XRP Price Forecast: Whale Offloads Pressure 50-Day SMA as $5 Target Looms

Momentum Breather After July’s Breakout Above $3.60

XRP-USD climbed decisively out of its long-held $1.90–$2.00 range in late June, spiking to $3.65 at July’s peak as Bitcoin’s rally to $122,000 buoyed altcoin sentiment. Profit-taking ensued, dragging XRP back below $3.00 in the weeks that followed, but the 50-day moving average near $2.75 has repeatedly arrested declines. Weekend buying tests showed demand re-entering at that level, underscoring that short-term sellers have not yet overwhelmed the technical floor and that buyers remain on standby for renewed strength.

Whale Unloading and Dormant Supply Awakening

Large holders have averaged daily disposals of roughly $28 million in XRP over the past quarter, according to CryptoQuant, contributing to the token’s intra-July retreat. At the same time, on-chain data reveal that long-inactive wallets have reactivated, cutting the average holding age by 91 days—a 13 percent drop—suggesting major positions are moving and amplifying volatility. Historically, these dormant supply surges have marked both tops and bottoms, as strategic reallocations by early adopters can foreshadow rapid directional shifts.

AI-Driven Forecasts Clash on Near-Term Targets

Google’s Gemini model projects XRP reaching $4.45 by August 31, 2025, based on technical consolidation and a delayed Fed rate-cut cycle that may shift capital into altcoins later in Q3. Perplexity’s AI echoes a bullish bias for XRP through year-end 2025, while DeepSeek’s outlook pegs a more conservative $5 ceiling, noting lingering regulatory uncertainty. OpenAI’s ChatGPT has even sketched a $28 scenario for 2026, albeit contingent on broad tokenized finance adoption. These divergent AI calls highlight how machine-learning frameworks weigh factors—from macro tightening to RippleNet integration—differently, yet all identify the $3.60–$3.65 resistance as the key breakpoint for the next leg higher.

Extreme Valuation Scenario: The $3,380 Hypothesis

An outlier projection from “Future XRP” argues that if XRP’s 60 billion circulating tokens and a velocity of ten allow it to process $1.3 trillion in annual on-chain volume today, a shift to $100 trillion–$2 quadrillion in global finance could skyrocket the price to $3,380. Critics point out that SWIFT’s actual velocity approaches 200, implying a $166 price under similar throughput. Even so, the bold model underscores the theoretical upper bound should XRP commandeer a double-digit share of cross-border flows, digital asset trading and settlement volumes. Grok AI similarly deems a $200–$1,000 range plausible if XRP becomes a neutral settlement layer in a tokenized financial system, though acknowledges that a multi-thousand-dollar level would require unprecedented de-dollarization or fiat collapse.

Regulatory Catalysts: SEC Appeal and ETF Approvals in Play

XRP’s August 2 decline to $2.7675—down 6.5 percent on the day—coincided with the SEC’s silence on withdrawing its Ripple appeal, a prerequisite for spot-XRP ETF green lights. Five closed SEC sessions have passed since Judge Torres’s favorable partial ruling, yet without the agency voting to drop its appeal, exchanges remain on edge and ETF timelines stalled. A swift withdrawal would likely spark a rebound through $3.00, clear $3.20–$3.30 resistance, and set the stage for a run toward $5, potentially eclipsing the $3.6606 all-time high. Conversely, continued delay could prolong the current consolidation and keep bids muted around $2.70–$2.80.

On-Chain Accumulation and Exchange Supply Contraction

Despite whale sales, long-term investor confidence is evident as exchange reserves of XRP have declined 12 percent over the past month, signaling accumulation by holders planning multi-quarter stays. Wallet inflows outpacing outflows on smaller addresses suggest retail re-entry, even as large-scale offloading creates short windows of downward pressure. Historically, this pattern of diminishing exchange supply coupled with stable technical support precedes volatile breakouts rather than sustained slides.

Technical Roadmap: Key Levels to Watch

A daily close above $3.00 and $3.20 would confirm the end of the profit-taking phase and open the path to challenge July’s $3.65 apex. The 200-day EMA near $2.40 stands as the ultimate downside buffer, below which bears would target $2.00. The 14-day RSI at 44 indicates room for a move lower toward oversold territory around 30, but also suggests upside momentum can quickly reassert once buyers defend the mid-$2.70s.

Institutional Adoption and RippleNet Expansion

Ripple’s growing partnerships with banks and payment providers, plus JPMorgan’s acknowledgment of RippleNet as a cost-effective cross-border solution, underpin the long-term use case for XRP. As real-world asset tokenization pilots and on-demand liquidity services scale, institutional demand for XRP-USD settlement rails could surge. This increasing integration lends credence to forecasts in the $4–$5 range over coming quarters, provided macro headwinds ease and regulatory clarity arrives.

Strategic Verdict: Hold with Bullish Bias

Given the confluence of strong technical support at the 50-day MA, declining exchange reserves, AI-backed upside targets, and pending regulatory catalysts, XRP-USD presents a compelling risk/reward. While short-term swings may persist due to whale activity and SEC delays, the broader trajectory favors a rebound above $3.20 and a push toward $5 once ETF approvals and appeal withdrawals materialize. Hold existing positions and consider scaling in near $2.70–$2.80 support, with a bullish bias for a break beyond $3.65.

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