XRP Defends $1.00 as ETF Inflows Collapse 96% Against a 300M Monthly Escrow Release

XRP traded at $1.012 on Thursday, August 13, holding barely above the psychological $1.00 level after defending it twice this week on progressively thinner conviction. Quotes ranged between $1.0059 and $1.02 through the session, with market capitalization near $60 billion.

The moving average structure is the cleanest bearish configuration available on any major crypto chart. The 7-day simple average sits at $1.03, the 20-day at $1.06, the 50-day at $1.08 and the 200-day at $1.31. Price sits beneath all four, stacked in ascending order — a textbook downtrend signature where every rally meets resistance from a shorter-duration average before it can reach the next one.

Spot volume has been thin and the daily range has been compressing, which tells you buyers are not showing conviction rather than that sellers have exhausted. Over the last 30 days XRP has posted 14 green days out of 30 with 2.61% price volatility, and the Fear and Greed Index reads 29 — fear territory.

The recent path has been a steady grind lower. XRP entered August at $1.06 and found an intraday floor at $1.0480 on August 1 before consolidating at $1.0818, posting a positive month-to-date return at that point. By August 7 it traded at $1.03, down 1.53% in 24 hours and 3.85% over seven days. It dipped to $1.01 and recovered toward $1.04 mid-week before returning to the current level.

XRP has been the weakest performer among major cryptocurrencies this week. Bitcoin trades at $63,504 having opened lower every session, and Ethereum at $1,878 with a market cap near $228 billion. Both are pinned; XRP is bleeding.

Prediction market positioning reflects it. Traders assign a 68% probability that XRP prints $1 or below at some point during August, with roughly 13% pointing toward $1.20 or higher.

The token is down more than 40% since the start of 2026 and roughly half its January level.

The 72% Drawdown: $3.657 in July 2025 to $1.01 Today

XRP set its all-time high of $3.65703 on July 18, 2025. At $1.012 the drawdown stands at approximately 72%, deeper than Bitcoin's roughly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak and deeper than Ethereum's 62% fall from August 2025.

The path down is worth reconstructing because each leg was driven by a distinct failure.

In August 2025 the Securities and Exchange Commission agreed to drop its appeals, ending a multi-year legal battle with Ripple. XRP surged more than 23% to $3.38 within days. That was the resolution the entire holder base had waited years for, and it marked the top rather than the beginning.

By the end of December 2025 the token had retreated to $1.87. January 2026 produced a brief rally to $2.41 before the decline resumed, and by early February the price had fallen to $1.11 — a 54% drawdown in five weeks. From mid-February to mid-May the market consolidated in a narrow $1.27 to $1.67 band, which at the time looked like base building.

At the end of May the decline resumed alongside the broader crypto downtrend, taking XRP to $1.05. July closed at $1.06 against a $1.04 start, a 2% gain that marked the seventh consecutive positive July but the weakest of the streak against a roughly 10% average. Since the end of July the price has moved within a descending channel.

The comparison that damages the thesis most is not the drawdown depth but the catalyst count. XRP received the single largest possible regulatory clearance in August 2025, saw seven spot ETFs launch in the United States, watched Ripple's corporate valuation reach $50 billion following a $750 million buyback in March 2026, and secured a licensing and partnership pipeline across multiple jurisdictions. The token fell 72% through all of it.

Consensus forecasts for 2026 now cluster between $1.05 and $1.72, with algorithm-driven models projecting $1.70 to $2.00 and one revised bank projection placing XRP near $2.80 under moderate conditions. The earlier cluster of $2.50 to $5.00 targets has been abandoned.

August Is XRP's Worst Month: +0.43% Average and Four Straight Losses

Seasonality is rarely worth citing. In XRP's case the record is specific enough to matter for positioning.

August is the flattest month in XRP's thirteen-year history, averaging a return of just 0.43%. More significantly, the token has closed August lower for four consecutive years, which makes this the longest active losing streak of any month in its history.

That contrasts sharply with July, which has closed green every year since 2020 with an average gain near 10%. The 2026 July delivered 2% — positive, streak intact, but the weakest performance of the run and a signal that even the reliably strong month is losing force.

The historical pattern is that XRP goes nowhere in August and occasionally explodes in the fourth quarter. Every meaningful rally this cycle has depended on external triggers, and August 2026 conspicuously lacks them.

