XRPI ($7.00) and XRPR ($10.74) Slide Toward 52-Week Lows as Spot XRP ETF Flows Stall at $708,510

The Volatility Shares XRP ETF (XRPI) is trading at $7.00, down $0.45, or 6.04%, at 2:03 p.m. ET. It opened at $7.11, touched a high of $7.12 and has traded as low as $7.00, its session low. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) traded at $10.74 at 11:17 a.m. ET, down $0.60, or 5.29%, from Wednesday’s $11.34 close, after opening at $10.73. Both funds are giving back Wednesday’s gains and more.

The size of the drop needs explaining. XRP itself trades at $1.325, down 1.53% over 24 hours, with a market value of $83.69 billion. The ETFs show larger losses because they measure from Wednesday’s 4 p.m. ET close, when XRP traded near its $1.40 session high. XRP briefly broke above its 20-day moving average at $1.40 on Wednesday before sellers pushed it back to $1.36 by the end of the UTC day. Measured from that U.S. afternoon peak, XRP’s slide to roughly $1.31 equals about 6%, which is what XRPI and XRPR are showing.

The argument of this forecast is that XRPI and XRPR are the high-beta, low-liquidity corner of a stalled XRP ETF market. Neither is a standard spot XRP trust. XRPI holds CME XRP futures, and XRPR is a 1940 Act fund that gets exposure through a Cayman subsidiary. Both are small, with assets measured in tens of millions against the $1.574 billion held by spot XRP ETFs. Both are trading near their 52-week lows. The money that moves XRP’s price runs through the spot funds, and those flows have dried up. Spot XRP ETFs took in just $708,510 on October 21 after two straight days of zero flows and a $2.5 million outflow on October 16.

That leaves XRP without its main structural buyer. Ripple’s ecosystem keeps expanding: on October 22, it announced a partnership with Arf to provide RLUSD settlement liquidity on the XRP Ledger for payment firms handling $10 billion a year. But partnership news hasn’t lifted the price, and ETF demand has slowed sharply from late September, when spot funds took in $20 million on September 22 and $22.6 million on September 25.

The levels map directly from XRP. XRPI’s support sits near $6.73, matching XRP at its $1.26 October low. XRPR’s matching support sits near $10.25. Resistance sits at $7.45 for XRPI and $11.34 for XRPR, Wednesday’s closes, matching XRP near $1.40. The 52-week lows of $5.42 for XRPI and $8.10 for XRPR mark the summer bottom.

XRPI: A Futures-Based XRP Fund at $7.00, 56% Below Its 52-Week High

XRPI works differently from the spot XRP ETFs. The Volatility Shares XRP ETF launched on May 22, 2025, on Nasdaq. It’s an actively managed fund that gains XRP exposure through near-term CME XRP futures and XRP-linked instruments. It doesn’t hold XRP directly. In June, CME XRP futures made up 51.43% of the portfolio, with cash and other assets making up most of the rest.

The futures structure has costs. When the price of next month’s XRP futures contract sits above the current month’s, the fund loses money each time it rolls its position forward. That roll cost means XRPI can lag spot XRP over long periods even when XRP’s price is flat. The fund’s expense ratio is listed at 0.94%, well above the 0.34% charged by Bitwise’s spot XRP ETF.

XRPI’s price history shows the 2026 drawdown. The fund’s 52-week range runs from $5.42 to $16.06. At $7.00, it trades 56.4% below its 52-week high and 29.2% above its low. Earlier in the year, its 12-month range had reached as high as $23.53, reflecting XRP’s peak in 2025. XRPI traded at $7.49 in late March, $7.08 on June 15 after a 12.74% one-day jump and $7.50 at the end of August.

The fund is small. XRPI held $88.28 million in assets in June and $106.49 million at the end of August. That’s about 6% to 7% of the spot XRP ETFs’ $1.574 billion. Its average daily volume in March was about 282,000 shares. Small size and thin trading can widen bid-ask spreads, which adds cost for short-term traders.

