XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD trading at $2.70 Support Tested, $100M Ripple ETF Demand Signals Breakout to $3.60–$5.00

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: ETF Surge, $2.70 Support Tested, and Bullish Patterns Hint at Recovery

XRP’s Struggle Around $2.70 and Resistance at $3.20–$3.50

Ripple (XRP-USD) has been battered in recent weeks, sliding to $2.70, its weakest level in nearly two months, and retreating over 26% from its monthly peak at $3.65. Analysts note the pair has repeatedly failed to secure a breakout above the $3.20–$3.50 resistance zone, a ceiling that has capped momentum since mid-September. Technicals highlight oversold conditions, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30, signaling the token may be primed for a rebound. If the $2.70 floor holds, XRP could retest $3.20 quickly, with scope to challenge $3.60 on strong volume. Failure here risks a sharper correction toward $2.37–$2.20.

ETF Catalysts Reshape Investor Sentiment

The debut of the Rex-Osprey Spot XRP ETF has altered market psychology around Ripple. The fund recorded $37.7 million in first-day trading volume, making it the largest ETF launch of 2025 by turnover. Within its first 90 minutes, it drew $24 million, with assets swelling to nearly $100 million in its first week. This mirrors the performance of Solana’s ETF, which accumulated $230 million and drove SOL up 70% in two months. If XRP ETFs follow a similar path, inflows could sustain a rally that pushes Ripple beyond its $5 psychological barrier, potentially reviving long-term targets around $10.

Bullish Technical Formations: Elliott Wave, Flag, and Cup-and-Handle

On higher timeframes, XRP remains within an Elliott Wave impulse cycle that began in June. The second corrective phase now converges with a double-bottom at $2.70, a pattern reinforced by a bullish flag and the formation of a cup-and-handle structure. The neckline sits at $3.20, aligning with immediate resistance. A decisive breakout here could ignite a measured move back to the yearly peak at $3.65, with extensions targeting $5.00 if momentum accelerates into Q4.

Community Momentum and Global Adoption Drive Upside

XRP’s bullish case is not purely technical. Ripple’s Seoul 2025 conference underscored international demand, with CEO Brad Garlinghouse praising the South Korean community as one of the most committed globally. Traders compared XRP’s current consolidation to its 2014–2016 structure, which preceded a parabolic run. Analysts now flag a potential trajectory toward $27 under favorable conditions. Beyond hype, XRP Ledger’s $350 million in tokenized real-world assets (RWA) and Ripple’s $741 million RLUSD stablecoin reserves solidify its role in cross-border settlement and asset tokenization.

Macroeconomic Pressure and Bitcoin’s Correlation

Macro headwinds remain decisive. Bitcoin’s $110,000 trade zone continues to dominate altcoin flows, and XRP’s correlation with BTC ensures that further weakness in Bitcoin could drag Ripple lower. Conversely, stabilization in Bitcoin would provide fuel for an XRP recovery. Traders must also weigh U.S. regulatory progress—spot ETF approvals are bullish, but uncertainty in Fed policy and global liquidity still weigh on crypto sentiment.

Comparisons With Emerging DeFi Projects

Investor focus has partially shifted toward newer DeFi protocols such as Mutuum Finance (MUTM), which has raised $16.25 million from 16,570 holders at a $0.035 presale price, with forecasts of 4,500% upside. While this siphons speculative capital from Ripple, it also underscores the pressure on XRP to deliver new catalysts beyond ETF inflows and RWA adoption. Ripple’s long-term survival rests on scaling institutional adoption and maintaining relevance in the evolving DeFi landscape.

Long-Term Price Outlook: $5 Capped or Breakout to $10?

Forecasts for Ripple (XRP-USD) diverge sharply. Conservative models cap upside around $5, a level tied to recurring resistance and weakening volumes. Optimistic analysts envision a breakout to $10, supported by ETF inflows and technical structures. More extreme long-term views stretch toward $27–$33, echoing past cycle multiples. The near-term pivot remains $2.70 support versus $3.20 resistance—a break of either side will define XRP’s trajectory into Q4.