XRPR ($10.59) and XRPI ($7.04) Open at Highs and Close at Lows After Senate Kills CLARITY Act

The two U.S.-listed XRP funds with the longest trading records posted their worst session in weeks on Tuesday. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF (BATS: XRPR) closed at $10.59, down $1.33 or 11.18%, and slipped another $0.14 to $10.46 in after-hours trading. The XRP ETF from Volatility Shares (NASDAQ: XRPI) closed at $7.04, down $0.92 or 11.56%, and traded at $7.03 after hours.

The shape of the session tells the story. Both funds gapped lower at the open and never recovered. XRPR opened at $11.70, which was also its high for the day, and closed at its low of $10.59. XRPI opened at $7.78, also its high, and closed 4 cents above its $7.00 low. Two funds opening at their highs and closing at or near their lows is the footprint of continuous selling from the first trade to the last.

The catalyst was Washington. The U.S. Senate rejected the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on Tuesday afternoon, with the cloture motion failing 49 to 50, 11 votes short of the 60 required and short of even a simple majority. Multiple Republicans voted no. The failure effectively ends crypto market structure legislation in the Senate for 2026.

XRP had more riding on the vote than almost any other major digital asset. The token had surged more than 6% on Monday, reaching a high of $1.49, as traders positioned for a legislative surprise. It pulled back to $1.42 in Tuesday's Asian session, traded at $1.39 by 1:22 p.m. ET, down 3.42% over 24 hours, and extended the slide after the vote. The two funds' 11% declines measure XRP's full reversal from Monday's rally through Tuesday's post-vote selloff.

The damage is severe on the longer chart. XRPR sits 59.3% below its 52-week high of $25.99 and 30.7% above its 52-week low of $8.10. XRPI sits 63.2% below its 52-week high of $19.13 and 29.9% above its 52-week low of $5.42. As of June 30, XRPR's market-price return since its September 2025 launch was -65.68%.

The underlying demand story is stronger than the prices suggest. U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded nine consecutive weeks of net inflows through September 11, reaching a record $1.70 billion of cumulative inflows and $1.45 billion of net assets.

The thesis of this analysis is that Tuesday's 11% declines in XRPR and XRPI reflect a legislative repricing of XRP, not a collapse in institutional demand, and whether the spot XRP ETF inflow streak survives the vote decides whether these funds retest their Monday closes or slide toward their summer lows.

XRPR: A 40 Act Fund Holding 59.71% Direct XRP

XRPR is structurally different from most spot XRP ETFs, and that difference shapes how it trades.

REX Shares and Osprey Funds launched XRPR on September 18, 2025. It trades on the Cboe BZX Exchange and carries a total expense ratio of 0.75%. The fund operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the framework that governs mutual funds and most ETFs, rather than the Securities Act of 1933 structure used by most spot commodity trusts. That registration path allowed XRPR to reach the market roughly two months before the wave of spot XRP ETFs that launched in mid-November 2025.

The 40 Act structure imposes diversification and custody rules, so XRPR does not hold only XRP. As of September 9, the fund held four positions, with direct XRP accounting for 59.71% of assets, a position worth $30.01 million, according to the issuer's fund page. The remaining 40.29% sits in other holdings that provide XRP price exposure. That mix means XRPR tracks XRP closely but not perfectly.

The fund is small. As of September 9, XRPR held $49.81 million of assets across 4.35 million shares outstanding. Its net asset value stood at $11.55 and its closing price at $11.45, a 0.93% discount to NAV. The median 30-day bid-ask spread was 0.49%, several times wider than the spreads on large spot XRP ETFs.

The discount pattern has shifted through 2026. XRPR traded at a premium on 24 days and a discount on 37 days in the first quarter. In the second quarter, premiums outnumbered discounts 35 to 27. In the third quarter through September 9, the split was 25 premium days and 24 discount days. The recent balance suggests secondary-market demand has stabilized after a weak start to the year.

Its performance record reflects XRP's collapse from the 2025 peak. Through June 30, XRPR returned -20.52% over one month, -22.21% over three months and -42.72% year to date at market price. Since inception, its market-price return stood at -65.68% and its NAV return at -65.81%. The fund hit its maximum drawdown of 65.15% on June 10, 2026.