XRPI tracks XRP closely on a daily basis. Its Wednesday close of $7.45 implies XRP near $1.39–$1.40, and Thursday’s $7.00 implies XRP near $1.31. The ratio holds at roughly 5.34 XRPI shares per dollar of XRP. Traders can use that to translate XRP levels into XRPI targets.

XRPR: The First U.S.-Listed Spot XRP Exposure, Now at $10.74 Against a $25 Launch Price

XRPR has a different structure. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF launched on September 18, 2025, on the Cboe BZX Exchange at $25.00 a share. REX markets it as the first U.S.-listed ETF offering exposure to spot XRP. It arrived before the standard spot XRP trusts from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton and others, which launched later under the Securities Act of 1933.

XRPR is a 1940 Act fund. It seeks results matching XRP’s performance before fees and expenses, investing directly or through the REX-Osprey XRP Subsidiary, a Cayman Islands entity. It can also hold other exchange-traded products tied to XRP. The fund distributes income through dividends. It charges a 0.75% expense ratio, more than double Bitwise’s 0.34% fee.

The price decline since launch is steep. At $10.74, XRPR trades 57.0% below its $25.00 launch price. Its 52-week range runs from $8.10 to $22.26. It sits 51.8% below its 52-week high and 32.6% above its low. Over its life, the fund has also traded as high as $25.99. XRPR traded at $11.06 in early April, $8.74 in early August and around $8.28 near its summer low.

The fund is small too. XRPR’s market value was about $56.68 million in April and $41.10 million in August. Its assets stood at $42.32 million on one recent measure. Thursday’s thin trading, with a 1-cent range between $10.73 and $10.74 by mid-morning, shows how little volume runs through it.

XRPR also tracks XRP closely. Its Wednesday close of $11.34 implies XRP near $1.39–$1.40, and its $10.74 price implies XRP near $1.32. The ratio holds at roughly 8.13 XRPR shares per dollar of XRP. That makes XRPR a usable proxy for traders who want XRP exposure in a brokerage account.

Spot XRP ETFs: $708,510 on October 21 After Two Days of Zero Flows

The spot XRP ETFs drive the market’s structural demand. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in a net $708,510 on October 21, their first inflow in a week. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ bought $2.25 million of XRP. Bitwise’s XRP ETF lost $1.55 million. The other funds were flat. That followed zero net flows on October 19 and 20 and a $2.5 million outflow on October 16.

The week ending October 16 marked a turning point. The funds posted $1.84 million of net outflows, their first weekly outflow after 13 straight weeks of inflows. Canary’s XRPC shed $2.47 million on October 16. Bitwise’s fund lost $4.56 million across three sessions in the same stretch.

Franklin is the steady buyer. XRPZ took in $14.06 million across three days in that period, even as Bitwise’s fund lost money. XRPZ’s cumulative inflows stand at $515 million. Bitwise’s fund remains the largest, with $683 million of cumulative inflows. Franklin’s steady buying shows some institutional demand persists, but it isn’t enough to offset weakness elsewhere.

The cumulative numbers hold up. Spot XRP ETFs have taken in $1.801 billion of net inflows since launch, and their net assets total $1.574 billion. The gap between inflows and assets means holders are about 12.6% underwater on average, reflecting XRP’s decline since many investors bought. That’s less severe than the 18% loss implied by earlier figures, after XRP’s recovery from its October 18 low.

The slowdown is sharp. Late September brought $20 million on September 22 and $22.6 million on September 25. On October 8, the funds added $8.2 million, and XRP closed at $1.38. It briefly climbed to $1.41 by October 11 before dropping back to $1.34. Each burst of inflows has given XRP only a temporary lift.

XRP’s October: From $1.49 Open to a $1.255 Low and Back to $1.325

XRP has had a weak October. The token opened the month at $1.49. It hit a high of $1.56 on October 2, then fell to a low of $1.255 on October 18. During the week of October 19, it traded between $1.28 and $1.40. At $1.325, it sits 11.1% below its October open and needs a 12% rally over the next nine days to finish the month flat.

