XRP-USD ($1.325) Holds Up as Crypto Sells Off, With ETF Buyers 18% Underwater — $1.04 Target if $1.26 Breaks

XRP is trading at $1.325, down 1.53% to 2.42% over 24 hours across major venues, after a 4.96% rally on Wednesday carried it to $1.36 and an intraday high near $1.40, a one-week peak. The 24-hour range runs from $1.33 down to the current lows. At $1.325, XRP’s market capitalization stands at $83.69 billion on a circulating supply of 63.13 billion tokens, ranking it fifth among crypto assets. Spot volume over 24 hours reached $1.93 billion on the largest venue.

The relative performance stands out. Bitcoin fell 2.54% over 24 hours to $81,523, breaking below $82,000. Ether dropped 4.56% to $2,395.85, losing $2,400. Solana fell 2.88% to $103.85. XRP’s loss of 1.5% to 2.4% sits at the better end of the large-cap range. Early Thursday, as the rest of the market sold off, XRP was still up 0.94% at $1.34 while Bitcoin and Ether were already under pressure.

The argument of this forecast is that XRP’s fundamentals and its price are moving in different directions. On the fundamental side, Ripple keeps building institutional infrastructure for RLUSD, its dollar stablecoin, on the XRP Ledger. On Thursday alone, Ripple and Swiss working-capital provider Arf announced RLUSD settlement liquidity for cross-border payment firms on the XRP Ledger. That follows Standard Chartered’s launch of RLUSD custody and new deals with DriveWealth and Meritz Securities. On the price side, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.80 billion since launch but hold only $1.471 billion in assets, which means the average ETF buyer is losing money. Their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks just ended a long streak of inflows.

That tension explains XRP’s range. Ecosystem growth gives the token a reason to hold up better than Bitcoin and Ether on bad days. Underwater ETF holders and Ripple’s monthly escrow releases cap rallies, because every move toward $1.40 runs into supply from investors looking to break even. Wednesday’s push to $1.40 failed at exactly that kind of level.

The levels are clear. Support sits at $1.30, then $1.26, the October 18 low. Below that, $1.04 is the June 30 price that marked the 2026 low area. Resistance sits at $1.36, then $1.40, the October 10 level and Wednesday’s peak, and $1.49–$1.51, where XRP traded at the start of October. A break above $1.40 opens a run toward $1.66, September’s monthly peak.

Wednesday’s Rally and Thursday’s Fade: From $1.40 Back to $1.325

Wednesday was XRP’s strongest day in more than a week. The token rose 4.96% to $1.36 over the 24 hours captured in Wednesday’s evening snapshot, a one-week high. The rally tracked the broader crypto bounce: Bitcoin rose 2.28% to $84,333, Ether 2.44% to $2,493, and total crypto market capitalization climbed 2.2% to $2.9 trillion. XRP outperformed both of the larger assets on the day, with early Thursday prints showing a 24-hour range of $1.33 to $1.40.

The fade came with the rest of the market. As Asian chip stocks collapsed, Korea’s KOSPI fell 5%, Brent crude rose to $111.99 after a drone strike near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield, and U.S. equity futures slid, crypto reversed. Bitcoin dropped from its $84,808 peak to below $82,000. XRP gave back its gains more slowly: it held $1.34 in the early European session, was at $1.32 by 8 a.m. ET and traded at $1.3249 by 9:42 a.m. ET.

The liquidation data shows XRP’s derivatives market is smaller and calmer than its peers’. Over the 24 hours to early Thursday, XRP liquidations totaled $6.17 million, against $110 million for Bitcoin, $95.02 million for Ether and $12.02 million for Solana. Total crypto liquidations reached $359 million in that window. XRP’s share of the forced selling was 1.7%, well below its share of market value. Less leverage means smaller forced moves in both directions, which helps explain why XRP falls less on bad days.

Thursday’s broader numbers confirm the risk-off move. More than 100,000 traders were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, with total liquidations of $431 million, 60% from longs. In the hour before 17:17 UTC, longs accounted for $49.94 million of $51.59 million in total liquidations. XRP wasn’t a major contributor to that selling, which is part of its relative strength.