Flows have been flat recently. XRPR's trailing one-year net inflows total $123.63 million, but six-month flows show $10.01 million of net outflows and three-month flows show $1.71 million of outflows. Investors seeking XRP exposure have increasingly chosen the larger, lower-cost spot funds launched in November.

After Tuesday's close, XRPR's after-hours price of $10.46 was 1.27% below its closing price, which suggests selling pressure continued past 4:00 p.m. ET.

XRPI: The Futures-Based XRP Fund

XRPI takes a third approach to XRP exposure, and its structure carries its own trade-offs.

Volatility Shares launched XRPI on May 22, 2025, making it one of the first U.S.-listed funds tied to XRP. Instead of holding the token directly, XRPI gains exposure through XRP futures contracts. That design allowed it to launch months before spot products because futures-based funds follow a regulatory path the SEC had already approved for Bitcoin and Ether.

XRPI is larger than XRPR. As of August 21, the fund held $86.97 million of net assets, 75% more than XRPR's $49.81 million in early September.

The futures structure creates tracking differences. A futures-based fund must roll expiring contracts into later-dated ones. When later contracts trade at higher prices than near-term contracts, a condition called contango, each roll locks in a small loss. Over months, roll costs can cause a futures fund to lag the spot price of its underlying asset. When later contracts trade at lower prices, backwardation, rolls add a small gain. For crypto futures, contango has historically been the more common condition during bullish or neutral periods.

Futures funds also hold cash collateral against their positions. That collateral earns interest, which partly offsets roll costs. With short-term rates elevated and the Federal Reserve expected to hike on Wednesday, collateral income is higher than it was in 2025.

Tuesday's move shows XRPI tracks XRP closely on a daily basis. Its 11.56% decline was 0.38 percentage points larger than XRPR's 11.18% drop. That gap reflects differences in structure, trading hours and the timing of futures settlement versus spot pricing.

The 52-week range confirms XRPI's sensitivity to XRP's cycle. The fund traded as high as $19.13 during XRP's rally and as low as $5.42 near the summer bottom, when XRP fell below $1 in mid-August. XRPI was quoted at $5.87 in early July. At $7.04, it has recovered 29.9% from its low.

XRPI's intraday range on Tuesday was $0.78, from $7.78 to $7.00, equal to 9.8% of Monday's $7.96 close. That volatility is typical for the fund during event-driven sessions.

For investors comparing the two, XRPR offers more direct XRP exposure through its 59.71% spot holding, while XRPI offers larger assets and futures-based access. Neither is the lowest-cost or most liquid way to own XRP. The large spot funds launched in November hold that position.

The CLARITY Act Fails 49-50: Why XRP Took One of the Hardest Hits

The Senate vote was the direct trigger for both funds' declines, and XRP's regulatory history made it one of the most exposed assets.

The Senate needed 60 votes to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633. The vote failed 49 to 50. Negotiators had produced more than 600 pages of compromise text, but ethics provisions meant to limit senior government officials' crypto business ties proved unbridgeable. Senate Republicans rejected a Democratic counteroffer on Tuesday morning, and prediction-market odds of passage in 2026 had already collapsed to between 11% and 14% before the vote.

XRP's exposure is rooted in its legal history. Ripple's four-year case with the Securities and Exchange Commission ended in August 2025, removing the largest barrier that had kept regulated funds away from the token. That resolution cleared the way for the spot XRP ETFs that launched in November 2025. But a case settlement is not a statute. It depends on the policies of current regulators and can be revisited by future ones.

The CLARITY Act would have provided a permanent answer. The bill would have divided oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and given the CFTC authority over spot markets for digital commodities. For XRP, passage would have further clarified its classification as a commodity and locked in long-term legal certainty that did not depend on a single administration.

That is why XRP rallied hardest going into the vote. XRP surged more than 6% on Monday, reaching $1.49, and on Tuesday morning it was the only large-cap cryptocurrency gaining during European hours. Traders bought regulatory optionality. The vote erased it.

The political timeline raises the stakes. The current Congress ends its session at year-end, and the November 3 midterm elections will determine the next one. If Democrats win a majority in either chamber, crypto legislation would require their support, and committee leadership could shift to lawmakers more skeptical of the industry. Senator Cynthia Lummis had warned that if the bill failed in this Congress, the next realistic window might not arrive until 2030.