The only XRP-specific event on the August calendar was the escrow release on the first of the month, and those have stopped moving price. That leaves the macro calendar carrying the entire month, with two dates that could matter: the July inflation report on August 12, and Jackson Hole running August 27 to 29.

Jackson Hole deserves attention that it is not receiving. The Kansas City Fed set this year's theme as "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," which places the month's one macro stage directly on XRP's home turf. A cross-border settlement token receiving central bank attention at the highest-profile monetary policy event of the year is the closest thing to a scheduled catalyst the token has before September.

Whether changed market structure — tighter exchange supply, an altered escrow regime, institutional ETF infrastructure — makes the seasonal record irrelevant is the open question. So far the answer has been no. XRP entered August at $1.06 and trades at $1.012, down 4.5% month to date with two and a half weeks remaining, tracking the four-year losing streak precisely.

Ripple Delivered Its Tightest Escrow Release Ever and It Changed Nothing

On August 1 Ripple executed its monthly escrow operation with a deliberate change in sequencing that produced the tightest net release in recent memory.

The company pre-locked 700 million XRP back into escrow in two tranches of 200 million and 500 million before the scheduled unlock occurred. Only after that did the system release the standard 1 billion XRP in three consecutive portions of 500 million, 300 million and 200 million tokens. Net new supply entering circulation: 300 million.

The sequencing matters because it removed the window during which the full billion sits liquid. Ripple normally re-locks a large share within the first week, but doing it beforehand eliminates the period when order books brace for pressure. It is a supply management signal, and it was read as one.

The price response was minimal. XRP found an intraday floor at $1.0480 and consolidated at $1.0818, a modest positive move that has since been fully reversed.

The routine mechanics explain why. Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow at the start of each month and typically re-escrows 600 to 800 million, putting 200 to 400 million into circulation net. The schedule is public and verifiable directly on the ledger, which means the market has priced it years in advance. Several of this year's unlocks passed with barely a reaction.

What traders should actually watch is the disposition of released tokens rather than the headline number: whether they are re-locked, held for corporate purposes, deployed for institutional liquidity, routed into ecosystem programs, or moved toward exchanges. Only the last adds immediate sell pressure.

Exchange balances offer the constructive counterpoint. Ripple's centralised exchange balance has been holding around three-year lows, indicating fewer tokens available for immediate sale. Combined with a 300 million net release rather than the usual 300 to 400 million, the supply side of August was as favourable as it has been all year.

And the token fell 4.5%. When the best supply configuration in twelve months produces a decline, the problem is demand.

The Arithmetic Problem: 300 Million Net Supply Against 109 Million ETF Absorption

The core structural issue with XRP reduces to a single subtraction, and it is the reason the token has underperformed every major crypto asset this year.

Ripple puts 200 to 400 million XRP into circulation net every month through the escrow mechanism. Every spot XRP ETF in existence has absorbed approximately 109 million XRP per month since launch. At the August net release of 300 million, that is a monthly supply surplus of roughly 191 million tokens — about $193 million of net selling pressure at current prices that must be absorbed by the open market.

Cumulative ETF immobilization currently stands at 977.92 million XRP, which is 0.98% of total supply and 1.56% of circulating supply. Live tracking as of August 12 showed seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs with combined assets under management of approximately $1 billion and 992.5 million tokens locked.

Against that, the escrow mechanism releases roughly 3.6 billion net tokens per year at the current pace. The ETF complex would need to more than triple its absorption rate simply to reach equilibrium.

The bull case for demand is bridge inventory — XRP held as working capital by institutions moving value across currency corridors. The arithmetic there is modest even in the optimistic version. A trillion dollars a year of XRP-mediated payment flow would tie up only about 986 million XRP of working capital, roughly 1.6% of circulating supply. That is a similar magnitude to the entire ETF complex, and it would require payment volumes that do not currently exist.

The threshold to monitor is specific: whether ETF absorption reaches 200 million tokens per month for two consecutive months. Below that, the escrow release continues to exceed institutional demand and the token drifts. Four consecutive weeks above $10 million in net inflows would signal a trend reversal; four consecutive weeks below $5 million would confirm the collapse is structural.