For the forecast, the two-day pattern shows XRP’s character in the current market. It rallies with the market on good days and holds up better on bad ones. That is useful in a falling market. It doesn’t guarantee XRP will avoid a breakdown if Bitcoin loses $80,000. Relative strength in a selloff still means losses, just smaller ones.

Spot XRP ETFs: $1.80 Billion In, $1.471 Billion Held, and the First Weekly Outflow in 13 Weeks

The ETF data defines XRP’s supply overhang. U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which launched in November 2025, have taken in cumulative net inflows of $1.80 billion. Their net assets stood at $1.471 billion as of October 16. The gap means investors have collectively lost $329 million on their XRP ETF holdings, about 18% of the money they put in. Most ETF buyers entered at prices well above $1.325.

The funds hold a meaningful share of supply. Six U.S. funds held 1.17 billion XRP as of October 20, 1.2% of the total 100 billion supply. That is down from 1.19 billion XRP, worth $1.77 billion, on October 3. ETF holdings equal 1.79% of XRP’s market capitalization. The Bitwise XRP ETF leads, with $681.8 million of cumulative inflows, 39.2% of the category total. Canary’s XRPC has $484 million of historical net inflows.

The flow trend has turned. For the week ending October 16, spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million of net outflows, ending a 13-week inflow streak that ran since July. The week’s pattern: no net flows on October 12 and 13, a $740,000 inflow on October 14, all into the Bitwise fund, a $105,000 outflow on October 15 and a $2.47 million outflow on October 16, all from Canary’s XRPC. The funds then recorded no flows on October 19 and 20. Over the prior 30 sessions, from September 4 to October 16, they took in $118.3 million.

The outflows are small relative to the funds’ size. $1.84 million is about 0.1% of $1.47 billion in assets. But the trend matters more than the size. Inflows of $20 million on September 22 and $22.6 million on September 25 coincided with XRP’s monthly peak near $1.66. As the price fell, flows dried up. ETF buyers have been buying strength and stepping back on weakness, which offers little support at lower prices.

The contrast with Bitcoin is sharp. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.0747 billion from October 19 to 21 while XRP ETFs saw no inflows for two straight sessions. Institutional money returning to crypto this week has gone to Bitcoin first. For XRP, the ETF channel is neutral for now. A string of new inflows would be the clearest signal that the 13-week streak’s end was a pause rather than a turn.

Ripple and Arf: RLUSD Settlement Liquidity Lands on the XRP Ledger

The fundamental news came Thursday. Ripple and Arf, a Swiss-regulated provider of short-term working capital, announced a partnership to bring RLUSD-powered settlement liquidity to the XRP Ledger for licensed cross-border payment companies. Arf handles $10 billion in annual settlement volume. The arrangement lets payment firms borrow RLUSD on the XRP Ledger to fund transactions while international transfers settle, then repay once their own funds arrive. Repayment periods run from one to five days.

The structure ties directly to XRP. RLUSD supplies the settlement capital, while XRP covers transaction fees and the reserve requirements needed to use the ledger. Every payment firm that uses the arrangement needs XRP to pay fees and hold reserves. The rollout comes in phases: the first covers direct RLUSD liquidity on the XRP Ledger, and later phases plug into the ledger’s native lending features once they are fully operational.

This is part of a steady build-out. On October 12, Standard Chartered launched institutional custody for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, working with Ripple and LMAX Group to make RLUSD eligible collateral for certain LMAX products. DriveWealth plans RLUSD settlement across its European operations, with expansion into the United States, including RLUSD minting and redemption on the XRP Ledger. Meritz Securities will explore digital asset custody and tokenization in South Korea as the country develops its regulatory framework.

RLUSD is growing on the XRP Ledger. As of October 3, RLUSD supply stood at $2.51 billion, with $1.24 billion, or 49%, issued on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger total $278 million of distributed, transferable investor float, alongside $4.06 billion of platform-locked registry notionals. The ledger has 8.25 million accounts.

For the price, ecosystem growth works slowly. None of the partnerships commit to specific XRP purchases or transaction volumes. XRP’s role in fees and reserves creates real but small demand per transaction. The value of the build-out is that it gives XRP a use case beyond speculation, which can support the price over years. In the near term, it helps explain why XRP holds up better than other large-cap tokens, but it doesn’t offset macro selling on its own.