The longer-term picture is weak. XRP trades 63.8% below its all-time high of $3.66, set in July 2025. Over 12 months, it’s down 45%, from $2.41. Over 30 days, it’s down 12%, from $1.51. The three-month view is better: XRP is up 20.8% from $1.10, reflecting a summer recovery from deeper lows.

Even a full October recovery wouldn’t repair the damage. If XRP closed October at $1.49, it would match September’s close but still sit about 41% below its October 2025 close. The 2026 decline has been one of the steepest among large crypto assets.

The technical setup favors sellers. On October 21, XRP briefly broke above its 20-day moving average at $1.40 before sellers pushed it back. Both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages sit above the current price. A token trading below both averages is in a downtrend until it reclaims them.

Prediction markets reflect the caution. Traders on one platform priced a 13% chance that XRP would trade above $1.60 at any point in October. They priced contracts on XRP staying above $1.28 for Thursday and Friday afternoons as likely. The market expects XRP to hold in its current range rather than break out.

Ripple’s Ecosystem: Arf, RLUSD and the Disconnect With Price

Ripple’s business keeps growing. On October 22, Ripple announced a partnership with Arf to provide RLUSD settlement liquidity on the XRP Ledger for payment firms. Arf handles $10 billion in annual settlement volume. XRP is used to pay network fees and reserves on the ledger, so more ledger activity creates some demand for XRP.

Other partnerships have followed. On October 12, Standard Chartered began offering institutional custody for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger. DriveWealth is using RLUSD for settlement in Europe and expanding to the U.S. Meritz Securities is providing digital asset custody in South Korea. Ripple says digital asset custody could unlock $80 million to $100 million in profit for a typical regional bank, according to a report it commissioned.

RLUSD supply has grown to $2.51 billion. Of that, $1.24 billion sits on the XRP Ledger and $1.27 billion on Ethereum. Ripple recently burned 15 million RLUSD. The stablecoin’s growth on the XRP Ledger supports the network’s case as a payment and settlement layer.

The disconnect with price is clear. Ripple’s partnerships have expanded steadily through October, yet XRP has fallen from $1.49 to $1.325. The partnerships mostly involve RLUSD, the stablecoin, not XRP itself. XRP benefits indirectly through ledger fees and as a bridge asset, but the direct demand is small relative to XRP’s $83.69 billion market value.

Escrow adds supply. Ripple holds 31.40 billion XRP in escrow and can release up to 1 billion XRP on the first of each month. The next release comes November 1. Ripple has historically returned 700 million to 800 million of each release to escrow, but the monthly unlock remains a source of potential supply that weighs on the price.

Exchange Deposits at a Seven-Month High: A Warning for XRP Holders

On-chain data adds a cautionary signal. The end of the 13-week ETF inflow streak coincided with a seven-month high in tracked XRP transfers to exchange wallets. Large transfers to exchanges often signal that holders plan to sell. Whale transfers to Binance have risen as well.

The timing matters. XRP rose 4.96% to about $1.36 on Wednesday, its one-week high, even as the exchange-deposit data showed rising selling pressure. Holders who moved XRP to exchanges were positioned to sell into rallies. Thursday’s reversal from $1.40 suggests some of that supply hit the market.

Exchange balances affect price directly. When large amounts of XRP sit on exchanges, any rally meets selling from those holders. When XRP moves off exchanges into cold storage or ETF custody, the available supply shrinks, and rallies can extend. Right now, the flow is toward exchanges.

The ETF side shows the same caution. Spot XRP ETFs, which hold XRP in custody and take it off the market, have slowed their buying. With ETF buying slow and exchange deposits high, XRP faces more supply and less demand than it did in September.

For XRPI and XRPR holders, the on-chain data suggests limited upside near term. Both funds track XRP closely, so any selling from exchange holders will hit them directly. A drop in exchange deposits would be a positive signal to watch.

The Macro Backdrop: Bitcoin at $81,523, Brent at $111.99 and the October 28 Fed

XRP is trading with the rest of crypto. Bitcoin fell 2.54% over 24 hours to $81,523, slipping toward its $80,000 floor. Ether dropped 4.56% to $2,395.85. Solana fell 2.88% to $103.85. XRP’s 1.53% decline over 24 hours was among the smallest of the large-cap tokens, but its drop from Wednesday’s U.S. afternoon high was sharper.