A failed vote does not threaten XRP ETFs directly. The funds are already approved and trading, and the SEC case is closed. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said the agency will keep advancing crypto rules without the bill, including its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets. But Atkins has also acknowledged that agency rules are not durable without a law behind them.

For XRPR and XRPI holders, the failure removes the most important upside catalyst of 2026 and replaces it with a longer period of regulatory uncertainty.

The Spot XRP ETF Complex: Nine Green Weeks and $1.70 Billion of Inflows

The broader XRP ETF market provides the strongest counterweight to Tuesday's selloff.

U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched in mid-November 2025, with Canary Capital's XRPC among the first. Seven XRP-linked ETFs now trade in the U.S., including Bitwise's XRP fund, Canary's XRPC, Franklin Templeton's XRPZ, Grayscale's GXRP, 21Shares' TOXR and REX-Osprey's XRPR.

The inflow streak is the key data point. Spot XRP ETFs recorded $18.98 million of net inflows in the week ending September 11, the ninth consecutive week of positive flows. Bitwise's fund led with $9.30 million, lifting its cumulative inflows to $609 million. Franklin Templeton's XRPZ added $6.69 million, bringing its lifetime total to $479 million. Canary's XRPC holds $490 million of cumulative inflows. Combined net assets stood at $1.45 billion, equal to 1.70% of XRP's market capitalization, and cumulative inflows reached a record $1.70 billion.

The streak has held through different market conditions. The prior week delivered $18.96 million, just $20,000 less. The week ending August 28 produced a record $110.49 million, the best week since early December 2025. September month-to-date inflows reached $32.29 million through September 11. During the week of September 8, XRP funds were the only crypto fund category attracting new money while Bitcoin, Ether and Solana products saw outflows.

The gap between cumulative inflows of $1.70 billion and net assets of $1.45 billion shows how much capital arrived at higher prices. A large share of early inflows came in December 2025, when XRP traded well above $1.80. Those investors have held despite losses, a sign of long-term allocation rather than short-term trading.

The comparison with XRPR and XRPI is telling. The large spot funds capture nearly all new XRP ETF demand, while XRPR's six-month flows show $10.01 million of outflows. Institutional investors prefer the lower-cost, higher-liquidity spot products.

Tuesday's flow data, published after the close, is the critical test. A tenth consecutive inflow week would show institutions treating the CLARITY failure as noise. A significant outflow day would signal that part of the recent demand was tied to legislative expectations.

For XRPR and XRPI, the spot complex's flows matter more than their own. Spot fund demand supports XRP's price, and both smaller funds track that price.

Batch V1.1: The Network Catalyst That Survives the Vote

While Washington delivered bad news, the XRP Ledger's own development timeline offers a catalyst independent of legislation.

The Batch V1.1 amendment had support from 27 of 35 trusted validators in Tuesday's snapshot, 77% of the network's voting power. XRP Ledger protocol changes require 80% backing, or 28 votes. One more vote would start a 14-day activation countdown, during which support must remain above the threshold.

Batch lets users combine up to eight related transactions into one atomic operation. All of them succeed together or none of them do. Two parties swapping tokens can ensure both sides complete simultaneously. The same structure applies to customer payments, platform fees and multi-step settlement flows. Ripple's developer team says commercial projects using the feature are already under contract or in development.

The upgrade has overcome a serious setback. The original Batch proposal contained a critical flaw discovered in February that could have allowed signature reuse for unauthorized transactions. That version never reached mainnet, and no funds were at risk. Developers rebuilt the feature with a root-cause fix, senior code review, a public attack contest and two independent security audits. The new version shipped in xrpld 3.3.0 on August 6. A latest review found and fixed 11 additional issues involving signatures, authorization checks and conditions that could crash servers.

The timing matters for XRPR and XRPI holders. If a 28th validator votes yes this week, activation would land around the end of September. A successful activation would strengthen XRP Ledger's case as settlement infrastructure for payments and tokenized assets, where atomic execution is a requirement for institutional use.

Batch also addresses a question the CLARITY failure raised. Without a statutory framework, XRP's investment case depends more heavily on utility and adoption. Features that make the ledger more useful for real payment flows provide a fundamental argument that does not depend on Congress.