Ripple’s Escrow: 31.40 Billion XRP Locked and Up to 1 Billion Released on November 1

Ripple’s escrow is XRP’s main structural supply variable. As of October 21, 31.54 billion XRP sat in escrow on the XRP Ledger, of which 31.40 billion belonged to Ripple, spread across 98 escrow entries in eight Ripple accounts over 32 release dates. Ripple also holds 4.1 billion XRP in unlocked wallets. Total supply stands at 99.986 billion XRP, slightly below the 100 billion cap because fees are burned.

The release mechanism is predictable. Ripple can unlock up to 1 billion XRP each month. On October 1, it released 1 billion XRP in four transfers of 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million. Historically, Ripple returns 700 million to 800 million XRP to escrow within days, using the rest for operations, ecosystem programs and other activities. After the October release, escrow holdings stood at 31.845 billion, then fell to 31.68 billion by October 3 and 31.40 billion in Ripple’s portion by October 21.

The next unlock window opens November 1. Up to 1 billion XRP, worth $1.325 billion at the current price, becomes available. If Ripple follows its usual pattern, 200 million to 300 million XRP would stay out of escrow, worth $265 million to $398 million. That is new supply the market has to absorb each month. At XRP’s daily volume of $1.93 billion, the absorption is manageable, but it adds a steady source of sell-side supply that most other large tokens don’t have.

Exchange balances add to the picture. Tracked exchanges held 20.30 billion XRP as of October 3, nearly a third of circulating supply. That’s a large pool of liquid tokens available to sell. Whale transfers to exchanges earlier this month added to concerns about supply.

For the forecast, the escrow schedule creates a monthly rhythm. Releases on the first of each month add supply, and the price often softens in the days that follow. With November 1 nine days away, the next unlock lands during a crowded macro week that includes the Fed’s October 28 decision. Escrow alone doesn’t move XRP far, but it adds weight to any selling that’s already happening.

The Macro Squeeze: Brent at $111.99, a 5.04% 10-Year Yield and the October 28 Fed Decision

The macro backdrop is hurting every crypto asset, including XRP. Brent crude rose $3.17, or 2.91%, to $111.99 after a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field, and touched $112.68, its highest since May 18. Brent is up 80% this year during the U.S.-Iran war. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which keeps the Federal Reserve tightening and pushes investors away from risk assets.

The Fed holds a 3.75%–4.00% range after its September hike. It meets October 27–28, with markets pricing a 16% chance of a hike next week and a 90% chance by December. On October 15, hotter U.S. inflation data sent Bitcoin below $81,000 and dragged the entire crypto market lower. Another hot inflation print or a hawkish Fed would hit XRP through the same channel.

Equities are setting the tone. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.06% and the S&P 500 1.08% on Thursday as the AI trade unwound. Meta fell 5.95% after posting its first negative free cash flow, and Lam Research dropped 8.4%. Crypto has traded as a high-beta extension of the Nasdaq all month. XRP’s lower correlation with tech stocks, compared with Bitcoin and Ether, is part of its relative strength, but it still moves with the overall risk tone.

Treasury yields offer little help. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 11.3 basis points to 5.036%, a one-month low, as investors bought bonds during the equity selloff. Falling yields usually help crypto, but this drop reflects haven demand, not easier Fed policy. The dollar index bounced from a three-week low of 101.45 to 101.85. Gold fell 1.88% to $4,062.30, so even traditional havens aren’t drawing inflows.

For XRP, the macro checklist is negative across the board. Oil is high, the Fed is leaning hawkish, equities are falling and havens aren’t attracting money. XRP’s relative strength helps it lose less than Bitcoin and Ether on days like Thursday, but a broad crypto breakdown would still pull it lower. The token needs the macro backdrop to stabilize before its fundamental story can lift the price.

XRP Versus Bitcoin and Ether: The Relative-Strength Case

XRP’s relative performance this week is the clearest bullish signal. On Wednesday, XRP rose 4.96% while Bitcoin gained 2.28% and Ether 2.44%. On Thursday, XRP fell 1.5% to 2.4% while Bitcoin dropped 2.54% and Ether 4.56%. XRP outperformed on the way up and held up better on the way down, which is the pattern of an asset with independent demand.

