XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Battles $2.23 As $245M XRP ETF Inflows Clash With Whale Selling

Ripple (XRP-USD) Battles $2.17 Support As Whale Sell-Off And ETF Profit-Taking Drive Extreme Volatility

Ripple (XRP-USD) trades at $2.23 (+3.04%) after a brutal week that saw the token plunge over 12% from its recent peak amid heavy whale selling and a market-wide crypto correction. The latest drawdown followed a trio of XRP ETF launches that initially sparked optimism—Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF (Nov 13), Amplify’s fund (Nov 18), and Franklin Templeton’s EZRP (Nov 18)—but quickly triggered a “sell-the-news” reaction. Despite $245 million in ETF inflows, XRP fell sharply as large holders liquidated over 200 million tokens within 48 hours of the Canary debut.

This paradox—rising institutional inflows amid collapsing price action—has created a tense divergence between long-term fundamentals and short-term market psychology. The data reveal that ETF demand is genuine but not yet strong enough to offset the outflows from whales and leveraged traders unwinding after Bitcoin’s 5% slide below $90,000.

ETF Frenzy Meets Profit-Taking Cycle: Canary’s $245M Debut And Franklin’s $1.5T Entry

Canary Capital’s Spot XRP ETF (XRPC) marked the largest debut of 2025, recording $58 million in first-day volume and cumulative inflows surpassing $268 million within 72 hours. ETF specialist Eric Balchunas noted it outperformed 900 ETF launches this year, edging out Solana’s BSOL ETF ($57M). However, this surge was immediately followed by a 12% price drop, mirroring Bitcoin’s 2024 post-ETF slump.

The momentum intensified as Franklin Templeton, managing $1.5 trillion in AUM, launched its EZRP ETF on the CBOE. With Bitwise, 21Shares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree all set to list their own XRP funds, analysts forecast up to $7.2 billion in total inflows over the next 12 months. If ETF issuers accumulate XRP steadily through over-the-counter (OTC) channels at $600 million per month, as modeled by the XRPL Foundation, XRP’s market capitalization could expand by $720 billion, theoretically pushing prices toward $14 under favorable liquidity conditions.

Institutional Lag And The T+1 Settlement Effect Slow ETF Impact

Despite strong institutional demand, Fabio Marzella, Director at the XRPL Foundation, explained that ETF inflows don’t immediately translate into spot price gains. Funds operate on T+1 settlement cycles, meaning investor money only reaches issuers a day later, and much of the XRP accumulation happens off-exchange via OTC desks. This masks buying pressure, delaying visible market impact.

As Marzella emphasized, ETF inflows will likely take weeks, not days, to appear in on-chain metrics. The lag coincides with broader market weakness—over $1.1 trillion in crypto value erased in 41 days—and makes near-term volatility inevitable. Still, the slow but steady institutional bid could build a foundation for mid-term recovery once speculative selling exhausts.

Whales Dump 200 Million XRP, Triggering Market Dislocation

On-chain trackers confirmed that whales sold approximately 200 million XRP within two days of Canary’s ETF debut. This mass distribution amplified the “sell-the-news” correction and drove $43.96 million in liquidations across derivatives markets in 24 hours, per Coinglass.

Glassnode data highlight the structural fragility of XRP’s market: only 58.5% of total supply remains in profit, the lowest since November 2024, when XRP traded near $0.53. This means 41.5% of coins (~26.5 billion XRP) are held at a loss—reflecting a market still top-heavy with late buyers from the 2025 rally. As selling intensified, liquidity thinned around $2.20–$2.15, leaving XRP vulnerable to sharp intraday drops despite institutional inflows.

Technical Breakdown: Descending Triangle And Weak Momentum Confirm Bearish Bias

XRP’s chart structure remains precarious. The token trades below every major exponential moving average—20 EMA ($2.40), 50 EMA ($2.48), 100 EMA ($2.59), and 200 EMA ($2.56)—confirming a medium-term downtrend. The Parabolic SAR dots sit firmly above price action, while the RSI (14) rests near 38.6, reflecting weak but not oversold conditions. MACD (12,26) at –0.08560 and Momentum (10) at –0.1159 underscore that selling pressure dominates.

A key structural pattern—a symmetrical triangle stretching from the $3.90 high to $1.80 support—is nearing its apex. XRP now trades in the lower half of this formation, where rebounds repeatedly fade at descending resistance. Unless price reclaims $2.40–$2.48, the setup leans toward a bearish continuation.