The risk is that support stalls. If the vote remains at 27 of 35, activation stays in limbo. If a validator withdraws support during a countdown, the process resets.

For the forecast, Batch V1.1 is a secondary catalyst. It is unlikely to reverse an 11% drop on its own, but a confirmed activation countdown would give XRP a supportive headline in the second half of September.

XRP's Chart: The $1.35 Support Zone and What the ETF Declines Signal

Because XRPR and XRPI track XRP, the token's chart levels are the ones that matter for both funds.

The most important support on XRP's chart is the $1.35 to $1.38 zone. Roughly 3.2 billion XRP changed hands in that range, making it one of the densest cost-basis clusters of the 2026 recovery. The 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages converge at $1.35 to $1.36, and the 200-day simple moving average sits near $1.38. At 1:22 p.m. ET Tuesday, XRP traded at $1.39, one cent above that zone. The 11% declines in XRPR and XRPI measured from Monday's close are consistent with XRP breaking below that support after the vote.

Below $1.35, the support map widens. The $1.26 level is the next major support. Losing $1.22 would open a move toward $1.08, near the June 6 swing low of $1.0935. Beneath that, the $1.00 psychological level and the $0.9877 cycle low from mid-August mark the base of the entire summer recovery.

On the upside, resistance starts at $1.42, where XRP traded early Tuesday. The $1.45 level is next, followed by the $1.51 to $1.52 zone, including the August 23 closing high of $1.5196. The $1.60 level and the $1.70 August 22 intraday high mark the top of the late-summer range. XRP's all-time high of $3.65, set on July 17, 2025, sits far above.

The August pattern shows how fast XRP moves. Between August 19 and 22, XRP surged 70% from $1.00 to $1.70 in less than 72 hours after the U.S. Treasury announced it would expand its bond buyback program. XRP posted a 28.5% gain for August, its best August since 2021. The rejection at $1.70 began a series of lower highs.

Supply adds pressure. On September 1, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP through three scheduled escrow transactions. Ripple historically relocks a large portion of each monthly release, but the potential supply is large relative to ETF demand.

For XRPR and XRPI, the implication is direct. If XRP reclaims $1.35 to $1.38 on a closing basis, both funds have a path back toward their Monday closes of $11.92 and $7.96.If XRP holds below $1.35 and tests $1.26, both funds face another leg lower.

The Fed Decision: The Next Test for XRP ETFs

Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision carries more potential to move XRP, and both funds, than any factor besides Tuesday's vote.

The FOMC opened its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Fed funds futures price an 86.3% probability of a quarter-point hike to 3.75% to 4.00% from 3.50% to 3.75%, the first increase since 2023. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, and August payrolls rose by 162,000. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.041% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007, before settling at 5.005%.

XRP's recent history shows how rates-sensitive it has become. The August 19 to 22 surge from $1.00 to $1.70 began when the Treasury buyback announcement pulled long-end yields lower. The slide from $1.70 back toward $1.40 tracked the rise in the 10-year yield from 4.7% on August 24 to 5.041% on Tuesday.

The dot plot carries the key risk. The June projections pointed to a federal funds rate of 3.8% by the end of 2026, implying one hike. Futures now price two quarter-point increases by December. A median dot showing three hikes would lift real yields and the dollar and pressure every speculative asset, including XRP. A median showing one hike would ease that pressure.

Rates affect the two funds differently. For XRPI, higher short-term rates increase the interest earned on cash collateral backing its futures positions, which partly offsets roll costs. For XRPR, rates matter mainly through XRP's price and secondary-market demand for the fund.

The dollar is another channel. The dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.64 on Tuesday, a nearly two-week high. A firmer dollar historically weighs on crypto priced in dollars and on the cross-border payment corridors where XRP is used as a bridge asset.

The Bank of Japan decides on Friday and is expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25%. A yen-driven dollar pullback late in the week could give XRP some relief.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. Any signal of expanded buybacks would be the most powerful near-term catalyst for XRP, repeating the setup that launched the August rally.

Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday is the most important macro event for both funds this week.

The Macro and Crypto Backdrop: Oil, Yields and a Risk-Off Tape

XRPR and XRPI fell on a day when every macro force pointed against speculative assets.