The macro drivers are the same across crypto. Brent crude rose 2.91% to $111.99 after a Houthi drone strike near Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield. The Nasdaq fell more than 2% as the AI trade unwound, led by Meta’s 5% drop after its first negative free cash flow. Crypto has traded as a high-beta extension of the Nasdaq all month.

The Fed meets October 27–28. It holds a 3.75%–4.00% range after its September hike. Markets price a 16% chance of a hike next week and a 90% chance by December. A hawkish Fed would hit risk assets, including XRP. A dovish hold would help.

Bitcoin ETF flows contrast with XRP’s. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.0747 billion over October 19–21, while spot XRP ETFs took in just $708,510 over the same three days. Institutional money returning to crypto has gone to Bitcoin first. Alternative tokens like XRP get money only when risk appetite is broad.

For the forecast, XRP depends on Bitcoin holding $80,000. If Bitcoin breaks below that level, XRP will likely test its $1.255 October low. If Bitcoin holds and rebounds, XRP could retest $1.40. XRPI and XRPR will follow in either direction.

Comparing XRPI, XRPR and the Spot Funds: Fees, Structure and Tracking

XRP investors now have a wide menu of products. The spot XRP ETFs, launched under the 1933 Act, hold XRP directly. Bitwise’s XRP ETF, listed on NYSE Arca, charges 0.34% and held 194.9 million XRP at the end of March, with a cost basis of $371.8 million against a fair value of $261.9 million at that time. Franklin’s XRPZ and Canary’s XRPC also hold spot XRP.

XRPR uses a different structure. As a 1940 Act fund investing through a Cayman subsidiary, it can hold XRP directly or other XRP products. It charges 0.75%. It pays distributions. Its 1940 Act status means it’s regulated like a mutual fund, with different rules on leverage, diversification and reporting than the 1933 Act trusts.

XRPI holds futures. As a futures-based fund, it carries roll costs that spot funds don’t. It charges 0.94%. Its structure lets it offer XRP exposure without holding the token, which was important before spot XRP ETFs were approved. Now that spot funds exist, XRPI’s main advantage is its options market and liquidity for some traders.

Fees matter over time. On a $10,000 investment, the annual cost is $34 for Bitwise’s spot fund, $75 for XRPR and $94 for XRPI. Over several years, those differences add up. Long-term XRP investors generally prefer the cheaper spot funds. Short-term traders may use any of them depending on liquidity and options availability.

Tracking is close on a daily basis. XRPI and XRPR both moved 5% to 6% on Thursday, in line with XRP’s move from Wednesday’s U.S. afternoon peak. Over longer periods, XRPI’s futures roll costs and both funds’ higher fees can cause them to lag spot XRP.

Key Levels for XRPI and XRPR: Mapping XRP’s $1.26 Floor and $1.40 Ceiling

The levels for XRPI and XRPR come from XRP. XRP’s first support sits at $1.30, then $1.26, the October 18 low that forms a double bottom with the earlier October test. Below that, the next major level is $1.04, XRP’s June 30 price, 21.5% below the current price.

For XRPI, the mapped levels are clear. XRP at $1.30 equals XRPI near $6.95. XRP at $1.26 equals XRPI near $6.73. XRP at $1.04 equals XRPI near $5.55, close to its $5.42 52-week low. On the upside, XRP at $1.36 equals XRPI near $7.26. XRP at $1.40 equals XRPI near $7.48, close to Wednesday’s $7.45 close.

For XRPR, the levels follow the same pattern. XRP at $1.30 equals XRPR near $10.57. XRP at $1.26 equals XRPR near $10.25. XRP at $1.04 equals XRPR near $8.46, close to its $8.10 52-week low. On the upside, XRP at $1.36 equals XRPR near $11.06. XRP at $1.40 equals XRPR near $11.38, matching Wednesday’s $11.34 close.

