XRP-USD Targets $4.47 Breakout as ETFs, Banks, and Utility Push Price Beyond $2.98

XRP-USD Eyes Explosive Breakout: $3.40 Resistance, $4.47 Chart Targets, and $83 Long-Term Utility Model

Institutional Accumulation and Whale Wallet Growth Drive XRP-USD Rally Past $2.98

Ripple's XRP-USD has posted its strongest weekly rally since November, climbing over 32% in July to reach $2.98, its highest since March. A breakout above the $2.84 resistance level, long considered a ceiling by technical analysts, has triggered a surge in institutional flows. Trading volume surged to $9.44 billion, with whale wallets holding over 1 million XRP hitting a record high, indicating accelerating long-term confidence.

XRP’s momentum coincides with a broader altcoin rotation as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbs past $123,000, redirecting profit-taking flows into assets like XRP. Notably, XRP's market cap has grown by $30 billion in just one week, reclaiming its spot as the third-largest cryptocurrency globally.

ETF Momentum and Grayscale Listing Signal New Era for XRP-USD

The approval of Grayscale’s XRP inclusion into its Digital Large Cap Fund marked a return of institutional legitimacy following regulatory clarity in the U.S. Additionally, 10 XRP spot ETF applications are pending with U.S. regulators, with possible approval windows opening in October 2025. Traders anticipate that XRP could follow in Bitcoin’s ETF footsteps, unlocking billions in inflows.

Meanwhile, Ripple's ongoing pursuit of a U.S. national trust bank charter adds regulatory infrastructure for broader institutional adoption. The setup positions XRP for long-term growth, even if short-term volatility persists.

Derivatives and Onchain Metrics Confirm Bullish Bias

Open Interest in XRP futures surged by 12% to $8.3 billion, while daily trading volume exploded 53% to $23 billion, signaling increased leveraged exposure and risk-on behavior. Despite $104 million in weekly outflows from XRP-related investment products, retail and institutional traders continue buying the rally, with derivatives metrics confirming rising conviction.

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) shows XRP entering the “belief–denial” phase, reinforcing sentiment that the rally is still in its middle stages. With 58 billion XRP in profit, elevated exchange inflows could introduce short-term headwinds, but broader sentiment remains firmly risk-on.

Technical Setup Eyes $3.10–$3.40 Breakout, $4.47 Target in Sight

XRP/USDT is forming a compound fulcrum base, a rare bullish continuation pattern identified by veteran chartist Peter Brandt. The pattern points to a potential 60% surge, targeting $4.47 in coming months.

Short-term, XRP must clear the $2.94–$2.95 resistance zone, with upside targets at $3.10, $3.40, and longer-term Fibonacci projections at $4.35–$4.47. The Money Flow Index (MFI) stands at 92, and RSI at 84, both indicating overbought conditions, yet price continues to trend higher. The structure remains bullish unless XRP breaks below $2.84, which now acts as strong support.

XRP Utility Models Project Long-Term Upside to $8–$83

Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform, now branded as Ripple Payments, uses XRP as a bridge asset for real-time cross-border settlements. If adopted widely by the global banking system, several pricing models suggest dramatic upside:

• If XRP captures 10% of SWIFT’s $150 trillion annual volume, and velocity of 3 is assumed, XRP would require a circulating value of $5 trillion, implying a price of $83.33 per token (based on 60 billion circulating supply).

• A more modest scenario with 5% of the $200 trillion cross-border market, using 5x velocity, would support $33.33 per XRP.

• If 1,000 global banks each held $500 million in XRP for liquidity purposes, the network would support a $500 billion reserve base, putting XRP at $8.33.

All models emphasize velocity of money as a core variable — the higher the token turnover rate, the lower the required per-token price. Still, the utility thesis suggests XRP remains significantly undervalued.

Altcoin Rotation, Bitcoin Impact, and Macro Conditions

The XRP surge comes amid a broader altcoin rally fueled by Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000, with some forecasts placing BTC near $200,000 by year-end. As profits rotate into altcoins, XRP has emerged as a top beneficiary. Meanwhile, Ethereum breached $3,000, and Dogecoin rallied past $0.20, affirming risk appetite.

Crypto sentiment has flipped bullish, with the Fear & Greed Index surging from 40 to 70 in three weeks. That said, rising greed often precedes short-term volatility. Total investment inflows hit $3.7 billion last week, second only to historic bull runs, suggesting institutional capital remains engaged.

Verdict on XRP-USD: Bullish Bias With $3.40–$4.47 in Play, $8–$83 Long-Term Case Alive

All technical, fundamental, and macro indicators align toward a bullish medium-term case for XRP-USD. With ETF anticipation, whale accumulation, compound fulcrum base patterns, and usage-based models projecting multibillion-dollar demand, the token is structurally positioned for upside. In the near term, traders should monitor $2.84 support and $3.10–$3.40 breakout zones, with upside risk extending toward $4.47. Long-term investors focused on real-world utility should keep the $8–$33–$83 valuation models in sight.

Rating: STRONG BUY

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