The longer view is weaker. XRP trades 63.8% below its all-time high of $3.65, set July 18, 2025. Bitcoin is 35.4% below its record, and Ether 51.6% below. Over 12 months, XRP is down 44.8%, against 24% for Bitcoin and 37% for Ether. Since the start of 2026, XRP is down 27.2% from its $1.82 close on December 31, 2025. Bitcoin is down 6.9% from its 2026 open, and Ether is down 19.3%. XRP’s long-term performance has been the worst of the three.

The 2026 path explains the drawdown. XRP fell from $1.82 at the start of the year to $1.34 by March 31 and $1.04 by June 30, as the war-driven risk-off move hit speculative assets hardest. It rallied to a September peak near $1.66 as ETF inflows ran for 13 straight weeks. It traded at $1.49–$1.51 at the start of October and has slid since, to $1.40 on October 10, $1.30 in mid-October and $1.27 on October 18.

Liquidity and leverage explain the short-term outperformance. XRP’s derivatives market is far smaller than Bitcoin’s and Ether’s, with 24-hour liquidations of $6.17 million against $110 million for Bitcoin and $95.02 million for Ether. Less leverage means fewer forced sellers when prices fall. That protects XRP on risk-off days, but it also means less fuel for squeezes on the way up.

For the forecast, the relative-strength pattern argues that XRP will hold up better than Ether if crypto keeps falling, and possibly better than Bitcoin. It doesn’t argue that XRP will rise while the rest of the market falls. Pair traders may see XRP as a relative long against Ether. Outright buyers need the broader market to turn.

The $1.26–$1.30 Floor: October’s Defense Zone and the $1.04 Reference Below

The support structure is close to the current price. The first level is $1.30, where XRP traded in mid-October and found buyers. The next level is $1.26, the October 18 24-hour low, when XRP traded as low as $1.26 with a high of $1.30 and closed near $1.27. Those two levels form a $1.26–$1.30 support zone. XRP at $1.325 is 1.9% above $1.30 and 4.9% above $1.26.

The zone has held during October’s weakest sessions. On October 15, when hot U.S. inflation data hit and Bitcoin fell below $81,000, XRP traded near $1.30. On October 18, when the market was at its October lows, XRP dipped to $1.26 and recovered. Each test drew buyers, and the October 21 rally to $1.40 started from that zone.

Below $1.26, the chart opens up. The next major reference is $1.04, the June 30 price that marked XRP’s 2026 low area, 21.5% below the current price. There are few tested levels in between. A break below $1.26 on a daily close would likely trigger selling from ETF holders and leveraged longs, with $1.20 and $1.10 as intermediate psychological levels.

The ETF cost basis adds weight below current prices. With $1.80 billion of cumulative inflows and $1.47 billion in assets, the average ETF buyer is underwater by 18%. If XRP falls further, the paper losses grow, and some ETF holders may sell to cut losses. That risk sits mostly above the current price, where most ETF buying took place, but a breakdown could turn passive holders into active sellers.

For traders, the $1.26 level is the line. Holding it keeps XRP in its $1.26–$1.40 October range. Breaking it on a daily close opens a path toward $1.04 that has few obstacles. With Bitcoin near its own $80,000 floor, both assets are testing support at the same time, which raises the stakes.

Resistance Map: $1.36, $1.40 and the $1.49–$1.51 Early-October Zone

Overhead supply starts close. The first resistance is $1.36, Wednesday’s evening close, 2.6% above the current price. Above that sits $1.40, the October 10 price and Wednesday’s intraday high. That level stopped the October 21 rally. A daily close above $1.40 would be the first since October 10 and would signal a break from the October downtrend.

The $1.49–$1.51 zone is the next target. XRP traded at $1.51 on September 30 and $1.49 on October 1 after Ripple’s 1 billion XRP escrow release. That zone marks the start of October’s decline. Reaching it would require a 12.5% to 14% rally from the current price. ETF buyers who entered in late September and early October would be close to breaking even there, which makes it a likely area for profit-taking.

