XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Slips to $2.84 as $68.6M Outflows Test Ripple ETF Buzz and $2.80 Support Zone

XRP-USD struggles at $2.84 despite ETF approvals and long-term holder support

XRP-USD trades at $2.84, slipping -5.7% on the day and -9.3% over the past week, as the token fails to sustain momentum despite multiple ETF approvals. The launch of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF and REX-Osprey’s XRP ETF, which registered $24 million in day-one volume, did not stop $68.6 million in recent outflows. The inability to hold the $3.00 mark reflects fragile investor confidence, keeping XRP locked near its $2.80 demand zone.

Long-term holders cushion downside as on-chain metrics flash restraint

Glassnode data shows XRP’s Liveliness indicator at a two-month low, confirming supply from long-term holders (LTHs) is barely moving. This suggests accumulation rather than distribution, a stabilizing factor at current levels. LTH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) also sits below the 0.7 threshold that historically triggers heavy selling. With limited realized profits at $2.80–$2.90, major holders are not exiting, providing a floor against a deeper collapse.

ETF buzz fails to overpower liquidation-driven pressure

Despite ETF-related optimism, XRP’s short-term technical picture remains bearish. Heavy liquidations earlier this week pushed the price from $2.99 to $2.82, with RSI dropping to 38, just above oversold levels. The 30-day moving average at $2.89 now acts as resistance, while traders eye critical support at $2.80. A sustained breakdown risks losses toward $2.70 and $2.64, while reclaiming $2.94 and $3.02 would revive bullish sentiment.

Derivatives markets highlight speculative imbalance favoring bulls

On Binance, 77% of accounts hold long positions, versus 23% short, a Long/Short Ratio above 3.0. This skew signals speculative optimism but raises risks of sharp unwinds if sentiment flips. Open interest has grown alongside this positioning, meaning leverage is amplifying moves. While aggressive long dominance shows traders expect XRP to rebound, such imbalance has historically preceded squeezes lower when momentum fades.

Social dominance recovers but hype remains subdued compared to past rallies

Santiment data shows XRP’s social dominance at 2.79%, recovering from monthly lows but far below July’s 11% peak. This rebound indicates improving community interest, though far from euphoric levels that have accompanied past breakouts. Without broad retail frenzy, rallies risk stalling at resistance zones, keeping XRP dependent on institutional and derivatives-driven flows for direction.

Technical setup forms symmetrical triangle as demand zone holds

XRP continues to consolidate around $2.80–$2.85, forming a symmetrical triangle with resistance levels at $3.19 and $3.59. A breakout above these barriers could trigger acceleration toward $3.33, a threshold highlighted by analysts as pivotal. Failure to reclaim momentum leaves bears in control, with downside targets at $2.75, $2.64, and possibly $2.48.

NVT ratio spike raises valuation risks despite bullish positioning

XRP’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio surged to 162, doubling within 24 hours. This indicates market capitalization is expanding far faster than on-chain activity, a red flag for overvaluation. Elevated NVT has historically preceded corrections as speculative capital outruns real adoption. While ETF approvals and RippleNet bank partnerships provide a bullish narrative, on-chain fundamentals suggest short-term overheating.

Macro backdrop: Fed rate cuts fuel risk appetite but volatility remains

The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut added liquidity to risk assets, creating tailwinds for cryptocurrencies. Lower borrowing costs encourage flows into speculative markets, and XRP has historically benefited during easing cycles. Yet, the Fed remains divided: some members push for deeper cuts while others warn inflation risks persist. This uncertainty amplifies volatility across crypto, leaving XRP exposed to sudden swings even if long-term conditions improve.

Verdict on XRP-USD
At $2.84, XRP is at a crossroads. The ETF narrative has failed to break resistance, while long-term holders provide crucial support around $2.80. Technical signals highlight risk of a breakdown toward $2.64 if sentiment weakens, though a clean move above $3.02 would set up recovery toward $3.19–$3.33. With speculative longs dominating derivatives, social activity recovering, and Fed liquidity adding fuel, the setup is volatile. Based on the data, XRP-USD is a Hold — upside to $3.33 exists, but downside risk to $2.64 remains equally strong, making this consolidation zone pivotal.

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