The oil market added inflation pressure. WTI crude rose 4.60% to $106.06 a barrel on Tuesday afternoon, its highest level in four months, and Brent climbed 3.04% to $108.89. Saudi Arabia informed European refiners that their September crude cargoes were being canceled because its East-West pipeline, the main bypass around the closed Strait of Hormuz, remains shut after a September 11 drone attack. The outage puts 4 million barrels a day, 4% of global supply, at risk. Yemen's Houthis have captured islands controlling Bab el-Mandeb.

Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which push the Fed toward more hikes and lift real yields. That chain has repeatedly pressured crypto assets in September.

The crypto market sold off together. Bitcoin fell to $75,850 after the vote, down 4.2% over 24 hours. Ether dropped 4.57% to $2,417.08 by early afternoon, and Solana fell 3.89% to $99.02. Crypto equities including Coinbase, Circle and Bullish extended losses as the vote count came in.

The equity market was weak but recovered late. The S&P 500 traded down 0.42% in the afternoon and the Dow fell 0.79%, though stocks ended well off their session lows as oil pared some gains. XRPR and XRPI did not share that late recovery, closing at or near their lows, which shows the XRP-specific selling pressure after the vote.

Institutional demand across crypto funds was mixed going into the vote. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $160.04 million on Monday, and spot Ether ETFs added $121 million. Spot Solana ETFs recorded $11.01 million of inflows, extending an 11-week streak. XRP's nine-week streak sits alongside that group.

Options activity signaled caution. Bitcoin's seven-day and 30-day options skews flipped to show puts trading richer than calls, capturing the CLARITY vote, the Fed and the Bank of Japan decision.

The macro backdrop sets a high bar for a rebound. As long as oil stays above $100 and the 10-year yield stays above 5%, speculative assets face headwinds regardless of token-specific news. A Middle East de-escalation or a dovish Fed surprise would change that quickly.

Technical Structure: XRPR $10.59 and XRPI $7.04 Key Levels

Both funds' charts reflect XRP's moves, but their own price levels define entry and risk for traders.

For XRPR, Tuesday's close of $10.59 is also its intraday low. After-hours trading at $10.46 is the first reference below. The $10.00 round number sits 5.6% below the close. The early July level near $8.91, where XRPR traded on July 3, sits 15.9% lower. The 52-week low of $8.10 sits 23.5% below Tuesday's close.

Resistance for XRPR starts at $11.07, where the fund was valued on September 13, 4.5% above the close. The $11.45 September 9 closing price is next, 8.1% higher. Tuesday's open and high of $11.70 sits 10.5% above the close. Monday's close of $11.92 marks the level XRPR must reclaim to erase Tuesday's damage, a 12.6% gain. XRPR rose 7.7% from $11.07 to $11.92 between September 11 and Monday's close as XRP rallied into the vote.

For XRPI, the $7.00 intraday low sits just 4 cents below Tuesday's close. The $6.50 area is the next reference, 7.7% lower. The early July level of $5.87 sits 16.6% below, and the 52-week low of $5.42 sits 23.0% below.

Resistance for XRPI starts at Tuesday's open and high of $7.78, 10.5% above the close. Monday's close of $7.96 sits 13.1% higher.

The symmetry between the two funds is notable. Both need gains of 10.5% to reach Tuesday's opening levels and 12.6% to 13.1% to reclaim Monday's closes. Both sit 23% above their 52-week lows. That alignment shows how closely they track the same underlying asset despite different structures.

The session structure is bearish. Opening at the high and closing at the low is a classic sign of distribution, where sellers dominate throughout. After-hours weakness in XRPR confirmed the pressure continued past the close.

The recovery signal to watch is a gap-up open on Wednesday followed by a close above the open. That would indicate buyers absorbed the post-vote selling. A second consecutive session of opening near the high and closing near the low would suggest the selloff has further to run.

Liquidity matters for both funds. XRPR's median bid-ask spread of 0.49% and average daily volume near 24,500 shares mean large orders can move the price. Limit orders are essential in thinly traded funds during volatile sessions.

Scenario Map: Where XRPR and XRPI Trade After the Fed

The next three sessions produce three realistic paths for both funds, all driven by XRP's price.

