes in layers. The first is $1.05, today’s low and its first trade at that level since August. The second is $1.00, the round number where long positions are concentrated. The third is $0.98, the August 14 yearly low. A daily close below $0.98 would set a new 2026 low and open $0.85, then $0.80. The deepest projected level is $0.588, where some forecasts see XRP falling if selling persists.

Resistance also comes in layers. The first is $1.10, where short positions from this week’s drop sit. The second is $1.16, the November 9 level. The third is the 20-day moving average at $1.24, 15.9% above the current price. A close above $1.24 would signal the short-term downtrend is ending. The 200-week exponential moving average at $1.36 is the level that would signal a broader recovery, 27.1% above $1.07.

The near-term upside target is $1.24. Reaching it requires a close above $1.10, a pickup in ETF inflows and easing U.S. yields. The next target is $1.36, the 200-week average. A return to $1.70, the August 22 high, would require a broad crypto recovery and renewed ETF demand.

Volatility is high. XRP moved from $1.27 on November 4 to $1.05 today, a 17.3% drop in a week. Daily swings of 3% to 6% are common. A bounce from $1.05 to $1.07 in hours shows how quickly prices can move near support. Traders need wide stops and should watch the $1.00 and $1.10 levels for the next breakout.

XRP Forecast Verdict: Neutral-to-Bearish Near Term, $1.24 Upside Target Once $1.10 Breaks

The bearish case is stronger in the near term. A December Fed hike is priced at 100%, with an 11.8% chance of 50 basis points. XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows for four straight days, and October inflows fell 84.5% to $18.8 million. Spot selling reached $57.74 million, the highest since June. Ripple’s former CTO sold most of his XRP. The November 1 escrow release added supply. Ripple’s major deals use RLUSD rather than XRP. XRP is 70.7% below its record and down 43.7% this year.

The bullish case is building. XRP bounced from $1.05 and is close to the $0.98 August low, which held and led to a 73% rally. 418.5 million XRP left Binance on November 4, pushing exchange scarcity to a four-year high. Wallets holding 1 million or more XRP reached their highest count of 2026. Open interest is falling, reducing the risk of forced selling. Ripple gained a federal trust bank charter and its stablecoin received a credit rating. XRP Ledger transactions are up 21%.

The near-term range is $1.00 to $1.10. Holding $1.00 keeps the bounce alive. A close above $1.10 targets $1.16 and then $1.24. A close below $1.00 targets $0.98, and a break below $0.98 opens $0.85 and $0.80.

The catalysts are close together. Bond markets reopen Thursday, and the 10-year yield will set the tone for risk assets. U.S. producer prices come out Friday. XRP ETF flow data, Bitcoin’s direction and any news from Ripple will matter. Nvidia reports on November 17, and the Fed decides December 9. Ripple’s next escrow release is December 1.

The forecast is neutral to bearish in the near term, with $1.00 as the key support level. The upside target is $1.24, 15.9% above $1.07, once XRP closes above $1.10 and ETF flows turn positive. A break below $0.98 would shift the risk toward $0.85 and $0.80. The longer-term recovery target is $1.36, the 200-week average, which depends on renewed ETF demand and an end to the Fed’s hiking cycle.

echnical Map: $1.00 Support, $1.24 Resistance, $1.36 Upside Target

XRP’s chart is in a downtrend. The token trades below its 20-day moving average of $1.24 and well below its 200-week exponential moving average of $1.36. Its 30-day range has moved steadily lower, from $1.41 a month ago to $1.05 at today’s low. The token set a new 60-session low this week before bouncing.

Support comes in layers. The first is $1.05, today’s low and its first trade at that level since August. The second is $1.00, the round number where long positions are concentrated. The third is $0.98, the August 14 yearly low. A daily close below $0.98 would set a new 2026 low and open $0.85, then $0.80. The deepest projected level is $0.588, where some forecasts see XRP falling if selling persists.

Resistance also comes in layers. The first is $1.10, where short positions from this week’s drop sit. The second is $1.16, the November 9 level. The third is the 20-day moving average at $1.24, 15.9% above the current price. A close above $1.24 would signal the short-term downtrend is ending. The 200-week exponential moving average at $1.36 is the level that would signal a broader recovery, 27.1% above $1.07.

The near-term upside target is $1.24. Reaching it requires a close above $1.10, a pickup in ETF inflows and easing U.S. yields. The next target is $1.36, the 200-week average. A return to $1.70, the August 22 high, would require a broad crypto recovery and renewed ETF demand.

Volatility is high. XRP moved from $1.27 on November 4 to $1.05 today, a 17.3% drop in a week. Daily swings of 3% to 6% are common. A bounce from $1.05 to $1.07 in hours shows how quickly prices can move near support. Traders need wide stops and should watch the $1.00 and $1.10 levels for the next breakout.

XRP Forecast Verdict: Neutral-to-Bearish Near Term, $1.24 Upside Target Once $1.10 Breaks

The bearish case is stronger in the near term. A December Fed hike is priced at 100%, with an 11.8% chance of 50 basis points. XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows for four straight days, and October inflows fell 84.5% to $18.8 million. Spot selling reached $57.74 million, the highest since June. Ripple’s former CTO sold most of his XRP. The November 1 escrow release added supply. Ripple’s major deals use RLUSD rather than XRP. XRP is 70.7% below its record and down 43.7% this year.

The bullish case is building. XRP bounced from $1.05 and is close to the $0.98 August low, which held and led to a 73% rally. 418.5 million XRP left Binance on November 4, pushing exchange scarcity to a four-year high. Wallets holding 1 million or more XRP reached their highest count of 2026. Open interest is falling, reducing the risk of forced selling. Ripple gained a federal trust bank charter and its stablecoin received a credit rating. XRP Ledger transactions are up 21%.

The near-term range is $1.00 to $1.10. Holding $1.00 keeps the bounce alive. A close above $1.10 targets $1.16 and then $1.24. A close below $1.00 targets $0.98, and a break below $0.98 opens $0.85 and $0.80.

The catalysts are close together. Bond markets reopen Thursday, and the 10-year yield will set the tone for risk assets. U.S. producer prices come out Friday. XRP ETF flow data, Bitcoin’s direction and any news from Ripple will matter. Nvidia reports on November 17, and the Fed decides December 9. Ripple’s next escrow release is December 1.

The forecast is neutral to bearish in the near term, with $1.00 as the key support level. The upside target is $1.24, 15.9% above $1.07, once XRP closes above $1.10 and ETF flows turn positive. A break below $0.98 would shift the risk toward $0.85 and $0.80. The longer-term recovery target is $1.36, the 200-week average, which depends on renewed ETF demand and an end to the Fed’s hiking cycle.

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