XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds Near $2.65 as Traders Watch Fed Decision and ETF Hopes for Breakout Toward $3

XRP-USD Builds Strength Around $2.65 Ahead of Fed Decision and ETF Speculation

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) trades near $2.65, up about 2% in the past 24 hours, as traders weigh macro catalysts including the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut and rising optimism surrounding a potential XRP ETF approval. The token remains one of the most closely watched assets in the crypto market, consolidating tightly within the $2.55–$2.75 range. Market data shows XRP’s market capitalization at $157.8 billion, maintaining its spot as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency globally.

The rebound from October’s low of $2.18 to current levels represents a 21% recovery, though the price still trades about 6% below its October peak of $2.80. Technical data indicates a strong base forming above $2.55, with buyers defending this zone aggressively. Exchange volume rose 18% to $5.47 billion, highlighting increasing participation from both retail and institutional investors.

Technical Compression Indicates Breakout Formation

On the daily chart, XRP’s price action forms a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that typically precedes major breakouts. Resistance sits between $2.70 and $2.75, where the 20-day and 100-day EMAs converge, while support remains anchored around $2.55–$2.60 near the 200-day EMA. A confirmed close above $2.75 would open the door toward $3.00, with extended targets near $3.20–$3.60 if volume expands.

The RSI at 61 suggests moderate bullish momentum but not yet overbought, leaving room for continuation. Momentum indicators have recovered from neutral zones seen last week when the RSI dropped below 50. Derivatives data further confirms this buildup—futures open interest stands near $4.6 billion, mostly unchanged, while options volume has doubled to over $1 million, signaling that traders are positioning for volatility in either direction.

On-Chain Flows Confirm Accumulation by Large Holders

On-chain analytics show persistent accumulation. Coinglass data recorded $7.2 million in net outflows on October 29, continuing a monthly pattern of steady withdrawals from exchanges. This behavior—tokens leaving exchanges—often reflects holder confidence and long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio on Binance stands at 2.3:1, favoring bullish positioning despite near-term caution.

A deeper review of whale behavior reveals that top XRP wallets have increased their holdings by roughly 1.4% month-over-month, while smaller retail wallets have shown minimal activity—another indication that institutional traders are quietly positioning for the next large move.

TD Sequential and RSI Signals Warn of Short-Term Correction

Despite the generally bullish structure, XRP’s TD Sequential indicator, known for its precision in marking reversals, has flashed a sell signal—the fifth in four months. Historically, this model has preceded pullbacks of 20–25%, such as the July 22 drop from $3.55 to $2.70, and the August slide from $2.85 to $2.30. Current readings suggest potential for a temporary dip toward $2.45–$2.50, which could serve as a reset before renewed momentum higher.

Analyst Ali Martinez notes the repeated accuracy of this pattern and emphasizes that these signals often occur at mid-trend pauses, not necessarily major tops. The RSI divergence between price highs and momentum peaks further supports the idea of a short cooldown before a sustained breakout.

Macro Catalysts: Fed Decision and ETF Optimism Lift Sentiment

Macro drivers remain pivotal. With markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut, a dovish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could weaken the U.S. dollar and send cryptocurrencies—including XRP—higher. A hawkish pause, on the other hand, could pressure risk assets temporarily, possibly dragging XRP back to $2.40 support.

Adding to optimism, speculation around an XRP ETF approval has intensified, with analysts estimating a 95–100% probability of approval by early 2026. Such a development could attract $4–10 billion in institutional inflows, comparable to early Bitcoin ETF demand. The structural benefit of ETF integration—particularly through partnerships with custodians like Coinbase and BitGo—could transform XRP into a top liquidity instrument for cross-border settlement and DeFi operations.

Historical Pattern Suggests Coiling Phase Before Breakout

Comparing 2025’s structure to early-year cycles, XRP’s movement mirrors the February 2025 consolidation when prices oscillated between $1.98 and $2.70 before a sharp 37% rally. The current compression, lasting over 70 days, suggests volatility buildup typical of late-stage triangles. Analysts such as Blockchain Backer and EGRAG Crypto argue that as long as XRP maintains higher lows above $2.40, the broader uptrend remains intact, with Fibonacci retracement levels indicating potential resistance at $3.20 and $3.55.

Market Sentiment and Long-Term Fundamentals Reinforce Bullish Outlook

Despite near-term caution, XRP’s long-term fundamentals remain among the strongest in the crypto market. Ripple’s payment infrastructure now supports 90% of global FX corridors, processing over $70 billion in cumulative transaction volume across more than 90 payout channels. The network’s efficiency and regulatory progress—especially after the SEC case resolution—have improved institutional trust.
Furthermore, XRP’s low transaction cost ($0.0005 per transfer) and 3–5 second settlement times continue to give it a technological edge in cross-border payments versus competitors like Stellar or SWIFT.

The total active addresses have risen 8.6% month-over-month, while daily transaction volume has crossed 2.1 million—the highest since June 2024. Developer activity also accelerated after Ripple announced plans to expand its tokenized asset infrastructure, supporting stablecoins and CBDCs on the XRP Ledger, increasing utility and potential valuation over the medium term.

Verdict: BUY (Bullish While Above $2.55)

XRP’s consolidation above $2.55 amid tightening volatility signals a coiling phase before a directional breakout. The technical picture remains constructive, supported by strong on-chain accumulation, a favorable Fed backdrop, and growing institutional appetite through ETF speculation.
While short-term corrections toward $2.45–$2.50 cannot be ruled out, the risk-reward setup remains attractive for medium-term traders targeting $3.00–$3.20, with potential extension toward $3.60–$3.80 if ETF momentum materializes.

Verdict: BUY — Bullish bias sustained while XRP-USD trades above $2.55; target range $3.20–$3.60 in the coming months.

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