XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD $3.03 Holds as SEC ETF Rulings, Whale Buys, and Fed Cuts Set October Stage

Ripple XRP (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: ETF Momentum, Whale Buying, and Technical Breakouts Define October

XRP-USD Stabilizes Around $3.00 as Market Eyes SEC ETF Decisions

XRP-USD is trading at $3.03, up nearly 3% in the past 24 hours, following a powerful rebound from its $2.69 support level. The token’s market capitalization has climbed to $176 billion, with 24-hour volumes topping $6.13 billion, a 20.7% increase that highlights liquidity returning to the order books. The price action is being fueled by speculation over upcoming spot XRP ETF rulings, with the SEC set to decide on six applications between October 18 and October 25.

This October calendar has become a pivotal driver for XRP, as approvals could unlock $5–$8 billion in inflows, while ETF sponsors have pitched vehicles with potential assets under management scaling to $100 billion. Early precedent is already in place: the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) launched on September 18, debuting at $25.83 before settling at $24.23, a modest start but one that confirmed U.S. regulatory appetite.

ETF Pipeline and Institutional Demand Could Be a Game Changer

The XRP ETF queue includes issuers like Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, each proposing different products ranging from spot exposure to leveraged strategies. Analysts argue that even partial approvals would increase participation from retirement accounts, family offices, and registered investment advisors that currently cannot allocate to XRP directly.

If inflows match early Bitcoin ETF performance, XRP could see its cup-and-handle breakout pattern extend well beyond immediate targets. Technical analysis places the breakout trigger at $3.60, which once flipped into support could clear the path to $7.50, representing a 165% move. If TradFi demand truly scales toward $100 billion, longer-term scenarios of $10 to $15 (a 430% increase from current levels) move into play.

Whale Accumulation and On-Chain Trends Reinforce the Bull Case

On-chain data from Santiment confirms that deep-pocketed investors are positioning ahead of ETF outcomes. Wallets holding between 10M–100M XRP added 340 million tokens in two weeks, worth nearly $1 billion, raising their collective holdings close to 8 billion XRP. Historically, such synchronized whale buying has preceded sharp upward moves in the asset.

Additional cost-basis data from Glassnode highlights $2.75–$2.80 as a crucial accumulation zone. Over 4.3 billion XRP were acquired in that band, creating a foundation of strong hands unlikely to sell below that level. As long as XRP holds $2.95–$2.99, analysts argue the bullish structure remains intact.

Technical Structure: Cup-and-Handle Meets Descending Triangle Compression

XRP’s chart signals present a rare confluence. On the one hand, the token is finalizing a 10-month cup-and-handle pattern, a bullish setup that typically ends in large percentage expansions. On the other, short-term trading shows a descending triangle, with support defended repeatedly at $2.80 and compression now forcing a breakout decision.

Indicators confirm momentum is leaning positive. The RSI reclaimed the 50 neutral line, printing at 52, signaling that buyers control the near-term tape but still have room before hitting overbought thresholds. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram flipped positive last week, and the MACD line is about to cross above the signal — a classic golden cross that has historically signaled multi-week rallies in XRP.

Resistance is stacked at $3.18, $3.33, and $3.50, with the decisive line at $3.60. If the market clears that barrier, the pattern’s measured move suggests $7.50, while failure at that line could send XRP back to $2.60 or even $2.20 in a bearish reversal.

Macro Environment and Bitcoin Correlation

Macro dynamics also add fuel. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged above $118,200, up 5% in September and now testing the $124,474 all-time high. Historical data from CoinGlass shows that after a positive September, Bitcoin averages 53% Q4 gains, implying a year-end run toward $170,000. If BTC accelerates, XRP — which has lagged — could see a liquidity rotation, especially as traders look for “catch-up” plays in altcoins.

U.S. monetary policy strengthens this narrative. Inflation is converging toward the 2% Fed target, and markets price in a 99% chance of an October rate cut to the 3.75%–4.00% range. Lower rates, combined with a government shutdown freezing economic data releases, have driven investors into risk assets, giving digital tokens like XRP another momentum tailwind.

New Entrants: Remittix Buzzes but XRP Retains Institutional Edge

Speculators are also comparing XRP’s ETF-driven path to Remittix (RTX), a new DeFi project raising $26.8 million with 673 million tokens sold at $0.1130 each. Remittix aims to disrupt the $190 trillion remittance market with a wallet supporting 40+ cryptos and 30+ fiat currencies. Its CertiK verification and upcoming BitMart and LBank listings highlight strong community traction.

While retail interest gravitates toward RTX’s promise of 4,000% upside, institutions remain squarely focused on regulated pathways. That is why XRP’s ETF pipeline — legitimized under SEC review — remains the defining story for October.

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