The September peak near $1.66 is the larger target. XRP hit that level during the late-September ETF inflow surge, with $20 million of inflows on September 22 and $22.6 million on September 25. It sits 25.3% above the current price. Getting back there would require a return of steady ETF inflows and a broad crypto rally.

The year’s starting level is far above. XRP closed 2025 at $1.82. Reclaiming that level would erase 2026’s losses but would require a 37.4% rally. The March 31 price of $1.34 sits just above the current level and marks the first-quarter close, a minor reference point.

For traders, the risk-reward from current levels is balanced. The distance to $1.26 is $0.065, or 4.9%. The distance to $1.40 is $0.075, or 5.7%. Below $1.26, the next support is 21.5% lower. Above $1.40, the next resistance is 6.4% higher at $1.49. That asymmetry, with a bigger gap below than above, argues for caution until XRP breaks out of its October range.

XRP Ledger Fundamentals: 8.25 Million Accounts, $2.51 Billion RLUSD and $278 Million in Tokenized Assets

The XRP Ledger’s activity is growing even as the price falls. The ledger had 8.25 million accounts as of October 21. Thirty-five validators sat on the default lists of the XRPL Foundation and Ripple, one of them under Ripple’s domain. The validator structure is more concentrated than Bitcoin’s or Ethereum’s, a common criticism, but it supports fast, low-cost settlement for payment use cases.

RLUSD is the ledger’s main growth engine. RLUSD supply reached $2.51 billion as of October 3, with $1.24 billion, or 49%, issued on the XRP Ledger. That’s close to half of a fast-growing stablecoin running on XRP’s chain. Ripple burned 15 million RLUSD in a treasury move earlier this month, part of normal supply management. Every RLUSD transaction on the XRP Ledger requires XRP for fees, and every account needs an XRP reserve.

Tokenized real-world assets are a smaller but growing segment. The XRP Ledger hosts $278 million of distributed, transferable tokenized assets, along with $4.06 billion of platform-locked registry notionals. Those include tokenized treasuries, money-market funds and other financial instruments. Institutional custody from Standard Chartered and partnerships with DriveWealth and Meritz expand the potential user base for tokenized products.

Payment volume is the long-term driver. Arf’s $10 billion in annual settlement volume, if a meaningful share moves to RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, would add steady transaction activity. Ripple’s payment network serves banks and payment firms in many countries. As more of those flows settle in RLUSD on XRPL, demand for XRP as a fee and reserve asset grows.

For the price forecast, these fundamentals set a slow-moving floor. XRP’s market cap of $83.69 billion is far larger than the value of activity on the ledger today, so most of the price is still driven by speculation and macro flows. But the fundamentals explain why XRP has held up better than other large tokens this week and why long-term holders keep accumulating during drawdowns.

Key Dates: Fed on October 28, Ripple’s Escrow Unlock on November 1, ETF Flows Daily

The calendar for XRP is crowded. The Fed decides October 28, with a 16% chance of a hike priced in and a 90% chance by December. A hawkish surprise would hit all crypto. A dovish hold would give crypto room to rally. XRP’s relative strength would matter more in a rally than in a selloff, because lower leverage means less squeeze fuel but steadier gains.

November 1 brings Ripple’s next escrow unlock. Up to 1 billion XRP becomes available, with 200 million to 300 million typically staying out of escrow. The release lands three days after the Fed decision and on the same day as the OPEC+ meeting. Supply news usually has a modest effect on XRP, but in a weak market, it can add to selling pressure.

ETF flows come out daily. A string of inflows into the Bitwise, Canary, Grayscale and other XRP funds would confirm that the 13-week streak’s end was a pause. Continued zero-flow days or outflows would confirm that ETF demand has stalled. Daily data for October 21 and 22 will show whether Wednesday’s rally drew any new ETF money.

Ripple’s institutional pipeline continues. The Arf partnership’s first phase, direct RLUSD liquidity on XRPL, starts the rollout. DriveWealth’s European RLUSD settlement and Standard Chartered’s custody add more users. Each new partnership supports the fundamental case but typically has little immediate price effect.