This is the dynamic that distinguishes XRP from Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin's issuance is roughly 450 coins per day against ETF holdings in the hundreds of thousands. Ethereum has a fee burn and 7.58 million tokens in corporate treasuries. XRP has a concentrated holder releasing supply on a published schedule into a market whose institutional absorption has collapsed.

ETF Flows Collapsed From $666 Million to $27 Million

The spot XRP ETF launch was the most anticipated structural catalyst of the year, and its trajectory since has been the single most damaging development for the token.

The funds drew $666 million in their launch month. Monthly net inflows then fell to approximately $132 million in May. July delivered $27.29 million in total, with zero flows recorded on 11 of the month's 22 trading days.

That is a 96% collapse from launch and a 79% decline from May in the space of two months. Half of all trading days in July saw no net creation activity at all across a seven-fund complex.

Combined assets under management sit near $1 billion holding 992.5 million tokens. For scale, Bitcoin spot ETFs hold $76.22 billion and Ethereum's $9.72 billion — meaning the XRP complex is roughly one-tenth the size of Ethereum's and one seventy-sixth of Bitcoin's, in an asset whose market capitalization is roughly a quarter of Ethereum's.

There are marginal green shoots. Daily net inflows into XRP funds recently printed $5.66 million on a session when competing products bled capital, which indicates dip-buyers with a long horizon are still accumulating. A single $5.66 million day against a $60 billion market capitalization does not change the balance.

The link between ETF flows and the regulatory calendar is the crux of the entire thesis. ETF inflows are effectively the only credible mechanism for absorbing the ongoing escrow supply, and institutional allocators have been unwilling to commit while the token's statutory classification rests on interpretive guidance rather than law.

That connection was made explicit in flow behaviour. Inflows ran at $132 million in May while the CLARITY Act was advancing through the Senate Banking Committee. They fell to $27 million in July after the bill stalled without a floor vote.

Published projections of $4 billion to $8 billion in eventual XRP ETF inflows remain outstanding. At the current $27 million monthly run rate, reaching the low end of that range would take twelve years.

The CLARITY Act Slipped to September and Cloture Is Filed

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is the only variable that can change XRP's trajectory in the near term, and it has now slipped twice.

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by a 15–9 vote, with all thirteen Republicans joined by two Democrats. On June 1 it landed on the Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders as Calendar No. 423, making it formally eligible for full floor consideration. It then sat there through June and July without a vote.

The Senate shelved it before the August recess. Majority Leader John Thune had told reporters on August 3 that a floor vote would come before lawmakers left, and on August 8 the chamber filed a cloture motion on the motion to proceed — a procedural step that limits debate and positions the bill for a vote when the Senate returns, but not a vote on passage. Thune attributed the delay to Democratic resistance and indicated the bill would be queued up first thing on the return.

The Senate comes back on September 14 with three weeks of floor time. A cloture filing before recess permits the first procedural vote as early as September 15; filing after the return pushes it to September 16 at the earliest.

For XRP specifically, the bill would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC and classify the token as a commodity under permanent federal law. That would replace the March 2026 joint SEC-CFTC guidance classifying sixteen digital assets — guidance any future administration can rescind without a vote. The difference between interpretive comfort and statutory certainty is precisely what institutional allocators have said they are waiting for.

Prediction market odds on passage reached 43% at one point, up from a low of 32%, before the recess delay. Appropriations fights and the election calendar make floor time scarce in the fall, which is why some observers treated the August window as the practical cutoff.

Passage is the only credible near-term route to the ETF inflows that would fix the supply arithmetic. Failure leaves XRP with a published monthly release schedule, collapsing institutional demand, and no scheduled catalyst before the fourth quarter.

RLUSD Crossed to the XRP Ledger — and Still Does Not Buy XRP

Ripple's most successful product has just achieved a milestone that should matter for the token, and the mechanism by which it would matter remains missing.

For the first time, more of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin now lives on the XRP Ledger than on Ethereum — $810 million, or 51.7%, against $756 million at 48.3%. A month earlier Ethereum led by more than $300 million. That is a genuine migration verified on-chain, and it reverses the pattern that had made RLUSD growth explicitly XRP-neutral.

