XRP News: Ripple (XRP-USD) Holds $2.40 — XRP Price Forecast Eyes $5–$12 if ETF Delays End

Ripple (XRP-USD) Builds Momentum at $2.40 as ETF Delay, Supply Shock, and Institutional Accumulation Redefine 2025 Outlook

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) continues to hold near $2.40, trading in a tight range after weeks of macro-driven pressure and delayed ETF approvals. The token slipped 1.3% in the last 24 hours but remains up over 90% year-to-date, supported by rising institutional positioning, a shrinking exchange supply, and renewed optimism around potential XRP spot ETF approvals once the U.S. government resumes full operations. Despite headwinds from U.S.–China trade tensions and a prolonged shutdown that froze SEC processing, on-chain accumulation by whales and major capital projections for XRP ETFs are shifting sentiment toward a late-year breakout scenario.

The current correction follows a period of elevated volatility that saw XRP hit intraday lows of $2.35 and highs near $2.50. Key support sits between $2.16 and $2.20, while technical traders are eyeing $2.64–$2.77 as immediate resistance levels. Momentum indicators remain mixed — the RSI (14) sits at 38.5, suggesting proximity to oversold levels, while the MACD (12,26) remains slightly negative at -0.132, confirming limited near-term strength. However, whale accumulation continues, with CoinGlass data showing $3.81 billion in open interest and a $15.4 million inflow on October 17, signaling persistent leveraged participation despite weaker spot volume.

ETF Catalysts and Supply Dynamics

The SEC’s pause on multiple XRP spot ETF filings — including those from Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise — remains the core short-term market drag. With deadlines passing between October 18 and 20, no rulings were issued, extending uncertainty across institutional desks. Yet optimism is high that approvals will come quickly after the government reopens. Tokentus CEO Oliver Michel expects simultaneous green lights for all pending filings, while Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg projects first-month inflows of $5 billion to $10 billion once ETFs launch. Even at the lower end, the potential capital injection dwarfs prior sector inflows — for context, Ethereum ETFs saw –$480 million net flows early on before reversing to $14.6 billion positive within 15 months.

Should XRP ETFs capture even half the 2025 Bitcoin ETF inflows, roughly $13.3 billion, the implications could be transformational. Using conservative modeling with a 90x inflow-to-valuation multiplier, that capital could add about $1.2 trillion to XRP’s market capitalization, lifting it from $143 billion to $1.34 trillion and implying a price near $22.48 — an 844% potential upside from current levels.

Institutional Positioning and Locked Supply

Ripple’s ongoing corporate maneuvers amplify this bullish case. The company’s $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury on October 16 expanded its institutional footprint into treasury management, targeting inefficiencies in legacy SWIFT-style payment networks. Simultaneously, the Evernorth project, backed by Ripple, is preparing a $1 billion public listing to establish the largest institutional XRP treasury, expected to hold over 126 million XRP in locked supply. This concentration of tokens for long-term institutional custody effectively reduces circulating liquidity, raising the probability of a 2025 supply shock once ETFs start operating

Technical Compression Signals Institutional Accumulation

From a technical standpoint, XRP’s consolidation around $2.35–$2.45 is forming a classic volatility compression pattern, often preceding a strong directional breakout. Historical data from 2017 and 2021 cycles show similar multi-week squeezes before explosive rallies exceeding 200% once ETF-type catalysts or regulatory breakthroughs emerged. TradingView volume heatmaps highlight increasing bid density below $2.30, indicating accumulation by large-scale buyers rather than retail churn. Every dip into that zone over the last 10 sessions has triggered immediate absorption — a pattern typically observed before institutional-driven runs.

Macro Headwinds Temper the Near-Term Outlook

Still, broader risk sentiment remains fragile. The U.S.–China tariff standoff, coupled with potential export restrictions on AI and fintech software, continues to suppress cross-border liquidity. Bitcoin dominance climbed to 59.3%, its highest since mid-2025, underscoring risk aversion in altcoins. XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin stands at 0.84, meaning its direction remains partly dependent on BTC’s ability to hold the $110,000 zone. A decisive Bitcoin breakout above $115,000 could unlock renewed altcoin momentum, while further macro tightening could delay XRP’s advance toward the $3 psychological threshold.

Market Structure and Derivatives Outlook

Futures data show rising long leverage at 2.8x average margin, suggesting traders are positioning for a short-term rebound. Funding rates remain slightly positive, confirming mild bullish bias despite spot stagnation. Options markets price a 34% implied volatility for the December expiration — moderate relative to historical spikes above 70% — indicating expectations of a controlled but upward-biased move into year-end.

Whale and Exchange Supply Trends

On-chain metrics from Santiment confirm that XRP whale wallets holding over 10 million XRP reached a record 317,500 addresses, while exchange balances fell to 3.9% of total supply — the lowest in two years. These trends mirror the early 2021 pre-rally pattern, when accumulation preceded XRP’s surge from $0.25 to $1.84. The declining liquid supply, combined with expected ETF inflows and locked treasuries, creates a tightening feedback loop on price once demand accelerates.

Scenario Analysis for 2025

If XRP sustains the $2.20 support and ETF approval materializes before year-end, price projections cluster between $3.40 and $5.50, representing a 40–130% upside range. In a bullish case where inflows reach $10 billion+ and Bitcoin stabilizes above $115,000, a move toward $12 aligns with the projection made by analyst Zach Rector, who envisions a December 2025 range of $5–$12 under strong ETF momentum. Conversely, failure to hold $2.15 could expose $1.94 and $1.58, triggering short-term liquidations, though structural bullishness would remain intact above $1.50.

Strategic View

Ripple’s ecosystem expansion — from institutional treasuries to real-world payment corridors — has positioned XRP (XRP-USD) as one of the few large-cap tokens with both speculative ETF upside and tangible transactional demand. Its fundamentals, tightening supply metrics, and forthcoming ETF catalysts point to a decisive re-rating phase once regulatory clarity returns.

At $2.40, XRP trades at a fraction of the projected ETF-driven valuation, and the risk-reward setup remains asymmetric. If capital inflows reach even conservative estimates, the token’s next leg could redefine its market structure heading into 2026. Based on the data, momentum, and locked-supply dynamics, XRP (XRP-USD) holds a Bullish / Buy bias for medium-term investors targeting the $5–$8 range within the next cycle.

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