Higher resistance sits further away. XRP at $1.49, the October open, equals XRPI near $7.96 and XRPR near $12.11. XRP at $1.66, the September peak, equals XRPI near $8.86 and XRPR near $13.50.

For traders, the 52-week lows matter. XRPI at $7.00 sits 29.2% above its $5.42 low. XRPR at $10.74 sits 32.6% above its $8.10 low. A break below XRP’s $1.26 floor would put both funds on a path toward those lows.

XRP ETF Forecast Scenarios: XRPI $6.73–$7.48, XRPR $10.25–$11.38 Base Range

The base case is a range for XRP between $1.26 and $1.40 through the October 28 Fed decision. That maps to XRPI between $6.73 and $7.48 and XRPR between $10.25 and $11.38. Ripple’s partnerships, Franklin’s steady XRPZ buying and XRP’s relative strength against Ether and Solana support the low end. Stalled spot ETF flows, rising exchange deposits and a weak macro backdrop cap rallies near $1.40.

The bear case triggers on an XRP daily close below $1.26. That would open $1.04, matching XRPI near $5.55 and XRPR near $8.46, close to both funds’ 52-week lows. The triggers would be Bitcoin breaking $80,000, a hawkish Fed, renewed spot ETF outflows or heavy selling from exchange holders. The November 1 escrow release could add supply pressure.

The bull case needs an XRP daily close above $1.40. That would reclaim the 20-day moving average and open $1.49, the October open, matching XRPI near $7.96 and XRPR near $12.11. The triggers would be a return of spot ETF inflows above $10 million a day, a Bitcoin rebound above $84,808, a dovish Fed and measurable XRP demand from Ripple’s new partnerships.

The risk-reward is balanced near term. XRP sits in the lower half of its range, closer to the $1.26 floor than the $1.40 ceiling. XRPI and XRPR at their current levels offer defined-risk entries with stops below the mapped $1.26 levels. But their higher fees and, for XRPI, futures roll costs make them better suited to short-term trades than long-term holds.

On positioning, buying XRPI near $6.95 with a stop below $6.70, or XRPR near $10.57 with a stop below $10.20, offers defined risk in the range. A close above $7.48 for XRPI or $11.38 for XRPR would confirm XRP’s breakout above $1.40.

XRP ETF Verdict: Neutral Near Term as Small Funds Track a Stalled XRP

The near-term verdict on XRPI and XRPR is neutral, with a bearish tilt. XRPI trades at $7.00, down 6.04%, 56.4% below its 52-week high and 29.2% above its low. XRPR trades at $10.74, down 5.29%, 57.0% below its $25.00 launch price and 32.6% above its 52-week low. Both moves reflect XRP’s reversal from Wednesday’s $1.40 U.S. afternoon high to roughly $1.31.

The funds are small corners of a larger market. XRPI, a futures-based fund charging 0.94%, held roughly $88 million to $106 million in assets this year. XRPR, a 1940 Act fund charging 0.75%, held roughly $41 million to $57 million. The spot XRP ETFs hold $1.574 billion, with $1.801 billion of cumulative inflows. The spot funds drive XRP’s structural demand, and their flows have stalled: $708,510 on October 21 after two days of zero flows and a first weekly outflow in 13 weeks.

XRP’s fundamentals are mixed. Ripple’s Arf partnership, Standard Chartered custody and $2.51 billion RLUSD supply show the ecosystem expanding. But XRP trades 11.1% below its October open of $1.49 and 63.8% below its all-time high. Exchange deposits hit a seven-month high, and the November 1 escrow release adds potential supply.

The forecast sets a base range for XRPI between $6.73 and $7.48 and for XRPR between $10.25 and $11.38, matching XRP between $1.26 and $1.40. A break below XRP’s $1.26 floor would push XRPI toward $5.55 and XRPR toward $8.46. A close above $1.40 would open XRPI to $7.96 and XRPR to $12.11. The deciding inputs are Bitcoin’s $80,000 floor, the October 28 Fed decision and whether spot XRP ETF inflows return. Until those flows restart, XRPI and XRPR will track XRP’s range, with higher costs than the spot funds for holders who stay long.

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