RLUSD's overall scale is meaningful. Market capitalization sits between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, and the stablecoin processed $18.4 billion in transfer volume during the first quarter of 2026. Ripple itself carries a $50 billion valuation following a $750 million buyback in March.

The problem is that XRP the token has captured very little of that activity, and the migration to the XRP Ledger only partially fixes it.

RLUSD transactions on the XRPL pay fees in XRP, which creates demand. But the fee level is trivial: transaction fees across the entire ledger burn approximately 27 XRP per day. Reserve requirements, the other native demand channel, were cut in December 2024 from 10 XRP to 1 XRP for a base account, and the account base is shrinking anyway.

The metric worth tracking from here is whether RLUSD volume — not just supply — shifts decisively toward the XRP Ledger. Supply migration means tokens sitting on the ledger. Volume migration means transactions clearing on it, which is where fee demand and bridge inventory requirements originate. If volume follows supply, the bridge currency mechanism finally begins generating real XRP demand. If it remains concentrated on Ethereum, the crossover is a balance-sheet reallocation with no token impact.

Alongside RLUSD, partnerships with financial institutions to tokenize real-world assets on the XRPL have shown increasing activity, and Ripple continues accumulating licenses and bank agreements across jurisdictions. The pattern for two years has been consistent: Ripple the company executes, and XRP the token does not respond.

The Value Accrual Problem: 27 XRP Burned a Day

The structural comparison that explains XRP's underperformance against Ethereum is tokenomics, and it is unflattering.

Four channels could carry value from Ripple's business into the token, and all four are small.

Transaction fees burn approximately 27 XRP per day. At $1.01 that is roughly $27 of daily supply destruction against a 300 million token monthly release — a ratio of about one to 370,000.

Reserve requirements were reduced from 10 XRP to 1 XRP per base account in December 2024, cutting the per-account lock by 90% at exactly the moment account growth stalled.

Bridge inventory is the genuine thesis, and even the bull version is modest: $1 trillion of annual XRP-mediated payment flow would immobilize roughly 986 million XRP, about 1.6% of circulating supply.

ETF immobilization is real and currently accounts for 977.92 million XRP — 0.98% of total supply and 1.56% of circulating.

Sum the plausible maximum across all four and the demand sink is a low single-digit percentage of supply, against an escrow mechanism releasing 3.6 billion tokens annually.

Ethereum's fee burn creates deflationary pressure proportional to network usage. XRP has no equivalent. Its fixed supply combined with Ripple's escrow releases creates a dynamic closer to a company selling treasury stock than a protocol with organic tokenomics.

The concentrated holder issue compounds it. Ripple holds billions of XRP in escrow with the ability to sell at any time. The company has reduced programmatic sales in recent quarters, and the pre-locking behaviour on August 1 demonstrates good faith. But the existence of that overhang is a persistent structural feature no other major cryptocurrency carries.

The honest read is that XRP's payment utility thesis and XRP's price thesis are two different arguments. The network settles transactions in seconds at negligible cost, which is exactly why nobody needs to hold the token for long. Speed of settlement is inversely related to inventory requirements, and inventory requirements are the only durable demand.

Derivatives Dominate: $2.38 Billion Open Interest Against $158 Million Spot

The positioning data explains why XRP produces sharp reversals without trends.

Recent readings showed 24-hour futures volume near $1.23 billion and open interest at $2.38 billion, against spot volume of $158.21 million over the same period. That is a derivatives-to-spot ratio of roughly eight to one on volume, meaning the overwhelming majority of price discovery is happening in leveraged markets rather than through actual accumulation.

The Binance long-short ratio has been running at 2.63, indicating substantially more traders positioned for upside than downside. That skew has been persistent through the decline and is the mechanical explanation for the pattern of failed rallies: leveraged longs build into any bounce, get liquidated on the reversal, and the cycle repeats one level lower.

Trend strength readings confirm the absence of direction. The Average Directional Index has been printing between 11 and 12.3, well below the 25 threshold that marks a confirmed trend. The Aroon Oscillator has read minus 100, indicating recent lows dominate the price structure, while BBTrend has registered minus 1.36.

An ADX near 11 with price beneath all four major moving averages describes a market grinding lower without conviction on either side — the worst configuration for anyone trying to trade momentum and the best for range strategies.

