XRP Price Forecast: Whales Offload $1.9B as Critical $2.65 Support Comes Under Threat
On-chain whale outflows of 640 million XRP alongside bearish RSI divergence and fading volume raise the risk of a drop toward the 50-week EMA near $2.06 | That's TradingNEWS
XRP-USD Whale Flow Signals Massive Distribution
On-Chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that top XRP holders have offloaded roughly 640 million tokens since July 9, a move amounting to nearly $1.91 billion at prices between $2.28 and $3.54. This degree of distribution—mirroring the November–January sell-off when whales reduced exposure even as price surged from $1.65 to $3.27—indicates that the largest addresses are rebalancing or exiting ahead of potential weakness. While internal reshuffling could account for some outflows, the 90-day moving average of whale flows confirms that net transfers have turned massively negative, cutting deeply into the supply held by smart money. Unless these addresses begin adding at least 5 million XRP per day, as highlighted by CryptoQuant’s Enigma Trader, the market will lack the foundational accumulation needed to sustain a genuine uptrend.
XRP-USD Technical Weakness Amid Bearish Divergence
A weekly chart of XRP/USD shows price carving higher highs through August, yet its Relative Strength Index has formed lower highs since January, a classic bearish divergence that warns of momentum exhaustion. This pattern echoes the April 2021 peak, where price continued to climb briefly before reversing sharply. Volume has evaporated during the most recent rally, reinforcing the warning: strength in price unsupported by trading activity often precedes corrections. The immediate technical support lies at the 20-week EMA near $2.55 and the critical $2.65 zone. A breach below these levels would expose the 50-week EMA at $2.06, potentially triggering a 30% slide back toward long-term mean-reversion levels.
XRP-USD Short-Term Chart Consolidation In A Descending Channel
Zooming in on the 4-hour timeframe, XRP has been trapped since late July in a descending parallel channel bounded by resistance around $3.02 and support near $2.91. Price has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 20-period and 50-period EMAs, confirming sellers’ grip. The hourly MACD lies below its signal line, while the RSI hovers under 50, reflecting muted buying pressure. Immediate resistance sits at $3.10—former local highs from early August—and at $3.185, the late-July rejection point. Only a sustained break above $3.25 would shift technical control back to the bulls; failure to hold channel support risks a swift drop to $2.80 and deeper tests of the $2.65–$2.55 area.
XRP-USD Institutional Adoption And ETF Aspirations
Despite on-chain selling, institutional developments in Asia are bolstering XRP’s long-term case. Korea’s BDACS added custody for XRP, enabling regulated deployments on major exchanges like Upbit and Coinone. In Japan, SBI Holdings filed two ETFs with the FSA, one specifically covering Bitcoin and XRP, promising regulated on-ramps for retail and institutional investors. These moves signal that Asia’s financial infrastructure increasingly accommodates XRP-USD as a settlement asset, potentially driving new demand once positions are established.
XRP-USD Regulatory Crossroads And Whale Accumulation Criteria
The ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit remains the system-level catalyst. Any settlement or favorable court ruling could trigger renewed confidence and institutional inflows. However, with whale flows in net outflow until they exceed 5 million tokens daily, the market remains structurally fragile. In the absence of consistent accumulation by large holders—an essential foundation for constructive trends—retail-driven rallies are likely to falter. Observers point to the necessity of sustained large-address inflows as the signal that smart money is ready to buy dips, without which price may remain capped.
XRP-USD Key Price Levels To Watch
Holding above $2.65 is non-negotiable for preventing a sharp downturn toward $2.06. Immediate bullish pivots require reclaiming and closing above $3.10, followed by $3.185 and then $3.25. Beyond that, $3.33 and $3.45 stand as breakout zones that would set the stage for retesting the all-time peak near $3.66. On the flip side, failure to defend $2.80 could see accelerated selling, targeting the lower Fibonacci support at $2.55 and potentially dragging XRP-USD below $2.50.
XRP-USD Market Outlook: Hold With Caution
With whales offloading $1.9 billion of XRP and technical indicators flashing exhaustion, short-term momentum looks bearish. Yet Asia’s institutional wings and looming regulatory clarity offer longer-term upside potential. Given the requirement of 5 million daily XRP inflows for trend reversals and the precarious position above $2.65, the prudent stance is to Hold until definitive accumulation and breakouts manifest, rather than buy into current rallies or chase stops.
