XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD $2.85 Support, $340M Whale Buys, and October Ripple ETF Decisions Set Stage for Breakout

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: Whales Add $340M as ETF Countdown and Supply Shock Push XRP Toward Breakout

XRP Price Holds $2.85 Amid Intense Resistance at $3.00

Ripple’s XRP-USD trades at $2.85, steady after climbing four sessions in a row from a September low of $2.69. The recovery stalled at $2.93 as sellers defended the 50-day EMA near $2.96, forming a clear ceiling at the psychological $3.00 mark. Price action shows XRP locked inside a tightening wedge, with support anchored at $2.74 and deeper protection at the 200-day EMA near $2.59. This compression signals an imminent breakout, with momentum likely to ignite once $3.05 is cleared.

Whale Accumulation Signals Aggressive Confidence in XRP Rally

Large wallets have made bold moves during this consolidation. On-chain data shows that addresses holding between 10M and 100M XRP purchased over 120M tokens in just three days, a buy worth approximately $340 million. These entities now control 8% of circulating supply, using the sub-$3.00 range as an accumulation zone. Historically, such buying pressure from whales has preceded explosive rallies, especially when paired with macro catalysts and ETF headlines.

Institutional Lockups Create Supply Shock Across Exchanges

The supply picture adds fuel to the bullish case. Treasury commitments from Axelar Network (10B XRP) and Flare Networks (5B XRP) combined with Coinbase’s custody reduction—from 970M XRP down to just 32M—drastically tighten liquidity. Analysts project that after these institutional lockups complete, only 21M XRP may remain freely tradable on exchanges. Against a backdrop of surging demand, such scarcity creates conditions for accelerated upside once buyers overwhelm resistance.

ETF Decisions Could Unlock Next Wave of Institutional Inflows

Momentum now hinges on the regulatory timeline. While the REX-Osprey XRP ETF already attracted $38M in volume last week, the bigger event lies with the 15 pending SEC ETF applications. The most immediate decision comes on October 18, 2025, when the 21Shares Core XRP Trust faces a review deadline. Franklin Templeton’s filing is also queued for Q4. Approval would replicate the Bitcoin ETF boom of 2023, when BTC surged 85% in Q4, and could trigger a rerating of XRP’s valuation across institutional portfolios.

Macro Headwinds and Dollar Weakness Shape Crypto Sentiment

While ETF speculation builds, macro conditions remain equally influential. The U.S. dollar has shown temporary strength, supported by jobs data, yet its broader trend remains downward after four Fed rate cuts since late 2024. Inflation of 2.7% YoY still overshoots the Fed’s 2% target, while political risk from a possible U.S. government shutdown could delay payrolls data—removing a critical input for Fed decision-making. Such uncertainty historically favors assets like XRP, where investors seek alternatives outside the fiat system.

Technical Picture: Triangle Compression Ahead of Breakout

Chart structures emphasize how tight the setup has become. XRP is trading below the 50-day EMA at $2.96 but above the 200-day EMA at $2.59, with the RSI hovering at 47, suggesting neutral momentum. Candle structures show upper and lower shadows widening, a classic sign of indecision before a strong move. A decisive daily close above $3.05 would validate a bullish breakout, unlocking upside targets at $3.25, $3.33, and $3.60, with room to extend toward $4.20 if volume surpasses the 6B token daily average. A failure here risks a slide back to $2.59 or even $2.50 major support.

Seasonality: October’s Mixed Record Versus Q4 Bullish Bias

October has been historically inconsistent for XRP. The token suffered -22.9% in October 2018 and -16.7% in October 2024, but posted double-digit gains in 2019 (+15.1%) and 2021 (+16.9%). This erratic seasonality contrasts with Bitcoin’s reliable “Uptober” rallies. Yet Q4 as a whole skews bullish, making this October different as ETF speculation, whale activity, and supply crunch conditions align in XRP’s favor.

Forward Scenarios and Price Targets for XRP-USD

• Base Case: A breakout above $3.05 lifts XRP into the $3.25–$3.62 range in October, offering 15–25% upside.

• Bull Case: ETF approval and institutional flows extend gains toward $5.00–$9.00 by year-end, a rally of over 200% from current levels.

• Aggressive Case: With both ETF approval and Ripple’s bank charter approval, XRP could test $10.00–$20.00 in 2026, fueled by adoption in cross-border settlement and treasury management.

At $2.85, XRP sits at a pivotal inflection point. Resistance at $3.00 has repeatedly capped upside, but whale accumulation and supply-side tightening suggest the breakout probability is tilting higher. The short-term verdict: XRP is a Buy, with near-term targets between $3.25 and $3.60 and scope for year-end expansion toward $5–$9 if catalysts align.

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