Compressed daily ranges alongside thin spot volume mean liquidity has withdrawn. When it returns, the move will be larger than the fundamentals justify in whichever direction the first genuine flow arrives.

Whale behaviour is the metric worth monitoring for a bottom signal. Sustained exchange outflows above 10 million XRP per day would indicate large holders maintain conviction. A slowdown below 5 million per day would suggest even the whales are stepping back. Exchange balances near three-year lows currently favour the constructive reading.

PPI at 0.0% Did Nothing for the Weakest Major Crypto

Thursday's July Producer Price Index printed 0.0% for final demand against a 0.2% consensus, with the annual rate falling to 4.7% from 5.5%. Final demand energy dropped 3.1%, gasoline 5.7%, and crude petroleum 11.9% at the unprocessed stage.

Wednesday's Consumer Price Index eased to 3.4% headline from 3.5% and 2.5% core from 2.6% — the slowest annual core reading since March 2021. September Federal Reserve hold odds jumped to 60% from 40%.

XRP moved less than one cent across both releases.

The offsetting detail explains part of it. Final demand less foods, energy and trade services accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1% in June and holds a 4.7% annual rate, with services less trade, transportation and warehousing up 0.6%. The federal funds target remains 3.50% to 3.75% after five consecutive holds and a 9–3 July vote with three dissents favouring a hike. October hike odds exceed 53%; December sits at 73%.

Lower rates are what send investors back into risk assets. A market pricing a 73% chance of tightening by December is not a market rotating into a token with no yield, no fee burn and a published monthly supply release.

The relative performance within crypto is the sharper signal. Bitcoin held $63,504 through both prints. Ethereum held $1,878 and has drawn $244 million into its ETF complex in a single recent week. XRP fell to $1.012 and has drawn $27 million across an entire month. When identical macro inputs produce stability in two assets and continued decline in a third, the divergence is asset-specific.

Jackson Hole on August 27 to 29 carries the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." That is the only remaining macro event this month that touches XRP's actual use case, and it is a conference rather than a policy decision.

Technical Structure: $1.00 Floor, $1.083 Pivot, $1.31 Two-Hundred-Day

The chart offers precise levels because the market has been testing the same band for six weeks.

Immediate support is the $1.008 to $1.00 zone, an area carrying heavy liquidity from prior trading. XRP has defended it twice this week, with each bounce arriving on thinner conviction than the last. Below it, Fibonacci support sits at $1.0125 — already breached intraday — then $0.9711, with the $0.95 to $0.97 region marking the next structural shelf. Beyond that, $0.90 represents prior consolidation from early in the year and $0.85 down to $0.65 the deeper floor.

Resistance is layered tightly and every level has held. The 7-day average at $1.03 is first. Then $1.048, the August 1 intraday floor that has flipped to resistance. The $1.06 to $1.08 band, where sellers have repeatedly defended and where the 20-day and 50-day averages sit, is the critical zone. Above it, $1.083 is the pivot that must be reclaimed, then $1.10 to $1.12, $1.1343, $1.1563 and $1.1843.

The structural line is $1.18 to $1.22. A sustained break above that band invalidates the bear case, and a reclaim of the 200-day average — cited between $1.31 and $1.38 depending on the calculation — would mark the downtrend as broken. That is roughly 29% above spot.

Longer-term voices emphasise $1.60 as the level required for any genuine structural shift, which is the top of the February-to-May consolidation range.

Price has been compressing toward the apex of a triangle formation. A daily close above $1.15 with strong volume would improve the breakout setup; a close below $1.03 exposed further downside, and that has now occurred.

The sequence a recovery requires is specific: hold $1.00, reclaim $1.03, then $1.048, then $1.083, then a break and retest of $1.10. A four-hour close above $1.10 opens $1.14, then $1.183, then $1.20. That is five separate levels to clear before the token reaches the bottom of its June range.

Scenarios and Targets: $0.97 Downside, $1.10 Base, $1.22 on a Break

The base case, carrying the highest probability, is continued range trade between $0.97 and $1.10 through the September Senate session. This assumes escrow releases stay near 300 million net, ETF flows remain in the $5 million to $30 million monthly band, and Bitcoin holds its $62,500 to $65,400 range. XRP defends $1.00, grinds between the 7-day at $1.03 and the 50-day at $1.08, and finishes August near $1.05. Target: $1.10.