The first scenario is the base case. The Fed hikes to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday with a dot plot showing two hikes in 2026, matching market pricing. Tuesday's spot XRP ETF flow data shows modest outflows or flat flows, ending or pausing the nine-week streak without a major reversal. XRP stabilizes between $1.26 and $1.38 as buyers defend the lower end of the range. XRPR trades between $10.00 and $11.07, and XRPI trades between $6.65 and $7.40. A 28th validator vote on Batch V1.1 during this window would add support near the lows.

The second scenario is the recovery. The Fed dot plot shows only one hike this year, and Chair Warsh frames Wednesday's move as a single recalibration. Yields fall back below 5%, the dollar retreats, and spot XRP ETF flows stay positive, extending the streak to ten weeks. XRP reclaims $1.35 to $1.38 and pushes toward $1.45. A 10% XRP rebound would lift XRPR to $11.65 and XRPI to $7.74, near Tuesday's opening levels. A full recovery to Monday's closes of $11.92 and $7.96 would require XRP gains of 12.6% to 13.1%. A Batch V1.1 activation countdown would add momentum.

The third scenario is the breakdown. The Fed dot plot shows three hikes or Warsh signals a sustained tightening cycle, pushing the 10-year yield toward 5.10%. Spot XRP ETFs post significant outflows, and Bitcoin breaks below $75,000. XRP falls toward $1.22 and then $1.08. A further 10% XRP decline would push XRPR to $9.53 and XRPI to $6.34. A 20% decline would take XRPR to $8.47 and XRPI to $5.63, close to their 52-week lows of $8.10 and $5.42.

The probabilities favor the base case. The CLARITY failure was largely priced after odds fell to between 11% and 14% before the vote, and the 11% declines in both funds have already absorbed much of the disappointment. The breakdown scenario carries more weight than the recovery because inflation at 3.4% and oil above $106 tilt the Fed toward a hawkish outcome.

Three variables outside the Fed can shift all three scenarios. A U.S. Treasury buyback expansion, as on August 19, would ignite a rates-driven rally. A Middle East de-escalation sending WTI below $100 would ease the hike path. And a decisive Bitcoin break below $75,000 would drag XRP lower regardless of ETF flows.

XRP ETF Verdict: Neutral-to-Bearish Near Term, $1.35 XRP Decides the Recovery

XRPR at $10.59 and XRPI at $7.04 absorbed the full weight of Tuesday's 49-50 Senate vote that killed the CLARITY Act for 2026. XRPR fell 11.18% and XRPI fell 11.56%, both opening at their highs and closing at or near their lows. The declines erased XRP's Monday rally to $1.49 and are consistent with the token breaking below its $1.35 to $1.38 support zone after the vote. XRP was more exposed than most digital assets because it rallied hardest on hopes that the bill would lock in its commodity classification.

The structural demand picture remains intact for now. Spot XRP ETFs posted nine straight weeks of inflows through September 11, including $18.98 million in the latest week, lifting cumulative inflows to a record $1.70 billion and net assets to $1.45 billion. The XRP Ledger's Batch V1.1 upgrade sits one validator vote from a 14-day activation countdown. Neither factor depends on Congress.

The two funds covered here are niche vehicles within that complex. XRPR, with $49.81 million of assets, a 0.75% expense ratio and 59.71% of its portfolio in direct XRP, trades with a 0.49% median spread and has seen $10.01 million of outflows over six months. XRPI, with $86.97 million of assets, uses futures and carries roll risk. Institutional XRP demand flows mainly into the large spot funds launched in November 2025.

The near-term bias is neutral to bearish into Wednesday's 2:00 p.m. ET Fed statement. The base case is stabilization, with XRPR between $10.00 and $11.07 and XRPI between $6.65 and $7.40. A hawkish dot plot and spot ETF outflows would push both funds toward $9.53 and $6.34, with their 52-week lows of $8.10 and $5.42 as the extended downside.

The recovery case requires XRP to reclaim $1.35 to $1.38 on a closing basis, supported by continued spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed. That path lifts XRPR back to its $11.70 opening level and $11.92 Monday close, and XRPI back to $7.78 and $7.96. Tuesday's flow data for spot XRP ETFs, published after the close, is the first signal: a tenth week of inflows would support the recovery case, and a large outflow would confirm the breakdown. Until the Fed decision is public, XRP's $1.35 level decides the direction for both funds.

That's TradingNEWS