XRP’s Bearish Technical Indicators Raise Alarm
The technical analysis of XRP-USD reveals a concerning picture. A prominent descending triangle pattern on the daily chart suggests the potential for a 45% drop if critical support levels fail. The immediate support lies between $1.77 and $1.90, areas that have been tested multiple times in the past months. If these levels break, XRP could fall all the way to $1.20, sending a signal of further downside risk. Currently, XRP is hovering around $2.08, with a bearish outlook confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has recently dropped to 39.56, indicating increasing selling pressure.
Paul Howard, Director at Wincent, points out that XRP’s price movements are often more influenced by product news than broader market trends. However, the current technical breakdown highlights that the price could face additional pressure if key support zones fail to hold. With institutional support waning, XRP seems increasingly detached from broader market trends, signaling a tough road ahead unless it breaks above resistance levels such as $2.26 or sees positive developments from ETFs or other catalysts.
Declining Network Activity and Whale Selling Add to the Pressure
One of the core issues weighing on XRP’s price is declining network activity on the XRP Ledger. According to data from XRPScan.com, daily active addresses have dropped to around 30,000, a significant decline that signals reduced transaction volume and liquidity. This downturn in network engagement reflects a broader decline in demand for XRP, compounded by a drop in retail interest, as evidenced by the waning social dominance metrics.
Additionally, large XRP holders, often referred to as "whales," have been actively selling into price strength, exacerbating the bearish momentum. These whales, who began liquidating positions in Q4 2024, have continued to sell into recent rallies, further adding downward pressure on the price. This combination of reduced network engagement and whale selling is a significant contributor to XRP’s price troubles, as demand simply cannot keep up with the selling supply.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Impact on XRP’s Price
Beyond technical patterns and network issues, macroeconomic factors are also playing a crucial role in XRP’s current price decline. The broader cryptocurrency market is facing significant headwinds, with investors bracing for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the potential for rate hikes or inflationary pressures. The recent tariffs announced by President Trump, which target goods from over 100 countries, have also raised concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown, further weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like XRP.
Moreover, the aftermath of a $1.3 trillion crypto market correction in early April, triggered by these tariffs and economic uncertainty, saw XRP plummet by nearly 45% from its peak of $3.20 to around $1.80. These macroeconomic uncertainties have led to a widespread risk-off sentiment, causing many investors to pull back from speculative assets, further contributing to XRP’s recent struggles.
Profit-Taking and Increased Selling Pressure Following a Strong Rally
XRP’s price surge during Q4 2024, which saw an impressive rally of over 600%, created an environment ripe for profit-taking. After reaching a high of $3.20 in January 2025, traders began to lock in profits, leading to increased selling pressure. This profit-taking was further exacerbated in early April 2025, when over $1 billion in XRP positions were liquidated, adding to the downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. This massive wave of liquidations is part of the reason XRP has struggled to maintain upward momentum, as traders continue to exit their positions amid uncertainty.
The surge in selling volume during the price decline is a clear indicator that XRP’s price is under heavy pressure from both retail traders and institutional investors. Without new buying interest to absorb this selling pressure, XRP’s price could face further declines, especially if broader market sentiment remains negative.
Regulatory Clarity and ETF Delays: Delayed Optimism for XRP
On the regulatory front, Ripple has made significant strides in its legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company reached a $50 million settlement with the SEC, which has removed some of the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP. However, the market’s response to this news has been lukewarm, as many analysts believe the settlement was already priced in.
Additionally, delays in the approval of spot XRP Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have dampened optimism. While there is a 65-87% probability that spot XRP ETFs could be approved by year-end, the postponement of these approvals is causing frustration among investors. In contrast, the launch of XRP Futures ETFs, while a step in the right direction, is not having the same price impact, leaving XRP without the institutional boost it was hoping for.
Ripple’s Strategic Shift: The RLUSD Stablecoin and Its Impact on XRP
Ripple’s recent strategic shift toward its RLUSD stablecoin has introduced another layer of uncertainty. The RLUSD stablecoin is gaining traction as a bridge asset for cross-border transactions, which may divert attention away from XRP’s role within Ripple’s ecosystem. This shift has sparked concerns among investors, as some question whether XRP will remain central to Ripple’s long-term vision. While RLUSD could potentially enhance the utility of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), the market’s focus on this new product could be causing speculation around XRP’s future role, contributing to the bearish sentiment.
XRP Price Outlook: Will the Bulls Return?
Despite the challenges, there are several potential catalysts that could turn XRP’s price around in the long term. Spot ETF approvals, which analysts estimate have a 77% chance of happening by year-end, could spark institutional demand and push XRP’s price back toward $3. Additionally, a reduction in XRP’s circulating supply, driven by an increase in burned fees on the XRP Ledger, could support price growth if demand rises. Ripple’s continued commitment to transparency and its shift toward more institutional products also signals a long-term positive outlook for XRP.
However, these catalysts are not immediate, and XRP’s short-term outlook remains bearish unless key resistance levels such as $2.26 are broken. As the market continues to navigate through global economic uncertainty and crypto-specific challenges, XRP’s price could remain volatile, making it essential for investors to monitor key technical levels and news developments closely.
XRP’s price actions in the coming months will depend largely on broader market sentiment, institutional interest, and regulatory developments. While the current market conditions are challenging, XRP’s long-term potential remains intact, with several bullish catalysts on the horizon.