Bitcoin’s $80,000 level matters for XRP too. Bitcoin has tested the $80,000–$81,250 support band four times in October. A break below $80,000 would likely pull XRP below $1.26. A recovery above $84,808 would likely carry XRP above $1.40. XRP’s relative strength helps, but its direction still follows Bitcoin’s.

XRP Forecast Scenarios: $1.26–$1.40 Base Range, $1.04 Downside Target, $1.66 Upside

The base case is a range between $1.26 and $1.40 through the Fed decision and the November 1 escrow release. The $1.26–$1.30 support zone has held through October’s worst sessions, Ripple’s RLUSD partnerships support the fundamental case, and XRP’s lower leverage limits forced selling. Those factors support the low end. Underwater ETF holders, Ripple’s monthly escrow supply, Brent above $110 and a hawkish Fed cap rallies near $1.40. Expect XRP to swing inside that 11% range.

The bear case triggers on a daily close below $1.26. That would break October’s support and open a path to $1.04, the June 30 level, 21.5% below the current price. The likely triggers are a Bitcoin break below $80,000, a hawkish Fed surprise, Brent pushing toward $120 or the start of real ETF outflows as holders cut losses. The November 1 escrow release would add supply at a bad time if the breakdown came near month-end.

The bull case needs a daily close above $1.40. That would end October’s downtrend and open $1.49–$1.51, the early-October zone, followed by $1.66, September’s peak, 25.3% above the current price. The triggers would be renewed XRP ETF inflows, a broad crypto rally led by Bitcoin reclaiming $84,808, a dovish Fed and continued RLUSD growth on the XRP Ledger. A break above $1.66 would put the $1.82 year-start level in view.

The risk-reward is slightly skewed to the downside. From $1.325, the move to $1.26 is 4.9% and the move to $1.40 is 5.7%, a roughly symmetric near-term range. But the gap below $1.26 is larger than the gap above $1.40, and the macro backdrop favors sellers. XRP’s relative strength makes it the better-positioned large-cap token in a falling market, but not a reason to buy aggressively until the range breaks.

On positioning, buying near $1.26–$1.30 with a stop below $1.24 offers a defined-risk entry in the range. Selling near $1.40 makes sense until XRP closes above it. A daily close above $1.40 would confirm the bull case and justify targeting $1.49–$1.51.

XRP Verdict: Neutral Near Term in a $1.26–$1.40 Range, With the Best Relative Strength Among Large-Cap Tokens

The near-term verdict on XRP is neutral with a slightly bearish macro tilt. XRP-USD trades at $1.325, down 1.5% to 2.4% over 24 hours, after Wednesday’s 4.96% rally to a one-week high near $1.40. It is holding up better than Bitcoin, down 2.54%, and Ether, down 4.56%, which makes it the strongest of the large-cap crypto assets on a risk-off day. Market cap stands at $83.69 billion.

The fundamental story is improving. Ripple and Arf announced RLUSD settlement liquidity on the XRP Ledger for payment firms on Thursday, with XRP covering transaction fees and reserves. Standard Chartered launched RLUSD custody on the XRP Ledger. DriveWealth and Meritz Securities expanded Ripple’s institutional reach in Europe and South Korea. RLUSD supply reached $2.51 billion, with 49% on the XRP Ledger, and the ledger has 8.25 million accounts.

The flow story is stalled. Spot XRP ETFs have $1.80 billion in cumulative inflows but only $1.471 billion in assets, which leaves the average buyer 18% underwater. The funds posted their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks, $1.84 million for the week ending October 16, and recorded zero flows on October 19 and 20. Ripple holds 31.40 billion XRP in escrow and can release up to 1 billion on November 1. XRP remains 63.8% below its $3.65 all-time high and down 27.2% for 2026.

The forecast sets a base range of $1.26 to $1.40, a $1.04 downside target on a daily close below $1.26, and a $1.66 upside target on a daily close above $1.40. The deciding inputs are Bitcoin’s $80,000 floor, the Fed’s October 28 decision, the November 1 escrow release and whether XRP ETF inflows return. Until the range breaks, XRP is a relative-strength play inside a weak crypto market, best bought near $1.26–$1.30 and sold near $1.40, with RLUSD’s growth giving long-term holders a reason to stay patient.

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