Support And Resistance Map: $2.05 Critical To Avoid $1.80 Retest

Immediate support sits at $2.15, with the next critical level at $2.10, coinciding with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-to-November advance. Below that lies the high-volume node near $2.05, a line that has defended price since September. A break below $2.05 risks accelerating losses toward $1.95, and potentially the $1.80 washout zone, which marked the last major accumulation base.

Resistance remains layered: 50-day SMA ($2.508) caps recovery attempts, while the descending trendline from the April high near $2.80 defines the upper boundary of the compression pattern. A daily close above $2.52 could trigger forced short covering, potentially opening a move toward $2.60–$2.85, the next major resistance cluster.

Fear Index At 15 Mirrors April’s Bottom As Sentiment Hits Extreme Pessimism

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 15, matching the April 2025 reading that preceded XRP’s 96% rebound from $1.79 to $3.54 within three months. Historical correlations suggest extreme fear often signals exhaustion phases rather than trend continuation.

However, the distinction this time lies in macro conditions: Bitcoin’s consolidation below $90,000 and Ethereum’s drift toward $3,100 have dragged sentiment across altcoins. Despite this, Ripple’s network fundamentals are improving—Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin adoption has surged from $50M to $1B in market cap, and Ripple Prime, a new institutional platform, now processes $2B in monthly settlement flows.

Structural Growth: RLUSD And Institutional Prime Platform Strengthen Utility Layer

While price remains under pressure, Ripple’s business expansion continues. The company’s Prime platform integrates direct institutional settlement in RLUSD, offering a compliant on-ramp for U.S. financial firms. The stablecoin’s 20x YoY growth reflects mounting real-world usage, giving Ripple a fundamental edge over speculative altcoins.

This institutionalization aligns with ETF-driven exposure, meaning that while spot price lags, on-chain and off-chain infrastructure demand for XRP’s ecosystem continues to expand. Combined, ETFs and RLUSD form a dual pathway for capital inflow—one through regulated financial products, another through settlement adoption.

Liquidity Fractures: $33M Outflows Add To $1B Daily Liquidations

According to Coinglass, XRP recorded $33 million in net outflows in the last 24 hours, extending a multi-week stretch of distribution. The broader market saw $1 billion in crypto liquidations, with Bitcoin absorbing $400 million of that figure. Despite this, trading volumes for XRP jumped 70%, signaling heightened activity rather than abandonment.

High-frequency traders continue to exploit the $2.10–$2.25 range, reinforcing compression but also setting the stage for explosive volatility once either side of the triangle breaks. Historically, similar setups in 2023 and 2024 led to 25–40% swings within a week once compression ended.

ETF Accumulation Scenarios: Scarcity Vs. Supply Control

XRP analyst Chad Steingraber outlined two likely ETF accumulation paths. In one, issuers slowly acquire XRP over a year, keeping prices stable while supply shrinks—a scarcity-driven rally once the market tightens. In the other, rapid accumulation pushes XRP higher immediately, reducing how much ETFs can buy but amplifying price discovery. Both outcomes ultimately benefit holders as liquidity concentration builds over time.

Given that ETF issuers purchase primarily via authorized participants (APs) through OTC markets, the accumulation effect may remain invisible to retail traders for weeks. Once those holdings are reflected in custody and circulation reports, analysts expect renewed speculative rotation back into XRP.

TradingNews Verdict: Ripple (XRP-USD) – Hold With Bullish Bias Toward $2.60 If $2.05 Holds

XRP sits at a decisive point. Despite short-term weakness from whale distribution, ETF-driven profit-taking, and broader crypto liquidation cascades, the underlying institutional framework remains resilient. The combination of $245M ETF inflows, Prime network growth, and stable $2.05–$2.10 support forms a strong technical and structural base.

If XRP-USD maintains closes above $2.05, a recovery toward $2.40–$2.60 is probable, with a potential breakout beyond $2.85 once ETF inflows fully translate into spot demand. A sustained break below $2.05, however, would expose the market to a retest of $1.80.

Based on all technical, on-chain, and ETF flow data, TradingNews rates Ripple (XRP-USD) as HOLD, with a short-term bearish but medium-term bullish bias. Structural support from institutional growth and historical sentiment indicators suggest XRP remains positioned for an eventual rebound once selling pressure fades and ETF liquidity stabilizes.

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