The bullish case requires the CLARITY Act to advance. A cloture vote succeeding on September 15 or 16, followed by floor passage, would classify XRP as a commodity under permanent federal law and remove the classification uncertainty that has kept institutional allocators sidelined. ETF inflows would need to reach 200 million tokens monthly for two consecutive months to flip the supply balance. Under that scenario XRP clears $1.083, then $1.10, then the $1.18 to $1.22 band that invalidates the bear structure, and targets the 200-day average at $1.31 to $1.38. Published moderate-case bank projections sit near $2.80 on a longer horizon. Target: $1.22, with $1.31 on confirmation.

The bearish case begins with a decisive loss of $1.00. That exposes Fibonacci support at $0.9711, then the $0.95 zone, then $0.90 where early-2026 consolidation sits. Below that, the $0.85 to $0.65 band is the next meaningful floor. Triggers: a September Fed hike at roughly 40% probability, another CLARITY Act delay pushing the vote past the fall calendar, ETF flows falling below $5 million for four consecutive weeks, or a larger-than-usual escrow release moving to exchanges. Target: $0.97, with $0.90 as the extension.

Prediction markets currently assign 68% to XRP printing $1 or below during August against roughly 13% for $1.20 or higher — a distribution heavily skewed to the downside.

Consensus 2026 forecasts have compressed to a $1.05 to $1.72 range, with algorithm-driven models at $1.70 to $2.00. Seasonal expectations for August pointed to a $1.00 to $1.18 range finishing near $1.10, and the token is currently tracking the lower half of it.

Verdict: A Supply Schedule Meeting a Demand Collapse With One Legislative Escape

XRP at $1.012 sits 72% below the July 2025 high of $3.657, more than 40% below where it started 2026, and roughly half its January level of $2.41. It trades beneath its 7-day average at $1.03, its 20-day at $1.06, its 50-day at $1.08 and its 200-day at $1.31 — every major moving average stacked overhead in ascending order.

The problem is arithmetic, not sentiment. Ripple releases 200 to 400 million XRP net into circulation every month on a published, verifiable schedule. The August release was the tightest in recent memory at 300 million net, executed with 700 million pre-locked before the unlock. Every spot XRP ETF in existence absorbs approximately 109 million tokens per month. That leaves roughly 191 million tokens of monthly surplus that the open market must clear, and the open market is not clearing it.

The ETF channel — the only credible absorption mechanism — has collapsed. Launch month drew $666 million. May drew $132 million. July drew $27.29 million with zero flows on 11 of 22 trading days. Combined assets across seven funds sit near $1 billion holding 992.5 million tokens, which is 1.56% of circulating supply against a mechanism releasing 3.6 billion tokens a year.

The value accrual channels are all small. Fees burn 27 XRP a day. Reserve requirements were cut 90% in December 2024. Bridge inventory at $1 trillion of annual flow would immobilize 1.6% of supply. RLUSD just crossed to majority residence on the XRP Ledger at $810 million against $756 million on Ethereum, and that matters only if transaction volume follows supply rather than tokens simply sitting there.

Ripple the company is executing. A $50 billion valuation, a $750 million buyback, $18.4 billion of quarterly RLUSD transfer volume, exchange balances at three-year lows, expanding institutional tokenization activity. None of it has translated into token demand, and two years of that pattern is evidence rather than noise.

One variable can change it. The CLARITY Act cleared Senate Banking 15–9 on May 14, has sat on the calendar since June 1, and received a cloture motion on the motion to proceed on August 8. The Senate returns September 14 with three weeks of floor time and a possible first procedural vote on September 15. Passage converts reversible interpretive guidance into statute and is the only credible route to the ETF inflows that would fix the supply balance.

August is XRP's worst month historically — a 0.43% thirteen-year average with four consecutive losses. The token is down 4.5% month to date with the streak intact and no scheduled catalyst before Jackson Hole on August 27, where the theme at least touches payments policy.

Base case $1.10 with the range holding. Bull case $1.22 and then $1.31 on CLARITY Act passage plus sustained ETF absorption above 200 million monthly. Bear case $0.97 and then $0.90 on a decisive loss of $1.00. The level that matters is $1.00, and the date that matters is September 15.

That's TradingNEWS