XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Stabilizes Near $2.90 as Ripple ETF Momentum, SEC Clarity, and Whale Accumulation Drive $5–$7 Outlook

XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Faces $2.71 Support as Ripple ETF Bets and Legal Clarity Fuel $5–$7 Outlook

XRP’s Current Levels and Key Technical Structure

Ripple’s token XRP (XRP-USD) is consolidating around $2.86–$2.91, up 4.27% in the last 24 hours but still trapped below the heavy resistance band between $3.20 and $3.64. The $2.71 floor has become a pivotal base; repeated tests of this level since August show buyers defending it with conviction. A decisive breakout above $3.20 would open the way to $3.40 and possibly retests of the all-time high at $3.64. On-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-Score remain mid-cycle, well below overheated territory, leaving room for an extension toward $5–$7 in late 2025.

Legal Clarity and ETF Momentum Support XRP

The SEC settlement finalized last month classified XRP as a non-security when traded on public exchanges, removing the multi-year regulatory overhang. This clarity coincides with a wave of XRP ETF applications from major players like Grayscale and Bitwise. One fund from REX-Osprey already launched in September, while further approvals are expected in October. If ETFs attract billions in flows, supply constraints could trigger a sharp demand-driven rally, especially with whale wallets quietly accumulating.

On-Chain Data and Whale Behavior

Addresses holding between 10K and 100K XRP have shown no capitulation during recent corrections, a stark contrast to retail outflows. Circulating supply on exchanges continues to decline, hinting at a looming supply squeeze if institutional inflows accelerate. These signals mirror the conditions seen in 2017, when XRP staged a 37,800% rally after a record quarterly close.

Macro Backdrop and Market Context

XRP’s performance is unfolding as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) stabilizes near $114,214 and Ethereum (ETH-USD) climbs back to $4,199, reviving overall market sentiment. If Bitcoin maintains above $110,000 into “Uptober,” altcoins like XRP stand to benefit from renewed risk-on flows. The U.S. dollar weakening and Fed rate cut expectations also favor crypto assets broadly.

Risks: Technical Divergences and Pattern Signals

Despite bullish fundamentals, risks remain. XRP is currently trading 470% above its November 2024 low of $0.50, raising concerns of overheating. The weekly chart shows a broadening wedge formation, with resistance repeatedly capping rallies. Momentum is diverging: the RSI is falling while price pushes higher, a pattern that preceded the 2018 crash. A rejection at the upper wedge trendline could drag XRP toward $2.61 (200-day EMA) or even $1.27 (200-week EMA) if sellers regain control.

Speculative Rotation: Meme Coins and DeFi Rivals

While XRP consolidates, speculative money is chasing AlphaPepe (ALPE), a meme coin priced at just $0.00684, with over 1,600 holders and APR staking yields as high as 85%. The viral hype mirrors the early days of SHIB and PEPE. Similarly, Mutuum Finance (MUTM) has raised $16.52 million with a presale price of $0.035, offering DeFi lending mechanics. These rivals attract high-risk appetite capital, but lack the institutional credibility that XRP has secured through legal clarity and payment-sector adoption.

Investment Outlook: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

At current prices near $2.90, XRP remains in a consolidation range. The bull case hinges on ETF approvals and sustained legal clarity, opening the door for a rally toward $5–$7 by year-end. The bear case points to technical divergences and wedge resistance, with downside risk toward $2.40–$1.60 if momentum fails. Balancing both, the stance is Buy on dips toward $2.70, with conviction that institutional catalysts and whale accumulation outweigh short-term corrective risks.

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